Thailand’s third COVID-19 wave has already peaked: CCSA

[Abmong]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Concerning the ability of the virus to survive after a brief lockdown:

 

There was a ship that left Argentina for 2 months. At the end of 2 months, most of the crew developed Covid-19. Everyone had been tested at the start, so it was a big mystery how the virus could attack after 2 months at sea.

 

They did find that one of the crew was exposed to Covid prior to disembarcation, on the flight to the port. That crew member was tested so early that the test didn't pick up the virus. And then they were asymptomatic. And that crew member infected someone else who was also asymptomatic, and then another, until the virus eventually hit someone who developed symptoms, and then everyone was visibly ill.

 

So, it's possible to have asymptomatic infection chains between waves.

 

This is the main problem, we need to account for the time the virus can survive out in the open without a host, as well as the actual infection cycle time itself, non-symptomatic and symptomatic stages. And the PC culture around Covid needs to stop, "Asymptomatic" people are Carriers, don't sugar coat it. If they don't quarantee they become the Superspreaders. This is why it's important everyone gets tested and vaccinated, not just the symptomatic. People won't know if they're a carrier or not without getting tested. And it's not just one off tests we need either, it's periodic testing.

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Joinaman said:

maybe so, but no autopsy and no testing ?

Just like in our village, maybe 5 people in the last couple of weeks, including Grandma. No police, no autopsies , just put in coolbox till burning time

Its been great here for the local <deleted> heads, free beer and food every day .

As long as the authorities get the mortality info, they will know the extent of the toll of the virus, by calculating excess mortality. They know how many people die from old age or chronic illnesses or heart attacks - in bulk numbers. When the number of deaths rises far above normal, then they know its the plague.

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Abmong said:

This is the main problem, we need to account for the time the virus can survive out in the open without a host, as well as the actual infection cycle time itself, non-symptomatic and symptomatic stages. And the PC culture around Covid needs to stop, "Asymptomatic" people are Carriers, don't sugar coat it. If they don't quarantee they become the Superspreaders. This is why it's important everyone gets tested and vaccinated, not just the symptomatic. People won't know if they're a carrier or not without getting tested. And it's not just one off tests we need either, it's periodic testing.

It's odd that the term "carrier" isn't used for Covid. People aren't worried about asymptomatic Covid infected people, but say "Typhoid Carrier" and people run.

[unblocktheplanet]

RUBBISH! It's same same old predictable pattern. NOW's the time to LOCK IT DOWN not let down our guard!

[Raphael Hythlodaeus]

Since the General PM has taken over responsibility, then I would expect the number of cases/deaths to decline, since otherwise there would be a "loss of face."

[Mayhem11]

Some of you are obsessed with testing. The mortality rate is the only true measure. Like the mortalities in the USA.

[Abmong]

30 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It's odd that the term "carrier" isn't used for Covid. People aren't worried about asymptomatic Covid infected people, but say "Typhoid Carrier" and people run.

Probably some mediaheads decided it was too offensive a term to be used on humans... Yet we have no problems using Carriers to denote desease carrying animals. Problem I have with "Asymptomatic" is it doesn't impress upon people the infectious nature of Covid. It's fine if it's used for noncommunicable diseases, but Covid demands more urgency before it becomes an Endemic rather than Pandemic if it hasn't already.

[VBF]

3 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 Very first line of the article you posted a link to ....

 

Nearly 10% of English NHS trusts had no spare capacity for critical care patients in the final week of January, as Covid pressures continued to bite.

 

 

So, if your argument is that 10% of ’NHS Trusts’ were at full or close to full capacity, I completely agree with you.

 

However...  your argument is flawed in response to the fact I quoted of ICU beds across the nation being at 30% capacity.

 

Note: The 30% figure is from news before January 2021 and may no longer be accurate. 

 

The point I want to make is that the information we are being provided is often misleading and flawed. The very link you presented is also misleading in that it quotes 10% of NHS Trusts, not 10% of hospitals across the UK.

 

There are 1257 hospitals in the UK... 15 of them had full ICU beds. 

 

Why didn’t the headline quote 1.2% of UK hospitals at full ICU bed capacity for a period in January ???

 

 

I hope this explains how misleading information can be. 

 

 

Lies, damned lies and statistics? ????

[farik]

I dont know why, but Thailand knows how to have covid under control......and people seems more aware of rules than westeners and falangs in thailand

kudos to Thailand

[VBF]

53 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It's odd that the term "carrier" isn't used for Covid. People aren't worried about asymptomatic Covid infected people, but say "Typhoid Carrier" and people run.

Typhoid was common in the days before Political Correctness blighted us all ????

[kwilco]

Rather bizarre announcement. Although it may be true, it seems a bit premature and more concerned with image rather than actual reality.

[Bkk Brian]

20 minutes ago, Mayhem11 said:

Some of you are obsessed with testing. The mortality rate is the only true measure. Like the mortalities in the USA.

You can only get the mortality rate if you test first, maybe thats why, just a thought?

[crazykopite]

Absolute <deleted>

[connda]

Of course it has, well, until some other expert that hasn't seen his picture in the paper for awhile decides to weigh in with a counter narrative that the pandemic isn't even close to resolving and the entire population need to live in plastic bubbles and bio-hazard suits for the rest of their lives.  ????

[connda]

Just now, connda said:

Of course it has, well, until some other expert that hasn't seen his picture in the paper for awhile decides to weigh in with a counter narrative that the pandemic isn't even close to resolving and the entire population need to live in plastic bubbles and bio-hazard suits for the rest of their lives.  ????

Oh, and no more drinking - ever! 

[impulse]

8 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

The 4th wave is when they open up the borders.

 

Or they buy more testing kits.

 

[ourmanflint]

2 hours ago, Mayhem11 said:

Some of you are obsessed with testing. The mortality rate is the only true measure. Like the mortalities in the USA.

I agree and excess mortality for Thailand is climbing quickly for March, April numbers will be out soon

Edited April 30, 2021 by ourmanflint

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

I agree and excess mortality for Thailand is climbing quickly for March, April numbers will be out soon

It's the EXCESS mortality rate that is important and also the healthcare industry's capacity to deal with not just sorta;ity but those cases serious enough to warrant hospitalisation.

furthermore the leftovers are crucial - families that lose breadwinners, and those who get "long-term" covid and are disabilitated for long periods or life.

 

Whatever the path the disease takes, Thailand is not in a position to deal with ANY increase and the new strains seem far more contagious in this region than before.

[joecoolfrog]

10 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Hospitals in the UK may not have been completely overflowing like they are in India at the moment but they were very close to it at times.

 

My daughter has been working with CoVid-19 patents in critical care in an NHS hospital since the pandemic began and she and her colleagues were almost completely overwhelmed at times. At one point she was working 12-14 hour shifts for two weeks straight without a day off.

 

Also, as stated in the article below:

 

 

No free critical care beds in 15 NHS Trusts

Dont get me wrong , I fully realise that the NHS has been under severe pressure during the pandemic.

What I objected to was the bland statement infering that the UK was in the kind of situation that India and Brazil find themselves in now.

[joecoolfrog]

6 hours ago, Mayhem11 said:

Some of you are obsessed with testing. The mortality rate is the only true measure. Like the mortalities in the USA.

Well unless one has blanket testing , the covid mortality rate will not be known.

Perhaps you mean the excess overall mortality rates relative to other periods of time.

[kiwikeith]

13 hours ago, rabas said:

Three times now. Three waves.  If they really can defeat this one, there is little doubt their system works well for Thailand.

 

It just goes to show you that since Prayut has taken personal control the numbers are declineing. 

 

I just hope his recipe works if the Indian strains sneak across via Myanmar. 

I certainly hope that base is covered for all. 

Any recovery for tourism worldwide is now a serious worry because of the situation in India. 

Very sad and serious for India. 

 

I hope Thailand can get a grip on this, If you look at the situation in Papua New Guinea, no testing being done, short supplies and statistics that are almost impossible to take as true,due to deaths in the villages and unreported cases, according to the doctors there, then some of the figures in Thailand may be on the low side. 

The vaccine roll out and the Covid situation worldwide is a total mess. 

The word has travelled into the jungle in Papua now with the people refusing Astra vaccine doses because of the restrictions imposed by other countries. 

RNZ news today. 

[Bday Prang]

12 hours ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

Yes, it's wonderful -- amazing -- how the Thai Government has been able to overcome the UK variant so quickly -- I'm sure they are sending their "magic formula" to all parts of the globe now!

 

So now they've got the UK variant under control Thai scientists will already be working on the formula to defeat the "Indian" variant -- which is much more virulent and is killing hundreds of thousands of Indians every day -- even though Thailand's containment measures won't allow it to enter Thailand!

its not killing hundreds of thousands of Indians every day !!! Why would you say that, The Indian per-capita death rate is a fraction of the UK

[Bday Prang]

7 hours ago, VBF said:

Typhoid was common in the days before Political Correctness blighted us all ????

I'd prefer to have Typhoid than be dosed with political correctness

[Bday Prang]

15 hours ago, cyril sneer said:

I saw the news of that celebrity dying this morning, makes me wonder what goes on these rural isaan villages...

what would you like to know?

[morrobay]

9 hours ago, Abmong said:

This is the main problem, we need to account for the time the virus can survive out in the open without a host, as well as the actual infection cycle time itself, 

The post you quoted is about one crew member infecting others on a ship: close quarters exposure. The infection cycle time is the generation interval: the time between  infection events in an infector-infectee pair. And is about 3 days, one day less than the serial interval. As seen in the graph most infections are transmitted in this interval. That is during the three days after initial infection.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32145466/#:~:text=Limiting our data to only,than its median incubation period.

 

[morrobay]

10 hours ago, Abmong said:

This is the main problem, we need to account for the time the virus can survive out in the open without a host, as well as the actual infection cycle time itself

The ship in Argentina that had 57 crew members infected with covid in 35 days at sea is a text book example of how the generation interval is used in the exponent of growth. With just one infected crew member and an R0 of 1.5. The exponent of growth is time/generation interval. So 35 days/3days = 11.6 Then it is very easy to have 57 infections: (1.5)^11.6. 

https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/57-sailors-tested-covid-positive-after-spending-35-days-at-sea-puzzles-medical-researchers/amp/

[bstafford214]

22 hours ago, mr_lob said:

Number of tests peaked on the same date...????

Can never believe what is reported here by Thai news media because they don't know. The problem here in Thailand is the testing.

The so called peak being reached and now going downward on reported cases is more likely due to less testing again.

They are hiding the facts or just not testing like other Western countries do and did. If they would have cancelled Songkran there would

not be this big problem of thousands of people going to hospitals asking to be tested, people just got scared.

 

Before Songkran holiday, most people did not follow guidelines unless they went to public stores. When outside they remove their mask and act like there is no Covid-19. Thank the government for allowing the infections to spread through the country.

Edited May 1, 2021 by bstafford214

[berrec]

I now I keep flogging a dead horse but it really simple " If you can't measure it you cant manage it"

 

End of story; game, set and match.

 

Until the Thai government have the supply-chain, logistics and qualified medical staff to continuously test and retest every one of it's 70 million citizens + farangs + foreign workers (legal and illegal) in the country "FOR FREE" there will never be a real account of the actual COVID case numbers.

 

 

[Brunolem]

3 minutes ago, berrec said:

 

Until the Thai government have the supply-chain, logistics and qualified medical staff to continuously test and retest every one of it's 70 million citizens + farangs + foreign workers (legal and illegal) in the country 

 

Continuously, as in every day, or only every other day?

 

How much are you willing to contribute, financially, in that gigantic effort?

 

Thailand is not a socialist paradise, like in North America or in Western Europe, where money grows on trees...Thailand has to earn its money...

[EricTh]

I wouldn't bet on 'the peak' until i see the figure goes below 100 new cases for 1 week.

 

India got laxed and look what happened to India.