Gloom and Doom, revisited.

[swissie]

Joke: In the "great depression" 1929 there was this lady in New York asking a bystander: "Where is the nearest public toilet"? Bystander: Oh lady, right here, just around the corner. Lady: "Don't give me that Hoover-Talk, I really have to go".
-----------------------------------------------------
On a more serious note:
After a slow start, the vaccination pace is increasing. AND: There is no other place on this globe like Pattaya. Imitations available, but not topping the original. Those 2 factors are likely to serve as a "quick revival turbo".

- When everybody (including his uncle) proclaims that the "end is near", historically this was always a good time to buy and a very bad time to sell. Applicable to Stocks/Commodities/Real Estate and every other item that is traded within a "market-economy". Especially when a wave of "forced-liquidations" is in progress, this is usually a reliable sighn that a "market-bottom" is being established. Seems to be the case in Pattaya.

Therefore: To start any business venture in Pattaya would be NOW. And not 6 months from now when everybody (including his uncle) has reached the conclusion "that the worst is over". Because by then, prices for viable businesses will already have increased by 30% compared to todays "rock-bottom" prices.

No issue for me these days. But if I were 40 years younger, it would be. Definitely!  Boom and bust. Buy low, sell high.

[Halfaboy]

Any recommendations ?

[chalawaan]

Save KINK club for me. I'm a big kahuna upstairs there.

[Leaver]

17 hours ago, swissie said:

After a slow start, the vaccination pace is increasing. AND: There is no other place on this globe like Pattaya. Imitations available, but not topping the original. Those 2 factors are likely to serve as a "quick revival turbo".

 

I agree, but put simply, around 45,500,000 Thai's have to be full vaccinated before tourism can start to open up here. 

 

Vaccinating that amount of people, twice, takes time.  

 

This will have to happen for the safety of Thai's, and so Thailand will be considered safe to travel to by various foreign offices around the world.  

 

17 hours ago, swissie said:

- When everybody (including his uncle) proclaims that the "end is near", historically this was always a good time to buy and a very bad time to sell. Applicable to Stocks/Commodities/Real Estate and every other item that is traded within a "market-economy". Especially when a wave of "forced-liquidations" is in progress, this is usually a reliable sighn that a "market-bottom" is being established. Seems to be the case in Pattaya.

 

Pattaya has not yet reached the bottom.

 

There will be more key money and leases due before tourists and profits return to Pattaya.  This will ultimately cause more closures.  

 

17 hours ago, swissie said:

Therefore: To start any business venture in Pattaya would be NOW. And not 6 months from now when everybody (including his uncle) has reached the conclusion "that the worst is over".

 

Would you buy a 3 year lease on a commercial property in Pattaya NOW, knowing no tourists in any significant numbers will be coming here for about 30% to 50% of the duration of the lease, which equates to around 12 to 18 months?  

 

17 hours ago, swissie said:

Because by then, prices for viable businesses will already have increased by 30% compared to todays "rock-bottom" prices.

 

Where do you think all the demand, virtually overnight, is going to come from?  

 

Due to the high rents here, the margins are so fine that without a Pattaya back in full swing, there is no chance of viability. 

 

A commercial rental market correction will be needed, or places will just sit derelict until tourism to Pattaya is back to near pre covid, which could take years.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Leaver

[swissie]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I agree, but put simply, around 45,500,000 Thai's have to be full vaccinated before tourism can start to open up here. 

 

Vaccinating that amount of people, twice, takes time.  

 

This will have to happen for the safety of Thai's, and so Thailand will be considered safe to travel to by various foreign offices around the world.  

 

 

Pattaya has not yet reached the bottom.

 

There will be more key money and leases due before tourists and profits return to Pattaya.  This will ultimately cause more closures.  

 

 

Would you buy a 3 year lease on a commercial property in Pattaya NOW, knowing no tourists in any significant numbers will be coming here for about 30% to 50% of the duration of the lease, which equates to around 12 to 18 months?  

 

 

Where do you think all the demand, virtually overnight, is going to come from?  

 

Due to the high rents here, the margins are so fine that without a Pattaya back in full swing, there is no chance of viability. 

 

A commercial rental market correction will be needed, or places will just sit derelict until tourism to Pattaya is back to near pre covid, which could take years.

 

 

 

 

As I mentioned, it all depends on the pace of vaccinations. In Europe we are now vaccinating at a record pace. With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone. A mathematical phenomenon called "exponential decay" is taking place. Soon, even Thailand will get is't "vaccination act" together.

Currently an international Vaccination-Certificate is in the making. Can't see Thailand not accepting this certificate when most other tourist destinations do. Once this Quarantaine obstacle is removed, BKK-Airport will be very busy again, in no time at all.
But again, the pace of vaccinations is the (only) deciding factor. After that, all other factors will fall into place. Even in Pattaya.

[swissie]

18 hours ago, Halfaboy said:

Any recommendations ?

Lulu's Bar & Grill & Massage.

Soi Anywhere

Pattaya, Thailand.

[thaiflyer1]

12 minutes ago, swissie said:

 With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone.

Somebody forgot to tell the UK

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-records-5274-new-covid-cases-highest-daily-figure-since-march-2021-06-03/

Edited June 4, 2021 by thaiflyer1

[BenDeCosta]

Yes, the time to be greedy is when others are fearful. You don't get rich without taking some chances.

 

You could sink a few million baht into opening a business in Pattaya, and if the restrictions are lifted in a month or two, you could be set-up for life. But the cynic in me thinks that this lunacy is going to continue for quite a bit longer yet.

 

Maybe when some major Western countries start removing all covid restrictions and getting back to normal life, that should be the green light for you to go ahead and invest. I don't think that I would want to start a business there, there are too many unknowns and I don't know who'd need brown envelopes, and how big they'd need to be. One of my friends had a bar in Pattaya on Beach Road many years ago, when I went to visit him he was almost in tears because he'd put everything into the place but it was losing money hand over fist despite being a really nice bar.

[rcuthbert]

I would look for waterfront condo deals. Just make sure that are no vacant lots in front.

[Kaoboi Bebobp]

Well, Retox Game On, one of the nicest pub/restaurants in town, just announced about 4 hours ago it will NOT be reopening. Go to their FB page, to see the announcement from Colin. 

 

Very sad day.

Edited June 4, 2021 by Kaoboi Bebobp

[Leaver]

15 hours ago, swissie said:

As I mentioned, it all depends on the pace of vaccinations. In Europe we are now vaccinating at a record pace. With the result that "new infections" are dropping like a stone. A mathematical phenomenon called "exponential decay" is taking place. Soon, even Thailand will get is't "vaccination act" together.

Currently an international Vaccination-Certificate is in the making. Can't see Thailand not accepting this certificate when most other tourist destinations do. Once this Quarantaine obstacle is removed, BKK-Airport will be very busy again, in no time at all.
But again, the pace of vaccinations is the (only) deciding factor. After that, all other factors will fall into place. Even in Pattaya.

 

I think you are only focusing on the vaccination rates in Europe. 

 

It wouldn't matter if everyone was vaccinated in Europe, today, and they all had 10 certificates each to prove it.  None of them will be holidaying to Thailand until around 45,500,000 Thai's have been vaccinated, twice.   

 

Currently, they have vaccinated around 2% of Thai's.  They have about another 63% still to be vaccinated.  

 

Later this month, the world will get to see Thailand's vaccination roll out capabilities, and from there, some idea of when Thailand may open the borders can be roughly predicted, and notice I used the word "may" not "will."   

[swissie]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I think you are only focusing on the vaccination rates in Europe. 

 

It wouldn't matter if everyone was vaccinated in Europe, today, and they all had 10 certificates each to prove it.  None of them will be holidaying to Thailand until around 45,500,000 Thai's have been vaccinated, twice.   

 

Currently, they have vaccinated around 2% of Thai's.  They have about another 63% still to be vaccinated.  

 

Later this month, the world will get to see Thailand's vaccination roll out capabilities, and from there, some idea of when Thailand may open the borders can be roughly predicted, and notice I used the word "may" not "will."   

What is the purpose of a vaccination? To prevent getting infected. Currently available vaccines are highly effective. So, for a vaccinated Tourist, it is of lesser importance if 18% or 48% of the Thai population is vaccinated or not.

Case in point: Very soon, vaccinated Europeans will be allowed to travel freely in the entire Schengen aerea. Thailand can not afford to remain a "Corona island" forever.

[Leaver]

24 minutes ago, swissie said:

What is the purpose of a vaccination? To prevent getting infected.

 

This is where you are wrong.

 

The purpose of vaccination is to stop you getting very sick from covid, and therefore dying from covid. 

 

Vaccination DOES NOT stop you from catching covid and spreading covid. This is why it does not matter if YOU are vaccinated, if the population of the country your are traveling to ARE NOT vaccinated.  

 

28 minutes ago, swissie said:

Currently available vaccines are highly effective.

 

Some are more effective than others.  

 

Sinovac in not the most effective.

 

28 minutes ago, swissie said:

So, for a vaccinated Tourist, it is of lesser importance if 18% or 48% of the Thai population is vaccinated or not.

 

Wrong.

 

For a vaccinated tourist, it's very important, because it means you will not be going to Thailand until at least 65% of the Thai population have be vaccinated.  

 

30 minutes ago, swissie said:

Case in point: Very soon, vaccinated Europeans will be allowed to travel freely in the entire Schengen aerea. Thailand can not afford to remain a "Corona island" forever.

 

Thailand can not afford to open unsafely and become a "hub" for covid transmission.  

[swissie]

23 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

This is where you are wrong.

 

The purpose of vaccination is to stop you getting very sick from covid, and therefore dying from covid. 

 

Vaccination DOES NOT stop you from catching covid and spreading covid. This is why it does not matter if YOU are vaccinated, if the population of the country your are traveling to ARE NOT vaccinated.  

 

 

Some are more effective than others.  

 

Sinovac in not the most effective.

 

 

Wrong.

 

For a vaccinated tourist, it's very important, because it means you will not be going to Thailand until at least 65% of the Thai population have be vaccinated.  

 

 

Thailand can not afford to open unsafely and become a "hub" for covid transmission.  

Your theory of how the virus spreads must be flawed.

BECAUSE: If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.

Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.

I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.

[Leaver]

31 minutes ago, swissie said:

Your theory of how the virus spreads must be flawed.

BECAUSE: If your theory were correct, there is no way that the EU would soon allow for free travel in the entire Schengen Aerea for vaccinated persons.

Up to you if you want to insist on your theory, but you must realise that your theory is in stark contrast to the findings of all the EU health ministries plus vaccine-manufacturerers.

I do not think the EU would allow free travel, risking to be labeled as the "mass murderers of the century" later on.

 

It's not my theory, it's a fact.  

 

The citizens of the country you wish to travel to, in this case, Thailand, need the same protection against potentially infected tourists during the window period in which they may be asymptomatic.  

 

When Thailand's borders will open, so you can come to Thailand, in now in the hands of the Thai's, and their vaccination program. 

 

You will know more in a few weeks of Thailand's vaccination rate capabilities, and by that, you will know roughly when you can come to Thailand.  

 

Edited June 6, 2021 by Leaver

[TaaSaparot]

Just now, Leaver said:

 

It's not my theory, it's a fact.  

 

The citizens of the country you wish to travel to, in this case, Thailand, need the same protection against potentially infected tourists during the window period in which they are asymptomatic.  

 

Problem is, there is so much <deleted> covering,  no one knows what the truth is.

[Leaver]

3 minutes ago, TaaSaparot said:

 

Problem is, there is so much <deleted> covering,  no one knows what the truth is.

 

There's also some politics involved.  

 

No government, of any country, wants to be seen on the world stage as putting their citizens at risk.  Much easier, although costly in the terms of lost tourism revenue, is to have the population vaccinated before opening borders.  

 

With the Thai government not giving any substantial financial assistance to the people, they can afford to remain closed.  

[Pilotman]

OP, not sure what you are drinking, or smoking, but i would like some of that so that I can live in la la land as well. ????

[TaaSaparot]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

No government, of any country, wants to be seen on the world stage as putting their citizens at risk. 

 

Unless you can tax it.

[DerbyDan]

not really, you don't know where the bottom is in pricing (and when) until it starts recovering. ????

Edited June 6, 2021 by DerbyDan

[1FinickyOne]

sure. open a buggy whip factory. 

[Scouse123]

On 6/4/2021 at 2:26 PM, Leaver said:

 

 

 

Where do you think all the demand, virtually overnight, is going to come from?  

 

Due to the high rents here, the margins are so fine that without a Pattaya back in full swing, there is no chance of viability. 

 

A commercial rental market correction will be needed, or places will just sit derelict until tourism to Pattaya is back to near pre covid, which could take years.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, Yes and yes!

 

And there you have it in a nutshell.

[jippytum]

Depending on the type of business i would not deter you from investing in Thailand.The gloom and doom merchants who think places like pattaya and the businesses therein are gone forever are mistaken.

A large proportion of the worlds population are craving a holiday and when the virus danger reduces and travel opens up there will be a mad rush of people coming to Thailand.

However be careful what you wish for.  Personally i am enjoying Thailand very much without the hoards of Chinese that will certainly descend upon us in the not too distant future.

[Scouse123]

I look on Baht sold regularly out of boredom and for what is around and I can still see that there are those expecting a miracle whereby they can get their investment back by the prices they are asking and thinking somebody will pay for them.

 

If it is a freehold condo or a business that is freehold property and going in a fire sale as they are desperate for money or want the minimum so they can walk away with something before the bank takes it, then fair enough. Leasehold bars etc? forget it!

 

However, what I am seeing in adverts is not reflecting that. Still people dreaming of recouping their cash.

 

I have just bought another house, in .........the UK!.......... Steady and certain.

 

No plans for anything here unless as stated above, freehold and fire sale.

[Thaitruth]

If you are planning on opening a lunatic asylum than it's a sure fire winner!

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, jippytum said:

Depending on the type of business i would not deter you from investing in Thailand.The gloom and doom merchants who think places like pattaya and the businesses therein are gone forever are mistaken.

A large proportion of the worlds population are craving a holiday and when the virus danger reduces and travel opens up there will be a mad rush of people coming to Thailand.

However be careful what you wish for.  Personally i am enjoying Thailand very much without the hoards of Chinese that will certainly descend upon us in the not too distant future.

 

Pattaya wasn't doing so well pre covid.  

[Colabamumbai]

You have no customers, unless your selling masks and jel. 

[HashBrownHarry]

On 6/4/2021 at 2:26 PM, Leaver said:

 

I agree, but put simply, around 45,500,000 Thai's have to be full vaccinated before tourism can start to open up here. 

 

Vaccinating that amount of people, twice, takes time.  

 

This will have to happen for the safety of Thai's, and so Thailand will be considered safe to travel to by various foreign offices around the world.  

 

 

Pattaya has not yet reached the bottom.

 

There will be more key money and leases due before tourists and profits return to Pattaya.  This will ultimately cause more closures.  

 

 

Would you buy a 3 year lease on a commercial property in Pattaya NOW, knowing no tourists in any significant numbers will be coming here for about 30% to 50% of the duration of the lease, which equates to around 12 to 18 months?  

 

 

Where do you think all the demand, virtually overnight, is going to come from?  

 

Due to the high rents here, the margins are so fine that without a Pattaya back in full swing, there is no chance of viability. 

 

A commercial rental market correction will be needed, or places will just sit derelict until tourism to Pattaya is back to near pre covid, which could take years.

 

 

 

 

Are you going to leave?

[talahtnut]

The only profitable business' will be Clinics and Funeral parlours.

If everyone had put a hammer through their 'Idiots lantern' two

years ago there would have been no 'pandemic'.

[Poet]

On 6/6/2021 at 2:03 PM, swissie said:

Your theory of how the virus spreads must be flawed.

Trust me, there is no point having a discussion with that guy. He makes the same illogical claims in many threads and, no matter how patiently you try to point out reality, he takes nothing onboard.

You are absolutely correct. Western tourists who are fully-vaccinated, with effective Western vaccines, and coming from countries with low levels of infection (by July) pose no biological risk to the Thai public, regardless of whether the Thai public are vaccinated, and the Thai public pose no danger to the vaccinated tourists.