Is the herd immunity dream dead?

[Harry Om]

"Is it time to call it? Is the dream of herd immunity to COVID-19, at least in the short term, dead?

That’s the assessment of the evidence by several leading scientists – although not everyone agrees.

Delta is so contagious, they argue, it pushes the herd immunity threshold to an almost unreachable point."

 

https://www.theage.com.au/national/is-the-herd-immunity-dream-dead-20210809-p58h50.html

[starky]

Was that dream ever real?

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, Harry Om said:

Delta is so contagious, they argue, it pushes the herd immunity threshold to an almost unreachable point."

Even the Black Death reached herd immunity. Had it not I doubt any of us would be around now.

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

 

Delta variant renders herd immunity from Covid ‘mythical’

Head of Oxford Vaccine Group rules out overall immunity, but also questions need for booster jabs

[it is what it is]

 

what will likely happen is covid will become endemic and we'll learnt to live with it as we do with so many viruses and other medical conditions

[cmarshall]

Herd immunity may not be achievable.  In Michigan 50% of the deer are infected with Covid.  Probably other wild mammal species are also.  We're not going to vaccinate the deer.  So, humans will now be in constant contact with an animal reservoir.  So, goodbye herd immunity.

[placeholder]

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Even the Black Death reached herd immunity. Had it not I doubt any of us would be around now.

Black Death is bacterial. Not so quick to mutate as certain viruses.

[placeholder]

Actually, measles is more contagious. But not prone to mutate in a way that affects immunity. 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, placeholder said:

Black Death is bacterial. Not so quick to mutate as certain viruses.

Viruses have been around as long as humans, and if we hadn't achieved herd immunity homo sapiens would likely have perished 50,000 years ago.

 

A more recent example is when sailors from the old world reached the new centuries ago they infected the locals and many died, but after reaching herd immunity their tribes survived, even till today.

[johng]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/10/delta-variant-has-wrecked-hopes-herd-immunity-warn-scientists/

 

"Prof Hunter, who advises the World Health Organisation on Covid, also said it was time to change the way the data was collected and recorded as the virus became endemic.

"We need to start moving away from just reporting infections, or just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid," he added. "Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don't translate into disease burden."

 

[cmarshall]

1 hour ago, johng said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/10/delta-variant-has-wrecked-hopes-herd-immunity-warn-scientists/

 

"Prof Hunter, who advises the World Health Organisation on Covid, also said it was time to change the way the data was collected and recorded as the virus became endemic.

"We need to start moving away from just reporting infections, or just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid," he added. "Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don't translate into disease burden."

 

New cases represent not the disease burden, but the risk burden.

[vandeventer]

23 hours ago, it is what it is said:

 

what will likely happen is covid will become endemic and we'll learnt to live with it as we do with so many viruses and other medical conditions

Variants will come and go and God only knows when a new strain will be coming our way. If the strain is not natural based [produced in a lab] we could be in for a world of hurt.

[Kevin Taylor]

Either herd immunity is still possible or it is endemic and we have to learn to live with it. Neither possibility is helped in any way by continued lockdowns causing much bigger problems for society. At some point if you want to live it's time to venture back out and start living again. If you are one of the people who fall into the 7 or 9 morbitities, you might want to play it safe, your call. Keeping a healthy population locked up and not working serves no purpose if you ever want to move past covid.

[Skallywag]

Herd immunity likely will not happen.

Simple solution for most is to get vaccinated. The vaccines were designed to prevent severe illness, not infection.

 

Unvaccinated and you are playing Russian roulette every time you go out for the rest of your life.

 

[japanese]

Herd immunity can only happen with natural immunity and/or with a vaccine that provides for sterilizing immunity.

 

The covid vaccines are 'leaky' and do not provide sterilizing immunity.

 

Ergo mass vaccination has led to a situation whereby herd immunity is not possible. 

 

Further, we will likely see a never ending cycle of mutations that will infect vaccinated, and unvaccinated that do not already have natural immunity. There is also a risk that more deadly strains will emerge from vaccinated people.  Usually deadly strains finish off the host and in doing so finish themselves off.  'Leaky' vaccines may allow the host to survive, so the mutated strain may be passed on to another host.

 

At least the unvaccinated will likely only catch covid once.

 

We may see a future of people being weened off the vaccines, and a lot of people angry with their government/workplace having been pushed to get a vaccine without full information.  And maybe 'unvaccinated passports' issued to those with natural immunity whilst vaccinated are asked to shelter at home...

[Polar Bear]

 I currently know 3 people (in 2 countries) who had COVID last year, and are sick with it again now. They probably had Alpha the first time and Delta now, but that's speculation. All under 35, all otherwise healthy. None of them were hospitalised either time, but 2 of them are pretty sick at home right now. The 3rd, who is symptomatic but not feeling too rough, was also double vaccinated with Sputnik at the beginning of this year, but with such a small sample, that could just be a coincidence. Either way, neither natural immunity nor vaccinations are entirely preventing people from catching it again, but the global figures do suggest they are still helping to prevent hospitalisation. But if people can be reinfected within a year or so, herd immunity will never be possible through natural immunity from having had it previously. The only way it could happen is if better vaccines are developed that can prevent infection from a broader range of variants. 

In the meantime, we have no idea what the long term effects are. COVID does far more short term damage than the flu does, and a bout of the flu can do permanent damage to the heart and lungs. We are already seeing short & medium term damage to hearts, lungs, kidneys and brains from COVID, even in younger patients. We won't know what the long term effects are for a long while yet, but the 25 year olds shrugging off an infection now could be in for a shock in 10-20 years time.

Edited August 12, 2021 by Polar Bear

[mrfill]

On 8/11/2021 at 7:12 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Even the Black Death reached herd immunity. Had it not I doubt any of us would be around now.

There was never herd immunity to the black death. It was eliminated by quarantine (the proper stuff - 40 days) and severe lockdowns. Well, not actually eliminated as it kept returning regularly up to the late 16th century although the last outbreak was around Los Angeles in 1925.

[Skeptic7]

On 8/11/2021 at 3:32 PM, it is what it is said:

 

what will likely happen is covid will become endemic and we'll learnt to live with it as we do with so many viruses and other medical conditions

Agreed, but too bad so sad it's going on 2 years and there's no hint at learning to live with it. Should have accepted it and learned that a year ago. Better yet, from the very beginning. Controlling nature, controlling the world's population and trying to control (and halt) every single death in a population of 8 billion are all impossible tasks and fool's errands. 

[hotchilli]

On 8/10/2021 at 8:02 PM, starky said:

Was that dream ever real?

In some peoples mind yes.

[Polar Bear]

5 minutes ago, mrfill said:

There was never herd immunity to the black death. It was eliminated by quarantine (the proper stuff - 40 days) and severe lockdowns. Well, not actually eliminated as it kept returning regularly up to the late 16th century although the last outbreak was around Los Angeles in 1925.

The plague was never eliminated. Over a thousand people still contract it every year. There was a major outbreak in Madagascar in 2017, and it was streptomycin resistant. There are usually several cases in the USA every year (7 is the average). There was one in California last year. But we have got much better at treating it. As far as I know, the last deaths in the USA were 2015. But with antibiotic resistant strains on the rise, there is a new global push for a vaccine.

[placnx]

50 minutes ago, japanese said:

Herd immunity can only happen with natural immunity and/or with a vaccine that provides for sterilizing immunity.

 

The covid vaccines are 'leaky' and do not provide sterilizing immunity.

 

Ergo mass vaccination has led to a situation whereby herd immunity is not possible. 

 

Further, we will likely see a never ending cycle of mutations that will infect vaccinated, and unvaccinated that do not already have natural immunity. There is also a risk that more deadly strains will emerge from vaccinated people.  Usually deadly strains finish off the host and in doing so finish themselves off.  'Leaky' vaccines may allow the host to survive, so the mutated strain may be passed on to another host.

 

At least the unvaccinated will likely only catch covid once.

 

We may see a future of people being weened off the vaccines, and a lot of people angry with their government/workplace having been pushed to get a vaccine without full information.  And maybe 'unvaccinated passports' issued to those with natural immunity whilst vaccinated are asked to shelter at home...

Evidence is emerging that people infected with the original strain can be infected by Delta, especially if they had a mild case the first time. So discount herd immunity through infection.

 

As for herd immunity through vaccination, it will not be achieved until there is a big increase in mRNA production capacity and an efficient distribution system to get ahead of the variants. This production should be handled by countries with advanced capability in mRNA technology, since production by amateurs would undermine confidence in the safety and efficacity of mRNA vaccine.

 

It would help a lot if the world (via WHO?) could develop a unified vaccine passport that would be connected to a database that monitors the many vaccines that are emerging, so that people can know whether they are really protected at any point in time.

[Tropposurfer]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, measles is more contagious. But not prone to mutate in a way that affects immunity. 

And, in except for very ,very rare, and those infected as mature adults it is not fatal nor does it have severe comorbidity features as Covid strains do. So while it like measles is also a virus I fail to see the efficacy of making such a comparison.

[placnx]

4 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

The plague was never eliminated. Over a thousand people still contract it every year. There was a major outbreak in Madagascar in 2017, and it was streptomycin resistant. There are usually several cases in the USA every year (7 is the average). There was one in California last year. But we have got much better at treating it. As far as I know, the last deaths in the USA were 2015. But with antibiotic resistant strains on the rise, there is a new global push for a vaccine.

There is a plague vaccine, but it is old tech. The new vaccine you evoke:

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-vaccine-for-plague-is-about-to-undergo-human-trials

That said, deaths from plague are nothing compared to Covid. It's a question of outbreak management.

[Stevemercer]

The Delta strain is similarly infectious and dangerous as the common cold. No one would think of locking down cities and economies to try and slow the spread of colds or yearly flus.

 

We have never reached herd immunity for the common cold and flu and never will. This is because here are new strains every year. Covid will be the same, but the strains will become less dangerous as the virus's characteristics are increasingly recognised by our immune systems 

 

The Spanish Flu (1918 - 1920) was more infectious and dangerous than Covid, but disappeared  after 2 years. This was because everyone had caught it and gotten better or died. The virus morphed into a strain that was not particularly dangerous and its genetics is still with us. Strangely, after 1920 there were a few remote places that has never been exposed to the virus and had no immunity. These places remained at severe risk and had to be quarantined.

 

We just have to live with Covid and get on with life.  Once 80% of the population is vaccinated lockdowns will be a waste of time. The most vulnerable will need to get a yearly booster. 

[cclub75]

The herd immunity was not only a "dream" but basically... a scam.

 

Even WHO said 7 months ago : "The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known." ????

 

Link : https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

 

A scam designed to force the "vaccines" onto the population with the idea : "get it, it's the condition to go back to normal".

 

Very early on, real scientists said : "coronaviruses mutate a lot, and recombine a lot, we will have vaccine evasion".

 

But no one listened to them.

 

Now, back to square one.

 

Vaccine or no vaccine, the virus will find its ways.

 

The real question is : are we ready to stop the drama, and the psychosis about "cases" (the famous "positive but asymptomatics cases") ?

 

Are we ready to acknowledge that to die at 80 years old is perfectly normal (from any cause) ?

 

Are we ready to acknowledge that obesity for instance is a real morbidity, and a big killer in the world, and that we should help those people, with prevention rather than to "lockdown" and close everything ?

 

This morning i went to Makro.

Impossible to buy a frying pan (Covid rules you understand, dark red province, terrible)... but the alley with...weighing scales was open. I could buy one.

 

This is the mindset we need to let go.

 

So are we ready or not ?

 

Or do we wish to continue destroying the society, and the people around the world ?

Edited August 12, 2021 by cclub75

[Fairynuff]

I have an opinion, but I think I’ll leave it to the experts on this forum.

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

It looks like Covid will be with us for a long time. If we are fortunate, in the near to medium term a combination of vaccination and/or infection will confer sufficient resistance so that illness becomes much less severe and hospitalizations and deaths decline significantly. If we are really lucky, science will deliver a vaccine that confers sterilizing immunity, preferably one that can be administered orally, or at least does not require expensive and complicated storage. Think polio vaccine. This would be the endgame for this virus.

 

Until we reach such level, all we have is preventative measures such as masking, hand washing and restrictions on certain activities and gatherings. To me, it does not stand to reason that we should abandon such measures and open up at this time. That will be appropriate a bit later on, after more widespread resistance to severe illness is attained. We just aren't there yet. 

 

It is extremely difficult to determine the optimal level of restrictions so as to save lives and reduce the strain on healthcare services while still keeping the economy running at an acceptable level. This calls for a nuanced approach and one that can change quickly depending upon circumstances. Simply opening everything or locking down everything in an on/off manner won't work other than in extreme situations where a real lockdown may be necessary to curb a severe outbreak. One hopes this would only need to be done in geographically-limited areas and for a very short time.

 

There have been many mis-steps on the part of both experts and politicians since the pandemic emerged, not to mention deliberate mis-information spread by other actors for whatever reason. We were told that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission by the WHO as late as mid-January 2020. We were told that masks won't help the general public, until were were told that they did. Some leaders said that wearing masks was a sign of weakness or a loss of personal freedom. Politicians of many stripes have used the pandemic to push their own agendas, often at the expense of the public, Charlatans and snake-oil salesmen have made their attempts to cash in. 

 

I suspect our experts and other leaders will get things wrong again in the future, but I'm hopeful that reason and science will prevail and we'll get past this low point. To do so, we somehow have to be able to distinguish signal from noise and focus on the strategies that will get us to higher ground. I think we should listen to institutions and experts that have proven records in their respective fields and also look for general consensus among them, even if they got things a bit wrong at the outset.

 

Sorry this post is so lengthy. I did not have time to write a shorter one. Stay safe.

[GreasyFingers]

6 minutes ago, Etaoin Shrdlu said:

It looks like Covid will be with us for a long time. If we are fortunate, in the near to medium term a combination of vaccination and/or infection will confer sufficient resistance so that illness becomes much less severe and hospitalizations and deaths decline significantly. If we are really lucky, science will deliver a vaccine that confers sterilizing immunity, preferably one that can be administered orally, or at least does not require expensive and complicated storage. Think polio vaccine. This would be the endgame for this virus.

 

Until we reach such level, all we have is preventative measures such as masking, hand washing and restrictions on certain activities and gatherings. To me, it does not stand to reason that we should abandon such measures and open up at this time. That will be appropriate a bit later on, after more widespread resistance to severe illness is attained. We just aren't there yet. 

 

It is extremely difficult to determine the optimal level of restrictions so as to save lives and reduce the strain on healthcare services while still keeping the economy running at an acceptable level. This calls for a nuanced approach and one that can change quickly depending upon circumstances. Simply opening everything or locking down everything in an on/off manner won't work other than in extreme situations where a real lockdown may be necessary to curb a severe outbreak. One hopes this would only need to be done in geographically-limited areas and for a very short time.

 

There have been many mis-steps on the part of both experts and politicians since the pandemic emerged, not to mention deliberate mis-information spread by other actors for whatever reason. We were told that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission by the WHO as late as mid-January 2020. We were told that masks won't help the general public, until were were told that they did. Some leaders said that wearing masks was a sign of weakness or a loss of personal freedom. Politicians of many stripes have used the pandemic to push their own agendas, often at the expense of the public, Charlatans and snake-oil salesmen have made their attempts to cash in. 

 

I suspect our experts and other leaders will get things wrong again in the future, but I'm hopeful that reason and science will prevail and we'll get past this low point. To do so, we somehow have to be able to distinguish signal from noise and focus on the strategies that will get us to higher ground. I think we should listen to institutions and experts that have proven records in their respective fields and also look for general consensus among them, even if they got things a bit wrong at the outset.

 

Sorry this post is so lengthy. I did not have time to write a shorter one. Stay safe.

Good to hear someone thinking about it and not pushing an agenda.

[ballpoint]

23 minutes ago, cclub75 said:

Are we ready to acknowledge that obesity for instance is a real morbidity, and a big killer in the world, and that we should help those people, with prevention rather than to "lockdown" and close everything ?

 

This morning i went to Makro.

Impossible to buy a frying pan...

There you go. By preventing the sale of frying pans they will cut down on obesity.

[DogNo1]

We are actually living with many viruses that are incurable and for which vaccines and treatments only mitigate the severity of the disease.  Herpes Simplex and Herpes Zoster, once contracted, stay with you for life.  For interesting discussions, see This Week in Virology on Youtube.   You may be surprised to find what a huge problem viruses are.