Thailand Considers Cap on Vaccine Exports as COVID Cases Surge

[webfact]

A health worker prepares a shot of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for people at the Central Vaccination Center in Bangkok, Thailand, July 22, 2021.

 

By Zsombor Peter

 

BANGKOK - Thailand is considering a cap on the export of locally made COVID-19 vaccines as it scrambles to shore up domestic supplies amid its worst outbreak of the coronavirus since the pandemic began. Talk of restricting exports comes as some of Thailand’s neighbors are also battling major new waves of infection.

 

Thailand and AstraZeneca struck a production deal last year for the British-Swedish pharmaceuticals giant to make its COVID-19 vaccine in Thailand. With the help of a local drugmaker, Siam Bioscience, AstraZeneca is set to make about 200 million doses between mid-2021 and mid-2022. The Thai government has reserved about a third of those doses, with the rest bound for export to Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and other neighbors.

 

A cap on vaccine exports could force those countries to delay or rethink their plans to get shots in arms. But with less than 6% of its nearly 70 million people fully inoculated and the highly contagious delta variant of the virus now driving daily infection rates to record highs, Thailand is eager to add more AstraZeneca shots to its vaccine lineup.

 

Full story: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/thailand-considers-cap-vaccine-exports-covid-cases-surge

 

-- © Copyright Voice of America 2021-07-28

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[ukrules]

18 minutes ago, webfact said:

Talk of restricting exports comes as some of Thailand’s neighbors are also battling major new waves of infection.

This is how wars begin.

[Credo]

I wonder if this is legal?   It's produced in Thailand, but it's a cooperative agreement with AZ and the doses are under contract to other countries.   

 

[FritsSikkink]

2 minutes ago, Credo said:

I wonder if this is legal?   It's produced in Thailand, but it's a cooperative agreement with AZ and the doses are under contract to other countries.   

 

Start a legal procedure, see how long it will take to come to a conclusion.

[lujanit]

People here are plenty worried.  I had an appointment at Bang Sue yesterday for the first AZ shot at 1600 hours.  There was literally thousands of people there.  I didn't get my jab until 1830.

 

I realise that yesterday was the last day Thais could not show up without registering so a lot of people was expected.  The staff on hand did the best they could under the circumstances.

 

Italy withheld AZ from Australia despite a previous order so this is not unheard of.  Whether it is legal depends on the wording of the contract.

[smedly]

it needs the agreement of AZ because they provide certain critical ingredients that allow for its manufacture, expansion of manufacturing or open another facility might be a better way to provide more.

[Whale]

Interesting, my view would be Thailand can do it if they so wish as the production contract is between Siam Bioscience and AZ? So national sovereign law (as can be passed by the government under section 44) would have precedence over the contract between SB and AZ. SB are a private company so cannot be held accountable for the decisions of a sovereign government. Question would be are Thai Gov party to the contract as they part funded the production lab I seem to remember reading.

Whether Thailand should attempt this another matter.

[internationalism]

that would be breaking contract with the AZ and diplomatic war within ASEAN.

This bullying of AZ by thai government was going for over a month already, with strong reply from the AZ that they can spare up to 6mln (already twice as that written in contract), but not 10mln thai were hoping.

Contract for an additional 36mln doses was only signed in May, while an earlier contract for 25mln and contracts with the other asean countries were signed the last year.  

 

[nkg]

 

_

 

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by nkg

[mtls2005]

Bad idea.

 

 

Although they do have a law for this, as they do for everything here.

 

National Vaccine Security Act (2018)

 

http://nvi.go.th/index.php/files/large/208f6bc83adf0bd

 

Section 18, Para 2

 

 

Of course the regime failed to read Para 4. Oops.

 

 

 

 

[mtls2005]

2 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Start a legal procedure, see how long it will take to come to a conclusion.

 

Exactly, in 20 years some state in Germany will seize someone's plane.

 

Hopewell Project still being litigated, Thailand still not paying.

 

 

[kwonitoy]

If there is something Thailand is the Hub of its unfulfilled promises and broken contracts. Sue them in a Thai court? See your results in 10-15 years.

[Caldera]

It's a risky move, betting even more than they do now on their local production, while alienating both other countries and AstraZeneca. I don't see such a move going down well with COVAX either.

[FarFlungFalang]

If they hijack AZ the rest of the vaccine makers might have second thoughts about fulfilling their contracts with Thailand and Thailand won't be able to complain about broken contracts.

[brommers]

Forget anything to do with the law. The fact of the matter is that Thailand's people invested 600 million baht in local production with the aim of being the Asean vaccine hub. Well the moment Thailand puts any form of restriction on deliveries to Asean member states this goverment will destroy any chance of becoming a hub. Vietnam is already busy preparing to manufacture nRNA vaccines and will immediately become the Asean preferred source. Trust in Thailand is very transient at the best of time and it is almost gone already. So 600 million will be wasted on producing a second rate vaccine and Vietnam will win the race.

[dan42]

One of the golden rules of good management: Don't try to fix a mistake with another mistake.

 

This decision could have a very negative impact on Thailand's international credibility and prestige with long-term consequences.

[Pravda]

8 minutes ago, dan42 said:

Thailand's international credibility and prestige

 

????

[dan42]

4 minutes ago, Pravda said:

 

????

Well....if they have zero prestige and credibility how then AZ decided to create a factory in TH and move there part of the production? That means that at least they have some credibility that they might lose. Probably more than Russia btw

Edited July 28, 2021 by dan42

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand is considering a cap on the export of locally made COVID-19 vaccines as it scrambles to shore up domestic supplies amid its worst outbreak of the coronavirus since the pandemic began. Talk of restricting exports comes as some of Thailand’s neighbors are also battling major new waves of infection.

Thailand has no say in the distribution of the AZ vaccine, it gets what it was contractually given, with the rest agreed for export.

 

[mtls2005]

17 minutes ago, dan42 said:

Thailand's international credibility and prestige

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

I think this VOA news report may be somewhat out of date...

 

Yes, they were talking about export curbs some days back when the news first broke about just how short their AZ supplies were going to be...

 

But then they went silent on the export curbs issue for days... And then two days ago on Monday, the government's spokesman during a news briefing went to great lengths to stress that the vaccines solution needed to be a REGIONAL one for SE Asia....

 

So from those comments, it really didn't sound like they're planning to try to hijack the Thailand-produced AZ supplies bound for their various neighboring countries...  Rather, they seem to have publicly settled on the notion that they're only going to get 5-6 million AZ doses per month for local use, down from the 10 million that they originally promised.

 

[mtls2005]

27 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

they're only going to get 5-6 million AZ doses per month for local use

 

And that will be a stretch, according the AZ/THL headman Teague. Will require a perfect storm-level of events as they "scour" the globe for supplies. (Or that could have been hyperbole on his part, who knows as there is no transparency.)

 

 

 

But yes, I think seasoned MoFA types like Don Pramudwinai will back-stop any foolishness. So called "legal expert", Wissanu Krea-ngam, would do whatever he's told.

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

There's also been some curious word games / weasel wording going on on vaccinations in the past week, as follows:

 

1. Two different English language Thai news outlets had reports this week quoting the government's COVID assistant spokeswoman as referring to a 50% vaccination goal... When I saw the first one, I thought it must have been a typo/mistake of the government's declared 70% year-end goal. But then a second TH news report came along and used the same 50% figure.... Not sure what's going on with that!

 

2. And, lately, I've noticed an increased tendency on some of the government talking heads to refer to their vaccination percentages based on a single shot number, not the fully vaccinated two shot number. So for example, the government's EN spokesman earlier this week mentioned 50+% of Bangkok residents had been "vaccinated." But that's only a 1-shot figure and a somewhat dubious one at best. The official two-shot figure for BKK is 13%.

 

Put all of the above together, and it begins to almost sound like they're laying the groundwork for missing their 70% year end fully vaccinated goal -- which there's no way in the world they're actually going to achieve given where things stand.

 

Just like there's no longer any official talk/mention of the government's original public promise of 10 million local AZ doses per month for the second half of the year. Now, it's only AZ should be able to provide Thailand with 5-6 million per month, period!  The prior 10 million target seems to have vanished!

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[mtls2005]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

But then a second TH news report came along and used the same 50% figure.... Not sure what's going on with that!

 

I have been sensing a movement/trend towards getting one shot into as many people as possible, as quickly as possible by foregoing second doses. I think this makes sense, but I'm not an expert, nor would I want to make this decision.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

And, lately, I've noticed an increased tendency on some of the government talking heads to refer to their vaccination percentages based on a single shot number,

Again, reinforces movement towards one-shot coverage vs. two-shots. We're told a single dose of AZ is 87% effective re: severe symptoms, hospitalization and death.

 

 

70%/50 mm people with one dose by year's end is probably doable with supplies. Assumes sinovac "qualifies". They're nearly at 33% now with at least one shot (~  16 mm). With supplies and maximum effort; but the last three days have been dismal, weekends always are, but yesterday (admittedly a holiday) was only 138,892.

 

Assume 25 mm AZ doses ( 5 mm per month for 5 months) + 2.3 mm this week for 27.3 mm. And a smattering of siniovac or pharm, Moderna, Pfizer, and they're close (to the ~ 33 mm needed). Maybe by the end of January 2022 for 50 mm with at least one shot?

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by mtls2005

[CALSinCM]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

A cap on vaccine exports could force those countries to delay or rethink their plans to get shots in arms.

A cop on vaccine exports invalidates contractual agreements between Astrazenaca and the countries who contracted for vaccine deliveries. 
That will force all countries globally to rethink their plans to conduct international business with Thailand now and in the future.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

23 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

I have been sensing a movement/trend towards getting one shot into as many people as possible, as quickly as possible by foregoing second doses. I think this makes sense, but I'm not an expert, nor would I want to make this decision.

 

Lately, by a rough day to day view, the 1st dose to 2nd dose ratio often has been in the 10 to 1 range. Such as for yesterday:

 

 

Some of it may be that smaller numbers of people are yet due for their second shot. But my guess is it's mainly what you suggest, and that's a deliberate effort to get at least a first shot into as many people as possible.

 

The downside to that, though, is that first shots alone, especially for the Sinovac being given to many Thais, don't provide much protection, espec. against the Delta variant. But given their limited available supply of vaccine doses, I don't know what their better choice would be.

Edited July 28, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

I have been sensing a movement/trend towards getting one shot into as many people as possible, as quickly as possible by foregoing second doses. I think this makes sense, but I'm not an expert, nor would I want to make this decision.

 

 

 

Again, reinforces movement towards one-shot coverage vs. two-shots. We're told a single dose of AZ is 87% effective re: severe symptoms, hospitalization and death.

 

 

70%/50 mm people with one dose by year's end is probably doable with supplies. Assumes sinovac "qualifies". They're nearly at 33% now with at least one shot (~  16 mm). With supplies and maximum effort; but the last three days have been dismal, weekends always are, but yesterday (admittedly a holiday) was only 138,892.

 

Assume 25 mm AZ doses ( 5 mm per month for 5 months) + 2,. mm this week for 27.3 mm. And a smattering of siniovac or pharm, Moderna, Pfizer, and they're close (to the ~ 33 mm needed). Maybe by the end of January 2022 for 50 mm with at least one shot?

 

 

 

 

Single shot of AstraZeneca’s Vaxzevria shows effectiveness against variants

AstraZeneca has reported that a single dose of its Covid-19 vaccine, Vaxzevria, was 82% effective against hospitalisation or mortality caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus’ Beta or Gamma variants.

The data is from a study by the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) with support from the Public Health Agency of Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research...

The study analyzed the vaccine in a total of 69,533 Covid-19 patients in Ontario, Canada. Of these, 28,705 subjects tested positive for non-variants of concern and 40,828 were positive for a variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/astrazeneca-vaxzevria-effective-variants/

[mtls2005]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Lately, by a rough day to day view, the 1st dose to 2nd dose ratio often has been in the 10 to 1 range. Such as for yesterday:

 

 

AZ second doses don't come due until August 2 (8 weeks after the June 7 launch).

 

Hence the high ratio.

 

Will be interesting to see if second doses get pushed? I suspect they will, at least in high infection rate locales.

[Enzian]

6 hours ago, Credo said:

I wonder if this is legal?   It's produced in Thailand, but it's a cooperative agreement with AZ and the doses are under contract to other countries.   

 

force majeure

[Dogmatix]

7 hours ago, Credo said:

I wonder if this is legal?   It's produced in Thailand, but it's a cooperative agreement with AZ and the doses are under contract to other countries.   

 

Of course it is legal.  Thailand is a sovereign country and it just needs to publish an emergency ministerial regulation in the Royal Decree for this to be become law with immediate effect. Anutin said this would be done about 10 days ago, although nothing has happened, leading to speculation it was a bluff. The contract for production and exports is between AZ and SBS, not the government which is merely a customer of AZ.  So AZ can't sue the government for breach of contract but AZ's other customers can. 

 

Apart from relations with ASEAN neighbours and Taiwan, I think the problem lies with the fact that AZ controls all other parts of the global supply chain apart from exports from Thailand.  They have said they will try to find vaccines for Thailand from other countries and have already got 500,000 from Korea and 2 milion from Japan for Thailand. This they will obviously stop doing, if there is an export ban. 

 

More seriously AZ controls the flow of inputs into Thailand.  These inputs are in short supply and AZ could easily divert some of them from Thailand to other factories that have surplus capacity in order to make up some of the export shortfalls caused by a ban, thus still leaving Thailand short. The government could not sue AZ, if it did this, as it would still be supplying what Thailand ordered. SBS could not sue either as the supply of hard to soure inputs must be on a best efforts basis and it is up to AZ how it fulfills orders from outside Thailand.  Japan is an obviously possibility for expanding capacity, since, although the Japanese need vaccines, there has been AZ hesitancy there due to blood clots and the Japanese AZ factory, which is probably about the same size as the Thai one, has been donating unwanted vaccines abroad, including to Thailand.

 

Finally there is the possibility that vaccine production could start in other Asian countries but might be out of Thailand's reach if it decides to ban its own exports.   

Edited July 28, 2021 by Dogmatix