Is Thailand likely to see a mass exodus of expats?

[Lacessit]

8 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

 

 

I prefer to study the opinions of people with real skin in the game, i.e., business people like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. They have full faith in the continued strength of the Dollar and the US economy that back stops it. 

Buffet has made a $1 billion investment in a crypto-friendly bank, after years of calling bitcoin "rat poison". That does not indicate full faith to me, more like a bet each way.

[Hummin]

Just now, Lacessit said:

Buffet has made a $1 billion investment in a crypto-friendly bank, after years of calling bitcoin "rat poison". That does not indicate full faith to me, more like a bet each way.

You can be against bitcoin, but still make money on it, well knowing it is a possible fraud? 
 

If I had money to loose, I would go in low, sell high and repeat? 
 

 

I rather spend my excess money on my gf and land I do not own ???? Thats my future risky investment

[Pattaya Spotter]

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Buffet has made a $1 billion investment in a crypto-friendly bank, after years of calling bitcoin "rat poison". That does not indicate full faith to me, more like a bet each way.

A 1B investment in a "crypto-friendly" bank (whatever that means) indicates lack of faith in the 23 TRILLION dollar US Treasury debt market (and by extension the Dollar)...if you say so. BTW Berkshire Hathaway itself is one of the biggest private holders of US treasury debt out there at over 15B...hardly evidence of a lack of faith in the future of the US economy or the value of the dollar.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Pattaya Spotter

[jvs]

If i would go back i would be homeless.

There are no empty houses where i come from,young people have to wait up to

8 years to get a rental home.

Better of here for sure.

 

[AgMech Cowboy]

1 minute ago, jvs said:

If i would go back i would be homeless.

 

Better of here for sure.

I, too, would be homeless. Not so much from the reasons you gave, but because I invested everything here. Yes, the house is in my wife's name, but she'll have a fight on her hands kicking me out...  My son won't let her do me dirty either, unless I did something bad to her, which I won't.  Long term, bad planning, yes. But, I'll be okay. HERE.

[jerrymahoney]

Nothing like the pages of AN/TV for good solid financial advice. Thanks fellas.

[spidermike007]

45 minutes ago, Hummin said:

I do have an 110m2 3 room apartment home I rent out, so not going to start on scratch, and part of the plan. 

It makes all the difference. I went back last fall, thinking I might rent a small house, to have a place to stay on extended visits. In the LA region, in a decent, but not great area, a decent 2 bedroom was $3,000 to $3,500 a month! That is over 100,000 baht a month. It is pure insanity back there. Way too much hot air in the economic balloon. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by spidermike007

[Lacessit]

32 minutes ago, jvs said:

If i would go back i would be homeless.

There are no empty houses where i come from,young people have to wait up to

8 years to get a rental home.

Better of here for sure.

 

I would not be homeless, but living with my son for the rest of my life is not a burden I would want to place on him.

[BE88]

7 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

The only expats I know who have returned had to because  of financial or health reasons. There in other reasonable to return  to broken Britain or a fractured Europe. As for friendly Arab countries: Dubai  welcomes millionaires and Russian Oligarchs ejected at last from the UK.

 

I have several friends who have returned to Europe not for financial reasons in recent years because they were just tired of being considered an intruder after living in Thailand for about ten years while in other countries after three years they get nationality and a couple they returned to rainy England only to be at "home" where no one asks to go report to the police if you leave your province more than 24 hours as a special guard and of course get each year the extension of the visa for these dirty Farangs to whom every year requests of any kind are increased including senseless surprises in their request from immigration bureaucrats.

 

The Arab countries are not only the Dubai you are referring to but other countries such as Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia where French is spoken and many prefer these places to spend the winter where the cost of living is very affordable in enchanting places with a view of the sea, flights are also less expensive and at very reasonable prices.

 

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, JoseThailand said:

The harsh reality is that in Thailand they basically need to pay women to be with them. The quality of women depends on how much you pay. Most older retirees living off their pension of course cannot pay very much and so end up with older women.

The harsh reality was I always needed to pay a woman to be with me.

But in Thailand, I got a stunningly beautiful woman 20 years younger than me for 10Kbht/month.

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Certainly, the police presence in Vietnam is a lot less obtrusive than Thailand.

Fresh bread rolls and coffee for breakfast were very welcome; however, eating pho bo and spring rolls, however well made, for the other two meals of the day palled quite quickly.

It's not infrastructure, but I also got the sense Vietnam is far more puritanical when it comes to relations between foreigners and Vietnamese. The days of Saigon as Sin City appear to be long gone.

If I had to pick a highlight of our trip there, it would be the water puppetry show in Hanoi.

 

Good post. 

 

Certainly, the police tend to leave foreigners alone in Vietnam, rather than see them as someone to simply exploit.  Riding a bike there, it was funny to me coming from Thailand to be waved through by Vietnamese police, whilst locals were being waved in, rather than foreigners being waved in, while locals are waved through, many clearly not wearing a helmet. 

 

I don't like a lot of chili, so Vietnamese food is good for me.  In general, you can add the chili if you want, rather than the dish being cooked with chili, like many Thai dishes. 

 

I agree there's certainly some older Vietnamese who appear a little standoffish with foreigners, but the younger ones embrace the presence of foreigners, and I'm not talking about bar girls.  Many want to approach and practice the few words of English they know.  They only opened the borders around 1990, so there is still that small feeling of a foreigner being a novelty in Vietnam.  Quite refreshing coming from Thailand, which has basically been colonized. 

 

I'm not sure where you went in Saigon, but in District 1 there is plenty of "sin" and if you know where to go in other districts, there's plenty of stand alone premises offering "sin" as well.  I have not experienced anything like a gogo in Vietnam, but some places have a curtain, lounge, and pole for the girl of your choice to dance on, privately. 

 

One of my favorite memories of one of the trips I did to Vietnam was doing a 2 night Ha Long Bay cruise with an attractive bar girl.  What a great time.

 

Just on the infrastructure topic, I have posted this clip before, on a different thread.  This is the sort of thing Vietnam is doing as far as infrastructure. It's world record breaking tourism infrastructure, yet, check out the drinks menu at 7:35.  A local beer is 30 baht, on a nice beach, at the end of world record breaking transport. Also note the free hammocks. No mafia BS there. 

 

I also posted that within the next 10 years Vietnam will have more international airports than Thailand.  It's tourism that is the advertisement for future expat retirees. 

 

This leads me to the question, what has Thailand built in recent years that benefits tourists, and their tourism industry? 

 

Year after year Thailand, and the Thai people, continue on with their belief that tourists will keep coming to Thailand, simply because it's Thailand, but Vietnam is not only competing, but building tourism infrastructure to overtake Thailand in the future.  

 

I have said it before, in many ways, Thailand could go the same way as the Nokia phone company.  They had a huge share of the market, took their eyes off the ball, and ultimately went broke.  Vietnam is making Thailand look like they are not only standing still, but going backwards. 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Leaver

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

2. An oppressive government that was not sincere about letting go of power. Ever. And a way, way over the top reaction of Covid, and the seemingly permanent masking of society. It is so surly and unappealing. 

9. The continued environmental destruction and worsening air quality, coupled with no intent of effort to fix anything.

2. I hardly ever leave the moobaan, no mask required.

9. It's been the best year for air quality in CM I've seen in 13 years here.

[BritManToo]

2 minutes ago, Leaver said:

I'm not sure where you went in Saigon, but in District 1 there is plenty of "sin" and if you know where to go in other districts, there's plenty of stand alone premises offering "sin" as well.  I have not experienced anything like a gogo in Vietnam, but some places have a curtain, lounge, and pole for the girl of your choice to dance on, privately. 

Agree, I couldn't even sit in the park without some woman suggesting I go to see her room.

I've never encountered that in any other place in the world (including Pattaya).

[Hummin]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

 

Good post. 

 

Certainly, the police tend to leave foreigners alone in Vietnam, rather than see them as someone to simply exploit.  Riding a bike there, it was funny to me coming from Thailand to be waved through by Vietnamese police, whilst locals were being waved in, rather than foreigners being waved in, while locals are waved through, many clearly not wearing a helmet. 

 

I don't like a lot of chili, so Vietnamese food is good for me.  In general, you can add the chili if you want, rather than the dish being cooked with chili, like many Thai dishes. 

 

I agree there's certainly some older Vietnamese who appear a little standoffish with foreigners, but the younger ones embrace the presence of foreigners, and I'm not talking about bar girls.  Many want to approach and practice the few words of English they know.  They only opened the borders around 1990, so there is still that small feeling of a foreigner being a novelty in Vietnam.  Quite refreshing coming from Thailand, which has basically been colonized. 

 

I'm not sure where you went in Saigon, but in District 1 there is plenty of "sin" and if you know where to go in other districts, there's plenty of stand alone premises offering "sin" as well.  I have not experienced anything like a gogo in Vietnam, but some places have a curtain, lounge, and pole for the girl of your choice to dance on, privately. 

 

One of my favorite memories of one of the trips I did to Vietnam was doing a 2 night Ha Long Bay cruise with an attractive bar girl.  What a great time.

 

Just on the infrastructure topic, I have posted this clip before, on a different thread.  This is the sort of thing Vietnam is doing as far as infrastructure. Iit's world record breaking tourism infrastructure. 

 

I also posted that within the next 10 years Vietnam will have more international airports than Thailand.  It's tourism that is the advertisement for future expat retirees. 

 

This leads me to the question, what has Thailand built in recent years that benefits tourists, and their tourism industry? 

 

Year after year Thailand, and the Thai people, continue on with their belief that tourists will keep coming to Thailand, simply because it's Thailand, but Vietnam is not only competing, but building tourism infrastructure to overtake Thailand in the future.  

 

I have said it before, in many ways, Thailand could go the same way as the Nokia phone company.  They had a huge share of the market, took their eyes off the ball, and ultimately went broke.  Vietnam is making Thailand look like they are not only standing still, but going backwards. 

 

The biggest future problem with Vietnam, is China

[Lacessit]

5 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

 

 

I'm not sure where you went in Saigon, but in District 1 there is plenty of "sin" and if you know where to go in other districts, there's plenty of stand alone premises offering "sin" as well.  I have not experienced anything like a gogo in Vietnam, but some places have a curtain, lounge, and pole for the girl of your choice to dance on, privately. 

 

One of my favorite memories of one of the trips I did to Vietnam was doing a 2 night Ha Long Bay cruise with an attractive bar girl.  What a great time.

 

 

I was limited in my options, because I had my Thai GF with me. Strangely, every Vietnamese thought she was a Filipina.

 

I took the two night Ha Long Bay cruise, it was spectacular and also depressing. A lot of visual pollution with floating plastics, and having 600 cruise ships there indicated how easy it is to spoil a natural wonder with mass tourism.

[Lacessit]

7 minutes ago, Hummin said:

The biggest future problem with Vietnam, is China

IIRC, each time the Chinese have tried it on with the Vietnamese, they have had to retreat with a bloody nose.

The Vietnamese fought the most powerful nation in the world, and won. They know it, and so does China.

[Leaver]

23 minutes ago, Hummin said:

The biggest future problem with Vietnam, is China

 

The biggest future problem for every country in the world is China.  ???? 

[Hummin]

12 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

IIRC, each time the Chinese have tried it on with the Vietnamese, they have had to retreat with a bloody nose.

The Vietnamese fought the most powerful nation in the world, and won. They know it, and so does China.

Now China is their biggest business partner! Same for Laos and Cambodia, to Thailand still Usa, but China is coming. Phillippines have 4 major almost equal partners Usa, China, Japan, Hong Kong (china) So basically China for Phil. 
 

It is not all about bloody war coming from China For Asian neighboring countries,  China come with huge economical promises for the future, and Phillippines and Thailand have to choose side. Vietnam is already in their pocket together with Laos and Cambodia. Why risk the future with a bloody war, when the war can be somewhere else? 

[Hummin]

7 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

The biggest future problem for every country in the world is China.  ???? 

At least for our Western economic, we have everything to loose. China have another structure and ability to manage to get through crises than we have. 

[Leaver]

14 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

IIRC, each time the Chinese have tried it on with the Vietnamese, they have had to retreat with a bloody nose.

The Vietnamese fought the most powerful nation in the world, and won. They know it, and so does China.

 

Yes, it's part of the Vietnamese identity to fight for their land.  They will fight until there is no Vietnamese person left to keep fighting. 

 

If China did invade Vietnam, with around 100 million population, and all willing to fight, China would have to deploy a hell of a lot of their military to maintain control, which they may never actually achieve. 

 

China, the French, America, all tried and failed. 

 

Thailand does not have the proud history that Vietnam has when it comes to war. 

[Lacessit]

4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

Yes, it's part of the Vietnamese identity to fight for their land.  They will fight until there is no Vietnamese person left to keep fighting. 

 

If China did invade Vietnam, with around 100 million population, and all willing to fight, China would have to deploy a hell of a lot of their military to maintain control, which they may never actually achieve. 

 

China, the French, America, all tried and failed. 

 

Thailand does not have the proud history that Vietnam has when it comes to war. 

Thailand's history has always been one of accommodation. They avoided colonization with negotiation, and were left untouched when the Japanese swept through the rest of Asia.

it does make me think if Thailand ever got into a real war with anyone, its generals would all be skedaddling to Switzerland.

[Lacessit]

16 minutes ago, Hummin said:

At least for our Western economic, we have everything to loose. China have another structure and ability to manage to get through crises than we have. 

Really. I guess that structure and ability is in play with dozens of Chinese cities in lockdown, with residents unable to move or get food staples delivered. Ghost cities and trains going to nowhere, a property sector buckling under massive debt and shoddy building standards. A population that is ageing faster than anywhere else. Yeah, the Chinese are doing just fine.

[Leaver]

9 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Phillippines and Thailand have to choose side.

 

I think it's clear Thailand has chosen China.

 

The US Vice President, Kamala Harris, visited Vietnam in 2021, despite covid.  I think the US has given up on Thailand. 

22 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Vietnam is already in their pocket together with Laos and Cambodia.

 

I don't think Vietnam is in the pocket of the Chinese.  If anything, Vietnam is making stronger ties with the west. 

[The Hammer2021]

1 hour ago, BE88 said:

I have several friends who have returned to Europe not for financial reasons in recent years because they were just tired of being considered an intruder after living in Thailand for about ten years while in other countries after three years they get nationality and a couple they returned to rainy England only to be at "home" where no one asks to go report to the police if you leave your province more than 24 hours as a special guard and of course get each year the extension of the visa for these dirty Farangs to whom every year requests of any kind are increased including senseless surprises in their request from immigration bureaucrats.

 

The Arab countries are not only the Dubai you are referring to but other countries such as Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia where French is spoken and many prefer these places to spend the winter where the cost of living is very affordable in enchanting places with a view of the sea, flights are also less expensive and at very reasonable prices.

 

Algeria- LOL.

Spanish  and French  is spoken in Morocco- it's a Muslim country and brings with it  all the attendant issues especially for women.  Tunisia and Morocco is bitterly cold in the winter and Tunisia is possible  the most boring country  in Africa.  In North  Africa  you won't just feel like an intruder you are. I have no idea  what retirement opportunities there are for Europeans in these places but for Jews, Americans and Israelis they won't be much of  a welcome.

Morocco is one of the very worst for street hassles. You have to  hire someone to keep other street hustlers away. Everyone  who has  been to  Morocco knows this.

For most people Morocco is an adventure the best part of  which is  leaving. Dreadful customs and border guards BTW.

To suggest  North Africa as an alternative  to Thailand is totally unrealistic. It's absurd.

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by The Hammer2021

[TropicalGuy]

15 hours ago, wasabi said:

It is still relatively cheap to live here and the Thailand Elite Visa makes immigration easy. Air pollution is the number one reason I would consider leaving. 

Air Quality rated 12(“Good”) in Phuket. 

[TropicalGuy]

10 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Algeria- LOL.

Spanish  and French  is spoken in Morocco- it's a Muslim country and brings with it  all the attendant issues especially for women.  Tunisia and Morocco is bitterly cold in the winter and Tunisia is possible  the most boring country  in Africa.  In North  Africa  you won't just feel like an intruder you are. I have no idea  what retirement opportunities there are for Europeans in these places but for Jews, Americans and Israelis they won't be much of  a welcome.

Morocco is one of the very worst for street hassles. You have to  hire someone to keep other street hustlers away. Everyone  who has  been to  Morocco knows this.

For most people Morocco is an adventure the best part of  which is  leaving. Dreadful customs and border guards BTW.

To suggest  North Africa as an alternative  to Thailand is totally unrealistic. It's absurd.

 

North (All) Africa an unmitigated dangerous dirthole as is Latin America & West / South Asia????????

Med. Europe is great but expensive. 
Adriatic Europe ? Florida ? Er , no ……

Really only leaves SE Asia ….. right but forget everywhere there except …. Thailand! ????????????????????

[Hummin]

43 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Really. I guess that structure and ability is in play with dozens of Chinese cities in lockdown, with residents unable to move or get food staples delivered. Ghost cities and trains going to nowhere, a property sector buckling under massive debt and shoddy building standards. A population that is ageing faster than anywhere else. Yeah, the Chinese are doing just fine.

We just have to wait and see I guess. 

[TropicalGuy]

56 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Thailand's history has always been one of accommodation. They avoided colonization with negotiation, and were left untouched when the Japanese swept through the rest of Asia.

it does make me think if Thailand ever got into a real war with anyone, its generals would all be skedaddling to Switzerland.

UK pacified Vietnam post WW2 using Jap soldiers & British methods. 

Then handed over to France …….????

UK maintained Thailand as Neutral Buffer State against French Asia.

(no “negotiation”).

 

Thailand were easily occupied by, and collaborated with, the Japs.

 

Thailand always been hopeless Militarily. 

[Mac Mickmanus]

2 hours ago, Leaver said:

I'm not sure where you went in Saigon, but in District 1 there is plenty of "sin" and if you know where to go in other districts, there's plenty of stand alone premises offering "sin" as well.  I have not experienced anything like a gogo in Vietnam, but some places have a curtain, lounge, and pole for the girl of your choice to dance on, privately. 

When you say "sin" are you talking about sex and paid for sex, prostitution ?

[kingstonkid]

16 hours ago, BE88 said:

Many expats from Europe have already returned permanently, those who remain will make it more difficult to move to another country as they have families in Thailand so they will resist the rise in prices in Thailand because prices in Europe are also rising.

For the most part, the migratory birds of the six months have already found more hospitable places in the southern European countries and Arab countries.

A great many of those migratory Shorts flip flops and Chang shirt wearers usually come her in the winter months.  This year they were not able to do so,

 

Therefore I think that you will find that there will be a greater number of people coming too Thailand in the fall than there were leaving this spring.  

 

It may seem more expensive but I am still betting that lifing in the U.K is ore expensive than living here.  I know it is mroe expensive in Canada