Thailand reports 17,345 new COVID-19 cases and 117 deaths

[anchadian]

Cluster infections have been found in 518 factories, located in 49 provinces of Thailand, affecting 36,861 workers who tested positive for the disease between April 1st and July 29th this year, according to information compiled by the Industry Ministry. https://thaip.bs/VUA8xTq

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Cluster infections have been found in 518 factories, located in 49 provinces of Thailand, affecting 36,861 workers who tested positive for the disease between April 1st and July 29th this year, according to information compiled by the Industry Ministry. https://thaip.bs/VUA8xTq

 

 

And they are all more than likely bubble and sealed in if past practices have been put in play.

Edited July 30, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[wensiensheng]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

Just to follow-up with what apparently happened.

 

If you remember, my original post was about antigen testing in general, that both anitgen and even PCR tests are often confirmed again with PCR. This is GAP, generally accepted procedure.  Then followed the discussion about chickens, Phetchabun, etc.

 

The 4 day testing period I quoted came from TNR via Richard Barrows , right or wrong. So what did happen to the testing?  At least according to TNR Twitter reports:

 

"During 22-25 July, health officials tested 7,164 registered workers at a chicken processing factory in Phetchabun. A total of 3,481 positive cases were found (391 Thai workers & 3,090 migrant workers)"

 

According to a later TNR report that Richard Barrows may not have seen:

 

"The 3,481 workers at the chicken processing plant in Phetchabun were tested with an Antigen Test Kit. According to government guidelines, as results may not be accurate, these people have to be tested again by RT-PCR before they are entered into the system #Thailand #COVID19"

 

Further is seems some maybe the Thai were already added by July 26 (from the same reports)

 

"Quite a few people have been asking why the 3,481 workers in Phetchabun, who had tested positive for #COVID19, haven’t yet been added to the national tally. As you can see from the attached infographic, only 370 have been added for Phetchabun over the last four days #Thailand"

 

FYI only.

 

Well, thanks. But you are reconfirming exactly what I said.
 

The antigen tests were done. Depending which source you use, it was Friday, Saturday and then another 613 finished off on Sunday morning.  Barrow seems to say 4 days. I didn’t read that, but don’t see it makes any difference. Afaik, we are agreed on that.

 

secondly, I know, and I believe it is widely known, that the government does not accept the results of an antigen test. That is because they say it is not accurate enough and therefore a second, PCR test, is required before the case becomes official. This has always been the case and is not in dispute.

 

the issue in the case of the chicken farm cases, and may I say all other bubble and seal facilities, is whether or not the second PCR tests were actually administered. It’s hard to prove what happened at other bubble and seal facilities, because most are in bangkok and the overall scale of positive numbers for Bangkok make hard to know if the bubble and seal cases  have been included, or not. BUT, in the case of the Phetchabun chicken factory, the number of cases at the factory (over 3k) are large enough to make a substantial impact on the overall Phetchabun numbers.

 

in other words, if the chicken factory cases were included then it would be seen in the Phetchabun daily numbers. The daily case numbers for Phetchabun for the last week of July have been posted in this thread earlier. The average number per day is less than 100. The highest number posted on a single day is from memory 134, or 130 something anyway.

 

so one of two things has happened. 
 

1. The PCR confirming tests were done and basically all came back negative. I think this is unlikely as it would have been front page news if the antigen tests showed a 90% plus inaccuracy rate. In fact, I think even the government acknowledges that there are 3k positive cases.

 

2. The PCR confirming tests were never done. Only the antigen tests were done and when they came back positive, the factory was sealed.

 

I personally believe that 2.  above happened. The medical staff did their job. They did the antigen tests, treated people who needed treating and the provincial/government officials sealed the site. And so, all those positive cases were never included in the official case count, because they were not confirmed by a second confirming PCR tests. 
 

the medical people have done nothing wrong. They found the cases, they treated the cases and then the government policy took over from there and the cases stay off the official tally.

 

I don’t think I can make this any clearer tbh. It’s what I said in my first post, tried to clarify subsequently and now I am saying it again. And from your post above, the only thing you don’t seem to have grasped is whether those second confirming tests were actually done. If you have contacts in the medical profession, maybe you can check? But if you look at the daily numbers for Phetchabun, there have not been 3k cases reported for that province in the last week of July. That is fact.

Edited July 30, 2021 by wensiensheng

[anchadian]

The coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc across many parts of the world including Thailand. The highly transmissible Delta variant of the novel coronavirus is spreading quickly, resulting in a surge of infection and hospitalization rates since the Songkran Festival.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/breaking-down-barriers-to-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-a-psychiatrist/

[Blumpie]

6 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Horrible scenes on TV Thai news now of clearly over stretched situation. Looks like holding area at hospital or field hospital. If someone can speak Thai check it out. Chaos.

Oh no... ????  

Better book my Thai vacation, LOL!!!  ????  

[anchadian]

This money could have been used to build more field hospitals, set up vaccination centers thoughout the Kingdom, financially help the unemployed and needy and many other things during these strange times, but alas:

 

The House Budget Committee has approved a ฿15.8 bil for the Royal Thai Navy, incl. for the procurement of 3 Chinese UAVs (฿4.1 bil), the 1st payment for Chinese submarines (฿1.1 bil) and a new naval ship (฿1.7 bil). It was only ฿8 mil less than the original proposal.

 

https://twitter.com/SaksithCNA/status/1421073931172159494

 

[anchadian]

TIMELINE: Si Racha, Sattahip, and #Chonburi informs residents who visited places in relation to most recent Covid -19 confirmed cases

 

List of places here:

https://tpnnational.com/2021/07/30/timeline-si-racha-sattahip-and-chonburi-informs-residents-who-visited-places-in-relation-to-most-recent-covid-19-confirmed-cases/

[ThailandRyan]

16 minutes ago, anchadian said:

This money could have been used to build more field hospitals, set up vaccination centers thoughout the Kingdom, financially help the unemployed and needy and many other things during these strange times, but alas:

 

The House Budget Committee has approved a ฿15.8 bil for the Royal Thai Navy, incl. for the procurement of 3 Chinese UAVs (฿4.1 bil), the 1st payment for Chinese submarines (฿1.1 bil) and a new naval ship (฿1.7 bil). It was only ฿8 mil less than the original proposal.

 

https://twitter.com/SaksithCNA/status/1421073931172159494

 

Yet this evening on the Channel 32 there have been numerous advertisements by the news folks asking for donations to be sent so that the rapid antigen tests can be purchased and delivered to those in need, as well as for donations to raise funds to buy supplies and food to give to the needy.  The post @anchadian posted which I quoted shows just how out of touch with reality this Government is.  Almost all agencies should be taking a cut and giving back funds to assist the country thru this period of time, but then TIT and at the trough it seems it is every government agency and military group for themselves, especially when the RTA (Royal Thai Army) tried to horn in on the vaccines that the Red Cross was obtaining.  Just sickening to see this feces on display.

[metisdead]

A scaremongering post with misinformation has been reported and removed as well as the replies. 

[anchadian]

Phuket update:

 

35 new cases

0 infected from abroad

0 infected Sandbox

 

https://www.facebook.com/phuketinfocenter/posts/355795252742324

 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by anchadian

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

Oh no... ????  

Better book my Thai vacation, LOL!!!  ????  

Yeah, it rained all day today as well, so that’s an added bonus.

[wensiensheng]

39 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Phuket update:

 

35 new cases

0 infected from abroad

0 infected Sandbox

 

https://www.facebook.com/phuketinfocenter/posts/355795252742324

 

 

I’m hopeful the current restrictions in Phuket might be good enough. Stopping inter provincial travelers is quite a big step forward I think. And the other regulations are quite severe, if followed. Trouble is it only takes one super spreader and it can all be for nought. But I am hopeful, put it that way.

 

at least the authorities seem to be fighting.

[Damrongsak]

This Delta variant is bad news.  The U.S. was doing well with vaccinations and number of cases was going down.  On June 28 there were 9686 new Covid cases.  July 28 had 86,058 new cases.  That's about double the rate of Thailand's increase in the same period. But with around 600,000 tests per day they are bound to find more. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

 

Cases/deaths

[DrJack54]

14 minutes ago, Damrongsak said:

This Delta variant is bad news.  The U.S. was doing well with vaccinations and number of cases was going down.  On June 28 there were 9686 new Covid cases.  July 28 had 86,058 new cases.  That's about double the rate of Thailand's increase in the same period. But with around 600,000 tests per day they are bound to find more. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

 

Cases/deaths

Would be interesting to know how many of the new cases were unvaccinated folk.

I don't follow the USA much. I was under the impression that vaccine is readily  available. 

Didn't the gov consider cash incentive payments to encourage people to vaccinate? 

[Bkk Brian]

The variant was also more likely to break through protections afforded by the vaccines, but the health authority said such incidents were very rare. Read more: https://thaip.bs/x7ErpBd

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1421097883743387658

 

[2 is 1]

3 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Would be interesting to know how many of the new cases were unvaccinated folk.

I don't follow the USA much. I was under the impression that vaccine is readily  available. 

Didn't the gov consider cash incentive payments to encourage people to vaccinate? 

Only reason is Delta variant! 

 

One chart shows that it could be as contagious as chickenpox, which is one of the more transmissible viruses out there. It spreads more easily than the common cold, the 1918 flu and smallpox.

 

Leaked CDC Document.

 

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/29/1022580439/a-cdc-internal-report-says-the-delta-variant-is-more-transmissible-than-a-cold?t=1627652739105

[2 is 1]

LOL Brian you just beat me

[DrJack54]

Just now, 2 is 1 said:

LOL Brian you just beat me

Yes but of those tested positive in recent weeks how many were previously vaccinated. 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, DrJack54 said:

Yes but of those tested positive in recent weeks how many were previously vaccinated. 

That is the question of the day, and one that we may never know.

[Bkk Brian]

Delta also hitting China now:

 

A Covid outbreak first discovered in the Chinese city of Nanjing has spread to five provinces and Beijing, with state media calling it the most extensive contagion after Wuhan.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58021911

[DrJack54]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

That is the question of the day, and one that we may never know.

Geez. Im surprised. I would have imagined that collection of data relating to vaccination status at the time of covid test would have been a basic requirement.

[JupiterRising]

12 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I will still stick with my prediction of 20,000 official cases per day by the end of next week.

It is clear to see with worldometer to keep the trend rising and over 30k+ in 12 days time. 
looking at Europe and the UK, plus the USA on worldometer and how their cases rose exponentially in the historical data, is clear to see and calculate. This isn’t fake news, it is a forecast on previous country’s data and Thailand’s current data. Just to make sure and numbers have not been wrong on historical data of Europe, UK, and the USA .

However, what is a primary factor to the reporting, is if the country still submits valid and real data, and that are still enough PCR tests to keep testing in Thailand. 

[superal]

7 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

One of the highest daily vaccination numbers yesterday. If they can keep up the increase, maybe they can get to a reasonable run rate.

 

or, it may be an artifact from yesterday’s low public holiday figure. 555

 

lets hope it’s the former.

From the 1st jab they are waiting 12 weeks to give the 2nd jab , then add another 2 weeks for the vaccine to be at its highest protection level , so 14 weeks if you get a jab today before you get some sort of protection . That's a long time and the virus aint hanging around  . It's like a population going to war without any weapons , a massacre . I hear that Vietnam has ordered a total lockdown and every household has been given food tokens . That at least is showing care and compassion but in Thailand what is being offered ?  I can see widespread looting of food stores soon as desperate starving Thai folks try to help their families . Up in some provinces (Surin ) both local hospitals are full with covid patients . I imagine it will be a similar case country wide . The government better put a lid on this soon or there may be serious repercussions .

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, superal said:

From the 1st jab they are waiting 12 weeks to give the 2nd jab , then add another 2 weeks for the vaccine to be at its highest protection level , so 14 weeks if you get a jab today before you get some sort of protection . That's a long time and the virus aint hanging around  . It's like a population going to war without any weapons , a massacre . I hear that Vietnam has ordered a total lockdown and every household has been given food tokens . That at least is showing care and compassion but in Thailand what is being offered ?  I can see widespread looting of food stores soon as desperate starving Thai folks try to help their families . Up in some provinces (Surin ) both local hospitals are full with covid patients . I imagine it will be a similar case country wide . The government better put a lid on this soon or there may be serious repercussions .

I think the authorities are aware of the protection issue while waiting for a second jab. I understand that was one of the reasons for switching to first dose sinovax, second dose AZ. The second jab can be 3-4 weeks after the first, rather than 12 weeks.

 

The relatively low protection from two sinovax was probably the primary consideration but the reduced timing for the second dose was another factor, from what I read.

[DrJack54]

9 minutes ago, superal said:

I can see widespread looting of food stores soon as desperate starving Thai folks try to help their families

Think that's painting it a bit thick.

 

[Bkk Brian]

34 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Geez. Im surprised. I would have imagined that collection of data relating to vaccination status at the time of covid test would have been a basic requirement.

This gives some idea in the US:

 

In June, fully vaccinated people accounted for 20%, or 1 in 5, COVID cases in the county, which is the most populous in the United States. The increase mirrors Delta's rise. The proportion of breakthrough cases is up from 11% in May, 5% in April, and 2% in March, according to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210726/breakthrough-cases-rising-with-delta-heres-what-that-means

[wensiensheng]

35 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Think that's painting it a bit thick.

 

Agreed, in my experience country folk don’t starve because they can live off the land and in any case, rice is so cheap. My main concern is that people might do silly things, like go to mafia style money lenders and end up losing the family land, or gamble on the lottery hoping to win a bit a money.

 

I can’t speak for bangkok and surrounding cities, I’ve never lived there.

[rabas]

Ref2

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

I think the authorities are aware of the protection issue while waiting for a second jab. I understand that was one of the reasons for switching to first dose sinovax, second dose AZ. The second jab can be 3-4 weeks after the first, rather than 12 weeks.

 

The relatively low protection from two sinovax was probably the primary consideration but the reduced timing for the second dose was another factor, from what I read.

The only time a long delay is needed is from AZ shot 1 to AZ shot 2. 

 

This is because the body's immune system learns to reject AZ's 'viral vector' delivery system after seeing shot 1, necessitating a wait. This was first discovered in AZ's early phase 3 trial. Oxford has now said best results come after a 45 week delay.  Ref1 and Ref2.

 

You can take two shots of AZ a few weeks apart (as in the first trial) but the efficacy stinks. Interestingly, the Russians used two different viral vectors for shot 1 and 2 to avoid this effect. J&J used a single dose.

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by rabas

[Dogmatix]

52 minutes ago, rabas said:

Ref2

The only time a long delay is needed is from AZ shot 1 to AZ shot 2. 

 

This is because the body's immune system learns to reject AZ's 'viral vector' delivery system after seeing shot 1, necessitating a wait. This was first discovered in AZ's early phase 3 trial. Oxford has now said best results come after a 45 week delay.  Ref1 and Ref2.

 

You can take two shots of AZ a few weeks apart (as in the first trial) but the efficacy stinks. Interestingly, the Russians used two different viral vectors for shot 1 and 2 to avoid this effect. J&J used a single dose.

 

Sinopharm also uses two different vaccines like Sputnik.  Since Sinopharm and Sinovac use very similar methodology, it raises the question whether immunity provided by Sinovac's second shot which is exactly the same vaccine as the first is compromised. 

[Dogmatix]

Someone passed me a rumour about a more strict lockdown coming up soon. They have talked of possible stricter measures but it hard to think what more effective measures they could take, short of a Wuhan style ockdown where guards stop people going out of apartment buildings and every business is shut apart from essential ones.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Dogmatix