Covid lockdowns Globally

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, Fromas said:

 

Extraordinary claim.

 

Proof?

Still waiting for your infection/case temporal graph for Sweden, not static snapshots of different countries (judiciously avoiding mention of her neighbors).

 

 

Extraordinary is rather that you'd try to cast doubt on the fact that Tegnell was under huge pressure from pro-lockdown quarters in Sweden. It's well documented, look it up.

 

Incidentally, Tegnell himself was very clear on what the reason for the rising numbers was, which was not lack of lockdown but rather:

 

"He reiterated that the agency’s assessment is that the reason for the increasing spread of the virus is declining compliance with existing recommendations and restrictions."

 

And, as I said above:

 

"Nilsson Carlsson reported a rise week-on-week in infection rates among elderly people receiving at-home care, and said this highlighted the need to continue focusing on vaccinating the most vulnerable people in society."

 

https://www.thelocal.se/20210325/pressure-on-swedens-healthcare-increases-as-covid-19-patients-in-icus-rise-to-292/

 

Of course another factor is that Sweden suffered from the same vaccine shortage as Germany, due to the EU's lawyers' failure in securing vaccines from suppliers.

 

[Logosone]

10 minutes ago, Fromas said:

 

the majority of which locked down hard WHEN?

 

And what is the data of infection RATES in those countries?

Do you have trouble distinguishing RATES versus static snapshots?

 

 

 

Of course the infection rate itself is merely a snapshot in time, nothing wrong with that.

 

Yes, the majority of EU countries which have a HIGHER number of deaths per head than Sweden did lock down hard, you can look up the dates. Sweden did not for a long time and still had less deaths per head than those countries that did lock down, and continues to have less deaths per head.

[sandyf]

On 6/2/2021 at 9:08 AM, cclub75 said:

More seriously, you have no scientific proof whatsoever that lock downs are "working"

Take it historical doesn't count?

 

With coronavirus putting households around the world in lockdown, can the English "plague village" of Eyam, which quarantined itself for more than a year, offer us lessons on how to fight back?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-51904810#:~:text=When plague arrived in September,And suffer they did.&text=For 14 months pestilence%2C pitiless,seemingly random%2C ravaged the village.

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Take it historical doesn't count?

 

With coronavirus putting households around the world in lockdown, can the English "plague village" of Eyam, which quarantined itself for more than a year, offer us lessons on how to fight back?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-51904810#:~:text=When plague arrived in September,And suffer they did.&text=For 14 months pestilence%2C pitiless,seemingly random%2C ravaged the village.

 

Interesting link about Eyam, but of course it does not provide any evidence that lockdowns work whatsoever.

 

"For 14 months pestilence, pitiless and seemingly random, ravaged the village.Deaths reached six a day, with one woman losing six children and a husband in just over a week. The graveyard was shut and bodies were dragged into fields for burial.Traditional estimates put the death toll at about 260 - 75% of the population"

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-51904810#:~:text=When plague arrived in September,And suffer they did.&text=For 14 months pestilence%2C pitiless,seemingly random%2C ravaged the village.

 

Leaving aside the 260% death toll, a typo I presume, it looks like this village suffered terribly due to the lockdown, however, there is no data provided in this article whether this lockdown stopped the wider spread of the plague. The plague's spread of course continued in other parts, despite Eyam's lockdown.

 

What is interesting though is that Eyam created a plague epicentre and even within these horrible plague infested places the plague disappeared eventually after 14 months. So you can say this is because of the measures, but then it also disappeared in other places which did not take these measures, so one can not really say any measure in Eyam led to the plague's disappearance.

 

One interesting point: "The main lesson here is that before imposing control measures to stop the spread of an infectious disease, it is essential to understand the way it spreads.

 

"There is often more than a single route of transmission, in which case it becomes important to estimate the relative importance of the various routes."

 

So you need to have certain facts before a measure like lockdown can be a success. I note experts even now are debating whether this virus is airborne or not.

[James105]

2 hours ago, Fromas said:

 

What is your basis for comparing the two states? Choice of time period? The exact same points of pandemic spread? Inbound-outbound population (especially international)?

 

Lockdowns don't work. In the absolute sense (they don't work at all, Covid is not an airborne disease) or in a practical sense (they were mandated but compliance was a problem, social cost is too high)? What do you mean by "work" or "don't work"?

 

 

Lockdowns destroy lives and cause (and will cause) hundreds of thousands of excess deaths globally, not to mention the devastation on anyone who owns a business in the tourist or hospitality sector - people who support lockdowns tend to forget that people die from other things than covid.  Once the impact of wealthy countries locking down and not spreading the wealth the numbers of deaths from lockdowns will be in the millions due to poverty.  Based on the impact of lockdowns I think the bar should be set very high and I would want to see a difference between countries or states that did and didn't lockdown.   I used those 2 states as they have the same demographics, wealth, climate and healthcare.

 

So all other things being equal (climate, wealth, healthcare, demographics) if lockdowns and masks were in any way effective as people say they are then California would have significantly less cases, less deaths per million than Florida... right?    Why is this not the case?   My conclusion is that lockdowns achieve nothing more than not locking down and letting people judge the risk for themselves as is obviously the case in Florida.   Those that are scared get to hide behind their sofa and get food/supplies delivered, whilst the rest of us carry on with our lives and support the hospitality industry.

[Fromas]

23 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Tegnell himself was very clear

 

I understand now. The King of Sweden, he was wrong. The Swedish health authorities, they were wrong. Tegnell, he's right.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

the infection rate itself is merely a snapshot in time

 

This statement, more than anything else, shows that you do not possess even a basic grasp of statistics. It is also a poor attempt at deflection. Bring up the data showing rates and the results or non-results of intervention.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Fromas

[Fromas]

1 minute ago, James105 said:

So all other things being equal (climate, wealth, healthcare, demographics) if lockdowns and masks were in any way effective as people say they are then California would have significantly less cases, less deaths per million than Florida... right?    Why is this not the case?

 

James, could you bring up the data showing rates of infection in Ca and Fl. over the periods you are comparing?

 

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, Fromas said:

 

I understand now. The King of Sweden, he was wrong. The Swedish health authorities, they were wrong. Tegnell, he's right. This statement, more than anything else, shows that you do not possess even a basic grasp of statistics. It is also a poor attempt at deflection. Bring up the data showing rates and the results or non-results of intervention.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know what your obsession with the King of Sweden is. I wouldn't take health advice from any Royal. Maybe his royal title gives you some warm feeling, it does not for me.

 

Tegnell worked in Zaire during the 1995 Ebola epidemic, and then served as an expert on infectious diseases for the European Union before being hired by the Swedish public-health agency, in 2013. I think I'll take the word of the leading epidemiologist in Sweden over some inbred Royal or indeed your own.

 

Tegnell was right when he did not go overboard with lockdowns. Both before Sweden's lockdown and now deaths per head were lower in Sweden, and continue to be so, than in almost all EU countries which used hard lockdown.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

Edited June 4, 2021 by Logosone

[Captain Monday]

There was never any kind of real lockdown in the continental United States, only  closures.

Intercity and interstate travel was never impeded. In a real lockdown one may only leave home for essential proposes on a limited basis and there are checkpoints and road blocks. I think this may have occurred on island territories like PR , Guam for sure  and  Hawaii. South Dakota etc,. thought they were special, then they had Sturgis 2020. We have simply, too much freedom. Not suited to pandemics

[Fromas]

1 minute ago, Logosone said:

now deaths per head were lower in Sweden, and continue to be so, than in almost all EU countries which used hard lockdown.

 

You don't have data, or assume, how lockdown changed the RATE of infection in Sweden?

 

I surrender. Too many deflections, and anti-establishment anti-science to cut through.

 

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

 

Andres Tegnell, leading epidemiologist of Sweden, worked in Zaire during the 1995 Ebola epidemic, and then served as an expert on infectious diseases for the European Union before being hired by the Swedish public-health agency, in 2013. He...has often said that lockdowns are not supported by science...

 

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment

[Fromas]

OMG! Appeal to human authority!

 

Have you called up the Swedish authorities yet?

 

Have you brought your data?

 

Have you even read your article in full?

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Fromas

[Logosone]

Tegnell and the public-health agency finally recommended wearing masks—but only on public transit and only during rush hour. (Tegnell sees distancing as the most important barrier to the virus—“Masking is not a golden bullet,” he said—and only recommends the use of masks where distance cannot be maintained.) Days after this new rule was passed, I asked Tegnell whether he still thought the evidence for masks was “sketchy.” “Yes,” he responded. “Unfortunately, there is not much new evidence in place.” But he told me that he had decided that it was better not to take chances. “Due to the developments we see, we need to use even measures where evidence and effect is low,” he said. 

 

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment

 

And thus lockdown in Sweden.

[Rampant Rabbit]

On 6/1/2021 at 11:52 PM, Pla nin said:

there were no aeroplanes then

Plenty of  boats and trains though.

[Fromas]

For the last time, where's your data, Logosone?

 

Since you bring up that article, what do opponents of Tegnell say?

 

What does the data show?

 

RATES vs CUMULATIVE TOTAL. Do you genuinely not know the difference?

Our discussion ends here. You struck out a long time ago with your multiple deflections, false premises and straw men.

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Fromas

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, Fromas said:

For the last time, where's your data, Logosone?

 

Since you bring up that article, what do opponents of Tegnell say?

 

What does the data show?

 

RATES vs CUMULATIVE TOTAL. Do you genuinely not know the difference?

Our discussion ends here. You struck out a long time ago with your multiple deflections, false premises and straw men.

 

I already posted data, and you chose to ignore it Fromas. I wonder why. Hence no need to pretend you want to interpret data further.

 

You already posted what opponents of Tegnell say, I already posted links that set this out quite clearly.

 

The data shows that before and after adopting lockdown Sweden had less deaths per capita than most European countries who decided to use lockdown.

 

Yes, I know the difference, but I prefer Incidence figures.

 

You will not post anymore, oh no, how will I survive? You crush my last happiness, Fromas. Oh you mean strawmen like rates on Mars? Lol.

[Fromas]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Hence no need to pretend you want to interpret data further.

 

Jab away.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

You already posted what opponents of Tegnell say

 

I didn't post what they say. I don't care about pro- or anti-. I gave you the facts.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, I know the difference, but I prefer Incidence figures.

 

So you know where to obtain rate graphs but you are deliberately ignoring that data. You probably have good reasons for that, or not!

 

 

Ok. We're done.

 

 

Over to you, Jeffr2! ????

 

 

[Logosone]

15 minutes ago, Fromas said:

 

Jab away.

 

 

 

I didn't post what they say. I don't care about pro- or anti-. I gave you the facts.

 

 

 

So you know where to obtain rate graphs but you are deliberately ignoring that data. You probably have good reasons for that, or not!

 

 

Ok. We're done.

 

 

Over to you, Jeffr2! ????

 

 

Oh you mean facts like the opinion of a Swedish royal, ????.

 

You can pretend you don't care about either side, but you're actually very obviously highly pro-lockdown. 

 

It's you who's ignoring the data. If you wish to comment on Sweden having less deaths per capita then most EU countries who locked down hard, please feel free to do so. You probably have a good reason not to, though!

Edited June 4, 2021 by Logosone

[cdemundo]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

I note experts even now are debating whether this virus is airborne or not.

Yes, but airborne is a technical term easily misinterpreted.

What experts agree on is simpler.

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-transmission-overview#1-2

"Experts believe the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads mainly from person to person. There are several ways this can happen:

Droplets or aerosols. This is the most common transmission. When an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks, droplets or tiny particles called aerosols carry the virus into the air from their nose or mouth."

[NaamGin]

I'll just leave these here... 

 

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/stanford-study-lockdowns-have-no-significant-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-may-even-spread-it

 

https://fee.org/articles/mit-data-scientist-lockdowns-not-correlated-with-fewer-deaths-but-are-correlated-with-more-unemployment/

 

https://news.ifindfast.com/germanys-coronavirus-lockdown-not-responsible-for-pandemic-decline-study-finds

 

 

[millymoopoo]

On 6/2/2021 at 12:52 AM, Pla nin said:

As cruel as this sounds lockdowns won't achieve anything

Cruel and ill-informed, just look at Australia..!
Lockdowns work in 2 ways, assisting in preventing the spread and allowing time for contact tracing.

Finding and quarantining the infected works.
But proper lockdowns with closed borders are required for them to work, not the half hearted efforts without closed borders instigated by conservative governments, eg: U K.

[Fromas]

2 hours ago, NaamGin said:

I'll just leave these here... 

 

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/stanford-study-lockdowns-have-no-significant-effect-in-reducing-covid-19-may-even-spread-it

 

https://fee.org/articles/mit-data-scientist-lockdowns-not-correlated-with-fewer-deaths-but-are-correlated-with-more-unemployment/

 

https://news.ifindfast.com/germanys-coronavirus-lockdown-not-responsible-for-pandemic-decline-study-finds

 

 

 

This is good because at least there is discussion of data instead of abstraction.

 

These are, however, in the minority. There are 100s of studies. If you can locate these studies, you can locate the rest. I'd encourage you to read the studies directly. The press reports can be skewed.

 

 

[4MyEgo]

On 6/3/2021 at 3:17 PM, atpeace said:

With that said, it is strange how people are so vested in being right, they can't grasp reality.  What fool would think lockdowns haven't minimized the spread?  Maybe there is an argument for at what cost but doubt it.

 

I believe lockdowns do reduce the spread of the virus for that period, however we cannot say that lockdowns don't damage people's businesses, incomes, mental state of mind, scheduled treatments for illnesses (surgery) delayed and new ones required. 

 

Lockdowns in my opinion are a necessary to reduce the spread, but the way lockdowns have been put in place is like a jail sentence, they haven't affected me or my family because we live in the bush in a big house, but what about those in small 50 square metre apartments and less with no balconies, others in slightly bigger apartments not being able to use a gym or swimming pool.

 

Lockdowns should have been planned better IMO, one size doesn't fit all, but at the end of the day, this virus has and will continue to spread regardless of lockdowns, which again reduce it from spreading further, even though it has been proven that family members/friends living together did spread it amongst themselves during the lockdowns, but not to outsiders, (containment).

 

Is this an exercise that has been in the planning for a long time, (Gates & others), I don't know, but it will go down in history as one of the biggest F-ups by governments worldwide in my opinion, but there is light at the end of the tunnel so I read with vaccines being the Holy Grail for most, let's not forget those boosters in coming years yawl.  

Edited June 5, 2021 by 4MyEgo

[Chosenfew]

It’s very simple:

Fat, old and unhealthy people, hide in your house.

Everyone else, mask up and go about your business.

Look at California and Florida or Sweden and Denmark… one locked down and the other didn’t, no statistical difference.

[Fromas]

9 minutes ago, Chosenfew said:

California and Florida or Sweden and Denmark… one locked down and the other didn’t, no statistical difference

 

All these places had lockdowns at different times. Yes, even Florida.

 

No statistical difference is a bold claim. Look at each place's historical data. Even studies that found lockdowns ineffective had to explain away the dips (modeling, correlations, confounding factors). If you claim no dips at all, you're looking at a different set of data.

 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Fromas

[atpeace]

3 minutes ago, Chosenfew said:

It’s very simple:

Fat, old and unhealthy people, hide in your house.

Everyone else, mask up and go about your business.

Look at California and Florida or Sweden and Denmark… one locked down and the other didn’t, no statistical difference.

What one worked and what did not?  I think, emphasize think, you are making your point by comparing FL and CA.  Simply, lockdowns do work but at what expense?  The expense is what is hard to measure.

[simon43]

As a scientist, I have to say that hard lockdowns work to halt the spread of any infectious disease, but not the half-hearted, 'just-for-show' lockdowns in many European countries, where so many of the population ignored the rules.

 

Here in Laos, we had a hard lockdown last year when the virus first appeared in China.  Stay at home for 1 month, only allowed out one time per day to buy food.  That lockdown worked and the virus disappeared from the country.

 

Then this year, illegal crossings from Thailand to Laos brought back the virus.  Into another hard lockdown, with barriers set up on roads to stop people leaving their villages.  That lockdown worked again, and the virus is all but gone, except for infections brought by citizens returning from overseas.

 

Fortunately, vaccinations have been well underway for months, with donated vaccines from Covax, Russia, China etc.  Laos has porous borders, and will never stop this infection being brought into the country from overseas.  Hence the urgency to vaccinate the population, especially those most at risk.

 

Personally, I fully support physical beatings by police of those who break the mask-on, social distancing etc rules, just as is done in Cambodia.  You can't teach 'stupid', but a bit of pain seems to get the message across ????

 

 

[ChrisKC]

Interesting to compare the "Spanish" flu with the current one but probably unfair to suggest that there is much in common with the circumstances.

 

 

A very brief account:

 

It started in the USA via the Military who then took it into Europe. The Spanish were not subject to reporting restrictions so they have carried the can for reporting first.

 

There was a world war going on

 

Technology of communications

 

Medical developments and improved treatments over 100 years

 

Serious suppression of reporting (because of the war)

 

It is possible therefore to believe Covid may involve 500 million infections, though over a longer period than the Spanish flu and many fewer deaths arising from reasons mentioned above.

 

This story in various forms is available for all to read

 

 

[DerbyDan]

we need lockdowns until everyone is vaccinated. its not rocket science.

[Fromas]

16 hours ago, James105 said:

Lockdowns destroy lives and cause (and will cause) hundreds of thousands of excess deaths globally

 

There are knock-on consequences of lockdowns, some good, some bad. Good example: if lockdowns lead to dips in covid infections and death, the same could be said of flu deaths. Bad example: more stress, more suicide.

 

It's complicated!

 

You need to look at historical data, to investigate the effect on the RATE of infection. To use a physical example: Harry and Sally both got cut in a car crash. Harry used a tourniquet, but not Sally. Both bled the same amount of blood. Could you say that the tourniquet was useless for Harry? You couldn't unless you review the whole period of time. Perhaps Harry bled very badly and was saved by the tourniquet. Perhaps Harry applied the tourniquet wrongly and bled more (possible!). You have to review the historical data.

 

Incidentally, you mention FL had no lockdown. They did tighten the screws (not the same period as CA). Have a look at that too.