Thailand projects doubling of daily coronavirus infections next month

[Jiggo]

2 hours ago, Clarkey611 said:

I fear that the lockdown has absolutely nothing to do with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but it is intended to keep people off the streets and prevent them from demonstrating about the current situation, especially about a nut in charge of vaxccines.

Quite correct n my view, also to stop late night drinking on the beach etc..

[Deli]

On 8/13/2021 at 6:49 PM, anchadian said:

An impossible task and we all know it. 

 

Where will all the extra med staff come from (we only see an average of 200,000 doses administered on Sat and Sun), and again, are we going to see overcrowding like say at Bang Sue station, a super spreader?

 

The govt needs to administer 550,00 daily doses from today to year end to achieve their target of 100m doses.

 

Will never happen.

 

Not impossible but impossible in this country with these people in charge.

[MrJ2U]

They need to get the military to help in the hospitals and volunteer to pick up dead bodies.

 

Then go back to their barracks and pass around the virus to there leaders.

 

Then the government will see some pushback once military guys start dying around the bases.

[shocky2012]

I've spent 4200 bahts on KFC the last week to make sure I can receive my vaccine faster

[Mike k]

10 hours ago, ronster said:

Yes this is true , but the point I was making is as long as they keep getting positive tests they will carry on keeping things closed regardless if the person has zero symptoms or not and keep forcing people into quarantine which turns out is a nice little earner for hotels who are void of tourists .

Some hotels many are closed 

[Mike k]

1 hour ago, shocky2012 said:

I've spent 4200 bahts on KFC the last week to make sure I can receive my vaccine faster

I was at a big C yesterday and thought about some KFC but I am paying for someone to take it from the counter walk through a door and hand it to me 

[Mike k]

2 hours ago, MrJ2U said:

They need to get the military to help in the hospitals and volunteer to pick up dead bodies.

 

Then go back to their barracks and pass around the virus to there leaders.

 

Then the government will see some pushback once military guys start dying around the bases.

Most of them have probably received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine that was supposed to go to the health care workers 

[Mike k]

10 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Hold on a minute. The most popular excuse for the behavior and lack of enforcement of Covid policy here is incompetence, stupidity or how could they know?

 

At a certain point, those excuses are simply not valid, believable, or reasonable. How on earth could they not know, with the majority of cases happening in Thailand, being in Bangkok, that if you close all construction sites, and most small businesses, the people would not leave to spread out all over the country? How could you not know what? Justin Bieber and Brittany Spears would have known that. Bozo the clown would have known that. So, why did they not take precautions with so many lives? Only one answer comes to mind. And it is definitely not "they did not know Covid would spread".

Well pm du****s did say what happens happens 

[Anton9]

7 hours ago, digger70 said:

Like I said a couple weeks ago 50 000 a day was my prediction.  ???? I hope to be wrong.

Impossible to get 50000/day.

They are testing now 50000 people/day with 40% positivity rate.

If they start testing 200/300 k /day the number of positive would be already much higher than that. 

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, HandsomeTallFarang said:

Implying that a COVID infection = a death sentence, is completely low, and disingenuous.
 

A greater than 99% survival rate statistically... All you are doing is fanning the flames of panic and acting like the sky is falling, with this kind of nonsense. 

An elevation in infection numbers will result in more deaths, to deny that is low and misinformed.

The 'survival rate' you come up with I presume is for Thailand, there are varying figures depending on where one considers. Actually, globally, it is 89.6%, Thailand is 75% recovered, but I expect that includes many still sick or have not reported as recovered, deaths is actually 1%. Worst case, perhaps Peru, 9% mortality to infection. So I believe you are being disingenuous by presenting false numbers....most countries lie between 98-99%, fortunately improving as vaccination comes into play, and better hospital reaction to serious cases.

You may have your head in the sand, people dying is by far not the only problems this is causing.

[howbri]

On 8/13/2021 at 5:21 PM, Dmaxdan said:

The adjusted measures won't work either.

Vaccinate, vaccinate and vaccinate is the only way forward now.

 

And even then the daily recorded figures will continue to rise.

 

COVID-19 is here to stay. The daily infection numbers will never be zero again. Even after 70 % of the population has been vaccinated.

The number of deaths is and has always been the only real important figure.

The only way we can get back to some sort of normality is to get as many people immune as possible.

And that's the real challenge  because in Thailand corruption is and has always been the only true winner.

 

 

 

 

 

It's obvious "lockdowns" don't work so why are they still using them?  We are told vaccines effectiveness as low as 40% with the need for endless "boosters". Common sense would follow dr.'s advising that we open everything and rely on "herd immunity" which is the only effective way of ridding ourselves of virus. Protect the weak and elderly and let every one else develop immunity the way it's been done for hundreds of years. (without destroying the economy further).

[metisdead]

Thailand staring at 70,000 Covid cases a day unless lockdown extended

 

Daily infections could reach 70,000 unless strict lockdown measures are employed in late August, Dr Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman of the governments Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, warned on Friday.

 

Taweesilp cited the Ministry of Public Health’s estimate that daily infections in late August to early September could be around 60,000 to 70,000 patients per day after the current lockdown measures end. However, if the lockdown measures were extended to September, daily infections would be at around 45,000 patients per day, which would still be high.

 

Read more here:  https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004647

[DaveSamutP]

On 8/13/2021 at 7:49 PM, anchadian said:

An impossible task and we all know it. 

 

Where will all the extra med staff come from (we only see an average of 200,000 doses administered on Sat and Sun), and again, are we going to see overcrowding like say at Bang Sue station, a super spreader?

 

The govt needs to administer 550,00 daily doses from today to year end to achieve their target of 100m doses.

 

Will never happen.

 

Agree. My 'finger in the air' estimate is that the Thais won't hit their stride with Vaccinations until middle of next year when enough has been donated or has arrived and they have worked out the logistics. 

 

This is going to be a long stretch. 

[ronster]

12 hours ago, Mike k said:

Some hotels many are closed 

Depends if you are friends with the special people who say yes ! ????????

[Kwaibill]

On 8/13/2021 at 8:32 PM, Thaiophil said:

I guess the people weighing 99 kg will be ordering the family buckets at KFC.????

 

Surely not many Thais weigh 100kg

 

 

Seen a lot more really rotund Thais in

recent years.

Too much Mickey Ds, or too much rice?

For sure too much leisure, not so many working hard in the fields.

[kiwikeith]

On 8/13/2021 at 11:24 PM, internationalism said:

an earlier projection was 400-500 for the second part of September.

I would think, that those figures would be higher, as situation progresses in the wrong direction

Sending 129,000 infected people back to their provinces, as no beds in BK, that's a step in the right infection. 

[jacko45k]

22 hours ago, howbri said:

It's obvious "lockdowns" don't work so why are they still using them? 

It does not seem obvious to me.... you don't even define what you mean by 'work'. If you meant 'completely prevent infection', I would agree with you, but only because any lockdown cannot be perfect or 100%, or often even implemented early enough. If 'work' means to slow it down so that hospitals can cope and give time for vaccinations to take effect, of course lockdowns do that job. 

 

Simply saying something is 'obvious' is hardly a solid base.

 

By the way, herd immunity based on previous infection only, also does not work, many have contracted Covid multiple times. The leaders of countries isolate themselves when in contact with a positive case, despite having had Covid themselves, they do it for a reason.

[HandsomeTallFarang]

On 8/15/2021 at 5:33 AM, jacko45k said:

An elevation in infection numbers will result in more deaths, to deny that is low and misinformed.

The 'survival rate' you come up with I presume is for Thailand, there are varying figures depending on where one considers. Actually, globally, it is 89.6%, Thailand is 75% recovered, but I expect that includes many still sick or have not reported as recovered, deaths is actually 1%. Worst case, perhaps Peru, 9% mortality to infection. So I believe you are being disingenuous by presenting false numbers....most countries lie between 98-99%, fortunately improving as vaccination comes into play, and better hospital reaction to serious cases.

You may have your head in the sand, people dying is by far not the only problems this is causing.

Oh wow, forgive me, 98%, not 99%, because that’s a huge difference ????

[jacko45k]

6 minutes ago, HandsomeTallFarang said:

Oh wow, forgive me, 98%, not 99%, because that’s a huge difference ????

Yes, it represents an error of 100%

Edited August 16, 2021 by jacko45k

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, HandsomeTallFarang said:

Oh wow, forgive me, 98%, not 99%, because that’s a huge difference ????

 Forgive someone who does not look at the big picture, why when you also do not know What the percentage of those who were sick, hospitalized and who now have long covid.  Even children who have had covid are taking a long time to heal. I know my GFs 7 year old daughter is still fighting it after being released from the hospital.  Her chest xrays showed damage to her lungs and she is now using an inhaler. It is not just about deaths.....

[HandsomeTallFarang]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

 Forgive someone who does not look at the big picture, why when you also do not know What the percentage of those who were sick, hospitalized and who now have long covid.  Even children who have had covid are taking a long time to heal. I know my GFs 7 year old daughter is still fighting it after being released from the hospital.  Her chest xrays showed damage to her lungs and she is now using an inhaler. It is not just about deaths.....

My condolences, all I can say is, there is probably going be some major retribution for China, collectively from the world, after this is all said and done. I would be surprised if there wasn’t.

[internationalism]

5 hours ago, kiwikeith said:

Sending 129,000 infected people back to their provinces, as no beds in BK, that's a step in the right infection. 

if they were not send from bangkok to provinces to be taken care by local hospitals and later by their families in empty remote villages, than 129k other patients in bangkok would be denied medical help and left alone at overcrowded slums, without social distancing and on junk food

Edited August 16, 2021 by internationalism

[248900_1469958220]

So....everything open in October then? 

[248900_1469958220]

On 8/14/2021 at 5:27 AM, Tarteso said:

It’s not true. Last year the population wasn’t tested, so nobody knows how many people was been infected, immunized, asymptomatic or killed by Covid.

Very true and AGAIN as this study shows....many many more have had it...I would love to see randomised antibody testing but it wont happen. 

 

From the article: 

 

'Results from an Indonesian health survey indicate almost half the entire population of Jakarta — 4.7 million people from a population of 10.6 million — have antibodies against COVID-19'

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-12/covid-19-antibodies-jakarta-almost-half-of-population/100285384

[brucec64]

On 8/13/2021 at 7:04 PM, DLock said:

How do they define that the lockdown has been "20% effective", when numbers continue to rise?

 

What does that even mean?

The R factor in a pandemic determines ability of the virus to spread. R > 1 means that each infected person infects more than 1 person. The higher the R number, the higher the case increase. Lockdowns don't eliminate the virus, but they can reduce the R factor because of the reduction in contact between people. When they talk about a 20% reduction, you can see the impact on the case increase when R goes from 1.1 to 0.9. And a further 5% reduction would have an even greater impact on reducing the case growth.

 

[MarcIssan]

On 8/14/2021 at 2:44 PM, ronster said:

Yes this is true , but the point I was making is as long as they keep getting positive tests they will carry on keeping things closed regardless if the person has zero symptoms or not and keep forcing people into quarantine which turns out is a nice little earner for hotels who are void of tourists .

Sad for responsible people but a necessity for the others who despite the risks keep spreading the virus to friends and family.  Even asymptomatic people can infect others so besides a lock up how do you keep these in place until the transmission period had ended?

 

[digger70]

On 8/15/2021 at 1:55 AM, Anton9 said:

Impossible to get 50000/day.

They are testing now 50000 people/day with 40% positivity rate.

If they start testing 200/300 k /day the number of positive would be already much higher than that. 

Anything is possible in Thailand .