Songkran could bring new wave of COVID-19 infections, top virologist warns

[webfact]

File photo//wikipedia

 

Thailand’s leading virologist has warned that the upcoming Songkran festival could result in a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

 

Posting on his Facebook page on Sunday, Dr Yong Poovorawan, head of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn University said he expects the daily infection rate to jump from the tens to the hundreds after the Songkran festival.

 

Despite the Thai government banning large gatherings and water throwing this Songkran, no restrictions have been placed on domestic travel. In fact, the Thai government is actively encouraging people to travel and spend money during the week long holiday.

 

This policy will likely lead to an increase in daily infections, Dr Yong warned.

 

He wrote that people have already started to become complacent in keeping their guard up against COVID-19 and that because of this a lot of  money will be wasted on testing and monitoring for possible outbreaks.

 

Dr Yong cited the recent outbreaks that have been linked to bars and pubs in Thonglor and Sukhumvit and said that entertainment areas are often responsible for quick transmission of the virus.

 

On Sunday, Thailand reported 96 new COVID-19 infections. Dr Yong said that 71 of these cases could be linked to the outbreak at Bangkok entertainment venues.

 

This year’s Songkran festival officially takes place between April 12-15 inclusive, but is preceded by a weekend.

 

 

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[Surelynot]

He is an expert....we don't listen to experts in the UK.....unless we can pin the blame on them at a later date.

[tominbkk]

Kind of tired seeing that smug 'expert' all the time,.

[BangkokReady]

Well that's kind of obvious.  It was obvious when they chose not to restrict anything at Christmas.

 

The government doesn't seem to feel like they can lock people down as much as they did previously, presumably to prevent civil unrest.  The cost of this, of course, is more outbreaks.

[ThailandRyan]

A day late and a dollar short methinks 

[internationalism]

so the first time in history, the government has extended songkran to include 12th april.

 

there are rumours that one of ministers, who partied in one of those thonglor venues thrown by japanese ambassador (confirmed now positive) is also tested positive and attended the government meeting.

 

the government had a chance to make this very weekend 3-4.04 to extend it to include today and tomorrow holiday, and shorten songkran to only 2 days.

 

there is also yet another long holiday at beginning of May, from saturday 1.5 to coronation day on 5.5.

 

much better for the safety, health and economy are extended weekends

 

 

[MasterBaker]

and it would

[Pattaya Spotter]

Isn't this the guy who every few months warns of possible new waves of infections?

[Jessi]

This story is in the BKK post today.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The government had this chart in their briefing yesterday showing the trend lines for local COVID cases. If you look to the far right of the chart, you can see the recent trendline beginning to tick upward again. And this chart was prepared before today's spike in numbers.

 

I believe the red line numbers reflect "local" cases as opposed to imported or migrant numbers.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/299937731624558

 

[brewsterbudgen]

It's hardly rocket-science that festivals like Songkran will result in an increase in infections!  Covid will be part of life for years to come, so we'd better get used to it.  A half-hearted lockdown won't make much difference, and will just cause more misery. 

[RichardColeman]

As someone stuck in the UK and waiting for no hoops return to the family, I fear my own UK government opening up to summer flights in Europe this year and bringing new waves in.

 

I am happy to wait 6 months or so now that we are speeding up vaccination - and most Uk nationals should be covered end summer - shame the EU and their bureaucrats have mucked up Europe. 

 

But the point is we are so near and about to muck it up if releasing and congregating with unvaccinated people too soon, both UK and Thailand 

[RichardColeman]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

 

I believe the red line numbers reflect "local" cases as opposed to imported or migrant numbers.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/299937731624558

 

Do you know of any other country on the planet that tries to show (and blame) this data by 'migrants' or foreigners  ? 

[vandeventer]

To me, traveling within Thailand looks like a much smaller problem compared to tourist coming in from countries that have a much higher covid-19 rate than Thailand.

[Guderian]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

On Sunday, Thailand reported 96 new COVID-19 infections. Dr Yong said that 71 of these cases could be linked to the outbreak at Bangkok entertainment venues.

 

Why use old numbers, today's reported number of new domestic cases is 182. Seven are in Chonburi and mostly linked to entertainment venues.

The government needs to lock down again now, or this will spiral out of control. Foreign tourists won't come here if the Covid situation is looking like Brazil's. Prayut and the CCSA need to get a grip or many Thais will end up cursing them for a thousand generations (that's on top of all the people who already do, lol).

[robbioff]

3 hours ago, tominbkk said:

Kind of tired seeing that smug 'expert' all the time,.

Mr Fear Mongerer-in-chief

[Daithi85]

45 minutes ago, Guderian said:

 

Why use old numbers, today's reported number of new domestic cases is 182. Seven are in Chonburi and mostly linked to entertainment venues.

The government needs to lock down again now, or this will spiral out of control. Foreign tourists won't come here if the Covid situation is looking like Brazil's. Prayut and the CCSA need to get a grip or many Thais will end up cursing them for a thousand generations (that's on top of all the people who already do, lol).

U should go for  a walk, it might  do u some good. ????

[ChrisKC]

Only today, there are reports of 194 new infections in Thailand and I fear that any statement declaring being in control is probably not realistic.

And surely, it must be true that to encourage travel in non-social distancing buses and trains can only lead to further outbreaks.

 

it is a shame that Songkran cannot be celebrated according to tradition for another year but what is more important than doing all it takes to keep the people safe?

 

[starky]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Do you know of any other country on the planet that tries to show (and blame) this data by 'migrants' or foreigners  ? 

Yep Australia and New Zealand for 2 just off the top of my head I'm sure there are plenty of others who do their numbers by locally acquired and those in quarantine ...which is what its really  about its not a big anti falang conspiracy.  

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s leading virologist has warned that the upcoming Songkran festival could result in a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

With the amount of as yet undetected/tested people in Bangkok, when they go on this annual migration that's becomes a certainty.

[Dialemco]

He is almost certainly right this will be another delay in opening for International Tourism. It would have been best to have concentrated on the vaccination programme.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Surelynot said:

He is an expert....we don't listen to experts in the UK.....unless we can pin the blame on them at a later date.

What has this post got to do with the UK?

[Surelynot]

Just now, hotchilli said:

What has this post got to do with the UK?

Oh I do apologize for making a comment that is not strictly in-line with your lordship's expectation......I will try to do better in future.

[Daithi85]

7 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

With the amount of as yet undetected/tested people in Bangkok, when they go on this annual migration that's becomes a certainty.

Not really,not much happened the last  few holidays.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Chonburi, KK doctors, prison, Thonglor/Ekamai night clubs and schools.

Hope the summer heat will keep it in check.

 

[paulikens]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

As someone stuck in the UK and waiting for no hoops return to the family, I fear my own UK government opening up to summer flights in Europe this year and bringing new waves in.

 

I am happy to wait 6 months or so now that we are speeding up vaccination - and most Uk nationals should be covered end summer - shame the EU and their bureaucrats have mucked up Europe. 

 

But the point is we are so near and about to muck it up if releasing and congregating with unvaccinated people too soon, both UK and Thailand 

@RichardColeman doesnt seem to me your family mean that much to you, cuz you cant be arsed to do a bit of paperwork, id move heaven and earth for my family.   

[Elkski]

10 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@RichardColeman doesnt seem to me your family mean that much to you, cuz you cant be arsed to do a bit of paperwork, id move heaven and earth for my family.   

I think this is not something to comment on.   I'm not sure I could do 14 or 10 or even 7 days in jail. I have not seen my fiancee for 15 months.  Our relationship is strong and I feel I can achieve things here to better our future for when she  hopefully can come on a K1 visa that we think is near.  

A 4-6 week visit would cost 2x the price of 18 months ago and 14, now 10, or 7.  With possibility of hospital stay on top. 

I hope these holidays don't result in a big spike like we have seen in USA after most holidays.   This could really effect tourist numbers as well as shut down the US embassy which would delay our reunion.   Some people are trying to be responsible and listen to only doing essential travel. 

[robblok]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The government had this chart in their briefing yesterday showing the trend lines for local COVID cases. If you look to the far right of the chart, you can see the recent trendline beginning to tick upward again. And this chart was prepared before today's spike in numbers.

 

I believe the red line numbers reflect "local" cases as opposed to imported or migrant numbers.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/299937731624558

 

After recent experience with the Thai government in how active they are at searching out the virus I don't believe much of their numbers anymore.

A certain company has now 10 covid cases only one confirmed by the second government test but others by hospital tests. The company called the government to ask if they should test all their employees. No need was the anwser and the company could not report to the outside world they had the virus because not all cases were confirmed by the goverment. (takes time). So even if a company has covid among its employees they are not allowed to tell anyone until the goverment test. Also they had 10 infections in the company but the government did not want to test everyone in the company. 

 

So it sounds to me as if they want to keep numbers as low as they can.

[connda]

4 hours ago, tominbkk said:

Kind of tired seeing that smug 'expert' all the time,.

Yeah, exactly.  And why isn't he double-masked to set an example for the plebs while he's pontificating.  Perhaps he should spend his time pontificating to Thai officials about getting their butt's in gear with vaccine distribution.  How many holidays have come an gone with Khun Yong on the front cover of the press warning that holiday gathering will spike the numbers?  Bunches.

[Henryford]

You can kiss goodbye to any foreign tourists coming in 2021. It's as if they want to keep the lockdowns.