More lockdown measures will lead to record low tourism revenue figures, TAT chief

[wensiensheng]

35 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Toyota has stopped all vehicle production due to a shortage of parts.

 

Loads of factories are closed in Chonburi.

Good to know. I didn’t realize that there are widespread factory closures. I don’t know what percentage are closed or what industries they represent. Clearly if it’s a big percentage in important industries it will have an impact.

[monty1412]

just by chance the TAT Chief and Anutin.. did they attend the same high school and have the same maths teacher ?? Just a fleeting thought

[MrJ2U]

10 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Would be interesting to know exactly what the 1000s of employees at TAT are doing now? Surely, not all of them can sit and come up with fantasy arrival numbers day in day out and get payed.... Or? 

Many of them work overseas.  

Probably enjoying an evening out having dinner and drinks after being fully vaccinated months ago by there host country.

[Albert Zweistein]

This guy is really brilliant !

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

Yutthasak Suphasorn noted that the third wave of the pandemic that started in Thailand in April was now largely out of control despite lockdown measures being in place in 13 deep red zone provinces. 

I'm in a deep red zone.. what lock-down measures?

Bars are closed, that's it.

Everything else is open at some point during the day, I can go out and get or do pretty much what I want to do.

[except get a vaccination that is] 

[Sydebolle]

Rarely saw a more incompetent, money driven bunch of greedy selfless clowns. Best is to close all those funny little offices - the present set-up is more than embarrassing and face-losing ....... your call! 

[klauskunkel]

Quote

More lockdown measures will lead to record low tourism revenue figures, TAT chief

What?! No more Trillions? Gazillions?

Do your job and get a calculator. I want to read NUMBERS!

[tomacht8]

19 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Well it’s not worse than 1998 for one thing. Thailand is forecast to have about 1% economic growth by its central bank. 1998 saw a severe contraction.

 

secondly manufacturers are producing. Some factories are closed, but relatively few. And those that close, reopen in a couple of weeks.

 

thirdly Thailand’s economic fundamentals still aren’t too bad. Relatively low government borrowing, very decent foreign currency reserves.

 

having said all that, the baht is weakening. Not long ago it was 31 to USD. It may well weaken further if the Covid situation is perceived to not be improving. But an imminent collapse doesn’t seem to be on the cards because there isn’t a sudden shock to the financial system, as happened in 1998. Everyone knows about Covid, so it’s more a process of a slow grind downward and financial systems can cope with that more easily than sudden shocks.

I would partly disagree with that. The general data of the country (national debt and currency reserves) ok. But there is a cascading effect from the tourism sector to all other sectors. Hotels, restaurants, motorcycle rentals, massage shops, bars, tour operators, entertainment companies, attractions, taxi companies, Airlines, Minivans, have to close and lay off staff = no income. 

 

This leads to the second wave of economic contraction. Loss of rent for house-, land- and shop lessors. Loans can no longer be serviced. Loans to the limit. Investments, repairs, activity in the construction sector declines, More layoffs. Consumption for non-food retail (white goods, motorcycles, fashion, phones, etc.) is falling. More layoffs. Shopping Mails are empty, more loss of rent. Less income for many, credit problems.

 

The money that many Thai service workers have earned in the cities is now missing on the countryside in the north-east.

 

Third wave: All of these effects reduce the demand and are now slowly reflected in production. Less consumer goods are produced. And staff layoffs again. Even the 80 baht for the monthly hairdresser are no longer left.

 

And the fourth wave comes late: tax losses and banks with their backs to the wall. By then, at the latest, the general data that was praised at the beginning will deteriorate seriously.

 

I see the consequences for the Thai economy more dramatically here.

 

 

[Henryford]

On 7/31/2021 at 11:41 AM, WEBBYB808 said:

I really do not understand  economics,  so can someone explain how the baht holds strong at just under 33 to 1 USD?  I mean if manufacturers aren't  producing,  then that stands to reason there are little to no exports.   People within the borders are consuming. and possibly  more dependent on imports, produce, and fuel.  How does the baht stay at its point if the media already labels it worse than 1998?

Because the dollar is totally <deleted> as well. With 27 trillion of printed funny money it's a wonder they even get 33.

[wensiensheng]

7 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

I would partly disagree with that. The general data of the country (national debt and currency reserves) ok. But there is a cascading effect from the tourism sector to all other sectors. Hotels, restaurants, motorcycle rentals, massage shops, bars, tour operators, entertainment companies, attractions, taxi companies, Airlines, Minivans, have to close and lay off staff = no income. 

 

This leads to the second wave of economic contraction. Loss of rent for house-, land- and shop lessors. Loans can no longer be serviced. Loans to the limit. Investments, repairs, activity in the construction sector declines, More layoffs. Consumption for non-food retail (white goods, motorcycles, fashion, phones, etc.) is falling. More layoffs. Shopping Mails are empty, more loss of rent. Less income for many, credit problems.

 

The money that many Thai service workers have earned in the cities is now missing on the countryside in the north-east.

 

Third wave: All of these effects reduce the demand and are now slowly reflected in production. Less consumer goods are produced. And staff layoffs again. Even the 80 baht for the monthly hairdresser are no longer left.

 

And the fourth wave comes late: tax losses and banks with their backs to the wall. By then, at the latest, the general data that was praised at the beginning will deteriorate seriously.

 

I see the consequences for the Thai economy more dramatically here.

 

 

I don’t think you disagreed with what I said. What you did was to extrapolate the current position, which as I said is not as bad as 1998, and then added on future phases that are likely to happen. None of which I disagree with by the way.

 

but the original question that I answered was, why isn’t the baht depreciating when the situation is as bad as 1998. My answer was that currently it isn’t as bad as 1998. Next year when the second, third, fourth waves that you describe, come about, maybe.
 

But 1998 was pretty bad. The whole country was bankrupt, some very major companies went to the wall and there was a massive debt issue because so much company debt was denominated in USD, which ballooned in terms of Thai baht once the THB crashed.

 

TBH, I see a lot of pain for individuals and small players, but the major companies don’t have the debt issues that they had in 1998. Rather than going bankrupt, more likely they will pick up cheap assets.

[tomacht8]

12 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I don’t think you disagreed with what I said. What you did was to extrapolate the current position, which as I said is not as bad as 1998, and then added on future phases that are likely to happen. None of which I disagree with by the way.

 

but the original question that I answered was, why isn’t the baht depreciating when the situation is as bad as 1998. My answer was that currently it isn’t as bad as 1998. Next year when the second, third, fourth waves that you describe, come about, maybe.
 

But 1998 was pretty bad. The whole country was bankrupt, some very major companies went to the wall and there was a massive debt issue because so much company debt was denominated in USD, which ballooned in terms of Thai baht once the THB crashed.

 

TBH, I see a lot of pain for individuals and small players, but the major companies don’t have the debt issues that they had in 1998. Rather than going bankrupt, more likely they will pick up cheap assets.

Understand. The economic crisis at that time was a shock. The Thai Baht had lost 50% of its value from one day to the next. However, the impact on the normal domestic population was not as severe as it is now, at the time of the pandemic. I personally experienced the time here when the coupling of the thai baht to the dollar broke.

 

[wensiensheng]

9 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Understand. The economic crisis at that time was a shock. The Thai Baht had lost 50% of its value from one day to the next. However, the impact on the normal domestic population was not as severe as it is now, at the time of the pandemic. I personally experienced the time here when the coupling of the thai baht to the dollar broke.

 

Yeah, I was working in Private banking in Singapore at the time. Took over the office in November 1997 after relocating from Europe. Welcome to Asia.

[nauseus]

On 7/31/2021 at 11:41 AM, WEBBYB808 said:

I really do not understand  economics,  so can someone explain how the baht holds strong at just under 33 to 1 USD?  I mean if manufacturers aren't  producing,  then that stands to reason there are little to no exports.   People within the borders are consuming. and possibly  more dependent on imports, produce, and fuel.  How does the baht stay at its point if the media already labels it worse than 1998?

First reason is the "media" and what they say.

 

Second is that, this time, economic damage is building slowly, with Thailand still exporting and still having good foreign currency reserves. Not so in 1997, when the Baht was suddenly floated after increasing current account problems, declining exports as well as too many bad loans and investments. 

 

Edited August 1, 2021 by nauseus
declining

[Artisi]

19 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

This guy must have been to university and gotten a double A 1st in stupidity.

sure with some effort he could have done better with a 1st in dumbness, 1st in insensitivity,  and with honours in "stating the bloody obvious"

[RubbaJohnny]

21 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

process of a slow grind

Now there's a slogan for mongerhunger, Amazing Thighland what a wai to Go !

[WEBBYB808]

21 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Well it’s not worse than 1998 for one thing. Thailand is forecast to have about 1% economic growth by its central bank. 1998 saw a severe contraction.

 

secondly manufacturers are producing. Some factories are closed, but relatively few. And those that close, reopen in a couple of weeks.

 

thirdly Thailand’s economic fundamentals still aren’t too bad. Relatively low government borrowing, very decent foreign currency reserves.

 

having said all that, the baht is weakening. Not long ago it was 31 to USD. It may well weaken further if the Covid situation is perceived to not be improving. But an imminent collapse doesn’t seem to be on the cards because there isn’t a sudden shock to the financial system, as happened in 1998. Everyone knows about Covid, so it’s more a process of a slow grind downward and financial systems can cope with that more easily than sudden shocks.

Thank you, and now I have a better understanding. 

[Scrotobike]

On 7/31/2021 at 11:41 AM, WEBBYB808 said:

I really do not understand  economics,  so can someone explain how the baht holds strong at just under 33 to 1 USD?  I mean if manufacturers aren't  producing,  then that stands to reason there are little to no exports.   People within the borders are consuming. and possibly  more dependent on imports, produce, and fuel.  How does the baht stay at its point if the media already labels it worse than 1998?

Lots of reasons - Selling USD - the exporters who hold their funds in USD will convert as the Bhat drops, slowing it down. 

[Uroller]

On 7/31/2021 at 11:41 AM, WEBBYB808 said:

I really do not understand  economics,  so can someone explain how the baht holds strong at just under 33 to 1 USD?  I mean if manufacturers aren't  producing,  then that stands to reason there are little to no exports.   People within the borders are consuming. and possibly  more dependent on imports, produce, and fuel.  How does the baht stay at its point if the media already labels it worse than 1998?

Simple answer is that the Government is sitting on millions and millions of US dollars and refuse to spend them on the pandemic or anything else for that matter????It’s a false economy that props up the baht and keeps control of the Thailand cash????????????

[Dogmatix]

Amazing Thailand. See an uncontrolled pandemic in action in an unvaccinated population. Step over bodies in the street while passing shuttered businesses. Get confined to your hotel. Find your flight home is cancelled and your country is not allowing arrivals from Thailand. End up on an enforced extended holiday and lose your job at home. Queue up in the sun without social distancing outside an immigration office to extend your visa. Your unvaccinated kids get seriously ill with COVID and have to wait 5 days for beds.  You are charged through the nose for medical treatment which your insuarance refuses to cover.  Spend millions of dollars in Thaiand anyway.  Amazing indeed.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Dogmatix

[robblok]

 

 

1 hour ago, Uroller said:

Simple answer is that the Government is sitting on millions and millions of US dollars and refuse to spend them on the pandemic or anything else for that matter????It’s a false economy that props up the baht and keeps control of the Thailand cash????????????

Let me try to figure that one out. If you sell off dollars who they have according to you and buy baht to spend in Thailand then the Baht would increase its value as there is more demand. So something in your story does not make sense.

[zhounan]

Staking national salvation on Onlyfans

[zhounan]

22 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Toyota has stopped all vehicle production due to a shortage of parts.

 

Loads of factories are closed in Chonburi.

Really?

Do you have any article to read?

Thanks.

[Mr Meeseeks]

2 minutes ago, zhounan said:

Really?

Do you have any article to read?

Thanks.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Toyota-halts-factories-in-Thailand-as-COVID-hits-supply-chain

[CrunchWrapSupreme]

Well, in the news I keep seeing these events in which people try gathering to enjoy themselves socializing and drinking alcohol. ???????????????? You know, I really miss it myself. But then for this, the police soon arrive and take them all to the station to pay hefty fines. ????‍♂️???? Darn, they were supposed to have stayed in their condos and hotel rooms and just put on the Netflix. Hmm, yes. Can't see this sort of arrangement sitting too well with tourists.

[NeoDinosaw]

On 7/31/2021 at 3:58 AM, kotsak said:

Not really, somebody just dropped the abacus on the floor..

the abacus gave more reliable results

 

[Stargeezr]

The way the COVID case numbers keep increasing,Thailand will all be deep

red to the rest of the world by October, and will not get many tourists wanting to go

there. Vaccinate, vaccinate, as testing does nothing to improve the

current situation.

Geezer

[worgeordie]

They will come up with a new slogan next.......Amazing Thailand ...????

regards worgeordie

[Meat Pie 47]

6 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

They will come up with a new slogan next.......Amazing Thailand ...????

regards worgeordie

They did already but it is called Amusing Thailand ????

[Uroller]

21 hours ago, robblok said:

 

 

Let me try to figure that one out. If you sell off dollars who they have according to you and buy baht to spend in Thailand then the Baht would increase its value as there is more demand. So something in your story does not make sense.

They are not buying baht, why would they as it’s not a “world” currency????

[robblok]

4 minutes ago, Uroller said:

They are not buying baht, why would they as it’s not a “world” currency????

I guess you don't understand one bit of it. If they have dollars and they want to help people in Thailand they will use baht. So they will be buying baht with dollars so that would increase the demand for baht. Only if imports exceed exports will the baht drop more. As imports are usually paid in dollars or euros exports will go mainly in baht. 

 

Where did you study economics ?