3 months of semi-lockdown required to bring pandemic under control – KKP Research

[joecoolfrog]

14 hours ago, John Drake said:

Three more months of this extending to more provinces and Thailand will breakdown and come apart at the seams.

The government has made such a hash of its vaccine rollout that extended lockdowns are inevitable.

Unless extensive financial assistance is forthcoming then I fear you are correct , the economy will be in tatters.

This will amount to a distribition of wealth though so goes against the grain for those in charge here.

I dont think the pigs will share their trough so the plebs will in many cases literally be left to starve.

[joecoolfrog]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

As someone stuck outside of Thailand for 16 months away from the family, I would support this, even though it would mean more time away.

 

BUT.

 

The issue is unless their vaccine program is completely finished by 3 months - and a non  chinese vaccine used -  then it will just explode again on opening and my time away extended further.

 

Tell me I could plan to start coming back without hoops in exactly 6 months and I'd be not exactly happy, but OK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was hoping for ' no hoops ' entry next january , I fear that it may well be nearer May now.

[GrandPapillon]

this could lead to looting and complete cahos eventually, the Thai government is playing with fire here

 

what could possibly go wrong?

[joecoolfrog]

7 hours ago, phukettrader said:

I thought we were talking about Thailand here?

 

Even taking the worldwide rate of 2.1%, that's still more than 97% of cases (not total population) that do NOT die from it, and far less than the 8-10% of cases to death from influenza in any normal year (before the flu miraculously disappeared last year).

 

Remember also that the figures for covid are always stated from the start of the pandemic - one and a half years so far, rather than for a single "season".

 

Nobody is trying make light of those who have lost their lives to this virus, but for God's sake, lets start having some grown up debate about the effects on people's physical and mental health due to lockdowns etc

The debate should centre on wholesale financial support for businesses and individuals affected by the pandemic.

The western world has largely managed it , in Thailand its not lack of funds , its a lack of will.

[gejohesch]

7 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Yes really.....worldwide it is =2.1% of cases. Bigger sample.....

Death is not the only poor outcome by the way. 

"Death is not the only poor outcome by the way." : Exactly!

 

Plus, whether going to die or not, a high number of severely infected people cause a heavy burden on the medical system. Even much richer and better equipped countries than Thailand have struggled to cope.

 

Further, would anyone with 10 grams of brains accept the risk, however small, to see him/herself or someone close severely affected , with the risk of long sequels or even death?

 

The "99% survival rate" is a completely bogus argument for letting the pandemic running lose.

[SuwadeeS]

I am wondering about the death rate of this pandemic.

I mean dead by CCP Virus, compare to dead by starvation, compare dead by suicide.

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, Chivas said:

lol the currency IS floated and it happened in 1997 when the peg was removed to the benchmark $

Despite it dropping this last few months Thailands foreign currency reserves are still monstrous at the 10th highest in the world

All those reserves yet the government allows millions of its people ,and countless small businesses ,to rot.

A striking example of the priorities of the Thai administration.

[RobU]

14 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

As someone stuck outside of Thailand for 16 months away from the family, I would support this, even though it would mean more time away.

 

BUT.

 

The issue is unless their vaccine program is completely finished by 3 months - and a non  chinese vaccine used -  then it will just explode again on opening and my time away extended further.

 

Tell me I could plan to start coming back without hoops in exactly 6 months and I'd be not exactly happy, but OK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am in a similar situation and fully agree with you

[Rimmer]

Troll scaremonger post removed

[LongTimeLurker]

7 hours ago, Dog walker said:

Mass vaccination for both Thai's and Foreigners is the only answer, 7 days a week. Instead of every day just adding more restrictions day by day. Take a look at the western world, some sense of normality is returning in most places. Make it happen in Thailand.

Do you really want 'normal' to return to Thailand??

 

I'm enjoying no traffic, no calls of 'massage, massage' when I walk down a street, even being able to walk on a pavement!!

 

I still get annoyed by the 'taxi, taxi' calls though.

[NoshowJones]

8 hours ago, fulhamster said:

Free float but has hardly moved since 2014

Would that not have something to do with the "there won't be a coup" unelected PM and his soldier boys? That is the year they stole the country.

[Uroller]

16 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

This is probably right. 3 months to slow down the spread of the delta variant, giving more time to vaccinate as many people as possible, might just pull Thailand through to the other side, but vaccination efforts must expand and run 7 days per week not 5 days then 2 pointless days at the weekend

And what are they going to vaccinate people with Gatorade????

[kimamey]

17 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

As someone stuck outside of Thailand for 16 months away from the family, I would support this, even though it would mean more time away.

 

BUT.

 

The issue is unless their vaccine program is completely finished by 3 months - and a non  chinese vaccine used -  then it will just explode again on opening and my time away extended further.

 

Tell me I could plan to start coming back without hoops in exactly 6 months and I'd be not exactly happy, but OK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's a long time to be away. I went out on 29th December 2019 with no idea that it would be this bad. I was due to return on 15 March but as I stay with my mother whilst in the UK and she was 91 at the time I stayed. In the end I had to leave as I wasn't able to sort out the financials in time but I intended returning soon . That was 10 months ago at the end of September. 

 

I'd agree that a sensible date that you could rely on apart from something serious going wrong would at least enable planning to start. At the moment  if I go back after 2 August then I can get home. At least by bus and possibly fly. I think flights are planned to start then as well but who knows. At the moment we've got a replacement bus service for the bus service from Phuket. Even when you get to Bangkok unless you hire a car you're still stuck. That is until 2 August but there's no guarantee that will stand and in fact it looks unlikely. I'm just waiting for the fleet of motorcycle taxis from Bangkok to come to the rescue.

 

Anyway that's my rant. Best of luck getting back.

[kimamey]

12 hours ago, phukettrader said:

I thought we were talking about Thailand here?

 

Even taking the worldwide rate of 2.1%, that's still more than 97% of cases (not total population) that do NOT die from it, and far less than the 8-10% of cases to death from influenza in any normal year (before the flu miraculously disappeared last year).

 

Remember also that the figures for covid are always stated from the start of the pandemic - one and a half years so far, rather than for a single "season".

 

Nobody is trying make light of those who have lost their lives to this virus, but for God's sake, lets start having some grown up debate about the effects on people's physical and mental health due to lockdowns etc

Flu hasn't disappeared it's just not spread so well due to precautions taken against Covid. That's good but of course it also impedes building of immunity so there's a worry flu might be worse this year. RSV in children may follow the same path.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/23/parents-urged-to-look-out-for-rsv-and-other-infections-in-children

 

Covid is very complicated, not only in it's effects on the body but both short term but with long covid as well but all the mental and economic issues that have to be balanced as well.

[Sig]

6 hours ago, John Drake said:

A personal experience. Two days ago, I went to a nearby private hospital to get medicine I take for a vestibular disorder.  It is Thai manufactured and a better alternative than the imported version. Couldn't get it. The physician checked with the hospital pharmacy when writing the prescription and they told him the company was in lockdown because of Covid and not shipping medicine for another month at least. The hospital was already out of the imported alternative. I visited a couple of private pharmacies until I found one with a couple of boxes of the imported med still in stock. More of this type thing will happen.

Yep, a lot more. And there has already been plenty, but not reported. Just wait 5 years until the damning studies start coming in. And of course there will be some before that and even worse ones later. Due to the 2008 economic downturn in the US, studies showed that over 260,000 excess deaths occurred from cancer alone due to inability or restricted treatment availability. These days the situation is MUCH worse than at that time. If the US suffered that casualty number from only cancer deaths, I can't even imagine what the number is going to be from the fiasco of how governments are dealing with COVID-19. I recall a report from the UN that predicted over a million deaths of children in developing countries due to these nonsense measures governments are taking. So, just read between the lines with all of the other kinds of diseases not getting treatment, drugs not being available for all sorts of things, mental issues meteorically rising (some can be seen in the posts here...), suicide rising horrible, alcohol and drug abuse rising massively, and spouse and child abuse going in hand with that... etc ad nauseum.

[The Hammer2021]

On 7/22/2021 at 8:52 PM, 2 is 1 said:

Let your currency float and get value something like 1$ is 45 bth then your export industry go up like rocket. Also you maybe get tourist in country some day in future!

No body wants to come here as a tourist. It's about as attractive as Chernoble.

[MrMo]

And the semi-lockdown is going to start in which year ?

[2 is 1]

51 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

No body wants to come here as a tourist. It's about as attractive as Chernoble.

The tourism flow peaked at over 124.4 thousand visitors in 2019, when the interest in the area was sparked by the HBO miniseries about the Chernobyl disaster.

Nice to get those 124k this year.

[GrandPapillon]

well some good news, science groups in Europe are estimating that "back to normal" will not happen before 2023

 

2021: US and Europe get vaccinated

2022: Rest of the world catching up

2023: Globalization open for business

[superal]

2 hours ago, kimamey said:

That's a long time to be away. I went out on 29th December 2019 with no idea that it would be this bad. I was due to return on 15 March but as I stay with my mother whilst in the UK and she was 91 at the time I stayed. In the end I had to leave as I wasn't able to sort out the financials in time but I intended returning soon . That was 10 months ago at the end of September. 

 

I'd agree that a sensible date that you could rely on apart from something serious going wrong would at least enable planning to start. At the moment  if I go back after 2 August then I can get home. At least by bus and possibly fly. I think flights are planned to start then as well but who knows. At the moment we've got a replacement bus service for the bus service from Phuket. Even when you get to Bangkok unless you hire a car you're still stuck. That is until 2 August but there's no guarantee that will stand and in fact it looks unlikely. I'm just waiting for the fleet of motorcycle taxis from Bangkok to come to the rescue.

 

Anyway that's my rant. Best of luck getting back.

I have a similar position but I do not have any confidence if staying in Phuket for 15 days and the covid rules being favourable and flight/buses being available . Maybe the Certificate of entry should have included a pass/waiver to be able to return to your Thai residence by whatever means are available ? Especially when you consider the amount of money on flights , hotel, covid tests and insurance etc . The sandbox programme states that you will be able to travel to anywhere within Thailand after your 14 day stay and with no attached provisos .

[ourmanflint]

3 hours ago, Uroller said:

And what are they going to vaccinate people with Gatorade????

It's as good as Sinovac, a lot cheaper and comes in more flavours

[kiwikeith]

On 7/23/2021 at 3:01 AM, Rookiescot said:

And yet the baht hardly moves.

It is a mystery for sure.

Someone can answer that for us, I wouldn't hazard a guess as their name but they could have some large overseas investments. 

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

It's as good as Sinovac, a lot cheaper and comes in more flavours

The prisoners are getting green hebal teas 

[kiwikeith]

3 hours ago, superal said:

I have a similar position but I do not have any confidence if staying in Phuket for 15 days and the covid rules being favourable and flight/buses being available . Maybe the Certificate of entry should have included a pass/waiver to be able to return to your Thai residence by whatever means are available ? Especially when you consider the amount of money on flights , hotel, covid tests and insurance etc . The sandbox programme states that you will be able to travel to anywhere within Thailand after your 14 day stay and with no attached provisos .

Submitted COE twice online yesterday to the Thai embassy N Z and it comes back #400 can not accept data transfer, try again, saw another poster having same problem, embassy has not replied to my email asking if the website is experiencing any problems, no reply. 

Looks like something is going on, maybe Thailand is shutting down. 

Had paperwork perfect accepted that then the above message, I will try to contact them again today, but this could be a door closed without notice, trying again today, will keep you informed. 

I also heard Britain has stopped letting in non British nationals from Thailand if anyone can confirm that, and you're facing quarantine to get back. 

At present NZ has suspended the Australian travel bubble, but will bring back 50000, stranded kiwis,. 

Just to book quarantine to get back you are looking at over 90day waiting list, you can't apply for 90 days to return if you leave. 

Travel anywhere has now gone from major, to a major, major problem. 

[jacob29]

11 hours ago, gejohesch said:

Further, would anyone with 10 grams of brains accept the risk, however small, to see him/herself or someone close severely affected , with the risk of long sequels or even death?

 

The "99% survival rate" is a completely bogus argument for letting the pandemic running lose.

As far as 'accept the risk, however small'.. if it's small enough the answer is clearly yes. That's what we do for regular flu, which kills roughly 0.1% of elderly. There is no right answer here, but it's also not one extreme or the other.

 

How about the side effects of losing your business/life savings and facing the remainder of your days in poverty? That's the prospect many older people are facing, they've been wrecked, and are too old to start from scratch. 

 

Many young people are facing life long side effects as well, thanks to a year or two of substandard education. If your education is disrupted sufficiently during your formative years, the impact can be more or less permanent. So we're liable to get a cohort of kids with education deficits.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't have bothered with lockdowns, but to put all the focus on the deaths and health side effects is unreasonable. It's a mess out there, and if people aren't on board going into year 3 of lockdowns, I'll certainly understand where they are coming from.

[kiwikeith]

On 7/23/2021 at 6:06 AM, John Drake said:

Three more months of this extending to more provinces and Thailand will breakdown and come apart at the seams.

According to my friends wife in Nakon Sawan, she has the gates chained up and her grandkids are with her, she's teaching them at home, she is a teacher, and her son delivers food to her and leaves it at the gate, no one comes in. 

My wife tells me that Covid-19 is in our street in Smorprong Huahin, people are dieing all over the place and there's no vaccine, they were offering a sino/Astra combo in Nakon Sawan but the people are rejecting it. 

My mates wife says crime is rampant, people are very angry, they are scared, the hospitals are full and people are dieing at home. 

Anarchy develops, while the sandbox is still being pushed, how much more

of this will the people be able to take??? 

What will the country do if the daily toll spirals to 30000 and keeps rising?? Very sad situation for people of all countries at this difficult time. 

[HeijoshinCool]

Vax a nation...seems to be what everyone wants....

[fredscats]

20 hours ago, Presnock said:

problem is in the states and western nations that have vaccines, there are too many idiots running around without getting the FREE and READILY AVAILABLE everywhere including vehicle drive by to one's house.  On top of that, senior Republican figures are not encouraging their followers to get vaccinated as they want to keep the current government in hot water.  Another problem that too many are ignoring is that children under 12 still cannot be vaccinated and since many of their parents and some teachers aren't vaccinated (although some vaccinated still can get the virus) are bringing it home as their parents won't even wear masks outside let alone inside.  Just too many dumb people starting a new WAVE in the US and on top of all this, new variants are forming and some may be able to completely overwhelm the vaccines.

 

The US is running some two months behind the UK infection rate,will go up by a rocket

[metisdead]

A post with chart that was copy and pasted from some site without a link to the source of information has been removed. 

[ThailandRyan]

Todays numbers are

14,260 cases

119 deaths

 

If that does not keep the thought of a 3 month lockdown alive then I do not know what will