Thai research body predicts a million jobless by year end if pandemic persists

[snoop1130]

 

Thailand’s economic think-tank, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), predicts that the number of unemployed in the kingdom will reach one million by the end of this year, if the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncontrollable.

 

Associate Professor Yongyuth Chalamwong, director of labour development research in the TDRI’s human resources and social development department, told Thai PBS today (Tuesday) that the partial lockdown measures, imposed by the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration since late July, has had an extensive impact on businesses and the labour market.

 

He warned that, if the situation persists until year end, about a million people will have lost their jobs, accounting for 2.5-3% of people of working age.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-research-body-predicts-a-million-jobless-by-year-end-if-pandemic-persists/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-08-10

 

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[MrJ2U]

Thats a positive spin.

 

I think maybe 20 people out of 800 that currently work in our town.

All teachers, sitting around laughing and drinking.

Everything but teaching.

[HappyExpat57]

I look around Pattaya right now and see a helluva lot more than 3% job loss, closer to 90% of all shops shuttered.

[RotBenz8888]

16 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

will reach one million

The tourist sector alone is probably more than 1 million already. 

[placeholder]

It seems a remarkably low estimate. But the way Thailand figures unemployment does not tally with the way most middle income and fully developed nations do. Even in ordinary times their figures aren't of much use.

[darksidedog]

1 minute ago, RotBenz8888 said:

The tourist sector alone is probably more than 1 million already. 

Took the words out of my mouth. "Could" reach a million?

I wonder what "official" statistics which ignore reality, they are using for that announcement?

Nationwide it is way more than that for sure already, probably by some multiple.

[Scrotobike]

Lots of people just return "home" from the self employment and informal sector - with no funds to register for, people do not register so no way of counting them. 

[scubascuba3]

I wonder what the real figure is, if include those people selling tat, food and sex then maybe 10 million

[MrJ2U]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

I wonder what the real figure is, if include those people selling tat, food and sex then maybe 10 million

At least.

 

Dominoe effect.

[timberpond]

Associate Professor Yongyuth Chalamwong... Really?

[Eibot]

And what would be considered jobless? 

 

People moving back to the sticks and plant banana trees to survive - are they farmers? Since hardly anyone pays tax or is registered, their is simply no way of telling who is employed and who is not. 

 

And what would be considered employed?

People with contracts? People that pay tax?

 

What about people who have a 0 hour contract, no contract at all and live from job to job. 

 

They can predict all they want but I find it unlikely they have the numbers.

 

[tomacht8]

4 minutes ago, Eibot said:

And what would be considered jobless? 

 

People moving back to the sticks and plant banana trees to survive - are they farmers? Since hardly anyone pays tax or is registered, their is simply no way of telling who is employed and who is not. 

 

And what would be considered employed?

People with contracts? People that pay tax?

 

What about people who have a 0 hour contract, no contract at all and live from job to job. 

 

They can predict all they want but I find it unlikely they have the numbers.

 

The informal sector of the Thai economy, comprising anyone who's not covered by formal work 

arrangements, accounted for more than 64% of the total workforce. It includes street vendors and taxi-motorbike drivers, the self-employed and those operating in "grey areas" of the economy [e.g. prostitution]. They are largely counted as employed. 

 

If, for instance, you lose your job as a bank teller and return home and lend a hand at your dad's farm for at least one hour a week, you are considered as employed.

 

The official unemployment figures do not really reflect the situation.

[Eibot]

1 minute ago, tomacht8 said:

The informal sector of the Thai economy, comprising anyone who's not covered by formal work 

arrangements, accounted for more than 64% of the total workforce. It includes street vendors and taxi-motorbike drivers, the self-employed and those operating in "grey areas" of the economy [e.g. prostitution]. They are largely counted as employed. 

 

If, for instance, you lose your job as a bank teller and return home and lend a hand at your dad's farm for at least one hour a week, you are considered as employed.

 

The official unemployment figures do not really reflect the situation.

Interesting, but don't you agree than that for 64% of the population, they have no clue what's going on. Therefore they just don't have the numbers..

[tomacht8]

6 hours ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I look around Pattaya right now and see a helluva lot more than 3% job loss, closer to 90% of all shops shuttered.

This also applies, felt, to all other tourist areas.

[tomacht8]

15 minutes ago, Eibot said:

Interesting, but don't you agree than that for 64% of the population, they have no clue what's going on. Therefore they just don't have the numbers..

Agree 100%

Thailand does not have a general, social safety net for everyone who works. Most of them are not captured,

one-person self-employed and day laborers. Any comparison with unemployment rates in industrialized countries can only be wrong.

Edited August 10, 2021 by tomacht8

[EricTh]

 

I thought at least 10% i.e. 7 million have already lost their jobs? Thailand population is 70 million.

 

1 million doesn't seem right. It's more like 14 million will lose their jobs.

 

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by EricTh

[tomacht8]

44 minutes ago, EricTh said:

 

I thought at least 10% i.e. 7 million have already lost their jobs? Thailand population is 70 million.

 

1 million doesn't seem right. It's more like 14 million will lose their jobs.

 

 

Unfortunately, there are no well aggregated unemployment figures for Thailand.

 

Labor force, total in Thailand was reported at 38.483.357 in 2020, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources.

 

In an article from last year in April 2020, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) expected 7 million job losses. The job loss mainly affects low-income employees who earn less than 20,000 baht a month. According to the JSCCIB, 4.2 million unemployed will come from retail and shopping centers, 1 million from construction, 978,000 from hotels, 250,000 from restaurants, 200,000 from spa and massage shops and 200,000 from the textile industry. 

 

7/38 *100 = 18,4%

Would be my estimate without the gray sector and without the transport sector.

Edited August 10, 2021 by tomacht8

[JeffersLos]

1 hour ago, Eibot said:

And what would be considered jobless? 

People that don't have a job. 

[Kadilo]

7 hours ago, MrJ2U said:

Thats a positive spin.

 

I think maybe 20 people out of 800 that currently work in our town.

All teachers, sitting around laughing and drinking.

Everything but teaching.

Yes but obviously have the health of those children at the forefront. 

[Kadilo]

Which is why they have to open back up for the high season and the way the figures look now along with the vaccine numbers progressing daily it’s looking positive that they can achieve that goal. 

[JensenZ]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

It seems a remarkably low estimate. But the way Thailand figures unemployment does not tally with the way most middle income and fully developed nations do. Even in ordinary times their figures aren't of much use.

They are gifted researches, rounding it off to the nearest million... or are they just pulling numbers out of a hat?

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

They are gifted researches, rounding it off to the nearest million... or are they just pulling numbers out of a hat?

According to an article in the bangkok post, 64% of Thailand's workers are in the informal sector. So their employment levels don't figure in the official figures. The article was from 2015 but I doubt things have changed all that drastically in the intervening years.

[chalawaan]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

It seems a remarkably low estimate. But the way Thailand figures unemployment does not tally with the way most middle income and fully developed nations do. Even in ordinary times their figures aren't of much use.

Millions in the fringes around tourism, mostly nocturnal workers, and not just the usual bargirl suspects, but the support staff, such as bands, cleaners, etc. never counted, 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, chalawaan said:

Millions in the fringes around tourism, mostly nocturnal workers, and not just the usual bargirl suspects, but the support staff, such as bands, cleaners, etc. never counted, 

And there's also the issue of discouraged workers. I don't know how it works in Thailand, but in the US if you've given up looking for a job, you're no longer included in the most common used measure of enemployment.

[RichardColeman]

If Thailand can lose 20% of its GDP from tourism and lose millions of those jobs and still be under 2% unemployment, another million will probably still not break the government's 2% barrier published in 'seasonally adjusted' figures.

[lujanit]

The only way true unemployment figures will be determined is if a fair unemployment status is introduced and benefits are paid to people who meet the criteria.  My guess is that at least 30% of people, maybe a lot more who are in that cohort would be classed as unemployed.

 

The 2% figure is a joke and everyone knows it.

 

 

[Rampant Rabbit]

5 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Which is why they have to open back up for the high season and the way the figures look now along with the vaccine numbers progressing daily it’s looking positive that they can achieve that goal. 

I  think you  need  the worst  joke  section for that comment????

[Moonfire]

Thailand hit that number a LOOOOOONG time ago!  

[Blumpie]

At this rate by the time this is under control they are going to forget every word of english!

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I look around Pattaya right now and see a helluva lot more than 3% job loss, closer to 90% of all shops shuttered.

No question. But this is the Thailand forum not specifically Pattaya. Pattaya was 90%  tourism.....