4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It’s clear the number of Covid deaths is undercounted. But this doctor’s story doesn’t tell you the scope of the undercount.

Of course not, nobody ever said that only a real investigation would reveal that. But as it would be bad for the government it will never happen. So all we can do is accept that there is a undercount and its probably country wide but can't say much about the size. Thought i think it would be at least 10-20 cases a day. If they find this in one hospital you can imagine country wide. But again your totally right that we can't find the real scope and will never know as its bad news for the government.

The same government with the secret memo about the vaccination of health workers. How likely do you think that a government concerned with face as proven by that memo would ever want a real full count ?

25 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Do you think that hospital admissions numbers have no relationship with reality?

 

or, are they just an artifact?

Depends on if they're turning people away. Also, depends on if they're adding beds or not.

One we see, for all the hundreds and thousands that we don't...

 

Via Google Translate -- "Erawan Center has been notified by hotline 1669 that there are many newly found Covid 19 patients spreading in the Bangkok area. waiting for help."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/erawancenter/photos/pcb.1237900433336223/1237882790004654

 

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Let’s recap the bidding.

 

Back when the numbers were declining or flat, and testing showed clusters forming, I said IF the government can address those clusters, we might be out of the woods. 

Lol, at 1500 to 2k cases, as counted numbers steadily rose, you claimed they were stable and moving sideways. I distinctly remember drawing two red lines on a daily case count graph to show the rising trend within the daily ups and downs……and you still wouldn’t admit it.

 

and then there was the infamous we may have peaked comment.

13 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

The flaw in your argument is that there are many factors that effect the daily numbers, not just the two you mention.
 

I know you watch those two every day and use them to reach a conclusion on the probable course of the virus. But there are other factors, every single day that can push numbers up or down.

 

in reality, this is a virus enjoying community spread. The number of cases goes up, whether they are counted, or not. Government policy and population behavior can influence the rate of spread, but if those are unchanged, the virus spreads until sufficient population has been infected to reduce the number of hosts available, to a level that slows virus growth.

 

I see what you are saying, but it’s just too simplistic a metric and also backward looking. If you’re trying to decide whether to stock up supplies, or head for the hills, looking at yesterday’s numbers to reach a decision, it means that the horse has bolted.

 

I have no idea if hospital admissions are down today, but if they are, I personally think it means nothing. The virus hasn’t changed in the last 24 hours, the government did nothing in the last 24 hours, people didn’t change in the last 24 hours.

And yet, the recorded number of hospital admissions was predictive of future infection spread until recently when admissions were capped by capacity.

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Okay. Let’s pretend no other country has Covid.

 

Thailand does not test enough. There are many undetected Covid positive individuals walking around.

 

okay?

 

Deflection number 3. We are not discussing anything about whether there is or is not Covid. We are talking about limitations of the Thailand system and how they are limiting numbers.

 

9 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

but then where are the others that criticized the postings, where have they gone too.......  

They've gone looking for a new pair of rose coloured glass as the old ones are no longer working.

A post with an altered quote has been removed

12 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Lol, at 1500 to 2k cases, as counted numbers steadily rose, you claimed they were stable and moving sideways. I distinctly remember drawing two red lines on a daily case count graph to show the rising trend within the daily ups and downs……and you still wouldn’t admit it.

 

and then there was the infamous we may have peaked comment.

Of, you mean in the period in early May when new cases were flat or declining? 

 

I am so sorry for pointing that out at the time. 
 

edit: this graphic comes from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

9 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Lol, at 1500 to 2k cases, as counted numbers steadily rose, you claimed they were stable and moving sideways. I distinctly remember drawing two red lines on a daily case count graph to show the rising trend within the daily ups and downs……and you still wouldn’t admit it.

 

and then there was the infamous we may have peaked comment.

There was a peak on April 28 that held for a couple of weeks. So, yeah, I pointed that out. 

37 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Do you think that hospital admissions numbers are understated and misleading?

 

Of course they are. Who in their right mind will show up at a hospital to get tested, unless their condition is so bad that they fear for their life?

 

They all know what awaits them - endless queues and the prospect of being incarcerated at a field hospital.

16 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Are you typing this stuff believing it or is it just a game.

The government handling of vaccine procurement has and will cost lives. Along with many other decisions such as Song Kran has cost lives and this is all down to mismanagement from government.

 

Of course "we are all going to die" is just more nonsense posting from yourself.

 

Time to ignore. Should of done it some time ago.

If you've put Danderman on 'ignore' make sure you don't join in the conversation on this thread, or your 'ignore' list will grow exponentially!

 

Just now, Caldera said:

 

Of course they are. Who in their right mind will show up at a hospital to get tested, unless their condition is so bad that they fear for their life?

 

They all know what awaits them - endless queues and the prospect of being incarcerated at a field hospital.

And yet, hospital admissions numbers until recently were predictive of future case numbers.

 

Here’s a clue: the number of people so sick that they don’t care about endless queues and incarceration is useful information.

1 minute ago, Caldera said:

 

Of course they are. Who in their right mind will show up at a hospital to get tested, unless their condition is so bad that they fear for their life?

 

They all know what awaits them - endless queues and the prospect of being incarcerated at a field hospital.

It was only a week, or two, ago, that a number of hospitals were turning people away, without testing, due to no beds available.. so yes, the numbers are higher than reported.. also no mass testing, unlike Australia.

 

28 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

If you assume that the number of admissions is accurate (to the extent that beds are available), then that number in itself is useful in understanding the progress of the epidemic. If, for example, the number dropped dramatically for a sustained period, you would know the epidemic is lessening.

 

Currently, the number of available beds is limited to those available due to discharges and newly opened beds. If admissions fill those slots, then we know total case numbers are probably limited by available beds, and the real numbers would be higher.

This in no way addresses the issue of people being turned away.

9 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

One we see, for all the hundreds and thousands that we don't...

 

Via Google Translate -- "Erawan Center has been notified by hotline 1669 that there are many newly found Covid 19 patients spreading in the Bangkok area. waiting for help."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/erawancenter/photos/pcb.1237900433336223/1237882790004654

 

Very grim photo of the reality of this virus in Bangkok, the lack of testing that leads to people getting seriously sick and no doubt some dying at home. 

 

This reflects the experience of Dr. Smith Srison at Ramathibodi Hospital Mahidol having evidence of the undercounting of covid deaths especially in slum areas from people dying at home without having been tested.

3 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

If you've put Danderman on 'ignore' make sure you don't join in the conversation on this thread, or your 'ignore' list will grow exponentially!

 

I did and yes you are correct a few are now in the no zone, in fact I almost had to ignore a post of my own because I fell into the trap and was trolled and baited, oh well live and learn.

5 minutes ago, Caldera said:

 

Of course they are. Who in their right mind will show up at a hospital to get tested, unless their condition is so bad that they fear for their life?

 

They all know what awaits them - endless queues and the prospect of being incarcerated at a field hospital.

Actually there are many reports of people wanting to be in hospitals. So these are scared people. There is of course also a large group that does not want to be locked up but those would be a symptomatic cases.

 

What is more worrisome about the hospital tests is that people are turned away so the numbers should be higher.

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This in no way addresses the issue of people being turned away.

You are correct.

 

As long as hospital admissions are capped by capacity, they are no longer predictive of future spread of the virus.  Even if hospital capacity increases, the number of admissions wouldn’t be useful if they were capped at the new level, they would just indicate the number of infections is even higher.

 

 

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Any links to this info or is it only you that's allowed to see the testing process and any of these backlogs?

You expect the labs to issue a press release stating that there are days when they can’t process all of the tests?

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

What is useful is to stop inter provience travel. Especially out of Bangkok.

Also what would be very handy is obtain some bloody vaccine and ramp up inoculation.

 

I agree that might still be of some benefit  I think may be too late already judging by the increasing number of vehicles displaying Bangkok number plates on the roads up here in my local Issan area !

I am not sure all the occupants are even necessarily from here either but have done a runner for the hills regardless ! A high percentage are travelling in urban saloons rather than the more typical pickups carting everything except the kitchen sink as is more common with visiting relatives !

 

People camped out overnight to get free #COVID19 testing at a #Bangkok temple. #Thailand #ThailandNews Read more: https://bit.ly/2SXfoms

 

PR Thai Government

Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Public Health, has visited the Busarakam Field Hospital in Impact Muang Thong Thani after it added 1,500 more beds, giving the hospital a total bed capacity of 3,700 beds.

 

https://twitter.com/prdthailand/status/1412607307893116936

 

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You expect the labs to issue a press release stating that there are days when they can’t process all of the tests?

Your point would make more sense if it could be shown that there were sharp fluctuations in the daily reporting of test results.

8 minutes ago, Nojohndoe said:

I agree that might still be of some benefit  I think may be too late already judging by the increasing number of vehicles displaying Bangkok number plates on the roads up here in my local Issan area !

I am not sure all the occupants are even necessarily from here either but have done a runner for the hills regardless ! A high percentage are travelling in urban saloons rather than the more typical pickups carting everything except the kitchen sink as is more common with visiting relatives !

 

To keep them now in place is what's needed until a period of time shows the numbers stabilizing in those provinces before allowing travel back out.  That's just my view though.

What are the odds on 7,000 cases by the weekend? Pretty short, I'd say.

7 minutes ago, anchadian said:

People camped out overnight to get free #COVID19 testing at a #Bangkok temple. #Thailand #ThailandNews Read more: https://bit.ly/2SXfoms

 

This shows you the need and want to get tested by the public to know whether or not they should continue to work or isolate from others including family to keep from continuing to allow the spread through the ranks.

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Your point would make more sense if it could be shown that there were sharp fluctuations in the daily reporting of test results.

We had fairly predictable  weekly spikes in lab processing results until recently.

 

what we had a couple of days ago was a sharp drop in lab results followed the next day by a big spike in lab results. You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to see what happened.

4 minutes ago, Guderian said:

What are the odds on 7,000 cases by the weekend? Pretty short, I'd say.

That’s the problem: if hospital admissions are capped by capacity, and testing is likewise capped, how do we know if cases are increasing?

 

This is neither a rhetorical question, nor a complaint. What are the indicators of increased cases if the official numbers don’t show the increased cases?

23 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

And yet, hospital admissions numbers until recently were predictive of future case numbers.

 

Here’s a clue: the number of people so sick that they don’t care about endless queues and incarceration is useful information.

So you DO agree with my statement that relying on only hospital numbers is not sufficiently broad a metric, because other factors also come into play?

 

your always betting on black and being completely right…..until red comes up theory, is just too simplistic.

 

I am happy to agree that hospital admissions are an indicator. I am not blind to what you are saying. They USED to be a pretty good indicator amongst a bunch of others. But hospital admissions decreased in value substantially as an indicator once hospitals filled up and new beds were created out of nothing.