3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

No, I am looking at the actual numbers, pre-Songkran vs now.

 

https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-who-thailand-situation-report-170-9-april-2021

Try again, your not looking at each province before Songkran and after Songkran.  As I indicated prior to the big travel holiday many provinces had no cases and or had never had a case, but during and after well all 77 did.  Ball is in your court to disprove this.

12 minutes ago, Olmate said:

"Family only" Ryan. Dont see that.. Do you? 

Use the full quote Brian used and not cherry pick words to misquote the post.

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The numbers in Chonburi are in a month long decline. Yes, there are one day blips when a cluster is identified, but the trend is obvious.

 

Do you disagree?

 

Average daily cases in Chonburi have been rising steadily since 20 May.

 

21 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

No, I am looking at the actual numbers, pre-Songkran vs now.

 

https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-who-thailand-situation-report-170-9-april-2021

What is your definition of tiny?

 

How many cases were there in the provinces before the Thong lor cluster was found on the 7th April and how many cases after that and after Songkran?

 

Lets have some facts from you?

 

Its all contained here for yesterdays figures province by province https://media.thaigov.go.th/uploads/public_img/source/280564.pdf

 

Here for figures province by province on the 5th April https://media.thaigov.go.th/uploads/public_img/source/050464.pdf

 

What are the totals?

 

Don't forget that over 90% of cases are from the UK variant.

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Not so good...but 60% are prison cases so easier to contain.

 

Contain?

That is the point, so high numbers bcos so highly contained.

By the photo illustration they arrive to carry on the model into the field hospitals too.

Forget about 1.5m distance, just squeeze the tight, so those who have a mild covid of one kind, may get infected with a different?

21 minutes ago, smedly said:

I trust the UK data, pretty obvious they did not under report and if anything possibly included some deaths that could have been categorized differently, the system in the UK for reporting deaths is vastly more secure and rigid than in Thailand

Actually the UK changed their rules for what counted as a covid death after a couple of months or so, can't remember, but the number went up. Can't remember the details.

2 minutes ago, tingtong said:

 

Contain?

That is the point, so high numbers bcos so highly contained.

By the photo illustration they arrive to carry on the model into the field hospitals too.

Forget about 1.5m distance, just squeeze the tight, so those who have a mild covid of one kind, may get infected with a different?

Because being infected by 2 different Covid19 viruses is so common.

Just now, dinsdale said:

Actually the UK changed their rules for what counted as a covid death after a couple of months or so, can't remember, but the number went up. Can't remember the details.

Wasn't it to do with if they died within 28 days of contracting covid the cause of death was deemed to be covid regardless of any other previous health issues ? I think in Thailand they may be assuming the opposite hence the very low figures.

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Because being infected by 2 different Covid19 viruses is so common.

What a completely irrelevant and deflective post.

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Because being infected by 2 different Covid19 viruses is so common.

Called mutating and changing because one person has one variant and another might have another variant.  Easy to understand what he meant.

3 minutes ago, Excel said:

What a completely irrelevant and deflective post.

“those who have a mild covid of one kind, may get infected with a different?”

 

 

 

 

I was being sarcastic, since Covid-19 infection basically protects against a subsequent infection. It’s not impossible, just extremely rare.

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Try again, your not looking at each province before Songkran and after Songkran.  As I indicated prior to the big travel holiday many provinces had no cases and or had never had a case, but during and after well all 77 did.  Ball is in your court to disprove this.

15-0

3 minutes ago, Excel said:

Wasn't it to do with if they died within 28 days of contracting covid the cause of death was deemed to be covid regardless of any other previous health issues ? I think in Thailand they may be assuming the opposite hence the very low figures.

The only thing I remember is that the numbers were adjusted up and up quite a bit.

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Try again, your not looking at each province before Songkran and after Songkran.  As I indicated prior to the big travel holiday many provinces had no cases and or had never had a case, but during and after well all 77 did.  Ball is in your court to disprove this.

Since this is the Internet, you are operating in an environment where if you find one datapoint in your favor (some province that had zero cases before Songkran and 1 case afterwards) you will feel vindicated.

 

My point is that Songkran had little contribution to provincial numbers. For example, all of Isaan has about the same number of infections now as on April 9. The North has less.

The bulk of new infections outside of prisons is in provinces near Bangkok, ie bedroom communities. The spread there has nothing to do with Songkran.

 

Chonburi infections are focused in factories near Bangkok, nothing to do with Songkran.

 

So, you may try to win Internet points, but you don’t seem to grasp the reality that Songkran travel did relatively little to spread the virus. Ironically, you will continue to spread Doom and Gloom about Bangkok hotspots while wailing about Songkran.

 

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Since this is the Internet, you are operating in an environment where if you find one datapoint in your favor (some province that had zero cases before Songkran and 1 case afterwards) you will feel vindicated.

 

My point is that Songkran had little contribution to provincial numbers. For example, all of Isaan has about the same number of infections now as on April 9. The North has less.

The bulk of new infections outside of prisons is in provinces near Bangkok, ie bedroom communities. The spread there has nothing to do with Songkran.

 

Chonburi infections are focused in factories near Bangkok, nothing to do with Songkran.

 

So, you may try to win Internet points, but you don’t seem to grasp the reality that Songkran travel did relatively little to spread the virus. Ironically, you will continue to spread Doom and Gloom about Bangkok hotspots while wailing about Songkran.

 

Just to go slightly of track a minute.  In another thread you were discussing about returning to the US and coming back here with 60kg of luggage again in August. Can I suggest that you ensure within that large amount of luggage you pack plenty of medication because as you may be aware delusionary symptoms are treatable.????

Since this is a government release, I will post the numbers for April 9, ie before Songkran:

 

401 cases were linked to entertainment venues clusters in Bangkok (82 Thais, 3 Koreans), Chiang Mai (5 Thais), Chiang Rai (2 Thais), Lampang (1 Thai), Nan (1 Thai), Phisanulok (1 Thai), Phetchabun (2 Thais), Nonthaburi (2 Thais), Pathum Thani (3 Thais), Lopburi (1 Thai), Ratchaburi (1 Thai), Samut Sakhon (3 Thais), Phetchaburi (3 Thais), Kanchanaburi (1 Thai), Prachuab Khirikhan (28 Thais), Chonburi (6 Thais, 1 Japanese), Samut Prakan (31 Thais), Rayong (3 Thais), Chachoengsao (2 Thais), Chantaburi (3 Thais), Trat (1 Thai), Sa Kaew (6 Thais), Samut Songkhram (1 Thai), Khon Kaen (5 Thais), Mahasarakam (1 Thai), Udon Thani (6 Thais), Ubon Ratchathani (6 Thais), Surat Thani (1 Thai), and Phuket (2 Thais). 

 

 Those who came into close contact with entertainment cluster infections: Nonthaburi (3 Thais), Pathum Thani (1 Thai), Ratchaburi (1 Thai), Prachuab Khirikhan (1 Thai), Samut Sakhon (1 Thai), Chonburi (8 Thais), Sa Kaew (5 Thais), Samut Prakan (5 Thais), Chantaburi (1 Thai), Nakhon Ratchasima (4 Thais), Phuket (1 Thai) 

 

 Not linked to entertainment venues clusters: Bangkok (40 Thais, 1 Iraqi, 1 Myanmar national, 1 Lao, 1 French), Chiang Mai (10 Thais), Nakhon Sawan (1 Thai), Nonthaburi (4 Thais, 1 Myanmar national), Pathum Thani (7 Thais), Saraburi (1 Thai), Petchaburi (1 Thai), Khon Kaen (1 Thai), Nakhon Patom (1 Thai), Chonburi (5 Thais, 2 Japanese), Udon Thani (4 Thais), Nakhon Ratchasima (2 Thais), Buriram (8 Thais), Chaiyaphum (2 Thais), Chumpon (4 Thais), Sa Kaew (2 Thais), Samut Sakhon (2 Thais, 3 Myanmar nationals), Samut Prakan (4 Thais), Lopburi (2 Thais), Ratchaburi (2 Thais), Rayong (3 Thais), Surat Thani (3 Thais), Songkhla (5 Thais)

 

end

 

So, I will let you find a province not on this list that had a case after Songkran, so you feel vindicated.

 

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Since this is the Internet, you are operating in an environment where if you find one datapoint in your favor (some province that had zero cases before Songkran and 1 case afterwards) you will feel vindicated.

 

My point is that Songkran had little contribution to provincial numbers. For example, all of Isaan has about the same number of infections now as on April 9. The North has less.

The bulk of new infections outside of prisons is in provinces near Bangkok, ie bedroom communities. The spread there has nothing to do with Songkran.

 

Chonburi infections are focused in factories near Bangkok, nothing to do with Songkran.

 

So, you may try to win Internet points, but you don’t seem to grasp the reality that Songkran travel did relatively little to spread the virus. Ironically, you will continue to spread Doom and Gloom about Bangkok hotspots while wailing about Songkran.

 

Please read carefully. Kalasin had no covid before Songkran. Now it's 106 with 2 deaths.

1 minute ago, Excel said:

Just to go slightly of track a minute.  In another thread you were discussing about returning to the US and coming back here with 60kg of luggage again in August. Can I suggest that you ensure within that large amount of luggage you pack plenty of medication because as you may be aware delusionary symptoms are treatable.????

Say, aren’t you the fellow who blames Covid spread on Songkran, when 90% of the community cases are in and around Bangkok?

10 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Please read carefully. Kalasin had no covid before Songkran. Now it's 106 with 2 deaths.

Sorry, here is the April 12th Covid19 situation map, clearly showing cases just about everywhere. Of the 1,000 cases reported, over 600 were in the provinces, only 400 in Bangkok. Yeah, I know, now somebody is going to complain that Songkran brought the virus into Bangkok from the provinces.

Note: the previous map I posted was from 2020.

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Say, aren’t you the fellow who blames Covid spread on Songkran, when 90% of the community cases are in and around Bangkok?

No not at all. I blame the covid spread on close contact with infected people. In fact I am of the opinion that the government figures have always been farcical for well over a year and if testing had been undertaken appropriately the numbers would have been far far higher then has ever been published by the government. That said Thailand even now has been fortunate that the number of deaths have been lower bound compared to many other countries, why ? who knows, but fingers crossed it will remain that way because as much as it passes the time for us to argue and bitch between ourselves, that is irrelevant compared to the heartbreak caused to family and friends due to a death from Covid.

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Since this is the Internet, you are operating in an environment where if you find one datapoint in your favor (some province that had zero cases before Songkran and 1 case afterwards) you will feel vindicated.

 

My point is that Songkran had little contribution to provincial numbers. For example, all of Isaan has about the same number of infections now as on April 9. The North has less.

The bulk of new infections outside of prisons is in provinces near Bangkok, ie bedroom communities. The spread there has nothing to do with Songkran.

 

Chonburi infections are focused in factories near Bangkok, nothing to do with Songkran.

 

So, you may try to win Internet points, but you don’t seem to grasp the reality that Songkran travel did relatively little to spread the virus. Ironically, you will continue to spread Doom and Gloom about Bangkok hotspots while wailing about Songkran.

 

Its 93% to do with Songkran, UK variant all came from the 7th April in Bangkok. Check totals of all infections in all provinces then and now, not the current daily cases the actual totals.

 

You've got the data available to you but fail to use it and instead spread your point that it is a tiny proportion. Its laughable if it wasn't so sad.

 

Showing the case totals in just one period is not how it works, you need a comparison between then and now.

 

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Sorry, here is the April 8th Covid19 situation map, clearly showing cases just about everywhere.

My apologies. There was 1 if I remember correctly maybe 2. Nevertheless it increased post songkran. 70 infections and 2 deaths in the 2 wks following Songkran.

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Most of the new infections are in the greater Bangkok area or prisons. Nothing to do with Songkran.

Since Songkran was over 6 weeks ago I suppose new infections are not directly related... but the late April surge in Chonburi, pushing the area into deep red lockdown, May 1st,  certainly was. 

13 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Since Songkran was over 6 weeks ago I suppose new infections are not directly related... but the surge in Chonburi, pushing the area into deep red lockdown late April  certainly was. 

You mean the surge on April 10 of 141 cases? Isn't April 10 before Songkran? 

 

24 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Sorry, here is the April 12th Covid19 situation map, clearly showing cases just about everywhere. Of the 1,000 cases reported, over 600 were in the provinces, only 400 in Bangkok. Yeah, I know, now somebody is going to complain that Songkran brought the virus into Bangkok from the provinces.

Note: the previous map I posted was from 2020.

 

So what's your point with this Songkran red herring?  Are you saying that it was a sensible idea for the PM to encourage travel during Songkran?

 

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You mean the surge on April 10 of 141 cases? Isn't April 10 before Songkran? 

 

Still not getting it are you, Songkran travel contributed to the spread that started when they found the UK variant.

 

Thailand’s leading virologist has warned that the upcoming Songkran festival could result in a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1212685-songkran-could-bring-new-wave-of-covid-19-infections-top-virologist-warns/

 

3 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

So what's your point with this Songkran red herring?  Are you saying that it was a sensible idea for the PM to encourage travel during Songkran?

 

Not a big factor, since the virus had already spread to the provinces. Not worthy of 2,000 mentions here. 

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Still not getting it are you, Songkran travel contributed to the spread that started when they found the UK variant.

 

Thailand’s leading virologist has warned that the upcoming Songkran festival could result in a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1212685-songkran-could-bring-new-wave-of-covid-19-infections-top-virologist-warns/

 

He was wrong. The horse had already left the stable. 

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You mean the surge on April 10 of 141 cases? Isn't April 10 before Songkran? 

 

That was from the long weekend associated with Chakri  day. 

Just now, Danderman123 said:

He was wrong. The horse had already left the stable. 

Yes of course he was, Thailand's leading virologist was wrong because you said so..................????

 

Similar to you not believing that the CFR can fluctuate due to testing, until your have 4 scientific studies to prove you wrong.