Baht could sink even further, analyst warns

[Kwasaki]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:20 AM, Chosenfew said:

What happens to banks when many Thai’s cannot pay their mortgage and car payments?

That's obvious they couldn't give a rats they end up with lots of property and lots of cars.

[Gottfrid]

On 8/4/2021 at 11:13 PM, webfact said:

Thailand’s baht could weaken further after reaching its lowest point since late 2017 level of 33 baht per USD, an analyst at Krungsri Securities said on Wednesday

That´s a brilliant mind. This analyst is the sharpest tool in the box. Actually, that is what´s so fantastic with currencies. They move up and down all the time.

[rott]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Well, it might be a rather interesting twist of fate. Many of us feel the government deliberately allowed the cat out of the bag, so to speak, to prevent the protests from swelling. No doubt there would be millions on the street right now, if it were not for Covid, and the ensuing laws that prevent the gatherings now. How very convenient. How ironic would it be, if the same actions, or should we say lack of actions, are what brought this administration down, due to a collapsed economy. 

 

I agree, I do not like seeing the Thai people in pain. However they were already in pain two years ago. On so many levels, as the goon leadership has been moving the nation backwards for quite some time. Sometimes pain is required to bring about change and growth. 

That does beg the question of what sort of administration would replace it. 

[Caldera]

13 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Were those tourist arrival figures reliable ?

Every year for the past 7 or so years , you could see a noticeable decline in the tourist numbers .

   The high season used to be from September to March and that changed to having a high season in December and January and yet the stated tourist figures increased every year (by record numbers) .

   Could it be possible that the tourist figures were not accurate ?

The arrival numbers were probably correct, but when you replace someone from a high income country holidaying in Thailand for 2-3 weeks with a Malaysian popping across the border for a weekend or a Chinese zero dollar group tour participant staying for 4-5 days, revenue suffers despite higher arrival numbers.

[spidermike007]

4 minutes ago, rott said:

That does beg the question of what sort of administration would replace it. 

Justin Bieber. Sorn the plumber. Nam the bargirl. Porntip the maid. Thanathorn. Thaksin, LOL. They would all be far more capable than the current leadership. 

 

Speaking of the current leadership, name their five msot successful policies in the past 7 years. Please. I dare you to even try. 

[spidermike007]

3 minutes ago, Caldera said:

The arrival numbers were probably correct, but when you replace someone from a high income country holidaying in Thailand for 2-3 weeks with a Malaysian popping across the border for a weekend or a Chinese zero dollar group tour participant staying for 4-5 days, revenue suffers despite higher arrival numbers.

We do not even know what those tourism numbers represented. Can anything this administration does be trusted? No.

 

Were they total arrivals? Did they include some transit passengers? Did they include business arrivals? How about ex-pats traveling back and forth? Were we deliberately excluded to create a more accurate indicator? I seriously doubt it. 

[spidermike007]

26 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Were those tourist arrival figures reliable ?

Every year for the past 7 or so years , you could see a noticeable decline in the tourist numbers .

   The high season used to be from September to March and that changed to having a high season in December and January and yet the stated tourist figures increased every year (by record numbers) .

   Could it be possible that the tourist figures were not accurate ?

Very probable. Everyone I know in the tourism industry, and that is alot of people, complained about falling revenue, a far lower quality of tourist and the decline of the industry. This goes back five years or longer. 

 

Prayuth and Phiphat where the two worst things to even happen to the once vital and important tourism industry. The sabateurs in chief. And the same can be said about Thailand in general. They are very dark clouds on the nation's future, and likely to cause a decline of Angolan proportions. 

 

They must go. Whatever it takes. 

[Advocate]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

You have a consistent habit of under estimating the amount of damage done here, and over estimating the capability of the leadership here. 

 

I would suspect 80% in the tourism sector would disagree with you. 

 

Thailand was facing horrendous tourism issues long before Covid came along. Numbers were up, yet revenue was way, way down. The lower to lower middle income earners from China, India and Malaysia was never going to be a solution. Simply a bandaid applied by inept and incapable men. 

 

And even with the tourism break, no effort is being made on any level to address the pre-Covid issues. None. Nunca. Nada. Zero. 

 

One might have hoped the authorities would gain some humility and perspective from all this. It appears they are a very inferior human subset, and are not capable of learning adapting or improving. 

 

Woe is Thailand. 

There is so much ignorance and anti-Thai bias in this forum.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue

 

Tourism revenue chart:

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

You have a consistent habit of under estimating the amount of damage done here, and over estimating the capability of the leadership here. 

 

I would suspect 80% in the tourism sector would disagree with you. 

 

Thailand was facing horrendous tourism issues long before Covid came along. Numbers were up, yet revenue was way, way down. The lower to lower middle income earners from China, India and Malaysia was never going to be a solution. Simply a bandaid applied by inept and incapable men. 

 

And even with the tourism break, no effort is being made on any level to address the pre-Covid issues. None. Nunca. Nada. Zero. 

 

One might have hoped the authorities would gain some humility and perspective from all this. It appears they are a very inferior human subset, and are not capable of learning adapting or improving. 

 

Woe is Thailand. 

You have a habit of making all sorts of assertions and providing no evidence. What were these horrendous issues?

And you got anything to back up your contention that revenues were "way, way down"? Because the World Bank disagrees with you quite sharply.

 

 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?end=2018&locations=TH&start=1995

 

[rott]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Justin Bieber. Sorn the plumber. Nam the bargirl. Porntip the maid. Thanathorn. Thaksin, LOL. They would all be far more capable than the current leadership. 

 

Speaking of the current leadership, name their five msot successful policies in the past 7 years. Please. I dare you to even try. 

LOL I was not being a Prayuth apologist, I was being practical, what would the new government be like.? Would it be a direct return to the mess that sparked the coup.? 

Just thinking aloud chum. 

[spidermike007]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You have a habit of making all sorts of assertions and providing no evidence. What were these horrendous issues?

And you got anything to back up your contention that revenues were "way, way down"? Because the World Bank disagrees with you quite sharply.

 

 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?end=2018&locations=TH&start=1995

 

I'll tell you what. Rather than cite a number of references, why don't I suggest talk to ten or twenty hotel owners, managers, GM's, F & B people, restauranteurs, owners of bars, massage shops, spas, travel agencies, and other tourism related businesses. Ask them about their revenue and quality of customer over the period of time the relatively useless and spectacularly corrupt World Bank shows on the chart. How about over the past ten years. Five years? See what they have to say. Then get back to us here on this forum.

 

Cite the big numbers all you want. Many of us prefer the real world over these "nitwit experts". 

 

And this is my last reply. I can tell when I am being baited, and I do not have the time for someone unwillingness to listen to reason, nor to look at how things actually are, in the real world. Ask anyone. You do not need to listen to me. But, embrace truth, above all. 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

I'll tell you what. Rather than cite a number of references, why don't I suggest talk to ten or twenty hotel owners, managers, GM's, F & B people, restauranteurs, owners of bars, massage shops, spas, travel agencies, and other tourism related businesses. Ask them about their revenue and quality of customer over the period of time the relatively useless and spectacularly corrupt World Bank shows on the chart. How about over the past ten years. Five years? See what they have to say. Then get back to us here on this forum.

 

Cite the big numbers all you want. Many of us prefer the real world over these "nitwit experts". 

 

And this is my last reply. I can tell when I am being baited, and I do not have the time for someone unwillingness to listen to reason, nor to look at how things actually are, in the real world. Ask anyone. You do not need to listen to me. But, embrace truth, above all. 

Right. Do you actually imagine yourself to be the embodiment of reason? Your evidence is alleged conversations you've had with people in the tourism industry. And the world bank is "relatively useless and spectacularly corrupt"" So the voice of reason engages in name calling and absolutely no verifiable facts to back up his allegations. Maybe the voice of reason can tell us why Suvarnaphumi airport was so crowded that it had to be expanded? And why the Don Muang Airport, which was originally supposed to be retired when Suvarnaphumi was created, has actually been renovated with one half of it being devoted to international travel?

Certain people, when you catch them out propounding  falsehoods, further compound their dubious proclivity by attaching titles such as "baiting" to the activities of their critics. You've been caught out well and good with evidence and reasoned arguments.  And all you've got to respond with is name calling and unverifiable facts. Who's doing baiting here? Not me.

[whiteman]

Stay on the subject u2 and stop fighting PLEASE

[Oww]

3 hours ago, whiteman said:

Stay on the subject u2 and stop fighting PLEASE

Are you a moderator? Who are you to decide what direction the conversation goes? 

What I'm reading isn't a fight. It's a pretty darn good debate. Isn't that what forums are for; promoting intelligent consideration? 

[Moo 2]

My wife (Thai) said she would vote for Prayut at the next elections if he raises the bar to 33 Baht for 1 Aussie $.  Is that blackmail or just desperation?

[puck2]

23 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Justin Bieber. Sorn the plumber. Nam the bargirl. Porntip the maid. Thanathorn. Thaksin, LOL. They would all be far more capable than the current leadership. 

 

Speaking of the current leadership, name their five msot successful policies in the past 7 years. Please. I dare you to even try. 

#1

He opened the chance for some falangs that their AUD, US$, GBP, € and other currencies went up the ladder. Thank you, Mister P.  (the only thank you) !

 

[placeholder]

On 8/7/2021 at 3:42 AM, Caldera said:

The arrival numbers were probably correct, but when you replace someone from a high income country holidaying in Thailand for 2-3 weeks with a Malaysian popping across the border for a weekend or a Chinese zero dollar group tour participant staying for 4-5 days, revenue suffers despite higher arrival numbers.

Well, as I pointed out elsewhere, the original plan when Suvarnaphumi was created was for Don Muang to be shut down. Its international wing had to be revived because Suvarnaphumi couldn't handle all the traffic. Now Suvarnaphumi 2 is in the offing.

[ThailandRyan]

Current USD to THB

[DonniePeverley]

One of the most disgusting things about this regime is the way they have not implemented any planning rules. Basically any great soi, historical neighbourhood can be taken down and replaced by a plain old condo. 

 

The way they interfered in busy zones like lower Sukhumvit, Khao San Road, now they want to sanitise China Town. 

 

The banning of all street food, because of some blind belief they want to look like Singapore - despite millions more heading to Thailand because of the crazyness in Bangkok. 

[lapamita]

analyst 3 yr ago baht at 30 could rise and apreciate in value.......blablabla

 

baht down

analyst  the baht could weaken further ................blablabla

 

nobody goes in longterm prediction..to dangerous to be wrong , only blablabla

 

chart looks up .... rise in price target

chart looks down... reducing price traget

charts sideways ..they shut mouth

[Smithson]

What's a quality tourist?

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Smithson said:

What's a quality tourist?

Ones who doesn't need a GoFundMe page.

[whiteman]

looks like the Bhat is steading today ????

[userabcd]

Just think if the baht weakens too much its possible immigration will be raising their min financial requirements again.

[heybuz]

On 8/5/2021 at 10:14 AM, JimHuaHin said:

50 Baht = A$1 would be nice.

not with scummbo running the country he is trying to turn it into the argentina of the south pacific.

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, userabcd said:

Just think if the baht weakens too much its possible immigration will be raising their min financial requirements again.

Again? When was the last time.....

[spermwhale]

On 8/4/2021 at 4:44 PM, vandeventer said:

Yes, it gives you more money in the bank, but prices will go up on most things. I hope you like rice.

Only for imported "things" People with long-term memory remember when the dollar was 40 baht against the baht in 2003 and things did not get cheaper as the baht appreciated, even imported good prices stayed the same. NEVER have I seen the price of imports go down when the baht appreciated.  So your logic is incorrect. 

 

 

[Sudarut]

On 8/7/2021 at 2:42 PM, Caldera said:

The arrival numbers were probably correct, but when you replace someone from a high income country holidaying in Thailand for 2-3 weeks with a Malaysian popping across the border for a weekend or a Chinese zero dollar group tour participant staying for 4-5 days, revenue suffers despite higher arrival numbers.

Also instead of a westerner throwing 20 thousand baht at a lovely working girl during his weekly holiday, you now have 20 arabs trying to get a group deal for 200 baht.

[Pootegg]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:59 AM, RichardColeman said:

The value of your fixed assets only decrease if your intention is to sell them and move back to the UK, Otherwise it makes no difference to you whatsoever, in fact if your fixed assets are housing, you could probably increase your property value as the pound increases. 

My intention is just that . My circumstances have changed partially due to covid but also for other reasons. I want to cash out my  Bangkok properties and return the assets to the UK or USA. If the Pound rise and I sell and  transfer from Baht to Pounds that is  a decrease rather than an increase. Or am I missing something? My intention is to also change my visa status from an o based on retirement and use shorter visa for shorter stays of 2 to 3 months duration . That will also free up the 1.6m Baht my wife and I have in a bank for the visa . That will give us a bit of spending too!

[matchar]

Baht recovered slightly... government intervention?