Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 1 minute ago, placeholder said: For one thing, there is a whole field now of behavorial economics which address the concerns raised by the author. Which somehow he manages to neglect. But it is significant that the original sinner cited in the article is Milton Friedman. He was and still is the economic god cited by economists. In fact his work led to the founding of the right wing field of economics called rational markets. And yes, they failed big time. But they are only a small section of the markets. And the article you cited offers no numbers, no percentages of how often economists get it wrong. So if you think that this is justification for your assertion that "economists are wrong most of the time", then it's time for you to acquaint yourself with some very basic math. https://intheblack.cpaaustralia.com.au/economy/how-accurate-are-economic-forecasts Wrong 87.5% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mac Mickmanus Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, candide said: Frankly, you are not serious. It wasn't the average civil disorder, it was an assault on fundamental federal institutions established by the U.S. Constitution. Obviously a matter of national concern for a POTUS. Although I didn't say that it wasn't a matter of concern for Donald , my point is that it wasn't his job to keep civil order in Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candide Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: Economists are wrong most of the time. Thats why they are still working for others. Experts are billionaires not wage slaves. This is not true but let's assume you are right and that businessmen are more reliable than economists. What are businessmen doing? They are onsistently recruiting new employees. Businessmen don't create jobs when they expect a recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: Economists are wrong most of the time. Thats why they are still working for others. Experts are billionaires not wage slaves. Trump is or maybe was a billionaire and he no expert. He made some silly economic ideas like trade wars are good and easy to win. That kind of made your statement rather asinine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 1 minute ago, candide said: This is not true but let's assume you are right and that businessmen are more reliable than economists. What are businessmen doing? They are onsistently recruiting new employees. Businessmen don't create jobs when they expect a recession. It is true. I just proved it. Cpa research. Even top economists admit it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Eric Loh said: Trump is or maybe was a billionaire and he no expert. He made some silly economic ideas like trade wars are good and easy to win. That kind of made your statement rather asinine. Expert at marketing. Not an expert at everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mac Mickmanus Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, candide said: This is not true but let's assume you are right and that businessmen are more reliable than economists. What are businessmen doing? They are onsistently recruiting new employees. Businessmen don't create jobs when they expect a recession. The USA unemployment rate hasn't changed for the previous four months , which suggests that no new jobs are being created , and that is after a nine months of the unemployment rate decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, placeholder said: One of the last resorts of the desperate here is to claim some sort of personal experience or professional qualifcations. We're all anonymous here. You can only be fairly judged by the quality of your comments. It doesn't encourage belief in your assertions when you lump economists and stockbrokers together. I just proved it. 87.5% wrong according to cpa research. All you have is personal attacks, no facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placeholder Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said: Although I didn't say that it wasn't a matter of concern for Donald , my point is that it wasn't his job to keep civil order in Washington If that's the case then why did Trump say this "“I immediately deployed the National Guard and federal law enforcement to secure the building and expel the intruders.” https://www.factcheck.org/2021/01/timeline-of-national-guard-deployment-to-capitol/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placeholder Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: I just proved it. 87.5% wrong according to cpa research. All you have is personal attacks, no facts. 87.5% wrong in predicting recessions. Economics is a huge field and it's about a lot more than predicting recessions. For one thing, thanks to people like John Maynard Keyes (who, by the way, was a brilliant investor) we do know how to get out of depressions and recessions. We know how to fight inflation. And that's just a small part of what economists do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, placeholder said: You can only be fairly judged by the quality of your comments. Correct. My comments are supported by cpa data which prove my comments to be right. Where is your data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placeholder Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: All you have is personal attacks, no facts. I questioned your unverifiable claims about your qualifications. Such claims are worthless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placeholder Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Just now, Sparktrader said: Correct. My comments are supported by cpa data which prove my comments to be right. Where is your data? Once again, you claimed that most economists are wrong most of the time. This evidence you offered is about only 1 part of economics. So, no, you've proved nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chomper Higgot Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 39 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said: My point was that they are regarded as being citizens protesting , rather than a foreign army invading the USA . I didn't say that they were protesting lawfully , I just said they were protestors and not an enemy They were not protestors. Have you come across the term ‘enemies, foreign and domestic’? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Just now, placeholder said: 87.5% wrong in predicting recessions. Economics is a huge field and it's about a lot more than predicting recessions. For one thing, thanks to people like John Maynard Keyes (who, by the way, was a brilliant investor) we do know how to get out of depressions and recessions. We know how to fight inflation. And that's just a small part of what economists do. Obviously you have never studied economics. I have. Most forecasts are wrong, gdp, inflation, interest rates etc. Why are they wrong? Forecasting is difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, placeholder said: I questioned your unverifiable claims about your qualifications. Such claims are worthless. Everyone who studies economics knows forecasts are normally wrong. Proven fact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, placeholder said: Once again, you claimed that most economists are wrong most of the time. This evidence you offered is about only 1 part of economics. So, no, you've proved nothing. Post the proof their forecasts are accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chomper Higgot Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said: Although I didn't say that it wasn't a matter of concern for Donald , my point is that it wasn't his job to keep civil order in Washington It wasn’t his job to ferment an attack on the Capitol either. Edited July 30, 2022 by Chomper Higgot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placeholder Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Just now, Sparktrader said: Post the proof their forecasts are accurate. What don't you understand about the fact that forecasting is only one small part of economics. I already noted this above. It gets an inordinate amount of attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix Rising Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: Expert at marketing. Not an expert at everything. "Expert at marketing." Didn't market his reelection very well, did he. "Not an expert at everything." Understatement of the millennium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candide Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said: Although I didn't say that it wasn't a matter of concern for Donald , my point is that it wasn't his job to keep civil order in Washington It was an obvious case of national emergency so he could have called the national guard which the VP did.. So it's the VP's duty but not the President's duty? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, placeholder said: What don't you understand about the fact that forecasting is only one small part of economics. I already noted this above. It gets an inordinate amount of attention. Economists study data and forecast the future. Thats their job. I proved you wrong. You wont admit it. Here is why https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-are-economic-forecasts-wrong-so-often/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phoenix Rising said: "Expert at marketing." Didn't market his reelection very well, did he. "Not an expert at everything." Understatement of the millennium? He did well. Media against him. W dc against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chomper Higgot Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: Everyone who studies economics knows forecasts are normally wrong. Proven fact. It’s a very narrowly defined fact. Economic forecasts are made with attendant statements on degrees of certainty. Predictions within the state degrees of certainty are not ‘wrong’. Taking your claim that you have have experience in economics at face value, then you already know this which gives rise to the obvious question ‘why do you choose to omit this salient piece of information’? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slip Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 ^Slightly above: a disavowing trump fanboy lecturing on fiscal responsibility. Some of these people are so far over the edge that it may be too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix Rising Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: He did well. Media against him. W dc against him. "He did well. Media against him." He had the most watched cable tv network basically functioning as his private 24/7 cheerleader so obviously bs. Despite that he lost by an astounding number of votes. "W dc against him." Is that some sort of QuackAnon code? Edited July 30, 2022 by Phoenix Rising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said: It’s a very narrowly defined fact. Economic forecasts are made with attendant statements on degrees of certainty. Predictions within the state degrees of certainty are not ‘wrong’. Taking your claim that you have have experience in economics at face value, then you already know this which gives rise to the obvious question ‘why do you choose to omit this salient piece of information’? Wrong. There are no degrees of certainty only degrees of accuracy. Inflation forecast 6.3 good guess Inflation forecast 7.5 bad guess Reality 6.1 0.2 out is a good guess. 1.2 out is a bad guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparktrader Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said: why do you choose to omit this salient piece of information’? Because it's a false claim. No economist can make a 100% claim about the future. What will inflation be in 18 months? Nobody knows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chomper Higgot Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 25 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: Wrong. There are no degrees of certainty only degrees of accuracy. Inflation forecast 6.3 good guess Inflation forecast 7.5 bad guess Reality 6.1 0.2 out is a good guess. 1.2 out is a bad guess. OK, so I was wrong to take your statement on your experience at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chomper Higgot Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, Sparktrader said: Because it's a false claim. No economist can make a 100% claim about the future. What will inflation be in 18 months? Nobody knows. Which economists claim to make 100% [certain] claims about the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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