Soaring baht as the Thai economic spirit rises with one of the world’s lowest levels of inflation

[webfact]

Chayawadee Chai-Anant Assistant Governor of the Bank of Thailand commented this week on the rise of the Thai baht and the purchase by foreign investors of ฿107 billion in securities including bonds and shares.

 

by James Morris and Son Nguyen

Definitive US inflation data showing lower inflation figures interpreted by the markets this time as meaning the Federal Reserve might be more inclined to reduce the level of future interest rate hikes. This and signs of life from China that its economy may be ready to relaunch after a disturbing shutdown imposed by authorities to fight the pandemic, has been enough to send the baht surging against the US dollar since October 19th last.

Thailand’s economy and currency have come thundering back in the last three weeks with the baht’s value soaring through multiple barriers to hit ฿35.93 to the US currency while both consumer and industry confidence are on the rise. The country’s inflation rate has also been ticking downward while the kingdom finds itself at the bottom of the scale, ranked 107 out of 130 countries, on the basis of inflation, far behind developed economies such as the United Kingdom, United States and Germany.

The Thai currency has staged a rapid comeback against the US dollar in the last three weeks which has seen the world’s default currency fall in value by 6.2% against the baht.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2022/11/12/soaring-baht-as-thai-economic-spirit-rises/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2022-11-14

 

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[madmitch]

It is not a soaring baht, it's a weakening dollar - no surprise considering the gains the dollar has made this year!

 

All major currencies have made gains against the dollar during this time. In the past month the baht is weaker against the GBP and almost the same against the Euro.

 

It does appear that Thai financiers only seem to think there are only two currencies in the world!

[spidermike007]

Likely more about the softening of the dollar. Thailand's economy is doing anything but roaring back. However, inflation is lower than in the US and Europe where prices are soaring. 

[HuskerDo2]

1 hour ago, madmitch said:

It is not a soaring baht, it's a weakening dollar - no surprise considering the gains the dollar has made this year!

 

All major currencies have made gains against the dollar during this time. In the past month the baht is weaker against the GBP and almost the same against the Euro.

 

It does appear that Thai financiers only seem to think there are only two currencies in the world!

The dollar really only weakened against the baht in the last 10 days or so. Inflation in the US is off the charts but beginning to be reined in especially in housing and rates. Food costs are off the charts. Most are paying 20 - 30% more than last year. The stats the govt uses may be tainted as I have real-life proof that food inflation is far higher than reported in the US. 

 

It's great that inflation has remained low in Thailand. I also find it poetic justice that the Chinese continue to keep millions locked in their homes to address Covid while the rest of the world is moving along, especially since Covid began in China and they tried to cover it all up. So sad, too bad. 

[smedly]

they just tell lies

 

at some point "soon" the lies will be exposed and it will all come tumbling down..........I am a firm believer in history repeating because we just never learn lessons and never change.........I will predict what happens next unless they get bailed out at serious cost - Thailand will default on its loans ...............unless they get bailed out - from that time they are owned

[RichardColeman]

I just love the way the the $ crashes and my £ goes down against the baht 1.5 baht !

[BritManToo]

11 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

I just love the way the the $ crashes and my £ goes down against the baht 1.5 baht !

42.5 is not so bad.

[Lucky Bones]

Difficult to measure anything here when such a tiny part of the population pay tax and all economic data/polls are central to Bkk.

Can not compare Thai economy to others. Chalk and cheese.

 

[Don Chance]

weed, weed, weed....

[Don Chance]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Likely more about the softening of the dollar. Thailand's economy is doing anything but roaring back. However, inflation is lower than in the US and Europe where prices are soaring. 

There is a massive influx of tourists and foreign currency. That is  what is strengthening the baht.

[jacko45k]

13 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

42.5 is not so bad.

Well below the peak early in the year of about 45.

[Bangkok Barry]

1 hour ago, HuskerDo2 said:

The dollar really only weakened against the baht in the last 10 days or so. Inflation in the US is off the charts but beginning to be reined in especially in housing and rates. Food costs are off the charts. Most are paying 20 - 30% more than last year. The stats the govt uses may be tainted as I have real-life proof that food inflation is far higher than reported in the US. 

 

It's great that inflation has remained low in Thailand. I also find it poetic justice that the Chinese continue to keep millions locked in their homes to address Covid while the rest of the world is moving along, especially since Covid began in China and they tried to cover it all up. So sad, too bad. 

Many of the basic items I buy have increased by up to 100% in the past year. Pork, chicken, potatoes, butter. Of course, it doesn't help that well over 80% of the supermarkets are now owned by the same company, which the Monopolies Office declared wasn't a monopoly because - well, you know.

[HappyExpat57]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Likely more about the softening of the dollar. Thailand's economy is doing anything but roaring back. However, inflation is lower than in the US and Europe where prices are soaring. 

And corporate profits are soaring as well at record levels. Yay unbridled capitalism, kick the people down when they're just getting back on their feet.

[crazykopite]

What a load of BS the baht remains the same the $ has weakened very misleading headline 

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, crazykopite said:

What a load of BS the baht remains the same the $ has weakened very misleading headline 

Relative to what? Not saying ur wrong......

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, crazykopite said:

What a load of BS the baht remains the same the $ has weakened very misleading headline 

Down 2 baht per USD in just a few weeks......

[jaywalker2]

2 hours ago, HuskerDo2 said:

The dollar really only weakened against the baht in the last 10 days or so. Inflation in the US is off the charts but beginning to be reined in especially in housing and rates. Food costs are off the charts. Most are paying 20 - 30% more than last year. The stats the govt uses may be tainted as I have real-life proof that food inflation is far higher than reported in the US. 

 

It's great that inflation has remained low in Thailand. I also find it poetic justice that the Chinese continue to keep millions locked in their homes to address Covid while the rest of the world is moving along, especially since Covid began in China and they tried to cover it all up. So sad, too bad. 

Has inflation remained low? Food prices have soared and the rent demanded for vacant condos seems to have exceeded precovid levels. Am I imagining all of this?

[edwinchester]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

42.5 is not so bad.

Considering it was at 55 before the Brexit debacle and 72 when I first arrived on these shores it ain't exactly good is it?

[jacko45k]

Just now, jaywalker2 said:

Has inflation remained low? Food prices have soared and the rent demanded for vacant condos seems to have exceeded precovid levels. Am I imagining all of this?

You are not wrong wrt food prices... 

[thesetat]

2 hours ago, HuskerDo2 said:

The dollar really only weakened against the baht in the last 10 days or so. Inflation in the US is off the charts but beginning to be reined in especially in housing and rates. Food costs are off the charts. Most are paying 20 - 30% more than last year. The stats the govt uses may be tainted as I have real-life proof that food inflation is far higher than reported in the US. 

 

It's great that inflation has remained low in Thailand. I also find it poetic justice that the Chinese continue to keep millions locked in their homes to address Covid while the rest of the world is moving along, especially since Covid began in China and they tried to cover it all up. So sad, too bad. 

i am told by the social security that the cost of living index for retirees will get a boost in their income from the USA for a whopping 8.9% in January. The most increase ever. I do not believe that Thailands baht value can increase so much so rapidly without some sort of manipulation.. It is not normal for sure to have such a large change so quickly and it was ordered by the PM to do something to increase the value of the baht last month. The comment about China is bulls__t because they are still locking down many places in cities. My friend there has been in lockdown for a couple weeks already just because someone in their neighborhood was tested positive for covid. Also, anyone who travels into China is faced with 5 days quarantine at their government centers and then home self isolation. This was in the news last week. Who would take a week holiday only to be quarantined for another week or 2 returning home? 

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, thesetat said:

i am told by the social security that the cost of living index for retirees will get a boost in their income from the USA for a whopping 8.9% in January. The most increase ever. I do not believe that Thailands baht value can increase so much so rapidly without some sort of manipulation.. It is not normal for sure to have such a large change so quickly and it was ordered by the PM to do something to increase the value of the baht last month. The comment about China is bulls__t because they are still locking down many places in cities. My friend there has been in lockdown for a couple weeks already just because someone in their neighborhood was tested positive for covid. Also, anyone who travels into China is faced with 5 days quarantine at their government centers and then home self isolation. This was in the news last week. Who would take a week holiday only to be quarantined for another week or 2 returning home? 

China did not reduce its Covid-19 response they just changed some things about it that still makes it a Zero Covid policy and easier for them to lock things down. They did cut time for quarantine down to 5 days, but it is still a Zero covid policy. Some folks think this is allowing for international travel....sigh.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-covid-policy-how-measures-have-changed-2022-11-11/

 

Yet cases are still rising.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-covid-cases-rise-record-daily-numbers-seen-beijing-other-cities-2022-11-13/

 

So how this can make the baht stronger is a mystery to me.

 

[HuskerDo2]

Just now, thesetat said:

i am told by the social security that the cost of living index for retirees will get a boost in their income from the USA for a whopping 8.9% in January. The most increase ever. I do not believe that Thailands baht value can increase so much so rapidly without some sort of manipulation.. It is not normal for sure to have such a large change so quickly and it was ordered by the PM to do something to increase the value of the baht last month. The comment about China is bulls__t because they are still locking down many places in cities. My friend there has been in lockdown for a couple weeks already just because someone in their neighborhood was tested positive for covid. Also, anyone who travels into China is faced with 5 days quarantine at their government centers and then home self isolation. This was in the news last week. Who would take a week holiday only to be quarantined for another week or 2 returning home? 

You misread my comment. I said the Chinese ARE still locking down millions as you agree with.

 

The actual increase in SS is 8.7%. It's not the biggest increase ever. Back in 1980 it rose 14.3% followed by 11.2% the following year. I actually had CD's that were pulling in over 18% back then. I should have loaded up on annuities but I was clueless about them and far too young.

[HuskerDo2]

Just now, jaywalker2 said:

Has inflation remained low? Food prices have soared and the rent demanded for vacant condos seems to have exceeded precovid levels. Am I imagining all of this?

No, you aren't imagining it. Rents are ridiculous in many places. It's beginning to stabilize tho.

[Henryford]

5 hours ago, madmitch said:

It is not a soaring baht, it's a weakening dollar - no surprise considering the gains the dollar has made this year!

 

All major currencies have made gains against the dollar during this time. In the past month the baht is weaker against the GBP and almost the same against the Euro.

 

It does appear that Thai financiers only seem to think there are only two currencies in the world!

No it's not, virtually every currency has fallen against the baht over recent weeks, the Pound, Euro, Aussie Dollar, even the Rupee.

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, jaywalker2 said:

Has inflation remained low? Food prices have soared and the rent demanded for vacant condos seems to have exceeded precovid levels. Am I imagining all of this?

There also seems to be a massive shift by the banks to offer Loans against property, in order that potential investors in the Country have the rosy picture.

In my location, the Builders cannot build fast enough, and I have personally witnessed 4 Houses occupied in the last week alone in a small development.

Its almost as if the banks with lined up buyers, are buying the properties from Developers, and giving them a modest profit on their builds, and then become the seller.

Even pre Covid and the massive Chinese invasion, I have never witnessed property selling like this before.

I dont know !, it all seems a bit " artificial "

With only 34 % of the huge Thai household debt of over 90 % of GDP, attributed to property Loans , and the remaining 66 % assigned to Credit Card, Personal and Vehicle loans, the country is heading toward a massive default of some kind.

Property Loans are a good asset Loan for the Banks to hold,( if the asset is correctly valued ) whereas the others are all bad asset Loans, and this will weigh upon the Country heavily going into next Year, when so many Countries are facing Recession and shrinking Economies. Economies upon which Thailand is dependent for Exports and Tourism, both of which IMHO will both see sharp declines in 2023/24

 

[sandyf]

47 minutes ago, HuskerDo2 said:

No, you aren't imagining it. Rents are ridiculous in many places. It's beginning to stabilize tho.

My rent hasn't gone up, but that would be the penalty of stupidity.

What the self appointed gurus said when I built my house in 2009.

[Will B Good]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

My rent hasn't gone up, but that would be the penalty of stupidity.

What the self appointed gurus said when I built my house in 2009.

$1000 Invested In This Stock 13 Years Ago Would Be Worth $7,700 Today....how does your house price compare?

[Mickeymaus]

There are many big price increases in Thailand but there is no government approved bigger inflation...

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, madmitch said:

It does appear that Thai financiers only seem to think there are only two currencies in the world!

Baht and Yuan?

[kingstonkid]

inflation is in a lul. Wait untill it gets cold out and watch things get real interesting in europe and the states.