3 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

When I first read about the Thai government comparing their curve to India’s  last week I just knew what would happen…the order has been made “make our curve look like India’s”….and so shall it be.

 

My money says we will see 16K inflections tomorrow…although given how brazen these guys are I could see $15K…basically whatever it takes to make the Thai curve match the Indian curve.

Yeah there’s obviously collusion between the government, BP, India,  and who knows how many others involved to make these numbers seem real. 
 

Im sure someone else will come along to back up your conspiracy as we can’t have good news spoil anyone’s day can we. 

8 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

When I first read about the Thai government comparing their curve to India’s  last week I just knew what would happen…the order has been made “make our curve look like India’s”….and so shall it be.

 

My money says we will see 16K inflections tomorrow…although given how brazen these guys are I could see $15K…basically whatever it takes to make the Thai curve match the Indian curve.

just focus on the deaths.  it is harder to 'manipulate' that curve.  there are always more cases than get reported via the testing program.  in most countries, the death curves are very similar, not just india versus thailand.  there are a few charts that look different but the vast majority look roughly the same, straight up and straight down over a 2-3 month period. 

1 minute ago, buick said:

just focus on the deaths.  it is harder to 'manipulate' that curve.  there are always more cases than get reported via the testing program.  in most countries, the death curves are very similar, not just india versus thailand.  there are a few charts that look different but the vast majority look roughly the same, straight up and straight down over a 2-3 month period. 

Why would deaths be harder to manipulate? There are 70 provinces in Thailand…5 unreported deaths in each province would not raise any red flags but would be 350 deaths in total…I think number of deaths is actually easier to hide than any other number (apart from vaccines administered).

3 minutes ago, buick said:

just focus on the deaths.  it is harder to 'manipulate' that curve.  there are always more cases than get reported via the testing program.  in most countries, the death curves are very similar, not just india versus thailand.  there are a few charts that look different but the vast majority look roughly the same, straight up and straight down over a 2-3 month period. 

Plus they have a miraculously low death rate that defies logic in relation to what has happened everywhere else in the world.

6 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Yeah there’s obviously collusion between the government, BP, India,  and who knows how many others involved to make these numbers seem real. 
 

Im sure someone else will come along to back up your conspiracy as we can’t have good news spoil anyone’s day can we. 

No need to read the figures.Just focus on the headline photo.Old morgue pics things are coming good.

11 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Yeah there’s obviously collusion between the government, BP, India,  and who knows how many others involved to make these numbers seem real. 
 

Im sure someone else will come along to back up your conspiracy as we can’t have good news spoil anyone’s day can we. 

I find it a bit naïve for you to trust the government its numbers.  You seen secret memo's leaked about vaccines proving they lie and fudge numbers. What makes you think they don't do the same for these numbers. 

 

But I wish that these numbers are real because like everyone else i want out of this situation. I had my first shot and will get a second in 3 weeks so im not to worried about getting infected. However that does not make me trust the government.

 

I mean how often do they tell the truth and the fact that is comes at the same time the PM said it would makes it suspicious. Still its a small ray of hope. But if the death numbers don't go down in a week or so then its all a lie.

At last, it really does look we are over the peak.  But how long before there can be some (gentle!) relaxation of the partial lockdown - September?  At least start with re-opening parks and pools, hairdressers and allowing some 'distanced' dining-in for restaurants.

7 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

At last, it really does look we are over the peak.  But how long before there can be some (gentle!) relaxation of the partial lockdown - September?  At least start with re-opening parks and pools, hairdressers and allowing some 'distanced' dining-in for restaurants.

I would expect them to follow the data and if it continues to look positive then announce some relaxation next month. 
 

Then monitor again and further relax etc whilst the vaccine rollout continues at pace. 
 

A report on another running thread says of supplies keep coming they could have things back to ‘normalcy’ even sooner  See below:

 

“At this rate, the red zone provinces will reach herd immunity in November. If Covid-19 vaccine supplies keep up, if we can get more vaccines and expand our capacity we may even be able to resume normalcy by October,” 

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

Full recaps later but seeing improvement from both national and local numbers in terms of Covid-19. Recoveries outpacing new cases on both. First time in almost a month Chonburi is below a thousand new cases. #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/The_PattayaNews/status/1429614262519959555

 

Chonburi Public Health Office is reporting 953 new cases today and 7 more deaths. Most new cases are in Chonburi City (200), Bang Lamung/Pattaya (189), and Si Racha (307). There are now 19,554 patients in care #COVID19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1429595214318952448

 

Have to get their numbers down in order to meet the Good PM's October opening date for all of the country.  Less testing and fewer cases, especially with using the ATK test kits and forcing isolation onto the factory workers and companies by using the bubble and seal method.  Out of sight and out of mind is my way of looking at what is happening and ignoring the facts will not make the country any safer.  Lets now think about the bubble and seal method for students they are looking at, does one really think that that is a viable solution.  If they wish to take the risk then just open up to all vaccinated people, allow the restaurants to open, serve alcohol with meals, and allow people to gather in numbers such as families to celebrate the deceased and then for holidays.  Lets see....hmmm if they did that then we would see a repeat of this current wave we are riding.  Of course that is my view, and without a true stimulus package for the Thai people, well then the death of Thailand will be at hand unless they do something, either one way or another.  Stay safe folks, and lets hope the vaccinations pick up.

47 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Due to the fantastic ongoing vaccination efforts we are now rapidly heading towards 30% of the population receiving those first jab and at current rates predicted that 70% of the population could be double jabbed by beginning of January. 

 

https://covidvax.live/en/location/tha

 

I asked this question a few days ago and got a few bewildered reactions.  

 

I'll try to show the math again in a different way.  So far, Thailand has received 31 million doses.  They have given over 27 million shots, leaving less than 4 million shots left in inventory (31 million - 27 million = 4 million).  The claim is that 7.2 million more doses are coming shortly.  That makes about 11 million doses available to be given (4 million plus 7 million = 11 million) .  All the other vaccines are listed as coming in the 4th quarter, as I understand.  So, 11 million doses will be used up in 22 days (11 million / 500,000 per day= 22 days).  That's September 13.  

 

So, what happens then, when there are no vaccines left to give to people?  Unless there's another shipment coming in September, Thailand runs out.  Until at least the beginning of October.  So, at least an 18 day gap.  

 

One other point.  I think it's great that vaccinations are ramping up.  And it's great to know that when people are double-jabbed, their chance of death drops to very low levels, which makes things much better.  Lost in this, however, is the fact that with only 70% double vaccinated, Delta will still continue to spread rapidly, and there will be some who will contract the disease and be left with  "long Covid" which might affect them for life.  And the 30% unvaccinated are still at high risk.  So, even with the good news, there's still a long road to travel till things are really better.  I think that point in time is much further out than January.  

 

 

 

41 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

They shouldn't be included if you want to keep the data of consistent quality. Rapid antigen test kits are notoriously unreliable and need a follow-up PCR test to confirm.

 

Or at least if you're going to include them, they should be listed separately. But then I suppose you'd have to remove them if the PCR test comes back negative - so again you'd be having problems with data consistency, numbers going up and down etc.

 

Best sticking to one standard of measurement, if you ask me.

There is up to a 5% false positive ratio as stated by Thai health officials, however even less than that according to international guidelines, th. So they are very accurate. They are used as as official numbers in England and many other countries. You are more likely to have a false negative with an antigen test as they are generally less sensitive.

 

The specificity of antigen tests is generally as high as most NAATs, which means that false positive test results are unlikely when an antigen test is used according to the manufacturer’s instructions. 

 

In fact according to peer reviewed studies some antigen tests are accurate enough to replace RT-PCR

 

Diagnosing the covid-19 requires all tools available, this is an excellent tool that is now finally being used, of course the results should be included.

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

So when do we see the 7,000 postive antigen tests from 2 days ago. This is a very high number that must show in daily figures if included. So far they obviously have not been included.

My humble opinion - a puzzle solved:

 

I think there will be a gradual phasing out of PCR to be replaced by ATK - with a marked fall in the reported numbers (which are PCR based). Add to this the following:

 

Open borders (all the migrant workers coming in)

Leaky lock down - there is talk about relaxing this (which does less for stopping infections and more for ruining peoples lives)

 

Looks like a change in direction to "B*gger this for a game of soldiers, we have failed so let it rip, as it will pass (with many deaths)." They have little choice unless they want to further trash the economy until it spectacularly crashes. 

 

Yes keep pushing vaccination - but I fear this will be too late anyhow - a lot of innocent civilian lives will be lost (what is this called in the military - collateral damage - not murder by policy) 

12 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

I would expect them to follow the data and if it continues to look positive then announce some relaxation next month. 
 

Then monitor again and further relax etc whilst the vaccine rollout continues at pace. 
 

A report on another running thread says of supplies keep coming they could have things back to ‘normalcy’ even sooner  See below:

 

“At this rate, the red zone provinces will reach herd immunity in November. If Covid-19 vaccine supplies keep up, if we can get more vaccines and expand our capacity we may even be able to resume normalcy by October,” 

Those are some pretty big "ifs".   "If the supply keeps up, if we can get more vaccines"..... well, of course it will be great.  But what if they can't?  

Of course fake numbers... They want to show that the lockdown is working, the vaccination program is sufficient and they have everything under control to open the country in October... BUT you can lie and if you see the numbers as in Ratchaburi  and Ayuthaya for example rising steadily., It will take not a long time before the numbers will rise again. And indeed we should all count the so call Rapid test with the numbers, because they are being keep aside but are used to release the recovered.. It all seems to go well, but the reality is different 

21 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

I would expect them to follow the data and if it continues to look positive then announce some relaxation next month. 
 

Then monitor again and further relax etc whilst the vaccine rollout continues at pace. 
 

A report on another running thread says of supplies keep coming they could have things back to ‘normalcy’ even sooner  See below:

 

“At this rate, the red zone provinces will reach herd immunity in November. If Covid-19 vaccine supplies keep up, if we can get more vaccines and expand our capacity we may even be able to resume normalcy by October,” 

Love those quotes from an anonymous source....

 

“At this rate, the red zone provinces will reach herd immunity in November. If Covid-19 vaccine supplies keep up, if we can get more vaccines and expand our capacity we may even be able to resume normalcy by October,” said the public health official who asked for anonymity."

 

Normalcy in Oct for red zone provinces.....mmmmm optimistic or sheer reckless statements, considering that majority of vaccines used so far are Sinovac and for herd immunity to be reached with that would take far more than 70%

Edited August 23, 20215 yr by Bkk Brian

1 hour ago, Pravda said:

I don't believe it 

There are lies, damned lies, statistics - these are statistics showing PCR tests and not ATK tests. 

We all know Covid delta is ripping through Thailand.

But I am pretty sure these represent the PCR tests (not the infection level in Thailand)

1 hour ago, darksidedog said:

I want to believe this is the start of a downward trend, but I am highly skeptical that we are seeing the real truth. Time will tell.

I think this is a correct downward trend in the reported PCR tests which only mean there are less positive PCR results - not less Covid Delta in Thailand.

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Love those quotes from an anonymous source....

 

“At this rate, the red zone provinces will reach herd immunity in November. If Covid-19 vaccine supplies keep up, if we can get more vaccines and expand our capacity we may even be able to resume normalcy by October,” said the public health official who asked for anonymity."

 

Normalcy in Oct for red zone provinces.....mmmmm optimistic or sheer reckless statements, considering that majority of vaccines used so far are Sinovac and for herd immunity to be reached with that would take far more than 70%

Plenty of quotes from anonymous people posting on here supporting all sorts of conspiracy theories that people seem to believe. 

 

We can all choose to believe it or not. 
 

 

Edited August 23, 20215 yr by Kadilo

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

They shouldn't be included if you want to keep the data of consistent quality. Rapid antigen test kits are notoriously unreliable and need a follow-up PCR test to confirm.

 

Or at least if you're going to include them, they should be listed separately. But then I suppose you'd have to remove them if the PCR test comes back negative - so again you'd be having problems with data consistency, numbers going up and down etc.

 

Best sticking to one standard of measurement, if you ask me.

Yes stick to one data stream as it is easier to manipulate by "accident" by switching ATK (then go home say the doctors) with PCR (we have to admit you). So PCR cases fall - woopee aren't we wonderful!

Awesome, looks like we have peaked and now it's a question of how fast we slide down the other side. Hope we drop to 15k by next Mon so they relax the lockdown.

Edited August 23, 20215 yr by Why Me

3 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Plenty of quotes from anonymous people posting on here that people seem to believe. 

 

We can all choose to believe it or not. 

Yes you can even when it defies logic, I prefer science.

well the Thai stock market seems to believe that things are getting better, market is pretty strong today (plus 1%) with the banks notably strong, Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn both up 5%   

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

I believe it's "due to the gloriously fantastic vaccination efforts, we are now moving at twice the speed light towards 300% of population....."

 

When one is auditioning for a spot on the North Korean Govt Media Team, no hyperbole is too much.

I am going to report Thailand to Einstein (I know he is dead but I will try necromancy) - tell him  that Thailand can travel faster than light. Naughty them. 

Just now, wordchild said:

well the Thai stock market seems to believe that things are getting better, market is pretty strong today (plus 1%) with the banks notably strong, Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn both up 5%   

They must all be in on it as well ????

It seems to be dropping in all of Asia, it did in India, so I am hopeful that this is indeed falling.  This is still weekend numbers but given another week we can hopefully say this is flatlined, or a real expert outside of the forum can call that.  (no expert here)

1 hour ago, buick said:

deaths is the only reliable number to use when trying to figure out if things are getting better.  still getting some higher than average daily death numbers but the peak could be forming right now.  we need to stay out of the 300 range and get back below 200 in the next week or two.  that'll show a peak on the charts.

 

unfortunately, there will likely be another surge but hopefully the death numbers in that one will be mitigated by the uptake in vaccinations.

Not al deaths will be recorded - imagine staying at home after a ATK test - a death, a quick funeral - no reporting this as a covid death. No process to report it. Possibly why Thailand has such a low death rate per infection. 

 

This is not hiding deaths (not a government conspiracy) just how it is.

3 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

It seems to be dropping in all of Asia, it did in India, so I am hopeful that this is indeed falling.  This is still weekend numbers but given another week we can hopefully say this is flatlined, or a real expert outside of the forum can call that.  (no expert here)

Oh there are, there are anonymous experts that predict herd immunity in Oct. The rest of your post I do agree.

Edited August 23, 20215 yr by Bkk Brian

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Oh there are, there are anonymous experts that predict herd immunity in Oct.

 Thailand will not be open in October.  If it is, I will eat my hat on tic tok (or whatever these kids are on these days) and post it for you all to see.  

Thailand Wants Migrant Workers to Return, But Will They Want To Come Back?

 

Caged like animals' treated like lepers. Migrants wrongly have been blamed for Covid-19's spread.

 

The question is will migrants want to return given how poorly they've been treated during this years outbreak. Workers have been held behind barbed wire in their crowded barracks, sealed inside workplaces, deprived of food, necessities and even coronavirus tests. 

 

https://bangkokherald.com/featured/thailand-wants-migrant-workers-to-return-but-will-they-want-to-come-back/

8 minutes ago, Scrotobike said:

Not al deaths will be recorded - imagine staying at home after a ATK test - a death, a quick funeral - no reporting this as a covid death. No process to report it. Possibly why Thailand has such a low death rate per infection. 

 

This is not hiding deaths (not a government conspiracy) just how it is.

Not sure the monks would agree with you!