Thailand Says Its Tourism Sector May Not Recover Until 2026

[webfact]

FILE PHOTO: Tourists w alk up a flight of stairs to Wat Phra That Doi Suthep in Chiang Mai, Thailand.  Photographer: Taylor Weidman/Bloomberg

 

By Randy Thanthong-Knight

 

● Slow revival to hurt 7 million workers in key travel sector

● Thailand’s unemployment rate reached 12-year high in March

 

It could take another five years before tourism revives fully in Thailand -- an ominous sign for one of the most travel-dependent economies in the world.

 

The sector, which contributed about one-fifth of Thailand’s economy before the pandemic, isn’t expected to return to normal until 2026, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, citing the Tourism Authority of Thailand. The delayed return -- which some analysts had expected within two years -- will impact more than seven million workers, some of whom may need to find jobs in other fields, the council said.

 

Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million visitors in 2019 -- the last year before the pandemic -- generating $60 billion in revenue. The Southeast Asian nation, which closed its borders to most foreign visitors in March 2020, is trying to gradually reopen some destinations to vaccinated visitors with the economy struggling to gain traction.

 

Full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-24/thailand-says-its-tourism-industry-may-not-recover-until-2026

 

-- © Copyright Bloomberg 2021-05-25

 

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[welshguy]

At last...some realism is hitting them.

[smedly]

Phuket back to normal in 5 weeks apparently lol

[smedly]

Just now, welshguy said:

At last...some realism is hitting them.

agree - a good honest assessment 

[bkk6060]

There is definitely pent up demand out there.  First thing most people say in recovering countries when things get better is they want to travel.  But, sure getting back to 40 million here could take 10 years.

One problem they may run into is when people do start coming back is a big raise in prices.  Airfare, hotels, food, entertainment raising prices to make up for the current deficit.  Could push some away from here with the reputation of this place being a cheap travel destination.

[Blumpie]

Tourism is tourism.  Tourism is having a safe country to go to for a care free holiday.

It's pretty hard to market a tourist area when the health care system is in tremendous stress and fear from collapsing because of a pandemic.  

People will not travel anywhere like this, full stop.

[RichardColeman]

30 minutes ago, webfact said:

will impact more than seven million workers, some of whom may need to find jobs in other fields, the council said.

Fields , literally

[redwood1]

24 minutes ago, smedly said:

Phuket back to normal in 5 weeks apparently lol

 

Agreed........The Puket sandbox will overflowing with millions in short order.....They might run out of sand....

[ukrules]

Hardly news, but I'll take it - a bit of realism.

[simon43]

Exactly as I predicted last year here on ThaiVisa ????

[Bkk Brian]

Best to make a few hundred of those TAT staff redundant then, or are they going to carry on working from home doing next to zero

[Jeffr2]

Domestic tourism in the US is red hot.  Hotels selling out, can't get rental cars, etc.  Vaccines are the way to go.  Sad Thailand put all it's eggs in one basket.  They're going to pay the price for this....

 

Hopefully, but I doubt it, they'll back away from mass tourism. 

[Pattaya Spotter]

Five years sounds about right.

[Thailand]

Staycations are big business in many countries especially this year but Thailand still is seeking the foreign golden goose. 

 

Concentrate on the tourists that can travel, and that is mainly domestic.

[Destiny1990]

Curious how TAT is going to spin this into good news.

[starky]

19 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Staycations are big business in many countries especially this year but Thailand still is seeking the foreign golden goose. 

 

Concentrate on the tourists that can travel, and that is mainly domestic.

Hard to concentrate on domestic travel in a country where the workers are held down by an elite ruling class and only earn a pittance a day. 

  Thats of course if you still have a job paying a pittance a day

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1218179-thai-q1-jobless-rate-at-12-year-high-amid-virus-outbreaks/

[mfd101]

Tourism realism for 5 minutes, then back to the lazy man's path to bourgeois comfort: Dreams of more tourism!

[ICELANDMAN]

This prediction is realistic and perhaps not yet enough, but the tourist infrastructure must also be considered, which will be abandoned or modified, so in a few years the current tourist infrastructure will be doomed to disappear in large part.

[WineOh]

Where is everyone hiding now who rubbished my claims when I said it will take years for tourism to recover, possibly even a decade or more?

 

my initial bet was 2030. 
 

2026 is a very optimistic number from the government, which of course is understandable as they do not like to be pessimistic when it comes to money. 
 

I’d say that given this recent announcement, my original 2030 proposal is right on the money.

 

cheers, thank you and good night! 

[Poet]

Every survey in the West shows that there is massive pent up demand for exotic foreign travel, and the savings to pay for it.

Thailand could starting ramping up back to mass tourism this summer if they simply announce that they will accept verifiably fully-innoculated visitors on the pre-pandemic visa terms (i.e. no tests, no quarantine, no paperwork, no special insurance etc). Each visitor would need to have credible verification that they received their final jab at least two weeks prior.

400 million people are fully-vaccinated, while another 400m have received a first jab and are waiting for their second. The supply is growing and we expect to have a billion fully-vaccinated humans by the end of June.

The current hold up is the official verification schemes. Israel launched theirs in February, the UK launched theirs earlier this month, and the EU are beta-testing theirs, individual governments will probably roll it out during July. All national schemes will provide the basic info that Thailand needs to know that the holder is not a biological threat to Thailand: date of shot(s) and type of vaccine(s).

To have any sort of high season this year, Thailand should announce during June that, from the second half of the year (July 1st), the doors are wide open to fully-vaccinated tourists who arrive on planes carrying only fully-vaccinated passengers and crew. They won't get anywhere near 2019 levels this year but it will be a start, will give them some sort of high season, will kickstart a complicated industry that has stalled badly, and will pre-empt regional competitors eager to leapfrog them.

 

[RotBenz8888]

12 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Curious how TAT is going to spin this into good news.

That's their top discipline. 

[WineOh]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

will impact more than seven million workers, some of whom may need to find jobs in other fields

Plenty rice fields around my house. Get your boots on and get going ladies and gents!

[simple1]

*Deleted post edited out*

 

Covid related deaths in USA currently 590,000, heading towards 600,000 with further deaths every day. Regards Thailand tourism sector recovery obviously in dependent on source countries. Here in Oz outbound tourism not expected to commence in volume until mid 2022 - previously approx one million Australians p.a. I have noticed on the likes of Agoda, hotel prices in Thailand have risen significantly for 2022.

[mjakob007]

2 hours ago, welshguy said:

At last...some realism is hitting them.

Finally, they got the modeling close facts

[Poet]

18 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Curious how TAT is going to spin this into good news.

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, citing the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

 

[morocco]

hmmm....

[Poet]

Just now, morocco said:

Doesn't compare to the 9 million deaths per year due to hunger. 

I hadn't realized things were going so badly in the US!

[Tony Pak]

Every one not worry ! Hope for the best , Insallah This year start some tourist and 2022 is in full boom. All over world vaccined . God bless All 

[Paul Henry]

Thailand does not have to wait. What pandemic Donald 45 repeatedly said its only another flu and it will just go away. Why all the panic.?

[starky]

4 minutes ago, simple1 said:

Covid related deaths in USA currently 590,000, heading towards 600,000 with further deaths every day. Regards Thailand tourism sector recovery obviously in dependent on source countries. Here in Oz outbound tourism not expected to commence in volume until mid 2022 - previously approx one million Australians p.a. I have noticed on the likes of Agoda, hotel prices in Thailand have risen significantly for 2022.

Hope I'm wrong but Australia is likely to come out of this year's behind the rest of the world. Haven't even experienced a first wave yet. Now we are fairly certain that vaccines aren't the be all and end all, the zero covid strategy and perpetual rolling lockdowns for a handful of cases is more detrimental than anything.