Realistic or pie in the sky? AoT forecasts 330,000 flights and 31 million passengers this year

[webfact]

Realistic or pie in the sky? AoT forecasts 330,000 flights and 31 million passengers this year

 

PIcture: Manager

 

The Airports Authority of Thailand has dramatically reduced its forecast for the numer of flights at its six airports in Thailand for 2021.

 

Yet the figure still suggests that more than 31 million passengers will fly on well over 330,000 flights. 

 

The AoT had a top level board meeting yesterday to look at the aviation sector in Thailand for the next several years, in which their new assessments were revealed, reported Manager. 

 

Only in 2024 were pre-pandemic levels likely to occur.

 

Their forecast for 2021 was now 335,459 flights in and out of Suvarnabhumi, Don Muang, Hat Yai, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Mae Fah Luang in Chiang Rai. 

 

This was 25% lower than their forecast in November last year prior to the second wave of the pandemic in Thailand that has further devastated tourism and the flight sector.

 

The November assessment was itself 62.6% down on 2019.

 

In terms of passenger numbers they are now targeting 31.9 million, that is 33.4% down on November's assessment  which in turn was 77.5% down on 2019. 

 

Predictions for the longer term are 547,226 flights and 73.17 million passengers in 2022, 824,915 flights and 128.85 million passengers in 2023 and 923,925 flights in 2024 with 146.40 million passengers. 

 

Manager said that only in 2024 would they be back to pre-pandemic levels. 

 

While the assessments of 31 million passengers this year include all domestic travel not just international arrivals, many who view the ailing sector with caution will be suggesting that the revised figures are still optimistic, notes Thaivisa. 

 

Media reports have suggested that Thais are still reluctant to travel far afield following the second wave of Covid while international travel remains severly limited compared to previous levels. 

 

Source: Manager

 

 

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[darksidedog]

Laughable. I really don't understand why they persist in coming up with such ridiculous announcements, which are very clearly a pipe dream and nothing more.

[colinneil]

Just now, webfact said:

et the figure still suggests that more than 31 million passengers will fly on well over 330.000, flights.

 

Laughable thats what it is laughable, where on earth do they come up with figures like that?

Who ever is coming up with that nonsense must be taking some serious gear.????????????

[worgeordie]

Just waiting for TAT to come out with even higher numbers....

regards Worgeordie

[ThreeEyedRaven]

I suspect the ganja approval committee and the passenger numbers committee got their meeting rooms mixed up and the cookies thus consumed are reflected with these numbers.

[RotBenz8888]

11 minutes ago, webfact said:

many who view the ailing sector with caution will be suggesting that the revised figures are still optimistic, notes Thaivisa. 

Optimistic? I'd call it delirious. 

[ezzra]

I'd like to have some of the stuff they are smoking....

[foreverlomsak]

Nah, it quite feasible in the flight simulator they use.

Real life is a bit different though.

[mtls2005]

Airlines cancelled these flights eons ago.

 

This is why the boards at SBIA/BKK are so silly with mostly cancelled flights displayed.

 

There must be some bureaucratic/budgetary reason to continue to "carry" these flights?

 

Obviously not as bad as the TG employees faking their own deaths to collect funeral compensation.

 

Still incompetent.

 

[bdenner]

Translation error? Either the acronyms mixed up AOT - TAT or, are the AOT on the same meds/smoking the same dope?

[bluesofa]

23 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Laughable thats what it is laughable, where on earth do they come up with figures like that?

Who ever is coming up with that nonsense must be taking some serious gear.????????????

It's obviously not landing gear.

[Jimbo2014]

28 minutes ago, webfact said:

AoT forecasts 330,000 flights and 31 million passengers this year

 

Now we know what happens to the buds from the 'hemp' and 'medicinal herb' marihuana plantations.  Making its way into AoT planning meetings. ???? 

[Andy from Kent]

 

These government agencies should  end all confusion  and get together and post in a united way.

 

 

[AlfHuy]

Instead of suing people in court when they make a report about a "not so good hotel", someone should sue the government for constantly making false announcements.

 

Fake news.

One goes to prison, the other ones produce them on a daily basis.

[AlfHuy]

Typing error MAYBE?

 

Realistic or pie in the sky? AoT forecasts 330,000 flies and 31 million birds this year

[morrobay]

 

[Dagfinnur Traustason]

We are not talking about a pie here! This is a totally different reality! What has these guys finally found? I thought I´d tried all the drugs in the universe, but know i compell these guys to share the good news. Can it be as good as they have finally been able to create cronical euforia in a neverending world of dreams?

[PatOngo]

3 hours ago, colinneil said:

Laughable thats what it is laughable, where on earth do they come up with figures like that?

Plucked them straight out of the wazoo! I thought they were a bit conservative, 35 million has a better ring to it!

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

While the assessments of 31 million passengers this year include all domestic travel not just international arrivals, many who view the ailing sector with caution will be suggesting that the revised figures are still optimistic, notes Thaivisa. 

Is it realistic to assume they can find 30,998,000 domestic passengers ?

[bkk6060]

I am in BKK now.

If one thought Pattaya was bad, what a fricken ghost town.  Sky train empty when I took it.  If anyone cares, all of Nana and surrounding area is boarded up.  There were some people at the mall, but not many.  Many of the MBK shops I would go to are gone.  Just walking around other areas the buzz of this place is empty.

On and on.  Sad to see the GDP must currently be way way negative probably in a state of depression.

 

To add, where the H is our vaccine?  Step beyond the 3rd world and set an example instead of wasting time.

For what??

 

 

[scorecard]

4 hours ago, worgeordie said:

Just waiting for TAT to come out with even higher numbers....

regards Worgeordie

Then forecasts of hundreds of thousands of condos being sold by end of year. 

[craigieboy1973]

I understand where all the yabba pills have gone now 

[mlmcleod]

The headline says it all!  If the Thai government is really using these figures there will be a severe misapplication of human and financial resources throughout the rest of the year.

[Cake Monster]

6 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Laughable. I really don't understand why they persist in coming up with such ridiculous announcements, which are very clearly a pipe dream and nothing more.

They are clearly smoking something in the Pipe to dream on, thats for sure.

[madmitch]

The exactness of the figures provided makes me think these numbers have been produced by some new maths graduate with a pocket calculator rather than something backed up by extensive research.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Realistic or pie in the sky? AoT forecasts 330,000 flights and 31 million passengers this year

With no vaccine until Q3 it's fake news.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, ThreeEyedRaven said:

I suspect the ganja approval committee and the passenger numbers committee got their meeting rooms mixed up and the cookies thus consumed are reflected with these numbers.

An extra portion of the "chefs special omelette" at breakfast seems to have had an effect.

[sammieuk1]

Must be talking about the chance of winning your money back at a gambling den with odds of 31million-1 ????

[GinBoy2]

Oh Dear Lord, how many of these forecasts can we take?

 

So anyone with a brain knows international travel is doomed until at the earliest next year. So then you are down to domestic travel.

 

Very few countries are kicking the norm at this point, if you doubt that, look at how much money airlines across the world are bleeding on a daily basis.

 

TSA in the US probably gives you an accurate picture of daily screenings through security, which I would venture if you do the math by population shows you the real numbers.

 

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

[thailand49]

????   Come on fellas you really got to let us in on where you getting that sweet Thailand Gold you guys are smoking that must be some good stuff that makes one come up with all these ideas and figures!  ????

 

You might get some to the PM, and the medical experts so they can maybe get some vaccine and then relax or get rid of all the stupid rules so people can actually get in here. You might also let the airlines know that they should start to fly into Thailand so you can even come close to those numbers! Or are those numbers for domestic flights?