ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[KhunLA]

15 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

 

Both posts seem to indicate the old  adage  early adopters pay the price  

That's with any product, especially electronics, and easy to see the past couple decades how so much has gotten better, along with much cheaper.

 

For myself, upgraded enough from original, along with too old wait, and uncertain how long the govt incentive would hang around.   They were extended, and nothing new coming to our EV, except larger battery, which we don't need, or willing to pay for, as 949k was a stretch as it was, for transport.

 

Even gets a price drop, a few times the past year.   But if we kept our ICEV longer, before selling, maybe another 10-15% depreciations (40-60k) and missed out on govt incentive, though extended.   Plus, a year of petrol savings (47.8K),   So pretty much a wash with price reduction of 80k on the ZS, when in affect, vs 80-100k (depreciation & petrol cost) over that year or so, till price dropped.

 

BYDs & GWM just arrived, and not network.  Which changed fast.  Do like that Atto 3, though at the time, a couple 100k more than ZS.  Now about the same, when ZS not discounted.

[Pib]

21 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

Because IMHO Toyota are behind a lot of the Anti-EV propaganda, EV’s catch fire, EV’s have range anxiety, EV’s can’t get wet etc etc

 

Their Chairman (CEO until he was fired) is on an anti-EV crusade.

 

They are trying to obfuscate all the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially, eg people like them, they like the acceleration, they like the silence, they like charging at home etc.

 

I don’t think you can underestimate the threat legacy automakers face.

 

Yeap.....agree...there is no doubt a lot of funding flowing to certain people/media companies to fill media with anti-EV news, articles, video's, etc.   No doubt fossil fuel companies, iCEV manufacturers (like Toyota), etc., are providing some funding to those who will paint EV's in a bad light. Usually nothing illegal about it....but it's extremely slanted information.

 

It's like the Youtube Channel named "ChargeDrive" that produces anti-EV videos...and every week or so they will upload the same video again with a slightly different title along with the video being a few seconds longer or shorter to make it appear like it's a new video, late braking news, etc........worm on the hook, click bait, type approach.   

 

And there are also those individuals who simply hate EVs and for now have decided to make it their life calling to produce Youtube videos that only represent their point of view which generates Youtube income for them.   Or they really don't hate EVs but know a large portion of the population do not like EVs....ICEV till Death so to speak....and such Youtubers then focus all their videos towards a select portion of the population.   Nothing illegal about it but it's usually slanted, incomplete, taken out of context info.

 

ChargeDrive.  Partial snapshot from their Youtube Channel

https://www.youtube.com/@Charge-Drive/videos

 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

Is there a shortage of pro EV videos on YouTube? 

 

 

[KhunLA]

34 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Is there a shortage of pro EV videos on YouTube? 

Happy never sells, just doom & gloom.

 

Pro ... would be most of the reviews.  Taken with a huge grain of salt of course.   Though the non legacy auto makers don't seem to have a problem with negatives being reviewed, and continue to supply vehicles to YT'er that give mixed reviews.

 

Then more than a few folks with 1 - 3 -5 year updates, and quite happy, pointing out some negative.  But no 'dead' batteries costing 1000's of $$$ to replace.

 

Sure the Nissan Leaf hasn't faired well in reviews, but one of the very early entries, with horrible flaws.    That one making the rounds, and Nissan did give them a 33k voucher if buying a new one.  Hard to cry about that.   I would have bought it, then sold it.   Then bought something cheaper & better 

 

They're out there, pro vids, just need better search terms.  Usually by 'owners', and what I based my decision on.

 

Sadly for ICEVs here, I went with reputation & price, and got what I paid for.   Though MG ZS didn't show up till 2017/18, I think.  Only the MG3 and fell under the 'get what you pay for' stance.

 

Toyota Vios & Mazda 2 served us well, but reality, were POSs.  and if in USA, no way, and better model, same or different brand would have been better choice.  Simply not available here/TH.

 

Thai excise tax on 'made in TH' really jacks the price up 100k too much.  How the same versions cars are sold at about the same price in the USA, with all the added cost of production in the USA is amazing.  Mind boggling pricing.  

 

Though wouldn't have bought neither over there, or new, as 2nd hand market isn't crazy like here or was.  Bit of gap now, but before, no sense in buying used here, as not much off the new price.

[JBChiangRai]

4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Does China include two and three wheeled EVs in the numbers? 

 

No it's passenger & commercial vehicles only.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Worth a read from FT. 

Staggering numbers.

China ended an 11-year consumer subsidy scheme for EV purchases in 2022. But local governments still offer subsidies and tax rebates and the central government has prolonged a tax reduction on EV purchases to 2027. CSIS, the US think-tank, has put Beijing’s cumulative state spending on the EV sector at more than $125bn between 2009 to 2021.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a5101a0d-a1bf-4591-82f1-4fd9a5fadbec?segmentid=dcee0941-6e02-a9de-5643-b340f3ef2e3a

[KhunLA]

Pay wall ... oh well 

[Pib]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Worth a read from FT. 

Staggering numbers.

China ended an 11-year consumer subsidy scheme for EV purchases in 2022. But local governments still offer subsidies and tax rebates and the central government has prolonged a tax reduction on EV purchases to 2027. CSIS, the US think-tank, has put Beijing’s cumulative state spending on the EV sector at more than $125bn between 2009 to 2021.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a5101a0d-a1bf-4591-82f1-4fd9a5fadbec?segmentid=dcee0941-6e02-a9de-5643-b340f3ef2e3a

 

Can't review due to pay wall block.

 

But below article is probably talking the same thing....but instead of $125B USD it reports a far lower amount of $28B over a 13 year period...that's a little over $2B per year which considering the size of China population isn't really that much (IMO).

 

https://chinadialogue.net/en/business/life-after-subsidies-for-chinas-evs/#:~:text=More than 200 billion yuan,support and subsidies have declined.

Bai Yu

November 30, 2023

Quote

 

The electric vehicle (EV) sector in China, as elsewhere, has benefitted from government support in its early phase as an up-and-coming green industry. The government has been subsidising producers of EVs for public transport, taxis and the consumer market since 2009. EV consumers in China, moreover, have received purchase subsidies from the government for a number of years.

More than 200 billion yuan (US$28 billion) was spent on EV subsidies and tax breaks in China over the 2009-2022 period. In 2022, the country sold more than 6 million EVs, accounting for half of all sales globally.

As the market has matured, government support and subsidies have declined. Purchase subsidies for EV consumers were phased out at the end of 2022. And, according to information gleaned by China Dialogue from an internal industry meeting, it is likely that other subsidies for EV producers, such as tax breaks, will also be phased out. 

 

 

[KhunLA]

2 hours ago, Pib said:

 

Can't review due to pay wall block.

 

But below article is probably talking the same thing....but instead of $125B USD it reports a far lower amount of $28B over a 13 year period...that's a little over $2B per year which considering the size of China population isn't really that much (IMO).

 

https://chinadialogue.net/en/business/life-after-subsidies-for-chinas-evs/#:~:text=More than 200 billion yuan,support and subsidies have declined.

Bai Yu

November 30, 2023

 

$28B over 13 years ... chump change 

[vinny41]

The $28B covers 2009-2022 

In June 2023 they announced a  further B72.3B tax breaks for periods

China unveiled on Wednesday a 520 billion yuan ($72.3 billion) package of tax breaks over four years for electric vehicles (EVs) and other green cars, its biggest yet for the industry as it seeks to boost slower auto sales growth.

 

China to exempt NEV purchase tax in 2024-2025

Purchase tax exemption will be halved in 2026-2027

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-announces-extension-purchase-tax-break-nevs-until-2027-2023-06-21/#:~:text=BEIJING%2FSHANGHAI%2C June 21 (,boost slower auto sales growth.

[BenStark]

3 hours ago, Pib said:

Can't review due to pay wall block.

 

Lame excuse, no paywall

 

To read this article for free
Register now

[vinny41]

By CSIS’s estimates, total government funding for the NEV sector was RMB 148.2 billion in 2018 ($7.2 billion) and RMB 134.9 billion ($20.1 billion) in 2019, meaning total outlays over the past decade of RMB 676 billion ($100.9 billion).1

https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-nev-war-implications-chinas-advances-electric-vehicles

Figure 6 gives total breakdown from 2009 to 2019

 

$100.9 billion and $72.3B Combined figure of $173.2B slightly more than chump change

[Pib]

6 minutes ago, BenStark said:

 

Lame excuse, no paywall

 

To read this article for free
Register now

Free registering requires collection of your email address to read "free" articles...to read articles that are not free it then requires payment/subscription.  Paywall.

 

Not going to give out my email address just to read an article from a site that someone references in a post....and a site I have no intention/desire to register with.

 

 

[KhunLA]

24 minutes ago, BenStark said:

 

Lame excuse, no paywall

 

To read this article for free
Register now

Looks like a pay wall to me.   And NO ... I don't give my info, just to read news.  I get very little spam, and want to keep it that way.

 

[Lacessit]

19 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Happy never sells, just doom & gloom.

 

 

Doom and gloom would not exist if there were no shortcomings in EV's.

ICE's have flaws too, and there are many brands which have sunk under the weight of justified criticism.

It is amusing EV owners hark back to Adam Weishaupt, it's a new form of elitism.

[KhunLA]

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Doom and gloom would not exist if there were no shortcomings in EV's.

ICE's have flaws too, and there are many brands which have sunk under the weight of justified criticism.

It is amusing EV owners hark back to Adam Weishaupt, it's a new form of elitism.

No product is perfect, or they wouldn't make money maintaining them.   If you watched 'Who killed the electric car?' (highly recommend), it's pointed out, just how much auto makers & fossil fuel make on the imperfections of ICEVs that keeps the lobbyist working 24/7 delaying any new modes of transport.

 

The constant maintenance (cost/profit) of just the basics oil changes & tune-ups is billion $$$ business, as much or much more, than earned with the sale of said ICEVs.

 

How they shifted the simple advertisement for oil changes, shows it's all about selling oil.   Use to be 'buy our oil, it last longer', now it's 'change every 10k kms to protect the engine'.   What a scam.

 

When I changed the oil decades past, it was 'black'.   Now, I have a hard time reading the dip stick, it's so clean, and they want me to change it at the dealer, or it voids to warranty 

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

No product is perfect, or they wouldn't make money maintaining them.   If you watched 'Who killed the electric car?' (highly recommend), it's pointed out, just how much auto makers & fossil fuel make on the imperfections of ICEVs that keeps the lobbyist working 24/7 delaying any new modes of transport.

 

The constant maintenance (cost/profit) of just the basics oil changes & tune-ups is billion $$$ business, as much or much more, than earned with the sale of said ICEVs.

 

How they shifted the simple advertisement for oil changes, shows it's all about selling oil.   Use to be 'buy our oil, it last longer', now it's 'change every 10k kms to protect the engine'.   What a scam.

 

When I changed the oil decades past, it was 'black'.   Now, I have a hard time reading the dip stick, it's so clean, and they want me to change it at the dealer, or it voids to warranty 

 

How do automobile manufactures make money on maintenance?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KhunLA]

17 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

How do automobile manufactures make money on maintenance?

 

Profit on labor to replace your oil, spark plugs, filters, fluids, on just regular maintenance to keep it running.   That's without labor to replace worn out parts, components that don't last, batteries, starter, generator/alternator.

 

I take the EV in @ 10k kms, they plug in, change a filter, and tell us all is good.   Same @ 20k .... and onward, for almost life of the car.

 

ICEV ... @ 10K oil change, profit, @ 20k, another, profit, and every 10k kms onward.  Then @ 40 or 50k, tune up (plugs +)_, profit & so on.  That's without something malfunctioning.

 

Timing belt every 70-90k if having.   Exhaust system will fail eventually, and parts, muffler, cat converter, pipe will rust, and all needing replacement with added parts & labor profit.

 

Yea, they hate the idea of EVs being almost maintenance free in comparison.  Big money out the window.

 

Aside from the weekly petrol stop to top up the tank, with a chemical fuel, that in itself, deteriorates the components when burned.  Produces moisture within the exhaust that will rust out that system.  Pure genius actually.  Make a product that self destructs when used. 

 

Big savings for us 

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

 

Profit on labor to replace your oil, spark plugs, filters, fluids, on just regular maintenance to keep it running.   That's without labor to replace worn out parts, components that don't last, batteries, starter, generator/alternator.

 

Typically, automobile manufacturers do not make oil, spark plugs, filters, batteries, starters or alternators, and they do not make any money from the labor to change them. Where did you hear they did?  

 

It's nice that EV's come with free lifetime parts and service, I did not know that. I remember the last Isuzu I bought had free service during the warranty. 

 

 

 

 

[KhunLA]

13 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

Typically, automobile manufacturers do not make oil, spark plugs, filters, batteries, starters or alternators, and they do not make any money from the labor to change them. Where did you hear they did?  

 

It's nice that EV's come with free lifetime parts and service, I did not know that. I remember the last Isuzu I bought had free service during the warranty. 

Seriously ... we'll definitely have to agree to disagree on that.

 

They make money on both, sale of the part, and labor to install it, above and beyond their actual cost.

 

[Lacessit]

49 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

No product is perfect, or they wouldn't make money maintaining them.   If you watched 'Who killed the electric car?' (highly recommend), it's pointed out, just how much auto makers & fossil fuel make on the imperfections of ICEVs that keeps the lobbyist working 24/7 delaying any new modes of transport.

 

The constant maintenance (cost/profit) of just the basics oil changes & tune-ups is billion $$$ business, as much or much more, than earned with the sale of said ICEVs.

 

How they shifted the simple advertisement for oil changes, shows it's all about selling oil.   Use to be 'buy our oil, it last longer', now it's 'change every 10k kms to protect the engine'.   What a scam.

 

When I changed the oil decades past, it was 'black'.   Now, I have a hard time reading the dip stick, it's so clean, and they want me to change it at the dealer, or it voids to warranty 

There's a simple rule of thumb I use with oil changes. I service my vehicle through an independent mechanic anyway.

Mineral oil base with lubricant additives, change oil every 5000 km. Semi-synthetic, 10,000 km. Full synthetic, 20,000 km.

Black oil means you have carbon and most probably unburnt fuel in the crankcase, which is not conducive to engine longevity.

I can remember a sales rep in my company who handed in his vehicle after the mandated 120,000 km. The oil had turned to thick tar because he had not had the car serviced for said 120K.

I agree the service business is a racket. If one was to build most vehicles from the spare parts catalogue, it would cost about ten times the RRP.

There is a new wrinkle in the service swindle, aimed at freezing out independent mechanics. The EMS software has been made so complex only the dealer's hardware can read it. They are certainly not making it available to independents.

Toyota has unveiled a new engine they claim makes EV's obsolete, although detail is lacking.

[Yellowtail]

14 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Seriously ... we'll definitely have to agree to disagree on that.

 

They make money on both, sale of the part, and labor to install it, above and beyond their actual cost.

 

What manufactures service the vehicles they produce?  

[KhunLA]

2 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

There's a simple rule of thumb I use with oil changes. I service my vehicle through an independent mechanic anyway.

Mineral oil base with lubricant additives, change oil every 5000 km. Semi-synthetic, 10,000 km. Full synthetic, 20,000 km.

Black oil means you have carbon and most probably unburnt fuel in the crankcase, which is not conducive to engine longevity.

I can remember a sales rep in my company who handed in his vehicle after the mandated 120,000 km. The oil had turned to thick tar because he had not had the car serviced for said 120K.

I agree the service business is a racket. If one was to build most vehicles from the spare parts catalogue, it would cost about ten times the RRP.

There is a new wrinkle in the service swindle, aimed at freezing out independent mechanics. The EMS software has been made so complex only the dealer's hardware can read it. They are certainly not making it available to independents.

Toyota has unveiled a new engine they claim makes EV's obsolete, although detail is lacking.

Yes I know, but amazingly, I've never had a car die from the inside out, rings and or piston wear, that the abrasive 'residue' would effect.  Oil did its job just fine as dirty as it was. 

 

Now they want you to replace squeaky clean for no other reason than to sell it.   And if not doing yourself, charge you for the privilege.  It really is silly, especially to an old hand at maintaining my cars in the past, before coming to TH.  I basically did everything and almost anything one could think of, including whole engine swap outs. 

 

Almost easier than replacing that starter or alternator where the last bolt just won't line up and go in 

[KhunLA]

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

What manufactures service the vehicles they produce?  

All of them at the dealerships, and supplying the part.   Come on, you're killing me here.  I expect these kind of replies from 'transam' 

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

All of them at the dealerships, and supplying the part.   Come on, you're killing me here.  I expect these kind of replies from 'transam' 

Dealerships are typically not owned by manufacturers. 

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

I can remember a sales rep in my company who handed in his vehicle after the mandated 120,000 km. The oil had turned to thick tar because he had not had the car serviced for said 120K.

…

 

Toyota has unveiled a new engine they claim makes EV's obsolete, although detail is lacking.

I was once a passenger in a BMW 518i heading the motorway in the UK when it died, timing belt went, valves all bent.  He hadn’t serviced from new, 120,000 miles on it.

 

I would be money that Toyota’s new engine is nothing more than an ICE designed to burn hydrogen instead of petrol, in other words, nothing more than a slightly modified CNG engine.

 

Toyota are doing everything they can to spread FUD about EV’s, they recognize the threat to their business.

[brfsa2]

On 1/29/2024 at 5:25 PM, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

 

Firstly, the US is a special case because they don’t have the Chinese EV’s there to any significant representation. They are also applying tariff’s to skew the market.

 

It’s more representational to look at countries that don’t apply tariffs, eg Thailand. Growth here is exponential, of course it will tail off with market saturation and availability, eg pickup trucks.

 

Regarding anti-EV propaganda, I don‘t have anything other than anecdotal evidence (posts about Toyota having revolutionary technology that will destroy the EV industry when it’s nothing more than the changes made to a petrol engine to enable it to run on CNG et al). I was careful to say it’s my humble opinion.  We are seeing websites like lagradaonline pop up and in the course of their first week around 10 anti-EV articles, someone with motive is behind it.  It was the type of thing Russia and Cambridge Analytics did in the trump election

 

Regarding Nio, they are an unusual case because they can be classed more of a startup then an established manufacturer, their sales volumes are tiny. It reminds me of fake it till you make it.  BYD are immensely profitable with much higher margins than Tesla mostly because they manufacture most of what they need in house eg semiconductors and plastics.

 

But that is starting to change, Chinese are VERY good at car manufacturing, very good that even Elon Musk says Chinese EV makers will pretty much demolish competitors without trade barriers. 

 

As for profit per car, may I correct you? 

Tesla makes a quite large profit per car, if I'm not mistake from my research, roughly: Tesla makes $9,700 USD in profit per car, while BYD makes $1,150 USD profit per car.

However in terms of Volume, BYD has already surpassed Tesla in sales both in China and global, but never in the USA.

 

Nio is a startup with really promising technology such as their 1000KM range battery based on 800V platform. However they are loosing money fast, they loose about $35,000 USD per car! Yes, that is insane.

Nio has been relying on the Chinese government subsidies and loans to survive and grow, but for how long? 

On a side note Nio stock is extremely low and cheap, for those with risk appetite 😄

 

The Japanese car makers are not willing to go full in EV due their huge investment in ICE cars, and I partially agree with them because ICE cars are very important for poor and under-developed countries without a good energy infrastructure. EVs need really good infrastructure for full adoption. China infrastructure is another level compared to Thailand, and so is Japan, except for the 110v power grid that is quite bad for charging EVs at home. 

 

I believe that Japan 100V grid has something to do with the low EV adoption in Japan. 

Imagine 7.2kW WALL charger (those that comes with almost every EV car) in Japan running at 100v? you will need 65 Amps at minimum, it's not really possible in 99% of the houses in Japan. 

However Japan is trying to improve its EV infrastructure and policies to increase the share of EVs and plug-in hybrids to between 20-30% by 2030. 

- Installing more high-power EV chargers along expressways and non-expressways
- Mandating new apartment towers to incorporate EV chargers starting in fiscal 2025
- Developing a road map for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies to use EVs as virtual power plants

 

For me, the main benefit of EV cars are: Cheap cost per km, which involves 99% charging at home, and never have to get into gas stations. If you have an EV car that only charges at EV stations, you will likely pay a premium of 50-100% more than charging at home, and that makes it on pair with Hybrid cars. 

 

[brfsa2]

39 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I was once a passenger in a BMW 518i heading the motorway in the UK when it died, timing belt went, valves all bent.  He hadn’t serviced from new, 120,000 miles on it.

 

I would be money that Toyota’s new engine is nothing more than an ICE designed to burn hydrogen instead of petrol, in other words, nothing more than a slightly modified CNG engine.

 

Toyota are doing everything they can to spread FUD about EV’s, they recognize the threat to their business.

That's partially correct, however the Hydrogen engines are very different and today also very inefficient. Toyota needs to develop an engine that can be at least 50% more efficient.

 

However I think Solid state batteries are taking a huge leap forward and are much more promising. 

 

[JBChiangRai]

14 minutes ago, brfsa2 said:

 

But that is starting to change, Chinese are VERY good at car manufacturing, very good that even Elon Musk says Chinese EV makers will pretty much demolish competitors without trade barriers. 

 

As for profit per car, may I correct you? 

Tesla makes a quite large profit per car, if I'm not mistake from my research, roughly: Tesla makes $9,700 USD in profit per car, while BYD makes $1,150 USD profit per car.

However in terms of Volume, BYD has already surpassed Tesla in sales both in China and global, but never in the USA.

 

I think there is something wrong with your profitability figures, in Q3 2023 BYD Auto's gross margin surged to 25.7%, figures aren't out for Q4 but they are expected to take a hit. Tesla reported a gross margin of 17.6% for the three months ended December 2023.  I couldn't find one article with both gross margins, I got the figures from the links below.

 

BYD are reported to have a significantly higher GM than Tesla and Tesla cannot win in a price war.

 

Tesla Vs. BYD: TSLA Dives On Earnings, 'Lower' Growth Warning; New EV King Misses | Investor's Business Daily (investors.com)

Tesla gross margin falls on price cuts, shares tank (msn.com)

 

5 minutes ago, brfsa2 said:

That's partially correct, however the Hydrogen engines are very different and today also very inefficient. Toyota needs to develop an engine that can be at least 50% more efficient.

 

However I think Solid state batteries are taking a huge leap forward and are much more promising. 

 

 

Even if Toyota can develop a Hydrogen engine that is 50% efficient, it will. still be around 5 times more expensive per kilometer than putting the electricity you use to make hydrogen straight in a BEV, and that is assuming automotive hydrogen doesn't attract and fuel duty.

 

I agree with you on solid state batteries, and town cars may even go Sodium Ion.

 

 

[KhunLA]

2 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Dealerships are typically not owned by manufacturers. 

I understand that distinction, but probably supply some of the parts, and get their franchise fee, so yes, profits all around.