Phuket Sandbox Reopening

[madmitch]

14 hours ago, Airalee said:

I was reading something about 12,000 hotel nights booked (over 12 days)…so, roughly 1000 rooms.  
 

Seeing that Phuket had 84,700 rooms as of 2018* that would put occupancy rates at approximately 1.2%.  

 

One point two percent.  

 

Better not break out the champagne just yet.

 

*source…. https://www.hvs.com/article/8714-HVS-Market-Pulse-Phuket-Thailand

Only about 300 of these hotels have SHA+ approval. Maybe 20000 rooms between them? Still only 5% but that will improve.

 

But that oft-quoted 84,700 rooms does not include the hundreds of budget hotels and guesthouses on the island, also Airbnb type establishments, most of which will gain absolutley nothing from the sandbox scheme.

[stevenl]

7 hours ago, digibum said:

No hype?  LOL.  Ok.  
 

Hype is what TAT does.  

From your answer I can only conclude my statement is correct.

[jomtienisgood]

On 7/4/2021 at 10:32 PM, shdmn said:

The doom mongers want it to fail so bad they are getting desperate now. Trying to turn it into a conspiracy or whatever.  "OMG, there are no pictures of tourists on beaches.  It all must be fake news!".

It's not fake news, just very sad news....

[connda]

On 7/5/2021 at 1:37 AM, digibum said:

Not sure if I’m able to quote the source on TVF (now ASEAN Now forums) but you can try googling “TAT revises down Phuket Sandbox arrivals, estimated revenue” 

Revised down to 100,000 during the High Season.  I think that's an optimistic number even allowing for the next six months until the end of the year.
But domestic tourism will save that day <fireworks, marching bands, VIP photo-ops> with a half a million "person-visits" which aren't necessarily tourists¹.  So it sound like if anyone who is not labelled a resident crosses the bridge they will be added to the total of 'person-visits' which imho is massively padding the numbers.  Sounds as though they will be counting the non-resident hired-help and employees, people living off-island with business or familial interests on the island, and every other non-tourist who regularly moves back-and-forth between the mainland and the island into the total numbers. 
That simply reeks of desperation.  More New Normal reality altering exercises, not that we don't have enough already.

 

^{1. search "TAT revises down Phuket Sandbox arrivals"}

Edited July 6, 2021 by connda

[connda]

13 minutes ago, connda said:

Revised down to 100,000 during the High Season.  I think that's an optimistic number even allowing for the next six months until the end of the year.
But domestic tourism will save that day <fireworks, marching bands, VIP photo-ops> with a half a million "person-visits" which aren't necessarily tourists¹.  So it sound like if anyone who is not labelled a resident crosses the bridge they will be added to the total of 'person-visits' which imho is massively padding the numbers.  Sounds as though they will be counting the non-resident hired-help and employees, people living off-island with business or familial interests on the island, and every other non-tourist who regularly moves back-and-forth between the mainland and the island into the total numbers. 
That simply reeks of desperation.  More New Normal reality altering exercises, not that we don't have enough already.
 

I can see why.  They haven't memory-holed the TAT estimates of arrivals vs the actual arrival reality.  TAT estimates were 1500 arrivals on July 1¹ and arrival reality was 326 total (ouch - missed that by a factor of 5).  They then doubled-down and reported 1324 arrivals over the first three days² (that sounds better!). 
There is a lesson here for unbridled optimists:  TAT is simply showing there inability to handle the glaring reality of the impact of draconian rules and regulations on overall tourist arrivals, hence, the government bean-counters starts counting anyone who crosses the bridge, lands on the shores, and flies in - for any reason - as 'person-visits.' 
There no doubt will be a huge celebration and VIP photo-ops with elbow-bumping and awards come the New Year memorializing the numerical success (whoopee!) of the New Normal Sandbox tourism scheme!

 

<sup>1. search "TAT claims 1,500 travellers arriving in Phuket July 1"
2. search "1,324 arrive in Phuket Sandbox"</sup>

Edited July 6, 2021 by connda

[BostonRob2]

100,000.....500 a day in July, 1000 a day in August and 2000 a day in September.....voila mes petites.

[dave s]

On 7/5/2021 at 10:28 AM, stevenl said:

There has never been a hype, it was always meant to be a slow start, a trial. Only in the mind of posters here were huge numbers announced for the start of the program, there were not.

 

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/tat-looks-forward-to-welcoming-129000-foreign-tourists-to-phuket
2021/05/13
"The Tourism Authority of Thailand says it expects 129,000 tourists to arrive on the southern island of Phuket in the first 3 months of its re-opening. ... TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn expects around 30,000 – 40,000 tourists a month, through Phuket’s sandbox model, with the primary target being long-haul markets. According to Yuthasak, 7-day packages in Phuket will be on offer for a somewhat eye-watering 150,000 – 200,000 baht per visitor, a significant increase on the 50,000 baht average spending per trip prior to the pandemic."
129000 arrivals over 3 months is 43,000 a month.
92 days in July through September ("third quarter", or 31+31+30) is 1402 per day. Early on it was 1,500 per day.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/14-day-phuket-stay-cuts-predicted-sandbox-arrivals-in-half
2021/06/10
"The government still hopes to attain its goal of 129,000 international travelers in the third quarter of 2021, despite cutting the estimation of arrival in July from 29,700 to only 14,850 after blow-back from the 14-day rule. They believe that an increase of arrivals in August and September will allow them to still reach that goal."

14,850 is exactly half of 29,700.
129,700 minus that half is 14850 for July.
14,850 in 31 days is 480 per day.
129,000 less 14,850 actual in July leaves 114,150 needed in August and September.
114,150 in 61 days (31+30) 1,871 per day.

Is it reasonable to expect a jump from 480 to 1,871?

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-tourism-set-sluggish-reboot-phuket-stutters-sandbox-2021-06-18/
2021/06/18
"The government hopes the Phuket Sandbox will draw 129,000 visitors to the country in the third quarter - a far cry from the average 3.3 million monthly arrivals to Thailand in 2019. Typically, a quarter of Thailand's visitors go to Phuket. ... The island's hotel association has projected a gradual increase in occupancy to 30%-40% towards year-end, rising from 10%-20% over July-October, which includes local bookings."

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/tourism-authorities-expect-600-000-tourists-from-phuket-sandbox-80406.php
2021/06/20
"Phuket Governor Narong Woonciew said the TAT predicted about 129,000 foreign tourist arrivals and 500,000 Thais will visit Phuket between July and September, said a report by state news agency NNT."

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/tat-revises-down-phuket-sandbox-arrivals-estimated-revenue-80480.php
2021/06/28
"According to an official report of the meeting, TAT Governor Yuthasak explained that the TAT now expects 100,000 foreign tourist arrivals during the third quarter this year, down 29,000 on estimates given as recently as last week. The 100,000 foreign tourists are expected to generate B8.9 billion for the Thai economy, Mr Yuthasak said."
100000/(31+31+30)=100000/92=1,087
88900000000/100000=8890000
88900000000/600000=148167
"Of note, with the TAT now recognizing “person-visits” and not expressly domestic tourists, the expected number of domestic arrivals appears to now include people who travel to Phuket not just solely for tourism, and now shows an increase from the 500,000 expected domestic tourist arrivals during the third quarter just over a week ago."

So, has the government always lied by counting every delivery truck driver as a "tourist", or is this a new development?

 

https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-thailand-pandemics-lifestyle-travel-36e1f45062ae6244c45bf88c997d4927
2021/07/01
"Fewer than 250 international travelers were expected on the first day compared to the initial target of 1,500."

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/flights-and-passenger-numbers-slowly-rising-in-phuket-sandbox
2021/07/04
So Phuket airport claims a maximum capacity of 330 flights per day.  There is no room for a second runway, which certainly cannot be ready this year, and no big space for another airport closer than Phang Nga.
330 flights in 24 hours is about 14 per hour.
14 flights in 60 minutes is about 4 minutes each.
But a plane needs to land and then take off again: 28 flights in 60 minutes is about 2 minutes each. Both of these are possible depending on things like wake turbulence and relative plane weight. 60 and 90 seconds apart is pushing it.

108,791 people per day
If in a normal year Phuket gets 3,300,000 people per month, in 3 months that is 9,900,000 people, or in 91 days about 108,791 per day. The more recent expectations quoted above are about 1% of that. The actuality of about 300 or 400 per day is a fraction of that 1%.
About 108,791 people on 330 flights is slightly less that 330 per airplane. Possible, depending on the airplane used.

 

So, back and forth among estimates over the months of 1,500 or 1,400 or 480 or 1,871 or 1,087 or 250 or ...

[dave s]

.

Edited July 6, 2021 by dave s
multiple posts appeared after "gateway error"

[dave s]

So, there have been no really wild huge estimates, huh?!?

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1221287-foreign-arrivals-in-july-146000-and-ten-times-more-by-december-says-transport-minister/

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by dave s
multiple posts appeared after "gateway error"

[zzzzz]

all you nay savers:
looks like the sandbox will be a success to all that arrive.  many great posts form happy people arriving on the island on fb

 

Daily report for the #PhuketSandbox: On 6th July, 217 international travellers arrived on four flights bringing the total to 2,113. No positive Covid-19 tests yet. 19 have had 2nd test. 118,685 room nights have been booked in SHA+ hotels up until September.

 

 

[stevenl]

7 hours ago, dave s said:

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/tat-looks-forward-to-welcoming-129000-foreign-tourists-to-phuket
2021/05/13
"The Tourism Authority of Thailand says it expects 129,000 tourists to arrive on the southern island of Phuket in the first 3 months of its re-opening. ... TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn expects around 30,000 – 40,000 tourists a month, through Phuket’s sandbox model, with the primary target being long-haul markets. According to Yuthasak, 7-day packages in Phuket will be on offer for a somewhat eye-watering 150,000 – 200,000 baht per visitor, a significant increase on the 50,000 baht average spending per trip prior to the pandemic."
129000 arrivals over 3 months is 43,000 a month.
92 days in July through September ("third quarter", or 31+31+30) is 1402 per day. Early on it was 1,500 per day.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/14-day-phuket-stay-cuts-predicted-sandbox-arrivals-in-half
2021/06/10
"The government still hopes to attain its goal of 129,000 international travelers in the third quarter of 2021, despite cutting the estimation of arrival in July from 29,700 to only 14,850 after blow-back from the 14-day rule. They believe that an increase of arrivals in August and September will allow them to still reach that goal."

14,850 is exactly half of 29,700.
129,700 minus that half is 14850 for July.
14,850 in 31 days is 480 per day.
129,000 less 14,850 actual in July leaves 114,150 needed in August and September.
114,150 in 61 days (31+30) 1,871 per day.

Is it reasonable to expect a jump from 480 to 1,871?

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-tourism-set-sluggish-reboot-phuket-stutters-sandbox-2021-06-18/
2021/06/18
"The government hopes the Phuket Sandbox will draw 129,000 visitors to the country in the third quarter - a far cry from the average 3.3 million monthly arrivals to Thailand in 2019. Typically, a quarter of Thailand's visitors go to Phuket. ... The island's hotel association has projected a gradual increase in occupancy to 30%-40% towards year-end, rising from 10%-20% over July-October, which includes local bookings."

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/tourism-authorities-expect-600-000-tourists-from-phuket-sandbox-80406.php
2021/06/20
"Phuket Governor Narong Woonciew said the TAT predicted about 129,000 foreign tourist arrivals and 500,000 Thais will visit Phuket between July and September, said a report by state news agency NNT."

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/tat-revises-down-phuket-sandbox-arrivals-estimated-revenue-80480.php
2021/06/28
"According to an official report of the meeting, TAT Governor Yuthasak explained that the TAT now expects 100,000 foreign tourist arrivals during the third quarter this year, down 29,000 on estimates given as recently as last week. The 100,000 foreign tourists are expected to generate B8.9 billion for the Thai economy, Mr Yuthasak said."
100000/(31+31+30)=100000/92=1,087
88900000000/100000=8890000
88900000000/600000=148167
"Of note, with the TAT now recognizing “person-visits” and not expressly domestic tourists, the expected number of domestic arrivals appears to now include people who travel to Phuket not just solely for tourism, and now shows an increase from the 500,000 expected domestic tourist arrivals during the third quarter just over a week ago."

So, has the government always lied by counting every delivery truck driver as a "tourist", or is this a new development?

 

https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-thailand-pandemics-lifestyle-travel-36e1f45062ae6244c45bf88c997d4927
2021/07/01
"Fewer than 250 international travelers were expected on the first day compared to the initial target of 1,500."

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/phuket/flights-and-passenger-numbers-slowly-rising-in-phuket-sandbox
2021/07/04
So Phuket airport claims a maximum capacity of 330 flights per day.  There is no room for a second runway, which certainly cannot be ready this year, and no big space for another airport closer than Phang Nga.
330 flights in 24 hours is about 14 per hour.
14 flights in 60 minutes is about 4 minutes each.
But a plane needs to land and then take off again: 28 flights in 60 minutes is about 2 minutes each. Both of these are possible depending on things like wake turbulence and relative plane weight. 60 and 90 seconds apart is pushing it.

108,791 people per day
If in a normal year Phuket gets 3,300,000 people per month, in 3 months that is 9,900,000 people, or in 91 days about 108,791 per day. The more recent expectations quoted above are about 1% of that. The actuality of about 300 or 400 per day is a fraction of that 1%.
About 108,791 people on 330 flights is slightly less that 330 per airplane. Possible, depending on the airplane used.

 

So, back and forth among estimates over the months of 1,500 or 1,400 or 480 or 1,871 or 1,087 or 250 or ...

Thanks. And now please read properly, 'first 3 months' 'third quarter' etc. Nowhere does it say 'thousands will flock to Phuket on the first day'.

[zzzzz]

and so it begins:  still not bad 7 days 1 positive out of 2,113
A fully vaccinated tourist from UAE who came in on the #PhuketSandbox has tested positive for #COVID19. He was immediately transferred to a hospital for treatment. People in his group have been moved to an ALQ hotel where they will do 14-day quarantine at their own expense. Their SHA+ are obliged to give them a full refund #Thailand

Just cause u have been vaccinated does NOT mean you can have it

[jomtienisgood]

1 hour ago, zzzzz said:

and so it begins:  still not bad 7 days 1 positive out of 2,113
A fully vaccinated tourist from UAE who came in on the #PhuketSandbox has tested positive for #COVID19. He was immediately transferred to a hospital for treatment. People in his group have been moved to an ALQ hotel where they will do 14-day quarantine at their own expense. Their SHA+ are obliged to give them a full refund #Thailand

Just cause u have been vaccinated does NOT mean you can have it

Correct, and dreams are for free; The Sandcastle isn't...