When is the right time to buy property in Bangkok?

[RandolphGB]

I've lived and worked in Bangkok for around three years and always rented in that time. At this point I'm not ready for settling down with a house and family but starting to think more about getting an apartment in the city. 

 

What's the average length of time expats live in Bangkok before thinking about buying?

 

Prices don't seem to have fallen much during the current pandemic downturn, so that seems to be irrelevant to getting a good deal.

 

Does anybody have thoughts on buying condos / apartments in Bangkok? Risks and benefits. How long does the paperwork processing take for a cash buyer?

 

Rising sea levels seems a possible issue, too. Also losing visa residency is a risk. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Excel]

If I were you I would wait a while for two reasons. Firstly the economy will shortly be heading for freefall I suspect so hence many foreigners will be having fire sales. Secondly when this happens buy a 2nd or 3rd floor apartment so that a few years later you will have the benefit of a waterfront property with direct access from your balcony. ????

[Surelynot]

Personally I would have said around the 12th of never.......only ever rent! But if you insist on buying I would say now before the vaccine roll out begins to look as if it might be successful.

[spidermike007]

There is little doubt the effects of the pandemic, the idiotic economic shutdown, and the sabotage of the tourism industry is going to have long term effects and lead to a contraction of the economy, and will likely be more devastating than the 1997 economic crisis. 

 

Many bought with cash here, and it will take awhile for them to realize this will take years to turn around. Condo sales have ground to an absolute halt. Give it some time. Likely prices will drop significantly over the next few years. Espacially in Bangkok, Samui and Phuket. Just wait. 

[NCC1701A]

24 minutes ago, RandolphGB said:

Rising sea levels seems a possible issue, too.

for now, just worry about crossing the street. 

[Pottinger]

In thirty-four years I have never bought, always rented. My means are modest and so are my wants, and rents have always been very reasonable in Thailand. I see no point in buying, particularly with the current bunch of clowns in charge, hell-bent on running the country into the ground. If you must do it, and you have faith that a turnaround will eventually come, now or now abouts is not a bad time to buy - I see on Thai-language websites that there are an awful lot of people over-exposed to property debt at the moment, which they are unable to service having lost their jobs, and offering discounts of 10-25% to buyers and renters. Trying to pick the bottom of any market is a fraught business though.

[holy cow cm]

Maybe when they find out their last reel in the rich foreigners visa scheme yet again falls flat and dead is when condo builders will have to start to think about brining the pricing down when they cannot clear the glut. There won't be a continual safety net for these builders under the government protective banking system forever.

[NCC1701A]

55 minutes ago, RandolphGB said:

Does anybody have thoughts on buying condos

if you are buying a condo in Thailand, Bangkok is the best place to do it. 

 

if you are buying place to live, then just buy the best deal. if you are trying to invest in real estate your time frame before you sell may be at least a decade or more.  Fire sale crash and burn all over Thailand now but good luck getting anyone to admit it. 

 

if you are reading a for sale ad in English you are paying to much already. Get a Thai friend to search for fire sales. it can be done. 

 

 

[RandolphGB]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

if you are buying a condo in Thailand, Bangkok is the best place to do it. 

 

if you are buying place to live, then just buy the best deal. if you are trying to invest in real estate your time frame before you sell may be at least a decade or more.  Fire sale crash and burn all over Thailand now but good luck getting anyone to admit it. 

 

if you are reading a for sale ad in English you are paying to much already. Get a Thai friend to search for fire sales. it can be done. 

 

 

 

Good point. Thai language ads are the way to go then. Same rule probably applies to renting, too. 

 

It would be to live for the next few years before selling / letting out as an investment. 

 

Renting somewhere half-decent  for that same period would cost 1.5m baht +, so it seems better to buy. 

 

 

[Acharn]

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

for now, just worry about crossing the street. 

You know you've lived in Bangkok too long when you look both ways before crossing the sidewalk.

[BoganInParasite]

Based purely on environment factors (it's sinking and the sea is rising), I would not buy in Bangkok.

[Aussieroaming]

I bought a new condo in Bangkok 3 years ago. There were 20 of this configuration (3 bed/2 bath) in the building and the developer wanted 16m baht for the apartment, as that was supposedly what the others that were identical in size and design sold for. There were 2 apartments remaining and my wife offered 12.8m for one of them as it was on a relatively high floor for this building, which was then accepted by the developer as they wanted to close the books on the condo building. This apartment was unfurnished with no window dressing at that price. I estimate it would have lost at least another 20% since I bought here. Definitely not a smart investment unless you want a long term home. The loss based on Covid and also 5 newer condos now also finished and accepting tenants in this area.

 

But we are situated in a relatively good area in regards to transport, shopping, food options and leisure park access, all of which were included in the decision making. 

 

Would I buy in Bangkok again? No.

[Robin]

Do not only think of buying, thing if you have to sell.  I do not think that the BKK property market is very liquid so it will take time to find a buyer with the cash.  Then how would you get the cash out of Thailand..

What you buy in Thailand you might well have to leave in Thailand.

At least renting, if Thailand takes a turn for the worse, you can just up and away.

If you buy propery in your G/f's name you could be even worse off.

[BananaGuy]

When is the right time to buy property in Bangkok?

 

When you've got :-

(1) lots and lots and lots of money and

(2) very few if any other better ideas

 

DM me if you need help with (2) i have a few ideas may take care of (1) for you too.

[Airalee]

Depends on many factors.

 

1.  The P/E ratio (price to rent)

2. Opportunity cost (especially if a cash purchase)

3. Finding that needle in a haystack good deal.

4. How long you plan on living in it.

5. Occupancy rates if you decide to rent it out. Haven’t you noticed how empty the buildings are?  Even before Covid?

 

The main real estate websites (Such as Hipflat) are neither Thai nor Farang centric.   Before buying my condo (last year) I looked on the more Thai oriented websites and found that the prices were the same.  You’re not guaranteed in any way to get a better deal from a Thai.  In fact, you might find it harder to find a Thai owned condo that is in the foreign 49% quota.
 

My old landlord was a Farang and always beat the prices of the Thai owned condos for rent in my building.  His would get rented, theirs wouldn’t.   That being said, he’s having a tough time renting them out now even listed at a 30% discount to pre Covid prices (and still priced much lower than the Thai listings)…and these are nice,  high floor (30+), good view units in a good location near the Phra Khanong BTS.

[spidermike007]

Only buy at 30-50% off last years prices. 

 

A friend of mine recently moved to Pattaya. He looked at condos in Jomtien. He walked into one of the nicest towers, looked at a 36th floor unit with panoramic views, and when he was quoted 28,000 a month, he offered 10,000. They settled on 13,000. He said the agent more or less admitted the building was nearly empty, and they could not rent or sell anything, at this time.

 

There are alot of projects in Bangkok, suffering the same fate. 

[Caldera]

I have never considered buying in Bangkok and don't see any reason to change that. The reason being, if I invest the money elsewhere and rent instead, I come out on top, with the added benefit that I can move without delay or loss if changes in the neighborhood aren't to my liking.

 

There are also secondary aspects,  such as uncertainty with regards to my long-term plans and the prospect of Bangkok going under.

 

The only real benefit that I see in buying a condo is that you are completely free to customize it as you see fit. For me personally, not enough to change my mind. 

[worgeordie]

The best time to buy ...is when you find a bargain, in a good location,

so just keep on looking.

regards worgeordie

[OneMoreFarang]

15 minutes ago, Caldera said:

The only real benefit that I see in buying a condo is that you are completely free to customize it as you see fit. For me personally, not enough to change my mind. 

That is the reason why I think about buying one.

For me it seems too many places have too many rooms squeezed into a given space. I.e. 100sqm with 3 bedrooms...

How about 100sqm with one bedroom and one baht? It seems that doesn't exist. 

[DaLa]

6 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That is the reason why I think about buying one.

For me it seems too many places have too many rooms squeezed into a given space. I.e. 100sqm with 3 bedrooms...

How about 100sqm with one bedroom and one baht? It seems that doesn't exist. 

That's exactly what the large building companies in the UK started doing in the 70's.  The rooms  (especially the bedrooms ) were tiny; but they could list as 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, dining room, sitting room and kitchen . That was the marketing, no mention of area.  They even used to furnish them with 4/5 ths scale beds , ie. 4 foot wide and try to pass it as a double.  My last house was 4000 sq foot and 3 beds and didn't feel overly spacious.  I'm now in a moo bahn in Nonthaburi and the rooms are a reasonable size.  I was going to bring my cat out here to try gauging the size of the rooms  but it was going to be too hot for him.

 

Glad I passed on buying a condo here for many reasons, lifts, size, noise, external space, charges and fees.

[wordchild]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That is the reason why I think about buying one.

For me it seems too many places have too many rooms squeezed into a given space. I.e. 100sqm with 3 bedrooms...

How about 100sqm with one bedroom and one baht? It seems that doesn't exist. 

100 sqm 1 bed, yes they do exist, but you have to look at older (10yr up) developments.

To the OP , personally i would wait, (possibly for a long time!)  and i speak as someone who bought in Bangkok a few years ago. These days , i am neither a seller nor a buyer, so no particular axe to grind. 

IMHO its still too early and  (my impression) most sellers have yet to adjust their expectations  to the reality of this environment. In the meantime the condo developers keep adding stock to the pile.

You might get lucky and find a needy and desperate seller right now but my best guess would be that there will be many more around this time next year, and possibly even more  another year after that. Also , the real quality condos, in the best developments, are not yet fully discounted, but they will be, eventually.

Housing markets usually adjust slowly, unlike ,say, stock markets; my best guess is that we are entering a long slow grind down for Bangkok property and it could be a number of years before things bottom out.  

 

[newnative]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That is the reason why I think about buying one.

For me it seems too many places have too many rooms squeezed into a given space. I.e. 100sqm with 3 bedrooms...

How about 100sqm with one bedroom and one baht? It seems that doesn't exist. 

      That's the reason my partner and I like to buy, too.   100sqm 1 bedroom with one bath condos are definitely harder to find.  I think most buyers would be expecting, and wanting, 2br/2ba with that size.  Our condo project in Pattaya has 1 bedroom/1 bath units of 79 and 80 sqm.  It's an older project, built when unit sizes were generally larger.  The project in Bangkok has an 80sqm unit model 1 bedroom/2 bath unit but it's a loft with the bedroom on the second floor.  

     If you lived in Pattaya I would suggest one of the View Talay projects.  Their projects came with the units as shells and buyers finished the spaces as they wished.  Some of the units in these projects are 100sqm or more in one big space with one bath.  Interior walls can be installed or the space left open.

[NightSky]

What no one has mentioned so far is the massive inflation trend that’s starting worldwide.

 

governments are borrowing at record levels to pay for coronavirus and materials/commodity prices are in limited supply and increasing.

 

inflation will be a big factor in cost of real estate over the next 5-10 years

 

wait until rents rise to follow and see if some long term renters convert to buyers 

 

read this again in 5 years and let me know if I was right or not

[wordchild]

56 minutes ago, NightSky said:

What no one has mentioned so far is the massive inflation trend that’s starting worldwide.

 

governments are borrowing at record levels to pay for coronavirus and materials/commodity prices are in limited supply and increasing.

 

inflation will be a big factor in cost of real estate over the next 5-10 years

 

wait until rents rise to follow and see if some long term renters convert to buyers 

 

read this again in 5 years and let me know if I was right or not

well ok , i will try to remember to check back in!

i would agree about construction costs, eg the  iron ore price  (used for rebar in concrete) has pretty much tripled over the last 2 years. However, build costs are only part of the equation, its the land cost (plus the developers margin) which are  the biggest contributors to underlying housing costs.

In recent years land cost inflation , in Bangkok, has been running pretty hot. It has now, finally, started to slow and land  prices have started to  fall in many parts of the city.  Some of  the  land prices paid  by developers ,in recent years, are starting to look pretty scary (for them!). 

Eventually   these trends will feed through into end house and condo pricing. This, together with the last 5 or 6 years of significant overbuild ,combined with the covid related demand destruction do not make for a bullish outlook. Just my opinion, obviously!

 

 

 

 

[blackcab]

A troll post has been removed.

[Airalee]

1 hour ago, NightSky said:

What no one has mentioned so far is the massive inflation trend that’s starting worldwide.

 

governments are borrowing at record levels to pay for coronavirus and materials/commodity prices are in limited supply and increasing.

 

inflation will be a big factor in cost of real estate over the next 5-10 years

 

wait until rents rise to follow and see if some long term renters convert to buyers 

 

read this again in 5 years and let me know if I was right or not

I (as a buyer last year) hear what you’re saying, however, I think that central banks are fighting deflation (via people defaulting on their debt) currently.  
 

When I look at what is available and the prices asked for most of the condos, I see that I can get better deals (compared to the US$400-700k  50sqm condos for sale here) back in Los Angeles and Seattle (both much wealthier cities) than Bangkok.  I think that they massively overbuilt and were far too optimistic with their pricing which shows by the slow sales (even before Covid). 
 

The P/E ratios here are absurdly out of whack.  When a condo is selling for 300-400x a realistic monthly rent, something has to give.  I don’t see rents rising very quickly as the incomes here just won’t support them.  Mortgage rates can’t go much lower in order for Thais to be able to afford them either.  

 

Also, when looking at the long term interest rates on government bonds, I don’t see inflation being priced in.

 

I was lucky when I bought as I purchased a contract from a buyer who had to walk away from a substantial portion of his deposit which is the only reason I got a comparatively good deal. (About 25% less than the 2016 presale price and 30% below what the developer is currently asking for the same unit 4 floors below me).  I don’t expect to make any “profit” when selling either, but it was the right unit for me.  I don’t think I could duplicate my deal easily (even now) and wouldn’t want 99% of the other condos for sale out there (in my price range) for numerous reasons that aren’t even price related.

 

Sure, rents will possibly rise over the next 5 years, but I would bet on sales prices coming down even further before that.

[Heng]

10 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

How long does the paperwork processing take for a cash buyer?

 

Direct from the developer or 100% equity owner, it can be less than 2 weeks or even a 1 day transaction (chanote in hand + cashiers check in hand deals).   From an owner who is still mortgaged, could be 30 days or more with the main delay being that you're at the mercy of the bank's schedule. 

[Foexie]

hI RandolphGb?

 

I would think NOW is the time.

 

I have a Thai friend who works in real estate for a very long time and she say now the market is almost dead. And also that rich Chinese try to buy many RE for dumping prices.

 

She also say that many foreigners try to get rid of their RE but can't find any buyers.

 

She works area Jomtien/Pattaya so i am not sure it is same every where. But this is there because of covid19 so i have a feeling it is the same every where in Thailand. 

 

So i would give it a shot if you see something you like and start bid low.

 

Good luck,

 

Foexie

[Why Me]

As others have pointed out the typical rent/price ratio in Bkk makes purchase a poor choice financially.

 

Typical example my place: 65sqm., 2 bed/bath, 15th floor, wraparound balcony, 5 min. from the Victory Monument BTS. This is a purely rental building but equivalent units in the area go for 150k/sqm. min (probably lot more, haven't checked in years). So my unit would be 9mil say. Rent I pay is 20k/mth which has been the same 10 years + about 5k water/electric. So that's 300k/year. Which is less than 4% of the buy prices. Few years back when I went with a realtor to look at units along the VM-Moh Chit stretch it was similar rent/price all through and even lower for new condos.

 

In contrast, long term return on the most conservative investment in the market, e.g., a broad-based index, brings 7%/annum inflation-adjusted long term. Which means renting instead o buying makes 3%/year on capital. Incidentally, these figures aren't true in the west, at least the US, where R/P is much higher plus owners get tax breaks on mortgage payments.

 

So I dont see the point of buying here except of course for pride of ownership and a bit of (Thai-style) status.

[smutcakes]

I bought after about 13 years of renting, and it coincided with me submitting and getting approval for PR. Very happy with my decision, love my condo and the process was all very smooth.

 

If you are going to be here long term, and you see something you like to live in it may just be best to bite the bullet- who knows what will happen in the next few years- there is always a reason why the price might go up and down- so buy when you see something you like and then forget about the price and enjoy living there for the next 20-30 years or however long you want. If the price goes up or down in that period it is what it is.

 

I remember looking at property around Chidlom 10-12 years ago and being quoted prices at 100,000 THB per sqm and thinking that was insane. That condo is now selling at 230.000 THB per sqm if properties ever even come to the market.

 

I ended up pay 305,000 THB per sqm- will it increase, will it decrease? Who knows, all i know is that i love living there and for me at least its worth every penny.