Expert warns COVID wave may be much worse than one and two - expect 1,000 cases/day

[MasterBaker]

that's a proper mask, dude. i got one of those, finally a words from real expert, not a government quacker

Edited April 8, 2021 by MasterBaker

[brewsterbudgen]

21 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Really I found another, if you want more let me know, how many do you need?

 

Songkran could bring new wave of COVID-19 infections, top virologist warns 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1212685-songkran-could-bring-new-wave-of-covid-19-infections-top-virologist-warns/?fbclid=IwAR0VL3NM9ahea4R51tSnyJ4xEpBdLHIVdW_jog8WtV9O_ufbSaMQAkDoMJM

 

But I guess  Anutin prefers to ignore them or label them as fear mongers. 

 

 

 

I'm not disputing what he (and also, I'm sure, the other doctors you may quote) says about the virus spreading; of course it will.  Covid and its new strains will be spreading for the forseeable future. But his opinion about a total lockdown (families not mixing etc.) is just his view, and is not practical or desirable.   Of course, Anutin is an idiot.

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

I'm not disputing what he (and also, I'm sure, the other doctors you may quote) says about the virus spreading; of course it will.  Covid and its new strains will be spreading for the forseeable future. But his opinion about a total lockdown (families not mixing etc.) is just his view, and is not practical or desirable.   Of course, Anutin is an idiot.

Families mixing and infecting themselves/others is partially what's causing this new outbreak.  The meat vendors in the fresh market are an example.  Avoiding this is what experts around the globe recommend.

 

But yes, Anutin is an .....

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-spreads-quickly-among-household-members-cdc-report-finds-n1245493

 

Coronavirus spreads quickly among household members, CDC report finds

 

The report noted that the age of the index patient didn’t matter — adults, children and teens all spread the virus to others in their households.

[brewsterbudgen]

10 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Families mixing and infecting themselves/others is partially what's causing this new outbreak.  The meat vendors in the fresh market are an example.  Avoiding this is what experts around the globe recommend.

 

But yes, Anutin is an .....

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-spreads-quickly-among-household-members-cdc-report-finds-n1245493

 

Coronavirus spreads quickly among household members, CDC report finds

 

The report noted that the age of the index patient didn’t matter — adults, children and teens all spread the virus to others in their households.

 

You're right and the only really effective way to stop any spread would be to have a total lockdown, which is what I think the doctor in the OP would like to see.  They did this in Wuhan and other Chinese towns.  Families were locked down and only one family member could leave the home to buy food once a week.  ALL businesses were totally locked down.  It worked in Wuhan but at what cost?  Partial lockdowns like those tried in the UK, US and "mini" lockdowns like those in Thailand have minimal effect.  The virus is going to spread just as viruses always do.  There is no evidence (so far) that the Thai health system is being, or will be, overwhelmed.  In fact less than 100 deaths have been attributed to Covid since March 2020! That will figure will rise, but it's still likely to be low when compared to deaths in Thailand from other causes.

 

Like you, I have no faith in the government, although closing the borders and requiring quarantine for people arriving here has proved to be successful.

Edited April 8, 2021 by brewsterbudgen

[Jeffr2]

17 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

You're right and the only really effective way to stop any spread would be to have a total lockdown, which is what I think the doctor in the OP would like to see.  They did this in Wuhan and other Chinese towns.  Families were locked down and only one family member could leave the home to buy food once a week.  ALL businesses were totally locked down.  It worked in Wuhan but at what cost?  Partial lockdowns like those tried in the UK, US and "mini" lockdowns like those in Thailand have minimal effect.  The virus is going to spread just as viruses always do.  There is no evidence (so far) that the Thai health system is being, or will be, overwhelmed.  In fact less than 100 deaths have been attributed to Covid since March 2020! That will figure will rise, but it's still likely to be low when compared to deaths in Thailand from other causes.

 

Like you, I have no faith in the government, although closing the borders and requiring quarantine for people arriving here has proved to be successful.

It worked in Wuhan, and they were back on the streets having a normal life months ago.  Targeted lock downs have occurred there since then.  But it worked.  Same with Taiwan. 

 

Costly?  Yes.  But many lives were saved.  People that could go back to work and help the economy.  China's growth was impressive last year.

 

If the virus rages here, like in other similar countries (Brazil, etc), the hospital system will be overwhelmed.  It was also in the US, UK, etc.

 

I do have faith in the government.  They aren't perfect, but far from terrible.  Sure glad I'm here and not in the US or Europe where they are still struggling with this badly.

 

We should be able to get jabs in June.  Private hospitals.  Fingers crossed.

[Bkk Brian]

38 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

You're right and the only really effective way to stop any spread would be to have a total lockdown, which is what I think the doctor in the OP would like to see.  They did this in Wuhan and other Chinese towns.  Families were locked down and only one family member could leave the home to buy food once a week.  ALL businesses were totally locked down.  It worked in Wuhan but at what cost?  Partial lockdowns like those tried in the UK, US and "mini" lockdowns like those in Thailand have minimal effect.  The virus is going to spread just as viruses always do.  There is no evidence (so far) that the Thai health system is being, or will be, overwhelmed.  In fact less than 100 deaths have been attributed to Covid since March 2020! That will figure will rise, but it's still likely to be low when compared to deaths in Thailand from other causes.

 

Like you, I have no faith in the government, although closing the borders and requiring quarantine for people arriving here has proved to be successful.

Strict targeted lockdowns work, there can be no denying that. Phuket had a harsh lockdown last year the harshest in Thailand, we were not allowed out of our sub district for a month. The nearest shop our family had was a 7/11. It lasted a month if my memory serves correct. Everything was closed, the sub district officials were delivering basic food items including to our house, eggs, etc. My daughter was off school of course. It was just as harsh as Wuhan believe me.

 

It worked, since then Phuket has been case free aside from less than a handfull of cases and was on track to open up again for the Phuket Sandbox model on 1st July. Vaccination plan in place, my wife even got vaccinated yesterday.

 

However bam! Now 8 new cases originating from Bangkok and a party they had there and then attending a beach club party here. The UK variant is vicious and Thailand has not dealt with such an infectious variant before, thats why we need to deal with this now before it gets out of hand. 

 

Its no good playing a waiting game and seeing who's right, its about seeing what risks there are and doing what can be done to avoid the worst case scenario.

Edited April 8, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[skorp13]

1,000 cases a day based on??? A few more positive tests and chicken little runs into the street. 

[brewsterbudgen]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Strict targeted lockdowns work, there can be no denying that. Phuket had a harsh lockdown last year the harshest in Thailand, we were not allowed out of our sub district for a month. The nearest shop our family had was a 7/11. It lasted a month if my memory serves correct. Everything was closed, the sub district officials were delivering basic food items including to our house, eggs, etc. My daughter was off school of course. It was just as harsh as Wuhan believe me.

 

It worked, since then Phuket has been case free aside from less than a handfull of cases and was on track to open up again for the Phuket Sandbox model on 1st July. Vaccination plan in place, my wife even got vaccinated yesterday.

 

However bam! Now 8 new cases from originating from Bangkok and a party they had here. The UK variant is vicious and Thailand has not dealt with such an infectious variant before, thats why we need to deal with this now before it gets out of hand. 

 

Its no good playing a waiting game and seeing who's right, its about seeing what risks there are and doing what can be done to avoid the worst case scenario.

 

Yes, the Phuket lockdown certainly seemed stricter than the one I went through in Bangkok. My point is that you can't lock down people forever, so it's inevitable that further outbreaks will occur, like now.  Life has to return to a "new" normal, and we have to get used to living with the virus until it disappears or can be effectively controlled through vaccinations, like all previous viruses have.

Edited April 8, 2021 by brewsterbudgen

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, skorp13 said:

1,000 cases a day based on??? A few more positive tests and chicken little runs into the street. 

Follow the news.  Read the entire article.  Not just the headlines.  It's more than a few more positive cases.

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Yes, the Phuket lockdown certainly seemed stricter to the one I went through in Bangkok. My point is that you can't lock down people forever, so it's inevitable that further outbreaks will occur, like now.  Life has to return to a "new" normal, and we have to get used to living with the virus until it disappears or can be effectively controlled through vaccinations, like all previous viruses have.

Further outbreaks are occurring because people are ignoring safety standards.  If we locked down for a few weeks.  The virus would abate.  Sadly, many don't feel the need to follow the advice of the scientists.

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Yes, the Phuket lockdown certainly seemed stricter than the one I went through in Bangkok. My point is that you can't lock down people forever, so it's inevitable that further outbreaks will occur, like now.  Life has to return to a "new" normal, and we have to get used to living with the virus until it disappears or can be effectively controlled through vaccinations, like all previous viruses have.

Nobody is mentioning lockdowns for ever, any new normal living also has to have a plan to deal with sporadic outbreaks, thats exactly what we have now, so lets deal with it and get back to the new normal. Thats my point. Once we have widespread vaccinations in Thailand the possibility of having to take such drastic action again is minimal.

[GoodieAfterDark]

 We have the double mutant covid 19 in the States. I expect that Thailand you will have the triple mutant from Mars soon. Be aware. Three masks. Wash your hands three times a day. Pray to Buddha three times a day. 

[Bangkok Barry]

22 hours ago, BKKTRAVELER said:

Just heard rumors that the new clusters in Bkk are people infected with the British strain. If that's the case, we're probably screwed. That being said, they are rumors only, so who knows.

 

Before people ask me, they were cropped pictures of chats between doctors at Chula hospital discussing it. Can easily be all fake, and hopefully it is.

 

I heard about that claim too. But bearing in mind that all but essential travel out of the UK has been banned for weeks, I'd say that is a lot of nonsense. We all know where the outbreaks are coming from - next door, not from halfway around the world.

[BKKTRAVELER]

11 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

A good rumour comes back to the person who started it.

Meaning? It turns out it may be true. Really wished it wasn't.

[BKKTRAVELER]

1 hour ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

I heard about that claim too. But bearing in mind that all but essential travel out of the UK has been banned for weeks, I'd say that is a lot of nonsense. We all know where the outbreaks are coming from - next door, not from halfway around the world.

I agree, even if the UK strain has reached Thailand, it doesn't mean it came straight from the UK. Many countries have had cases with this strain for months.

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

I heard about that claim too. But bearing in mind that all but essential travel out of the UK has been banned for weeks, I'd say that is a lot of nonsense. We all know where the outbreaks are coming from - next door, not from halfway around the world.

It's not just a claim though - it's been confirmed by genomic sequencing tests.

 

As the previous post points out, there's no reason to think it came directly from the UK. In fact it's not clear that this strain even originated in the UK, we only know that it was first detected there.

 

Also, it is now the dominant strain in many different countries, not just the UK. See one example below.

 

UK variant is now the dominant coronavirus strain in the US, says CDC chief

Edited April 8, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[NoshowJones]

18 hours ago, superal said:

Bangkok hospitals are ready to offer jabs , once they have the OK from the government , at 2000 baht a jab ( not sure what vaccine they will use ) , so 4000 baht for the 2 jabs and not many Thais will be going for that methinks .     The concept is good and is being used in the UK with various agencies being employed to carry out the jabs , e.g. nationwide pharmacies .

And just what is the profit margin in that?? Probably somewhere between 500 and 1000%. This Chinese virus is sure making certain people very rich at the ordinary peoples expense.

[ParkerN]

On 4/7/2021 at 8:11 AM, Thaiwrath said:

But travelling home for Songkran, many on crowded public transport, is not a problem, according to the Health Minister Anutin !

Maybe he should have consulted you before making his stupid announcement ?

Not the Thai way. The Thai way is to shoot from the lip. Got an idea while sitting on the 'po' this morning? It could be law or a new hub by lunchtime.

 

The Thai way might not be so good but it gets my face in the paper so Mr Prayuth thinks I've been busy. And that's what really matters. Well, that and the bung.

[ParkerN]

19 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

And just what is the profit margin in that?? Probably somewhere between 500 and 1000%. This Chinese virus is sure making certain people very rich at the ordinary peoples expense.

 

Always been the way, why change it now...? If it works, do more of it.

[longway]

On 4/7/2021 at 8:20 AM, YetAnother said:

o boy....; let the panic commence

Im off to buy all the bum guns i can get my hands on.

[Dart12]

On 4/7/2021 at 1:56 PM, huangnon said:

It's supposed to be scary, headline-grabbing, etc.  Songkran was postponed last year, how much of the rest of your life do you want to postpone?

Probably best to double-mask and stay at home watching CNN from under our beds, eh?

if the gov is going to shut down EVERYTHING except malls and 7/11's again after Songkren if cases pop up after.  I think they SHOULD cancel it then.  I'd rather miss a few parties than be locked in the house rotting away again for 2 months or so.
 

 

[huangnon]

3 hours ago, possum1931 said:

And just what is the profit margin in that?? Probably somewhere between 500 and 1000%. This Chinese virus is sure making certain people very rich at the ordinary peoples expense.

 

Yep. Critical-thinking and all that. "Who benefits?" should be the question on a lot more lips than it currently is.

[candide]

Hmmmm. I intended to come back soon after getting my second jab. I guess I'll wait a bit to see how it goes. I'm not eager to switch from to lockdown after quarantine.

[Dart12]

Bangkok post says it's all but certain 2 week "entertainment" lockdown is being put into effect for 41 provinces after meeting Friday.

Of course pubs, clubs, and bars are included.  I hope nothing else.




 

[ParkerN]

10 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

I'm not disputing what he (and also, I'm sure, the other doctors you may quote) says about the virus spreading; of course it will.  Covid and its new strains will be spreading for the forseeable future. But his opinion about a total lockdown (families not mixing etc.) is just his view, and is not practical or desirable.   Of course, Anutin is an idiot.

 

Right on both counts. Anutin most certainly is an idiot, but how about the guy/gal who promoted an idiot? What about him/her?

 

COVID-19 has not yet finished with humanity, and it's shaping up to be a real killer. What with all the variants... all that's left for it to be almost uncontrollable is for the mutations to be non-responsive to the vaccine(s). Now that would make all this very, very interesting. Better watch this space if the rumours are anything to go by...

 

Edited April 8, 2021 by ParkerN

[kiwikeith]

On 4/7/2021 at 1:13 PM, Shuya said:

Good thing they had over 1 year to prepare. Used the time wisely I see.

I'm sure if a local goes to a pharmacy, they will come away with a bag filled with a variety of coloured pills that will fix any ailments, no need for any silly quarantine or waxine. 

[BobinBKK]

On 4/7/2021 at 8:11 AM, Thaiwrath said:

But travelling home for Songkran, many on crowded public transport, is not a problem, according to the Health Minister Anutin !

Maybe he should have consulted you before making his stupid announcement ?

Experts in stupidity, every single one of them ????

[skorp13]

On 4/8/2021 at 8:45 AM, Jeffr2 said:

Follow the news.  Read the entire article.  Not just the headlines.  It's more than a few more positive cases.

 

Less than 500 cases at the time in a country of 70 million people would classify as a few

[BobinBKK]

On 4/7/2021 at 9:59 AM, Niteowl45 said:

This is another example of why it will be a long time before I visit Thailand again.

 

People who spend thousands of dollars to come over now have to also get expensive health insurance, quarantine, tracking etc, while in the meantime they let in workers from nearby countries for some payola and then they tell locals to go traveling in the country during another wave....

 

Screw them and their idiotic way of doing things.....

Thailand should be the last country on Earth telling foreigners on holiday or expats what to do. They can't even control or clean up their own mess with their own citizens and corrupt officials accepting money allowing migrant workers to enter the country.

[spidermike007]

Hold on. I thought panic mongering was a criminal offense. Will someone please lock up Dr. Chindawatana asap. The Thai people are not petrified enough right now? Let's just whip them up into a hysteria. 

 

Thanks for your opinion Doc. But we don't need the additional anxiety, thank you very much. 

Edited April 9, 2021 by spidermike007