Thailand reports new daily record of 47 coronavirus deaths, 3,323 infections

[Danderman123]

Just now, FarFlungFalang said:

If the numbers of cases remain static then the numbers of death should also remain static but they are rising how do you explain this anomaly?

Nope.

 

it doesn’t work that way in real life.

[Swimfan]

1 minute ago, RobMuir said:

I was told it was the English strain but I hope you are right.

 

The Indian strain isn't as deadly or contagious.

 

I thought the Indian variant was worse than the English one? 1.7 times more infectious?  That’s why the have been desperately trying to keep it out of the country 

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

I was told it was the English strain but I hope you are right.

 

The Indian strain isn't as deadly or contagious.

 

Who told you the UK strain is more deadly per infection?

 

Who told you the Indian strain is less deadly per infection?

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Nope.

 

it doesn’t work that way in real life.

Proof you live in a parallel life?

 

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Proof you live in a parallel life?

 

You really think that the case fatality rate is consistent over time? That impromptu field hospitals are going to have the same CFR as an established hospital? That medical staff don’t get weary over time? That supplies never run out?

okay, please give FFF an alternative explanation for rise in fatalities.

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Danderman123

[AMFWolfie]

5 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thailand's 47 new coronavirus deaths reported on Thursday set a new national record for daily deaths for the second day in a row, following on the prior record 41 deaths reported Wednesday -- only the second time that has happened here thus far in current third wave of the pandemic.

 

The high deaths report came as total new cases of 3,323 exceeded the 3,000 threshold now for five out of the past seven days. But a higher share of that increase came from the 1,219 prison cases, the highest prison total in the past eight days, while the general population case total of 2,104 is the second lowest figure of the past week.

 

The rise in general population cases from 1,976 on Wednesday to 2,104 on Thursday reversed what had been three consecutive days of declining numbers from the record high of 2,922 general population cases reached on May 23.

 

The 47 new deaths reported on Thursday also marked a grim new milestone. The country's daily total for new coronavirus deaths for the first time reached a level roughly equaling the nation's typical daily death toll from road accidents, with Thailand having one of the highest road fatality rates in the world.

 

The last time Thailand set back-to-back daily records for new coronavirus deaths was on April 24 and 25, when the daily totals of 8 and 11 were at the time the highest ever for the country. Thursday's total of 47 more than quadruples the then daily record of 11 deaths set just over a month ago.

 

The record high number of new deaths during the past two days came despite the nation's reported numbers of hospitalized coronavirus patients in critical condition (1,201 as of Thursday) remaining more or less stable at levels slightly below their peaks. In all, though, 46,469 COVID positive patients remain quarantined in Thailand in some type of hospital facility (as shown in the light blue colored box in the chart below), which also set a new record high on Thursday.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/333401381611526

 

 

 

No mention if the prison staff have rushed to get the vaccine to protect them and their families so would guess the prisoners are <deleted>*d and left to their own devices..

 

[anchadian]

Covid vaccine safety: How do vaccines get approved?

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently on its way to authorize another non-Western, Chinese-made Covid-19 vaccine Sinovac (CoronaVac) as pressure grows to distribute more jabs to poorer and countries and those in crisis. However, that process has now been postponed.

 

Why was the Sinovac vaccine postponed? Is a vaccine less safe when it is not approved by the WHO?

 

There has been much hesitancy, both online and offline, around the legitimacy of the Sinovac vaccine in Thailand. While the frustrations around the options and availability of vaccines bear some truth, much of the stigma around Sinovac is baseless even if the WHO approval process has been delayed.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27954/covid-vaccine-safety-how-do-vaccines-get-approved/

[Bkk Brian]

Bubble and seal, clusters, hotspots, Bangkok is not a pretty sight at the moment. It seems a lockdown is off the cards so how long this continues is anybodies guess.

[RichardColeman]

Quarantine free holidays aint looking good for 5 weeks time - yoyo pending

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You really think that the case fatality rate is consistent over time? That impromptu field hospitals are going to have the same CFR as an established hospital? That medical staff don’t get weary over time? That supplies never run out?

okay, please give FFF an alternative explanation for rise in fatalities.

 

 

 

If the cases remain stable then yes the death rate remains stable simple as that. There can be many reasons for a near doubling of deaths over the last couple of days, as in other countries not enough testing would be the primary one as then we just don't know the true number of people who actually have the virus, we only find out after the event with the deaths.

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

If the cases remain stable then yes the death rate remains stable simple as that. There can be many reasons for a near doubling of deaths over the last couple of days, as in other countries not enough testing would be the primary one as then we just don't know the true number of people who actually have the virus, we only find out after the event with the deaths.

Do you also believe that case fatality rate should be the same in all countries that have a similar number of cases?

[Cadan]

any reason why Thailand cant work with incidence numbers per region, city, island etc. ?   Its not that complicated. If the R rate is over 1 measures need to be taken as more people will get infected. if it is below one than people can live with less restrictions as cases will go down...  DID I MISS ANYTHING ? 

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Do you also believe that case fatality rate should be the same in all countries that have a similar number of cases?

Whats that got to do with it? I'm talking about Thailand

[Ian223]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Bubble and seal, clusters, hotspots, Bangkok is not a pretty sight at the moment. It seems a lockdown is off the cards so how long this continues is anybodies guess.

 

 

At some point, I think using the word "cluster" will be less and less relevant and "saturation" will be a more apt description, if it hasn't already.

 

[wensiensheng]

3 minutes ago, Cadan said:

any reason why Thailand cant work with incidence numbers per region, city, island etc. ?   Its not that complicated. If the R rate is over 1 measures need to be taken as more people will get infected. if it is below one than people can live with less restrictions as cases will go down...  DID I MISS ANYTHING ? 

I have never see Thailand’s R rate quoted. Whether that means they don’t calculate it or calculate it but don’t publish it, I have no idea. But I have never seen it.

[Macrohistory]

45 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Actually, late April, when new infections stopped spiking up. 
 

I expect to see the overall infection rate -outside of prisons  and hotspots - continue to slowly decrease. The key metric for me are positive cases from hospital walk-ins, the blue bars in the daily charts (as long as the methodology for that chart doesn’t change).

 

 

Thanks.  I agree with you on the importance of the walk-ins in answering this question, and I had also noticed that the number of walk-in positives had declined or leveled-off.  That's a good sign.

 

But to me, the problem is that there are still around 1,000 people each day who start to feel serious symptoms and so go in to test, then find out they're positive.  These 1,000 people would have been walking around incubating (that is, mass-manufacturing new viruses) for 1-2 weeks before they started feeling sick.  Others (the asymptomatic) never would get to the point that they would feel sick enough to go in, but they would still be manufacturing viruses and walking around.  Maybe they'll be revealed through active testing, or what there is of it.

 

When you have 40 people walking around manufacturing viruses, as in February 2020, it's fairly easy to contain the outbreak, especially when the viruses being manufactured are earlier variants that are harder to transmit.  But when you've got thousands of people walking around and manufacturing these new variants, suppression is orders of magnitude more difficult.  And new hotspots (super spreader events) will pop up all the time, which is exactly what we're seeing.

 

So while I obviously hope you're right, I suspect that at best, we're going to be stuck in the current pattern for many more months.  At worst, hotspots will keep on proliferating to the point that the situation becomes untenable.

 

 

 

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, sungod said:

 

All the strains (UK, India, S.Africa) we have now are far more virulent.  They would have spread anyway, not at the current extent I'll give you that, but 100% avoidable is a ridiculous statement to make.

I said about 100% and yeh that's probably an over-reach but shutting the whole show down and doing real testing and tracing after the Thong Lor spread and not doing the what ever will be will be insanity, right now I don't think we'd be looking at 200,000+ infections and 1000+ deaths which will happen in the very near future.

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

Of the 3,323 new cases that were found in the past 24 hours:

- 1,132 were found via tests at medical facilities

- 951 via proactive tests at known clusters

- 1,219 via tests at prisons

- 21 imported cases

- 47 fatalities (new high)

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1397788672397701124

 

Again at known clusters. Not around. There appears to be no proactive community testing happening and tell me if I'm wrong but there never really has been.

[dinsdale]

47 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

What I said is that deaths lag new infections by 3 weeks, so we would expect to see double digit fatalities for weeks to come, even if new infections completely stopped.

 

I don’t claim to have any insight into why Thailand’s case infection rate was previously so low, nor why it is climbing now.

 

I do. Cover ups, pitifully low testing rates and complete ineptitude.

[Danderman123]

33 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

There can be many reasons for a near doubling of deaths over the last couple of days, as in other countries not enough testing would be the primary one as then we just don't know the true number of people who actually have the virus, we only find out after the event with the deaths.

The question on the table is the Case Fatality Rate - the number of fatalities among positive cases divided by the number of positive cases.

 

I look forward to your explanation of how more testing would change this number.

[Danderman123]

27 minutes ago, Cadan said:

any reason why Thailand cant work with incidence numbers per region, city, island etc. ?   Its not that complicated. If the R rate is over 1 measures need to be taken as more people will get infected. if it is below one than people can live with less restrictions as cases will go down...  DID I MISS ANYTHING ? 

Yes.

 

The R number is impacted by the restrictions. So, the R number might be below 1 today, but drop restrictions and it goes to 5.

[terryofcrete]

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Thailand now number 84 on the covid charts up 35 spots

A Christmas Number One Spot looks on the Cards ! 

[dinsdale]

34 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

If the cases remain stable then yes the death rate remains stable simple as that. There can be many reasons for a near doubling of deaths over the last couple of days, as in other countries not enough testing would be the primary one as then we just don't know the true number of people who actually have the virus, we only find out after the event with the deaths.

One would be an over strained medical system due to this idiot government thinking let it run and vaccines will fix all. Complete and empty headed, pay your way to the top MORONS. Unfortunately freedom of speach here is limited because it's a junta running the show. The truth hopefully will see the light of day as will the origins of this virus.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Province by province breakdown of new COVID cases on Thursday, along with Wednesday's comparable breakdown below for comparison. If a province is not listed, that means it didn't have any new cases that day.

 

Thursday, May 27:

 

 

Wednesday, May 26:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10158042710922050

 

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Danderman123]

14 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Again at known clusters. Not around. There appears to be no proactive community testing happening and tell me if I'm wrong but there never really has been.

This dances around the important point that testing in Thailand is described very poorly.

 

I suspect that what you want to see is random testing of neighborhoods whether or not they are suspected of being hotspots. That may be called proactive testing when it happens.

 

Then there is mass testing of hotspots. That may also be called proactive testing, but it’s not random.

 

There was some proactive testing in Chonburi yesterday, over 1200 tests. This does not include mass testing of known hotspots. As far as I can tell, those 1500 tests resulted in 25 new cases. I have no idea how these fit into the national numbers. The mass testing resulted in another 25 cases from 500+ tests. So, the hotspots were at 5% positivity, the random tests were at less than 2% positivity.

 

There were also 141 tests of close contacts, but I have no idea how this figures into the other numbers, except to make the positivity rates a little lower.

[dinsdale]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The question on the table is the Case Fatality Rate - the number of fatalities among positive cases divided by the number of positive cases.

 

I look forward to your explanation of how more testing would change this number.

You are something my co-poster. Find infections by testing then a: treat and hopefully save the patient and b: stop the spread so there will be less patients. This I would hope would result in a DECLINE in and not remain STATIC in or an INCREASE in the number of both infections and deaths.

[Danderman123]

19 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I do. Cover ups, pitifully low testing rates and complete ineptitude.

Please explain how low testing impacts the Case Fatality Rate.

 

Please proceed.

[Danderman123]

Just now, dinsdale said:

You are something my co-poster. Find infections by testing then a: treat and hopefully save the patient and b: stop the spread so there will be less patients. This I would hope would result in a DECLINE in and not remain STATIC in or an INCREASE in the number of both infections and deaths.

The Case Fatality Rate has 2 components:

 

Positive Cases, and

 

Fatalities among those positive cases.

 

Which of these numbers would be altered by your suggestions?

[dinsdale]

8 minutes ago, terryofcrete said:

A Christmas Number One Spot looks on the Cards ! 

Nooo. India will be or probably already is No. 1. They lost complete control and it's another govt that should be ousted. They allowed a huge festival after which the numbers shyrocketed. Renind you of something?

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

The question on the table is the Case Fatality Rate - the number of fatalities among positive cases divided by the number of positive cases.

 

I look forward to your explanation of how more testing would change this number.

You look forward to that all you want. 

 

Your claim was that deaths do not remain static even if the cases remain static. I've already addressed that.