Australian Dollar is collapsing

[Adumbration]

5 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The probability of that is extremely low.

Look at a map, it is a simple matter for either the US or India to entirely choke off trade and the flow of goods in the Malacca Strait. Or mine China's ports. It would destroy the Chinese economy, the Chinese know it. They are ten years away from getting a supply chain via Russia.

Sure, there will be some sabre rattling. That's all it will amount to.

The Chinese economy is doomed regardless.  It has a critically inverted population pyramid due to the one child policy.  

 

And please tell me how US or India would choke off the Malacca Straits or mine the South China Sea without the Chinese being forced to retaliate.

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, Adumbration said:

The Chinese economy is doomed regardless.  It has a critically inverted population pyramid due to the one child policy.  

 

And please tell me how US or India would choke off the Malacca Straits or mine the South China Sea without the Chinese being forced to retaliate.

Interdicting maritime trade routes calls for the projection of sea power. While China has the largest navy, it's far from the right mix.

The USA has 64 nuclear submarines, China has 6. America has 11 aircraft carriers, China has 3.

The Comte de Bussy-Rabutin said God is on the side of the big battalions. Voltaire said God is on the side of the best shots. I suspect the US meets both criteria.

India's advantage consists of proximity.

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Interdicting maritime trade routes calls for the projection of sea power. While China has the largest navy, it's far from the right mix.

The USA has 64 nuclear submarines, China has 6. America has 11 aircraft carriers, China has 3.

The Comte de Bussy-Rabutin said God is on the side of the big battalions. Voltaire said God is on the side of the best shots. I suspect the US meets both criteria.

India's advantage consists of proximity.

Nice try at deflecting the issue.  

 

You suggested that Malacca Straights could be blocked and the South China Sea mined without retaliation by China.  And then you said that the probability of conflict is "extremely low"

 

I called you out....and then you post some nonsense about who you think would win.

 

 

[HighPriority]

4 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Nice try at deflecting the issue.  

 

You suggested that Malacca Straights could be blocked and the South China Sea mined without retaliation by China.  And then you said that the probability of conflict is "extremely low"

 

I called you out....and then you post some nonsense about who you think would win.

 

 

I thought nonsense was the theme of this thread ?

[Lacessit]

12 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Nice try at deflecting the issue.  

 

You suggested that Malacca Straights could be blocked and the South China Sea mined without retaliation by China.  And then you said that the probability of conflict is "extremely low"

 

I called you out....and then you post some nonsense about who you think would win.

 

 

I've given you the numbers. If you don't like them, too bad.

I never said the South China Sea could be mined, I said Chinese ports could be mined. A deflection of yours.

You don't seem to understand China is far more dependent on America to keep its economy going, than vice versa.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Lacessit

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I've given you the numbers. If you don't like them, too bad.

I never said the South China Sea could be mined, I said Chinese ports could be mined. A deflection of yours.

You don't seem to understand China is far more dependent on America to keep its economy going, than vice versa.

 

So Chinese ports could be mined without retaliation?

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, Adumbration said:

So Chinese ports could be mined without retaliation?

You are obviously not a student of history, and the US did not have stealth aircraft then.

 

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/no-free-navigation-why-the-u-s-navy-dropped-11-000-mines-across-north-vietnamese-ports-50-years-ago

[Adumbration]

5 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

You are obviously not a student of history, and the US did not have stealth aircraft then.

 

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/no-free-navigation-why-the-u-s-navy-dropped-11-000-mines-across-north-vietnamese-ports-50-years-ago

You are still deflecting and not answering the question.  I don't care how Chinese ports would be mined.  I want to tell me once they are mined why the Chinese would not retaliate.

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, Adumbration said:

You are still deflecting and not answering the question.  I don't care how Chinese ports would be mined.  I want to tell me once they are mined why the Chinese would not retaliate.

IMO you are starting to splutter, I think you meant to say "I  want you to tell me".

So how would the Chinese retaliate? Possibly by mining San Francisco and Los Angeles ports, that's only half American ports. It has an eastern seaboard, China has no western ports. I haven't seen any reports of Chinese submarines lurking off SF or LA.

As I said before, the US has the numbers in quantity and quality. You still fail to understand the concept of sea power and its projection, or perhaps you just don't want to because it interferes with your argument.

The Chinese could retaliate with nukes, we all know how that ends.

[Adumbration]

Exactly as I predicted.  Fed raised the cash rate again last night and the AUD collapse is now back on track.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Adumbration

[Olmate]

On 5/4/2023 at 4:29 PM, Adumbration said:

Exactly as I predicted.  Fed raised the cash rate again last night and the AUD collapse is now back on track.

On track or what? 

[Jack Cook]

On 10/13/2022 at 11:14 AM, ezzra said:

Not only the dollar, life in Australia become more difficult, confusing and expensive, not the Oz of yesteryear that's for sure...

How right you are, the place is sinking like the Titanic. Interested to watch the spectacle from afar ????

[Goat]

On 10/13/2022 at 10:37 AM, Adumbration said:

RBA made the decision last meeting to take their foot off the rate increase peddle. A policital decision to try and prevent total collapse of Australian property market. 

 

The RBA is not political. 

On 10/13/2022 at 10:37 AM, Adumbration said:

 

 

 

However the result will be the AUD collapsing to sub 50 USD.

Here we are 7 months after your prediction and it is higher.

Lucky I didnt cash out of my AUD as you recommended.

[Goat]

On 5/4/2023 at 4:29 PM, Adumbration said:

Exactly as I predicted.  Fed raised the cash rate again last night and the AUD collapse is now back on track.

Nah

[Goat]

On 10/13/2022 at 7:48 PM, Lacessit said:

As the pension I get from Centrelink has increased by 4.5% recently, I am not too concerned.

You dont feel guilty that you live off Centerlink welfare?

 

Dont tell me "I paid taxes all my life"

We all did mate. And those of us who saved for our own retirement paid a lot more.

 

That is the big problem with Australia these days. Everyone looking for centerlink handouts

I wouldnt be caught dead in the place.

[Olmate]

[ubonr1971]

On 10/13/2022 at 8:06 PM, Aussiepeter said:

I can't believe some of the silly uneducated comments made on here about Australia & the economy. Australian banks are amongst the toughest in the world, have good reserves and don't look like going backwards. Never have done since the Great Depression of 1930. A simple computer glitch in the transfer mechanism between banks caused a minor hiccup yesterday - nothing else. After coming & going to LOS for years, I moved to LOS & stayed from 2000 - 2013 and lived well, building a lovely home with my Thai wife and child. My army pension meant we could live well, but living like a farang costs $, so we saved little over those thirteen years. Then, after a cancer diagnosis, I made the decision to relocate back to Oz and it was the best one I ever made, according to the lady of the house. She will NEVER go back to Thailand - she has made that very clear. I beat the cancer & went back to work. My family has bred & raced thoroughbreds for well over 100 years. I inherited the business, but not for free. We sold our house in LOS & returned to OZ - nine years on we own our house and farm & now have millions of baht in the bank. Better still, Oz banks are guaranteed by our Federal govt. & as I studied law, I never let the balance go over 5 mil baht ($250K) in any one bank as, that is the limit for one person per account in one bank that is govt. guaranteed. As someone else said, our economy is resource based just like, say, Saudi Arabia. They have oil - we have unlimited high grade coal for steel-making, plus iron ore, gas, beef & grain for export and now lithium, needed by the entire world for batteries. Any talk of Australia going broke is fanciful, at best. I gamble thousands of baht every Wednesday & Sunday alone, on races in Hong Kong and, that's just for fun. I work hard, but the rewards are enormous. Yes, there are many lazy welfare bludgers in Oz, but there are plenty more just like my Thai wife & I who work hard & love it here. Yes the Oz dollar is low, but look at the UK pound and Euro ! I turned 70 today - my doctor called me to say my latest cancer test was clear - that's six years now. One thing is certain, I'd trust an Australian bank before I'd ever again put one cent in a Thai bank - at least here they pay interest to foreigners ...... 

 

No offence but you do sound like a little Aussie battler. But thats ok. 

 

With regards to your last sentence you sound a little ignorant. The GSB bank in Thailand (pink bank) is the government bank. The mega rich families in Thailand hold huge money in this bank. More than the pissy 250,000 aud that you are worried about putting in an oz bank. Before you start bagging out thai banks you could learn from Thais who have a lot more money than you. 

[still kicking]

On 6/14/2023 at 7:30 AM, Olmate said:

Today up to 23.64

[Adumbration]

On 6/22/2023 at 2:22 AM, still kicking said:

Today up to 23.64

Collapse back on track as predicted.  Some analysts are now predicting 40c to the USD.  

[Adumbration]

This Forbes article is entirely wrong in every aspect:

 

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/au/investing/currencies/aud-to-usd-forecast-and-trends/

 

[Adumbration]

AUD USD now 65c with no black swan event.  Next stop 60c

[ChaiyaTH]

16 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

AUD USD now 65c with no black swan event.  Next stop 60c

Ehh no. But anyway, all the idiots with 12 pages of posts here and a dollar to be collapsing. Really? It's that hard to get your facts rights? People are dumb with money for sure. It is so easy to just check every 3 months: country results, printing rates, interest rates, returns, debts, profits.

 

I mean honestly, anyone who could not see coming a better 5-10 years were coming FX wise, to the western benefit, were clueless to begin with. This was totally expected since 2-3 years.

 

This typical clarity and intelligence is why rich never work, 100K is plenty to retire with, while the average idiot would still be convinced he gets 50-80K a year on 1 million dollars. Hardcore life.

Edited August 14, 2023 by ChaiyaTH

[still kicking]

1 minute ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Ehh no. But anyway, all the idiots with 12 pages of posts here and a dollar to be collapsing. Really? It's that hard to get your facts rights? People are dumb with money for sure. It is so easy to just check every 3 months: country results, printing rates, interest rates, returns, debts, profits.

That is all he posts why doesn't he get a job at the reserve bank if he is so smart the greenback is only the 10th strongest currency in the world.

[ChaiyaTH]

3 minutes ago, still kicking said:

That is all he posts why doesn't he get a job at the reserve bank if he is so smart the greenback is only the 10th strongest currency in the world.

Well honestly, many of the people on this forum and in Thailand are obvious older people, and then if looking at their actual capital VS returns, it is a complete joke. I can know, I lived here now 12 years+ with a minimal amount in savings (started in debt even). 

 

But Thailand is also incredible expensive, if looking what you get in return. Yeah a sailboat cost some, but once that's done, its win win. Financial knowledge is valuable as a diamond.

Edited August 14, 2023 by ChaiyaTH

[still kicking]

5 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Well honestly, many of the people on this forum and in Thailand are obvious older people, and then if looking at their actual capital VS returns, it is a complete joke. I can know, I lived here now 12 years+ with a minimal amount in savings (started in debt even). 

 

But Thailand is also incredible expensive, if looking what you get in return. Yeah a sailboat cost some, but once that's done, its win win.

Well, I am not in LOS anymore I moved back to OZ a few years back after I lost everything in Thailand, and I can't complain, and yes, I live on the OAP now rent a 2-bedroom condo and still travel to Thailand twice a year, yes, it is getting expansive but that is all over the world not just Australia.

[Yellowtail]

16 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

 I lived here now 12 years+ with a minimal amount in savings...

Which begs the question...

[bignok]

16 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Well honestly, many of the people on this forum and in Thailand are obvious older people, and then if looking at their actual capital VS returns, it is a complete joke. I can know, I lived here now 12 years+ with a minimal amount in savings (started in debt even). 

 

But Thailand is also incredible expensive, if looking what you get in return. Yeah a sailboat cost some, but once that's done, its win win. Financial knowledge is valuable as a diamond.

Is it?

[gearbox]

17 hours ago, Adumbration said:

AUD USD now 65c with no black swan event.  Next stop 60c

Currently in Europe, the Aussie is at around 14 years low against the Euro. IMO China would probably need less resources in near to medium future, so I expect a slow trend downwards. Also China is installing massive capacity of green and nuclear energy, so coal demand may be reduced too in the next 5 years.

[gearbox]

17 hours ago, still kicking said:

Well, I am not in LOS anymore I moved back to OZ a few years back after I lost everything in Thailand, and I can't complain, and yes, I live on the OAP now rent a 2-bedroom condo and still travel to Thailand twice a year, yes, it is getting expansive but that is all over the world not just Australia.

It depends where your "condo" is...in Sydney any 2 bedroom apartment within 10km from the beach will swallow your OAP completely, and many would cost a way more.

[gearbox]

On 5/3/2023 at 3:55 AM, Red Phoenix said:

Yes, from a high of 25,65 THB on July 28 last year the AUD has now fallen to 22,71 THB.

That's almost 13%...

Forex forecasts are like weather forecasts, but at 25+ AUD didn't seem to me to have much more potential to go further up, so I moved quite a bit of money from Oz to Thailand.. around 2 years worth of living expenses.