Thai Baht Finally Getting Weaker

[Banana7]

In Bangkok, cash rates for USD, CAD and  AUD are improving. USD 30.66, CAD 24.45, AUD 23.70.

It seems like crude oil prices affect THB, higher oil prices weaken THB. In 2019 Thailand imported 932 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/crude-oil-imports.

In the past year, crude oil has been US$28-42. Crude oil should be staying above US$60 for 2021. With a 50% increase in oil for 2021, Thai imports are set to exceed exports, driving THB down. As the Thai economy improves, more oil will be required.

 

Edited March 14, 2021 by Banana7

[Meat Pie 47]

yes it getting very weak

[daveAustin]

Yep. GBP also doing alright, though a bit under early noughties 75.

They'll need it to do something to the downside if they want exports make up shortfall on tourism at least!

[Ron jeremy]

Canada dollar has gotten stronger, 

[ezzra]

Just as well and on time as I am in Australia now and using my Thai bank Visa card extensively and every bit is helpful...

[Kwasaki]

10 hours ago, Banana7 said:

Thai Baht Finally Getting Weaker

Not that much but dream GBP gets better to counteract on-coming air-con bills.☺️

[Chivas]

Entirely down to Baht weakening against the benchmark USD on one side of currency pairings

Nothing to do with our own currencies suddenly gaining strength but we'll take it nonetheless

[Scouse123]

I feel it will be short lived and with the massive roll-out of stimulus in the USA and UK, including all the furloughing, coupled with Thailand's trade surplus, this weakening will not last until the end of 2021.

Of course, none of us know what is around the corner, but the UK is having massive problems since Brexit with imports and exports weakening greatly to the EU, these were originally described as ' teething problems ' but seem to be unresolved at the moment.

I think a big spike in unemployment will follow in the autumn in the UK, after the furloughing ends. I am not gloating, I want the United Kingdom to come out of Covid and the associated global problems as fast as possible.

The USA is committed to long term low interest rates under the Biden administration, that is what they are saying.

A GBP trend upwards was on the cards as the markets had said it was undervalued and was being held down by the Brexit uncertainty, which is now atan end.

[toolpush]

"In 2019 Thailand imported 932 million barrels of crude oil per day". Wow! That is a lot of oil to import per day. Especially since daily world oil production is only about 75 to 80 million BOPD.

[bronzedude]

Somebody wake me when the dollar goes over 31 to the baht. Until then spending power is essentially the same as 30 to 1. 10000/31= $322, 10000/30= $333. That $11 difference is small change.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 3/15/2021 at 1:44 AM, Banana7 said:

In 2019 Thailand imported 932 million barrels of crude oil per day,

That is a lot oil, even for this old hand.

You might want to divide that number with 1,000, then we can agree.

[ExpatOilWorker]

This report forecast a stronger baht, so maybe enjoy the 30+ to the US$ for as long as it last, soon it could be 29 again.

 

Danish Mgt_Macroecon Update_March 15, 2021 by Dr Kirida TDRI.pdf

[sandyf]

5 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

This report forecast a stronger baht, so maybe enjoy the 30+ to the US$ for as long as it last, soon it could be 29 again.

 

Danish Mgt_Macroecon Update_March 15, 2021 by Dr Kirida TDRI.pdf 2.04 MB · 0 downloads

The baht is tied to the dollar, the dollar has weakened, as can be seen with GBP and EUR, but that will probably reverse with the stimulus bill so the every chance the baht will strengthen again.

[Pilotman]

On 3/15/2021 at 2:57 AM, Ron jeremy said:

Canada dollar has gotten stronger, 

yea, nobody cares about that. ????

[DUNROAMIN]

Still a long way to go to 27B to 1 AUD. This was where it was 5 years ago.

[Davekavo]

Watch and wait it been overvalued for far too long it will fall to the old norms shortly. 

New Nordic holdings will be the first to fall as it is looking very shaky right now,when the property market crashes ,which it will the currency will follow. The Chinese are buying as must property as possible in Europe and Australia and are no longer concerned with the Thai market as it is too unstable and also the political situation is volatile. Sit back and wait the times they are a changin....eta

[Isaan sailor]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

The baht is tied to the dollar, the dollar has weakened, as can be seen with GBP and EUR, but that will probably reverse with the stimulus bill so the every chance the baht will strengthen again.

Not exactly.  It seems more likely the Baht is pegged to the Chinese Yuan.  The Yuan has given up its gains on last six months—as has the Baht.

They should peg the Baht to the USD again—but use 33 Baht (not 27 Baht) to the USD.  Then watch the economy rocket up.

[Rinrada]

On 3/15/2021 at 2:55 AM, daveAustin said:

Yep. GBP also doing alright, though a bit under early noughties 75.

They'll need it to do something to the downside if they want exports make up shortfall on tourism at least!

In 1997...best I got was ....97....although one old retired guy I knew changed 5 K TCs...showed me the receipt....@ 100 ...

[The Theory]

Maybe so, maybe no

[markeewan]

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

That is a lot oil, even for this old hand.

You might want to divide that number with 1,000, then we can agree.

Yeah, spot on, it is about 1.4 million bopd for 2019. But good news to have the baht weakening finally.

[hobobo]

3 hours ago, toolpush said:

"In 2019 Thailand imported 932 million barrels of crude oil per day". Wow! That is a lot of oil to import per day. Especially since daily world oil production is only about 75 to 80 million BOPD.

Someone skipped classes on the day they learned about decimals?

[Thomas J]

On 3/15/2021 at 1:44 AM, Banana7 said:

It seems like crude oil prices affect THB,

Oil prices should have nothing to do with the THB.  If anything a weaker dollar causes oil prices calculated in USD to rise.  It would take more "weak" dollars to buy a barrel than a "strong" USD.   So if anything the correlation should be the higher the price of a barrel of oil, the worse the USD to THB would be assuming that the rise in price was entirely due to the weakened USD.   The only way to view this is to look at world currencies such as the USD, or CAD, or Euro and see how they are trading relative to each other.  If the USD dollar strengthens relative to other world currencies its exchange rate against the THB would in most cases also improve.  Currencies fluctuate due to many reasons but oil price is not one of them. 

[keith101]

I just got 24.04 for my last Aus age pension so getting better for sure and hope it keeps going .

[AlfHuy]

2 hours ago, Davekavo said:

Watch and wait it been overvalued for far too long it will fall to the old norms shortly. 

New Nordic holdings will be the first to fall as it is looking very shaky right now,when the property market crashes ,which it will the currency will follow. The Chinese are buying as must property as possible in Europe and Australia and are no longer concerned with the Thai market as it is too unstable and also the political situation is volatile. Sit back and wait the times they are a changin....eta

Isn't it "New Nordic Holding" who filed for bankruptcy? Did hear something like that.

[Chivas]

Amusing that again we're seeing posters claim the Baht is "tied" to the USD and the Yuan

Its finds it own level guys but takes its fix off the benchmark USD 24/7 as regards currency exchange..... Thats all you need to remember plus what your own base currency is doing against that same USD on the opposite side of the two currency pairings.

All the rest is just "noise"

Edited March 16, 2021 by Chivas

[Chivas]

1 minute ago, Chivas said:

 

double post apologies

Edited March 16, 2021 by Chivas

[KhunBENQ]

1 hour ago, keith101 said:

I just got 24.04 for my last Aus age pension so getting better for sure and hope it keeps going .

AUD is one of the real winners over the last year.

I am too lazy to do the percentage:

Quote

USD/THB close: 30.755 low: 29.7961 high: 33.0843
GBP/THB close: 42.5253 low: 37.4903 high: 42.8806
AUD/THB close: 23.7627 low: 18.7275 high: 24.1104
EUR/THB close: 36.6681 low: 34.65 high: 37.2782

Tied to the Dollar is an old myth before the big crash in 1997.
More than 10% volatility over the year.

And the USD is not a winner over the year. EUR also meager.

 

[PETERTHEEATER]

5 hours ago, toolpush said:

"In 2019 Thailand imported 932 million barrels of crude oil per day". Wow! That is a lot of oil to import per day. Especially since daily world oil production is only about 75 to 80 million BOPD.

Do you not understand that Thailand is THE HUB of oil imports. But to where, then, do they export the surplus? ????

 

[allanos]

The markets have yet to reflect the effects of the latest Biden/Dem "stimulus package", at around $ 1.7 TRILLION! How much, or how little, will it in fact help to improve the American economy, or will it simply stimulate US stock market indices?

That the package includes such worthy targets as gender studies in Pakistan, or the bailing out of New York and California from their tenuous financial positions, does not really inspire a lot of confidence.

And new Fed appointee Janet Yellen has yet to make her presence fully felt. Interest rates are at a low and she has no headroom to raise them. Factoring in inflation (whose figures, anyway, and not to put too fine a point on it, are manipulated), bond/ treasury yields are negative, thus undermining the value of the dollar.

Is this the time to talk about Bitcoin? Lol

Given the above, the future scenario is about a weakening USD, and a concomitant rise in THB and other international currencies. (THB is not "tied" to the US dollar, as in "pegged", but is nevertheless essentially a function of US dollar fluctuations).

 

 

[Advocate]

On 3/15/2021 at 2:55 AM, daveAustin said:

Yep. GBP also doing alright, though a bit under early noughties 75.

They'll need it to do something to the downside if they want exports make up shortfall on tourism at least!

The British rupee? GBP 1 = 42.49 THB a long way from 75.

There is no possibility of a resurgence of the British rupee. The opposite is more likely as Brexit unravels further.