China could be an economic time bomb sitting on Thailand’s doorstep as Evergrande collapse nears

[Atlantis]

TIMBERRR......

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59573985
 

Also on Wednesday...

...trading in shares of embattled property developer Kaisa was suspended in Hong Kong. In an announcement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Kaisa did not give a reason for the halt in trading. However, it came after reports that Kaisa was unlikely to be able to meet a $400m offshore debt deadline on Tuesday.
 

Kaisa is China's biggest holder of offshore debt among developers after Evergrande. Failure to make the payment could push it into technical default, triggering cross defaults on its offshore bonds totalling nearly $12bn.

 

[seedy]

When the bubble breaks, expect many companies to fall with them.

Manufacturers of every conceivable thing used world wide.

As always - when people get hungry, things change.

[Virt]

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/evergrande-defaults-for-first-time-as-china-debt-strains-spread

 

I wonder how bad news this is.

[seedy]

6 hours ago, Virt said:

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/evergrande-defaults-for-first-time-as-china-debt-strains-spread

 

I wonder how bad news this is.

I wonder if the Gov't will step in with a bailout - as has been done repeatedly in 'Western' countries.

Using the public purse to redeem rich people - who got rich by doing this over and over.

[sscc]

On 12/8/2021 at 7:32 PM, seedy said:

When the bubble breaks, expect many companies to fall with them.

Manufacturers of every conceivable thing used world wide.

As always - when people get hungry, things change.

You mentioned hunger.

 

In PRC Starvation and hunger death in MASSES happened not that long ago, around Year 1960.

Then came total disarray in PRC around Year 1970.

By mid /late 1980 PRC was dirt, dirt poor.  

And now Life is what they are 40 years later in PRC.   This had been all history.

 

All unreal, fluke, impossible to you ? 

 

 

So much news about PRC in media.    Whatever avoided to report, lightly reported,  briefly reported, or delay reported about PRC  in WESTERN world media and/or most English-language media,  PRC would be pleased as those things or items are achievement.   

 

 While Western world media and/or most English-language media are very much focused on PRC wrongdoings,  potential issue, long term trouble...............

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sscc]

1 hour ago, seedy said:

I wonder if the Gov't will step in with a bailout - as has been done repeatedly in 'Western' countries.

Using the public purse to redeem rich people - who got rich by doing this over and over.

 

Over the past months,   CCP had set a policy explicitly  to decrease INEQUITY in wealth,  actually doing it openly and diligently in PRC and subsequently helping elsewhere to do the same. 

 

While in USA,   INEQUALITY in wealth increases year by year. 

 

BTW  CCP had intensely focused on alleviating and helping the poor and helpless for over 2 decades and doing more on Precision alleviation for the poor in the past few years.  

 

So What is precision alleviation ?   The hilltribes are continuing to struggles generation after generation  (  Same for Laos, Thailand ) ,  so the CCP government with financial backing of the Corp to move them out of the hill top and give them new housing and better life in the town.  

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, seedy said:

I wonder if the Gov't will step in with a bailout - as has been done repeatedly in 'Western' countries.

Using the public purse to redeem rich people - who got rich by doing this over and over.

Highly unlikely. The government policy is curb the real estate sector and reduce risk and make housing more affordable. Bailing out the offenders will only send the wrong message. 

 

[Bohemianfish]

2 hours ago, seedy said:

I wonder if the Gov't will step in with a bailout - as has been done repeatedly in 'Western' countries.

Using the public purse to redeem rich people - who got rich by doing this over and over.

Too big to fail.

 

If it does fail, it will be sudden. Until then, we won't know. Black Swan event.

 

The government won't have any choice but to bail it out, though. 

[Bohemianfish]

30 minutes ago, sscc said:

You mentioned hunger.

 

In PRC Starvation and hunger death in MASSES happened not that long ago, around Year 1960.

Then came total disarray in PRC around Year 1970.

By mid /late 1980 PRC was dirt, dirt poor.  

And now Life is what they are 40 years later in PRC.   This had been all history.

 

All unreal, fluke, impossible to you ? 

 

 

So much news about PRC in media.    Whatever avoided to report, lightly reported,  briefly reported, or delay reported about PRC  in WESTERN world media and/or most English-language media,  PRC would be pleased as those things or items are achievement.   

 

 While Western world media and/or most English-language media are very much focused on PRC wrongdoings,  potential issue, long term trouble...............

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the spotlight is on the problem, and the problem is big enough, the problem will go away. The government will do whatever it takes.

[placeholder]

37 minutes ago, sscc said:

So What is precision alleviation ?   The hilltribes are continuing to struggles generation after generation  (  Same for Laos, Thailand ) ,  so the CCP government with financial backing of the Corp to move them out of the hill top and give them new housing and better life in the town.  

That's one way to characterize it. Here's another:

"No One Has the Liberty to Refuse"

Tibetan Herders Forcibly Relocated in Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, and the Tibet Autonomous Region

https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/06/10/no-one-has-liberty-refuse/tibetan-herders-forcibly-relocated-gansu-qinghai-sichuan

 

China Fences In Its Nomads, and an Ancient Life Withers

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/world/asia/china-fences-in-its-nomads-and-an-ancient-life-withers.html

[sscc]

15 minutes ago, placeholder said:

That's one way to characterize it. Here's another:

"No One Has the Liberty to Refuse"

Tibetan Herders Forcibly Relocated in Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, and the Tibet Autonomous Region

https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/06/10/no-one-has-liberty-refuse/tibetan-herders-forcibly-relocated-gansu-qinghai-sichuan

 

China Fences In Its Nomads, and an Ancient Life Withers

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/world/asia/china-fences-in-its-nomads-and-an-ancient-life-withers.html

 

 

 

 

As in Singapore former Prime Minister  the late Lee Kuan Yew method to set DEATH penalty for Drugs in Singapore,  Eastern-Asian belief is to sternly steer people clear of trouble. 

Or the Western belief Doing Drugs is liberty and own choice and human rights are above all else. 

 

Enough about New York Times and Human Right Watch media you have quoted the link. 

You think they know and understand more about Eastern-Asians than Asians  ? 

 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, sscc said:

 

 

 

 

As in Singapore former Prime Minister  the late Lee Kuan Yew method to set DEATH penalty for Drugs in Singapore,  Eastern-Asian belief is to sternly steer people clear of trouble. 

Or the Western belief Doing Drugs is liberty and own choice and human rights are above all else. 

 

Enough about New York Times and Human Right Watch media you have quoted the link. 

You think they know and understand more about Eastern-Asians than Asians  ? 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, if you're going to make it a more local matter, who do you think understands more about Tibetans? Ethnic Han people or ethnic Tibetans?

 

[Henryford]

Let's hope they crash and burn.

[sallecc]

15 minutes ago, sscc said:

 

 

 

 

As in Singapore former Prime Minister  the late Lee Kuan Yew method to set DEATH penalty for Drugs in Singapore,  Eastern-Asian belief is to sternly steer people clear of trouble. 

Or the Western belief Doing Drugs is liberty and own choice and human rights are above all else. 

 

Enough about New York Times and Human Right Watch media you have quoted the link. 

You think they know and understand more about Eastern-Asians than Asians  ? 

 

 

 

 

 

Seriously comparing Singapore to China? A place where people are disappearing after speaking up and never seen again, a place with CCP concentration camps, now in 21st century...

 

(never read NYT & HRC, just lived in CN, HK & SG for 20 years)

[sscc]

1 hour ago, Bohemianfish said:

Too big to fail.

 

If it does fail, it will be sudden. Until then, we won't know. Black Swan event.

 

The government won't have any choice but to bail it out, though. 

About China Evangrande and other China Real Estate Property firms trouble,  I found one intellect talk seems to make some sense.   

 

Tentatively it means  Evangrande is to fail and collapse and CCP is not to bail out 

Evangrande bond holders and other investors are to lose out.    Of course Evangrande founder Hui is to lose out too.     What CCP may do is to assist in completion of Evangrande on-going projects,  so the buyers who made initial down payment, partial payment etc  will eventually get the living flats.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Eric Loh]

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, if you're going to make it a more local matter, who do you think understands more about Tibetans? Ethnic Han people or ethnic Tibetans?

 

Tibetan people are genetically most closely related to Han Chinese and Bhutanese. 

 

[placeholder]

19 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Tibetan people are genetically most closely related to Han Chinese and Bhutanese. 

 

So now you're proposing racial theories to explain how people think and what their values are? From where have we heard that kind of thinking before?

For example, there are lots of Chinese Americans, for example? Are you claiming that their values tend to coincide with the values of the CCP rather than those of other Americans? Was Communism in the genes of the Chinese but somehow never managed to express itself until the 20th century?

[placeholder]

20 minutes ago, sscc said:

About China Evangrande and other China Real Estate Property firms trouble,  I found one intellect talk seems to make some sense.   

 

Tentatively it means  Evangrande is to fail and collapse and CCP is not to bail out 

Evangrande bond holders and other investors are to lose out.    Of course Evangrande founder Hui is to lose out too.     What CCP may do is to assist in completion of Evangrande on-going projects,  so the buyers who made initial down payment, partial payment etc  will eventually get the living flats.  

If China were serious about putting the end to the property bubble once and for all, why has it lowered lending standards, and reduced the capital reserve requirements for banks?

China Shifts Toward Easing as Property Downturn Hits Growth

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-06/china-cuts-reserve-requirement-ratio-again-as-economy-slows

 

The fact is that China is caught in a trap. On the one hand, an unhealthy proportion of its GDP comes from housing construction. So if it relaxes standards, then the bubble gets to live a while longer.. If it maintains strict standards. then the bubble pops in a big way. China seems to have opted for delaying the implosion. 

[placnx]

2 hours ago, sscc said:

 

Over the past months,   CCP had set a policy explicitly  to decrease INEQUITY in wealth,  actually doing it openly and diligently in PRC and subsequently helping elsewhere to do the same. 

 

While in USA,   INEQUALITY in wealth increases year by year. 

 

BTW  CCP had intensely focused on alleviating and helping the poor and helpless for over 2 decades and doing more on Precision alleviation for the poor in the past few years.  

 

So What is precision alleviation ?   The hilltribes are continuing to struggles generation after generation  (  Same for Laos, Thailand ) ,  so the CCP government with financial backing of the Corp to move them out of the hill top and give them new housing and better life in the town.  

Actually China is more unequal than the US, but Xi Jin Ping is working to erase the new wealth of people who might use their wealth to compete with him. Jack Ma is the most well-known example. As Xi is in this process, he may end up spoiling China's chance to become No 1.

 

As for minorities, the new program is for them to forget their langiage and culture and be assimilated to the great Han Nation.

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Highly unlikely. The government policy is curb the real estate sector and reduce risk and make housing more affordable. Bailing out the offenders will only send the wrong message. 

 

The plan seems to be to salvage the Evergrande building projects in various ways, possibly using other realestste companies organized by local or provincial governments with the support of People's Bank of China (central bank). No mention so far of whether there will be anything left for Evergrande shareholders. There is some softening of the Three Red Lines since whoever does the completion of construction will need money to do it.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

That's one way to characterize it. Here's another:

"No One Has the Liberty to Refuse"

Tibetan Herders Forcibly Relocated in Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, and the Tibet Autonomous Region

https://www.hrw.org/report/2007/06/10/no-one-has-liberty-refuse/tibetan-herders-forcibly-relocated-gansu-qinghai-sichuan

 

China Fences In Its Nomads, and an Ancient Life Withers

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/world/asia/china-fences-in-its-nomads-and-an-ancient-life-withers.html

In Tibet the wealthiest people were the nomads. I believe that preservation of grasslands was just an excuse to bring these people under control, part of the program to assimilate ethnic minorities. Out of sight of main roads, deforestation is going on. So environment is hardly a consideration in government thinking.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, sallecc said:

Seriously comparing Singapore to China? A place where people are disappearing after speaking up and never seen again, a place with CCP concentration camps, now in 21st century...

 

(never read NYT & HRC, just lived in CN, HK & SG for 20 years)

There was a great report on BBC this morning with footage showing the deportation of Uighurs in a train station going to forced labor. It was in conjunction with a report of the London mock trial of Xi Jin Ping et al for crimes against humanity and genocide.

[DonniePeverley]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Highly unlikely. The government policy is curb the real estate sector and reduce risk and make housing more affordable. Bailing out the offenders will only send the wrong message. 

 

 Nonsense. Nothing on this scale will be allowed to fail. Who do you think has their hands in the pie too ?

 

They will get a bail out eventually. Hence why no one is really panicking. 

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Tibetan people are genetically most closely related to Han Chinese and Bhutanese. 

 

It's true that linguistically they belong to the Sino-Tibetan language group, as opposed to Indo-European. These are big groups of languages. It's hard enough for Mandarin and Cantonese speakers to understand each other, much less for either to understand Tibetan. Bhutan and Tibet are culturally the same, just with local differences. Chinese and Tibetans are not at all similar. With the big movement of Han into Tibet, it will not be long until genetic differences vanish.

[placnx]

57 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If China were serious about putting the end to the property bubble once and for all, why has it lowered lending standards, and reduced the capital reserve requirements for banks?

China Shifts Toward Easing as Property Downturn Hits Growth

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-06/china-cuts-reserve-requirement-ratio-again-as-economy-slows

 

The fact is that China is caught in a trap. On the one hand, an unhealthy proportion of its GDP comes from housing construction. So if it relaxes standards, then the bubble gets to live a while longer.. If it maintains strict standards. then the bubble pops in a big way. China seems to have opted for delaying the implosion. 

It's a bit late for the Chinese government to be creating adequate alternatives to investing in real property. Suddenly a lot of foreign investment companies are getting permission to manage money & funds in China.

 

The easing you mention is a general move to avoid a slowdown, which was largely brought about by Covid and the overkill on going after operators like Evergrande.

[ThailandRyan]

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3159291/evergrande-chairman-hui-ka-yan-forced-sell-pledged-shares

 

Sounds like a default is in play.

Hui Ka-yan, the chairman of China Evergrande Group, has been forced to sell shares in the debt-ridden developer to fulfil an obligation.

Hui, 63, saw his stake in Evergrande drop to 59.78 per cent from 61.88 per cent following the share sales between December 6 and 9, which was undertaken to enforce a “security interest”, according to a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The disclosure came a day after the developer was officially labelled a defaulter for the first time.

[placnx]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3159291/evergrande-chairman-hui-ka-yan-forced-sell-pledged-shares

 

Sounds like a default is in play.

Hui Ka-yan, the chairman of China Evergrande Group, has been forced to sell shares in the debt-ridden developer to fulfil an obligation.

Hui, 63, saw his stake in Evergrande drop to 59.78 per cent from 61.88 per cent following the share sales between December 6 and 9, which was undertaken to enforce a “security interest”, according to a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The disclosure came a day after the developer was officially labelled a defaulter for the first time.

Fitch ratings declared Evergrande in default on Thursday, a so-called "restricted default" because it has not gone into bankruptcy or a liquidation process. This default pertains to international bonds of which Evergrande has about $20bn outstanding.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-evergrande-heads-toward-default-as-it-misses-payment-deadline-11638879732

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-developer-kaisa-defaults-fitch-says-as-industrys-debt-challenges-mount-11639046650

China is opening possibilities for some of the stronger developers to get finance for construction, thus providing a loophole to the "3 red lines".

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-reopens-a-funding-spigot-for-property-developers-11639045808