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Posted
10 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Progress update:

 

investment: 200K

 

Fees on purchase: 1K (@Pravda to confirm actual cost)

 

Investment: 199K @ 55K6 per coin

 

199/55.6 = 3.579 coins

 

Today's price: 47K8

 

47.8 x 3.579 = 171K

 

Current loss:  200K - 171K = 29,000 CAD 

 

 

That is 3.5 times what I paid for the house I am currently sitting in. Including the life usufruct I have stamped on the back of the chanote.  I am also registered with immigration as the possessor.  So both the TM28 and the TM30 are in my name. 

 

@PravdaPM me and I will run you through how to use trailing stop losses.

 

Not even close. Loss less than 8k at the moment.

Posted
2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

I guess we can get into semantics.  Speculation versus forecasting.  With a commodity it is purely a buyer willing to pay more for a fixed product.  A barrel of oil is a barrel of oil.  Its price goes up and down strictly based on demand for the product and its supply.  The oil does not "improve" its worth. Contrast that to a share of stock in a company  take Amazon for instance. The number of shares outstanding are constant so each share is a fractional ownership of the company and its earnings.  The company "increases" in value with something tangible.  "increased earnings" not just speculation.  Certainly an element of "speculation" plays into it as investors forecast future earnings growth but the valuation unlike a commodity is not strictly based on an asset such as bitcoin, oil, or soybeans that remains unchanged with nothing tangible to warrant a rising price other than speculation. 

 

 



 

  • Amazon EPS for the twelve months ending September 30, 2021 was $51.18, a 49.87% increase year-over-year.
  • Amazon 2020 annual EPS was $41.83, a 81.79% increase from 2019.
  • Amazon 2019 annual EPS was $23.01, a 14.25% increase from 2018.
  • Amazon 2018 annual EPS was $20.14, a 227.48% increase from 2017.


 

I kinda started learning investing / trading  like I learned everything else in life by trial and fire and by doing.....having no formal education stuff like this fills in the blanks and provides a good foundation fr future investments and trades.  

Posted
29 minutes ago, Pravda said:

I am deep in the hole and got nobody to blame but myself.

 

It suddenly became a long term HODL!

Just chill dude...it'll bounce and come back.  Might take a hot minute but you'll be ok.  All markets are difficult to earn in right now.  Guys are scalping sh!t at bell every morning because the major indices are al over the place.  No predictability and no trends.  And everything except energy is bearish right now

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Pravda said:

 

Not even close. Loss less than 8k at the moment.

Ah that's right...you claimed you were going to sell half because buy had dipped to 56K.  But you never confirmed the sale on this thread or your selling price.

 

So I will amend my calculations:

 

Progress update:

 

investment: 200K

 

Fees on purchase: 1K (@Pravda to confirm actual cost)

 

Investment: 199K @ 55K6 per coin

 

199/55.6 = 3.579 coins

 

Sold half of holding because couldn't sleep at night (@Pravda to confirm selling price but noted that bid had already dropped below 56K.  OP also needs to confirm cost of selling).

 

So sold half 1.7895 coins @ 56K = 100K2

 

Fees on first purchase: 1K

Fees on sale of half holding: 0.5K

 

Currently holding 1.7895 coins purchased at 55K6

 

Today's price 47K8

 

47K8 X 1.7895 coins = 85K5 less 0.5K fees = 85K

 

200K invested 

 

Cash and coins as of today: 100K2 + 85K = 185K2

 

Net loss including fees: 14K8

 

The value of this thread is now absolutely worthless because you have not clearly reported relevant information and so you can now make things up to support your own narrative.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

The value of this thread is now absolutely worthless because you have not clearly reported relevant information and so you can now make things up to support your own narrative.

I am sorry you are disappointed I don't report directly to you. 

 

To fit my own narrative? You can't even do basic math. What to say to a guy who thinks 0.2% equals in $1000

in fees on $200,000 purchase, lolz 

 

And I mentioned I sold on page 3 and a few other times.

 

 Try harder getting invested.

 

 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

I managed a Trust Division for one of the USA largest banks.  We invested and administered pension and profit sharing accounts for corporation.  Later I worked for both Merrill Lynch and UBS Paine Webber. 

Over time, it is virtually impossible to "beat the market"  If you want a conservative investment that is a proven winner buy the indexes from Vanguard.  The S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and perhaps the total world fund.  They are very low cost to invest and over time most professional managers fail to beat them.   This is the chart of the S&P 500 since 1950.  Since 1928 if you invested in the S&P 500 and left it, it has grown at a rate of 9.8% per year.  Take any rate of return and divide it into 72 and it tells you how many years it takes for the first dollar to double in value.  At 9.8% your money doubles every 7.34 years.  So $10,000 becomes $20,000, then after 14.68 years it becomes $40,000 and after 22.04 years it becomes $80,000 and after 29.38 years it becomes $160,000 on your orginal investment of only $10,000.  It is not timing the market, it is time "in the market"  Steady consistent growth over decades produces wealth.  

Can you get rich quick with speculative investments like Bitcoin.  Sure.  But if an investor "loses" on one of those speculative investments the value of the compounding I just showed you is erased and the person now starts with a much lower base to begin over again.  Not "losing money" is actually more important than trying to hit the home run that makes you wealthy. 

sp500-average-returns.png

Ive done well in the past with Vanguard and Blackrock as my basis for the majority of investments.  For those I just let em run and adjust per sector depending on whats hot at the time.  In 2020 tech was on fire so I adjusted and earned.  Now it's energy.  Not so concerned with the investment so much anymore.  Trading is making me a decent side hustle, SPY puts as of late.  I hate betting against the market but right now it seems the only way to make money trading.   Crypto is crypto...its a speculation and something Im interested in the same way I used to be interested in gold and silver.

Posted
11 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Ah that's right...you claimed you were going to sell half because buy had dipped to 56K.  But you never confirmed the sale on this thread or your selling price.

 

So I will amend my calculations:

 

Progress update:

 

investment: 200K

 

Fees on purchase: 1K (@Pravda to confirm actual cost)

 

Investment: 199K @ 55K6 per coin

 

199/55.6 = 3.579 coins

 

Sold half of holding because couldn't sleep at night (@Pravda to confirm selling price but noted that bid had already dropped below 56K.  OP also needs to confirm cost of selling).

 

So sold half 1.7895 coins @ 56K = 100K2

 

Fees on first purchase: 1K

Fees on sale of half holding: 0.5K

 

Currently holding 1.7895 coins purchased at 55K6

 

Today's price 47K8

 

47K8 X 1.7895 coins = 85K5 less 0.5K fees = 85K

 

200K invested 

 

Cash and coins as of today: 100K2 + 85K = 185K2

 

Net loss including fees: 14K8

 

The value of this thread is now absolutely worthless because you have not clearly reported relevant information and so you can now make things up to support your own narrative.

 

 

 

 

 

 

OP should be down over $16k now, lucky he sold half or he’d be down over $32k 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, dj230 said:

OP should be down over $16k now, lucky he sold half or he’d be down over $32k 

 

No. Close to $9000 now.

 

At least when Thai vendors use the calculator they arrive at the correct price, ????

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Pravda said:

 

No. Close to $9000 now.

 

At least when Thai vendors use the calculator they arrive at the correct price, ????

Maybe I missed something

 

You bought 200k at 55k cad/btc, sold half, holding 100k at 55k cad/btc, now 46k cad /btc

 

but just using basic math, let’s ignore the $100k you bought/sold at for now and commission/transaction fees, you said you bought at $55k cad /btc and now it’s at $46k cad / btc

 

how are you down $9000 holding $100k Bitcoin at $55k cad/btc?
 

46/56 = 0.836 x $100k = $83.6k 


$16400 loss roughly 

 

maybe Thai calculators work differently and give a higher price ???? 

Edited by dj230
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Posted
50 minutes ago, dj230 said:

Maybe I missed something

 

You bought 200k at 55k cad/btc, sold half, holding 100k at 55k cad/btc, now 46k cad /btc

 

but just using basic math, let’s ignore the $100k you bought/sold at for now and commission/transaction fees, you said you bought at $55k cad /btc and now it’s at $46k cad / btc

 

how are you down $9000 holding $100k Bitcoin at $55k cad/btc?
 

46/56 = 0.836 x $100k = $83.6k 


$16400 loss roughly 

 

maybe Thai calculators work differently and give a higher price ???? 

 

Because I sold the first batch for a profit. But you're right, I'm down more than that, I'm just drowning in embarrassment.

  • Haha 1
Posted
58 minutes ago, Pravda said:

 

Because I sold the first batch for a profit. But you're right, I'm down more than that, I'm just drowning in embarrassment.

On the bright side you sold half, best of luck on break even. 

 

I usually comment on these Bitcoin threads to hopefully save people from losing money, most people don’t realize the risks and think it’s free money.
 

If 2018 plays out again though, it seems like Bitcoin will fade and the stock market will go up as all the money comes out of Bitcoin and back into equities. 
 

I don’t have any position on Bitcoin short/long bets, so I hope it does go back up for your sake. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, dj230 said:

If 2018 plays out again though, it seems like Bitcoin will fade and the stock market will go up as all the money comes out of Bitcoin and back into equities. 

It wasn’t until December 2020 that BTC again reached the ATH of December 2017, so 3 years.

 

But let’s look at what happened in 2020: Lots of lockdowns, so limited options for spending money, zero or even negative interests on your bank account deposit, adding to that, governments were literally sending free money to citizens. Combine that with people sitting at home and reading Discord about DeFi or /r/wallstreetbets, and the conditions could hardly be better for people taking their stimulus cheque (and more) and put it into crypto.

 

Furthermore, we started to see stable coins being pumped into the ecosystem (billions of dollars worth per week), and exchanges offering trading at 125x leverage. This is a way to boost demand significantly, but with nothing real backing it. It’s ironic because many crypto proponents love to talk about getting away from USD because of how the Fed can just “print money”, but they have recreated a system where they are doing the same, but with no oversight, regulation, transparency, and when the Fed “prints money” it’s a liability for the Fed that has to be met in the future, but Tether or any of the handful of other stable coin issuers could disappear tomorrow and take all their paper liabilities with them.

 

1 hour ago, dj230 said:

I don’t have any position on Bitcoin short/long bets, so I hope it does go back up for your sake. 

I feel bad for people losing money on crypto (or anything else), less so for OP, he took a semi-informed gamble and seems to have plenty of money to risk on this. The problem is with the people who are uninformed and bet money they can’t afford to lose, and the longer this goes on, the more people will end up hurt.

 

So in that sense, I hope it collapses sooner rather than later, not because of schadenfreude, but because the longer it lasts, the more people will be hurt ????

 

There is also the enormous waste of energy in a time where we are dealing with both climate change and surging energy prices. All this proof-of-work is contributing factors to both, but doing zero good for society, on the contrary, and it also contributes to price surges for gamers.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, lkn said:

It wasn’t until December 2020 that BTC again reached the ATH of December 2017, so 3 years.

 

But let’s look at what happened in 2020: Lots of lockdowns, so limited options for spending money, zero or even negative interests on your bank account deposit, adding to that, governments were literally sending free money to citizens. Combine that with people sitting at home and reading Discord about DeFi or /r/wallstreetbets, and the conditions could hardly be better for people taking their stimulus cheque (and more) and put it into crypto.

 

Furthermore, we started to see stable coins being pumped into the ecosystem (billions of dollars worth per week), and exchanges offering trading at 125x leverage. This is a way to boost demand significantly, but with nothing real backing it. It’s ironic because many crypto proponents love to talk about getting away from USD because of how the Fed can just “print money”, but they have recreated a system where they are doing the same, but with no oversight, regulation, transparency, and when the Fed “prints money” it’s a liability for the Fed that has to be met in the future, but Tether or any of the handful of other stable coin issuers could disappear tomorrow and take all their paper liabilities with them.

 

I feel bad for people losing money on crypto (or anything else), less so for OP, he took a semi-informed gamble and seems to have plenty of money to risk on this. The problem is with the people who are uninformed and bet money they can’t afford to lose, and the longer this goes on, the more people will end up hurt.

 

So in that sense, I hope it collapses sooner rather than later, not because of schadenfreude, but because the longer it lasts, the more people will be hurt ????

 

There is also the enormous waste of energy in a time where we are dealing with both climate change and surging energy prices. All this proof-of-work is contributing factors to both, but doing zero good for society, on the contrary, and it also contributes to price surges for gamers.

Although a lot of the points you made were US based, I think the real pump in 2020 for bitcoin was when it went completely global, I couldn't believe how many people around the world were buying into bitcoin with the "lottery" mentality, essentially, with the mindset "I have nothing to lose" and put all their money into it. Not only in Thailand but a lot of Asian countries, about 99% of the people I talked to who were buying bitcoin had no sense of reality or risk. They just told me "it will go up no matter what, just buy it" and the crazy thing is, people actually truly believed that. Once I realized that, I knew it would go up, but I knew it was a bubble/ponzi that will eventually fail. 

 

Once people started talking about Staking I knew the Ponzi was almost over as in my mind this was institution's getting a chance to short crypto. Once the institutions are betting against the crypto, it's probably when the Ponzi is over. I never looked into Staking except briefly, it's not marketed as a short bet at all, but something else and almost everyone I knew who was buying crypto was falling for it. They thought, let me stake my crypto, make the interest, and when I get the crypto back it'll be worth more but they failed to realize the risk if crypto were to drop while they staked their crypto, they wouldn't be able to sell and would lose money. 

I noticed this is another way to "print money", if you lend your crypto to an institution and they sell it, now you have 2x the crypto floating around, not much different than a savings account in the banking system. Of course none of these companies are insured by the government either, so your money is as good as gone if they bankrupt, which may happen soon if there is a recession. 

 

Will be interesting to see how crypto plays out, usually 2 "run ups" is all you get with ponzi's/pump and dumps, the first one and then the second one for people who "missed out" and the third run up never happens, that's usually where the bagholders/people who lose all their money buy in. I was predicting there would be one last run up once bitcoin is 100% "mined" as that would be an interesting catalyst, but it may never happen or it could be a sell the news event where institutions cash out and leave all the retail investors stuck with nothing. 

 

I think blockchain technology has a good chance of being the future, albeit I will only buy into a "crypto currency" once the US federal bank releases their version. 

Edited by dj230
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Posted
7 hours ago, Pravda said:

 

Because I sold the first batch for a profit. But you're right, I'm down more than that, I'm just drowning in embarrassment.

Profit on your first sale was maximum of $200 less your brokerage fees.

 

But of course you can claim it was any amount you like because you never posted any relevant information.

 

Now you are just making things up as you go along.

 

I also note that you have not yet PMed me so I can walk you through using trailing stop losses.

 

 

  • Confused 1
Posted
4 hours ago, dj230 said:

Although a lot of the points you made were US based, I think the real pump in 2020 for bitcoin was when it went completely global

Most of the world had lockdowns, most of the world have low interests (negative in parts of Europe), and at least some countries in Europe also gave out stimulus money. So I wouldn’t say my points are U.S. based, granted it’s easier to reason about the U.S. because we know more about what happens there, than e.g. in India, Russia, or China, but clearly the latter 3 also have problems with crypto, given that they all have/will ban it.

 

And as for global, take OneCoin which was a ponzi that peaked in 2017 and I think had majority of “investors” outside the U.S., or BitConnect which had their infamous ceremony in Pattaya also in 2017.

 

Both were of course obvious scams, but riding the global crypto FOMO.

 

4 hours ago, dj230 said:

Once people started talking about Staking I knew the Ponzi was almost over as in my mind this was institution's getting a chance to short crypto

I actually think it is one of the contributing factors to prolonging the eventual collapse: We have coins where “diamond hands” are rewarded for holding: The longer they hold, the higher the reward, though often the reward is either redistributing coins from “weak hands” or simply issuing new coins, so no actual value is generated, best case, it’s just redistributing (coins), worst-case, it’s effectively paying people to hold the coins by printing more of the same coin, diluting it in the process.

 

Some of these schemes are more complex, some even involve multiple coins, so many people don’t realize that of course they can’t get richer by buying and holding a worthless coin, or they may think that they will hold longer than anyone else, so it becomes an endurance game, but as long as buyers are holding, in theory, the price shouldn’t go down (since price is based on last trade), and the staking rewards or yield, are motivating people to hold.

 

Some of this stuff is probably also contributing to the inflated valuations, for example if I transfer 10 BTC to Celsius Network, I receive 7-8% interest, and if I then spend that on buying new bitcoins, am I buying my own bitcoins at a higher price? And what if I then also transfer these new ones to Celsius Network. This can go on ad infinitum.

 

I.e. this is unregulated fractional reserve banking but with no reserve requirements or oversight/auditrs, and in fact, these institutions can just print new coins to pay lenders, e.g. on Celsius Network you can get your interests in the CEL token, but I don’t think anyone is liable for redeeming that token for anything of value…

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Posted
5 hours ago, dj230 said:

I think blockchain technology has a good chance of being the future

This is a pretty good video from an open minded computer scientist.

 

He did interviews with crypto proponents and crypto skeptics, and here he talks about his view on the blockchain (after these interviews, and having read a lot of the white papers, or yellow, in the case of Ethereum).

 

It’s a little bit technical, but I highly recommend watching it because I think he really nails that blockchain doesn’t solve any problems whatsoever related to finance.

 

There is also one of the interviews where he raises some other points, namely that if he were to design a crypto currency, he would not build it up around a central data structure (blockchain), it basically must be distributed, take e.g. Tonga which lost internet connectivity for a few weeks because of the earthquake that broke one of the undersea cables: How would they have managed their economy if they cannot interact with the canonical blockchain? Stuff like that happens, and that is why our current money system is actually more decentralized than blockchain.

 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

 

I also note that you have not yet PMed me so I can walk you through using trailing stop losses.

Why on flat earth would I be pming you about using trailing stop losses? Who would want to dun that stuff? Now if you offered to walk me through trailing stop winnings that would be anotha matter altogether.

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Posted
On 2/21/2022 at 8:53 PM, Pravda said:

I am deep in the hole and got nobody to blame but myself.

 

It suddenly became a long term HODL!

I saw a stat this morning that 30% of all investors in BTC are down now. The 70% are mainly long term hodlers from before mid 2021. If I recall you went in around 40K for your main pot. I still think thats a good price to get in. I have some I bought at over 60k! I dollar cost average to spread the weight of my gamble.

 

DeFi is where I have the biggest unrealized gains (losses not cashed in that could become bigger losses or profits over time).
 

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Posted
7 hours ago, Whale said:

I saw a stat this morning that 30% of all investors in BTC are down now. The 70% are mainly long term hodlers from before mid 2021. If I recall you went in around 40K for your main pot. I still think thats a good price to get in. I have some I bought at over 60k! I dollar cost average to spread the weight of my gamble.

 

DeFi is where I have the biggest unrealized gains (losses not cashed in that could become bigger losses or profits over time).
 

Buy now imo 

Volume signal, support off 95 lr

Heading for 50 then 60

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Posted
On 2/15/2022 at 4:15 PM, SunnyinBangrak said:

A very ballsy move, hope it pays off for you. As I did before I plan to make a large buy a few months before the halvening, so my next major buy will be Jan 2024.

 

ha ha. By then you might be paying 200k per bitcoin. 

 

The market has crashed. Its obvious that now is the time to buy as OP has done

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Posted
On 2/20/2022 at 5:31 AM, Neeranam said:

Investing in an asset that has been increasing in value on average 100% a year? 

 

Please explain. 

Because it's all built on FOMO and has absolutely no assets of value. It's a growing bubble and just like Dot.com's in the 2000's it will pop. It's a currency with no fallback and it's bubble can burst at any second on any day. Whatever you think you have will disappear in a second as you can try to sell your coins but no one will buy them when it comes crashing down to Zero. 

 

If you are clever and cash out before the POP you will be a rich man. But if you mistime it and hold any Crypto when it bursts you will lose everything. That could happen in 10mins time, an hour,  tomorrow , in a week, month, year or decade.

 

FOMO and GFM are the worst and most risky investments you can make as they have nothing of value as security and their value only exists in the herd mentality of FOMO.

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Posted
31 minutes ago, Muzzique said:

Because it's all built on FOMO and has absolutely no assets of value. It's a growing bubble and just like Dot.com's in the 2000's it will pop.

 

Look, I'd normally agree, but these crypto "assets" are different (yea, I know). They simply can not be delisted due to cooked books as was the case with WorldCom, Nortel and a few other big names. Bitcoin will always have a cult following and even if it crashes its value will never be worth zero. Ten bucks maybe, but never zero.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Muzzique said:

Because it's all built on FOMO and has absolutely no assets of value. It's a growing bubble and just like Dot.com's in the 2000's it will pop. It's a currency with no fallback and it's bubble can burst at any second on any day. Whatever you think you have will disappear in a second as you can try to sell your coins but no one will buy them when it comes crashing down to Zero. 

 

If you are clever and cash out before the POP you will be a rich man. But if you mistime it and hold any Crypto when it bursts you will lose everything. That could happen in 10mins time, an hour,  tomorrow , in a week, month, year or decade.

 

FOMO and GFM are the worst and most risky investments you can make as they have nothing of value as security and their value only exists in the herd mentality of FOMO.

Easy to see you have absolutely NO idea about bitcoin or crypto in general.

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Pravda said:

 

Look, I'd normally agree, but these crypto "assets" are different (yea, I know). They simply can not be delisted due to cooked books as was the case with WorldCom, Nortel and a few other big names. Bitcoin will always have a cult following and even if it crashes its value will never be worth zero. Ten bucks maybe, but never zero.

OP please tell me that you're not leaving all that crypto in your exchange wallet. Do you know you should keep it on a hardware wallet?

Posted
On 2/21/2022 at 9:47 PM, Adumbration said:

Ah that's right...you claimed you were going to sell half because buy had dipped to 56K.  But you never confirmed the sale on this thread or your selling price.

 

So I will amend my calculations:

 

Progress update:

 

investment: 200K

 

Fees on purchase: 1K (@Pravda to confirm actual cost)

 

Investment: 199K @ 55K6 per coin

 

199/55.6 = 3.579 coins

 

Sold half of holding because couldn't sleep at night (@Pravda to confirm selling price but noted that bid had already dropped below 56K.  OP also needs to confirm cost of selling).

 

So sold half 1.7895 coins @ 56K = 100K2

 

Fees on first purchase: 1K

Fees on sale of half holding: 0.5K

 

Currently holding 1.7895 coins purchased at 55K6

 

Today's price 47K8

 

47K8 X 1.7895 coins = 85K5 less 0.5K fees = 85K

 

200K invested 

 

Cash and coins as of today: 100K2 + 85K = 185K2

 

Net loss including fees: 14K8

 

The value of this thread is now absolutely worthless because you have not clearly reported relevant information and so you can now make things up to support your own narrative.

 

 

 

 

 

 

or maybe you have too much time on your hands?

  • Haha 1
Posted
14 minutes ago, davidst01 said:

Easy to see you have absolutely NO idea about bitcoin or crypto in general.

I actually build Crypto and Blockchains 

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