As election draws near, dissolution rumors grow

[Mavideol]

2 minutes ago, BenStark said:

You do realize that since they are now 2 independent parties, each of them needs only half of those 126 MP's?

why's that, each independent party (should) needs 251 they are opposing parties thus become independent therefore same requirements, MFP and Peu Thai are independent parties and they need 251, I know this is Thailand but the election law should be or is the same for any independent party.... but I could be wrong

[BenStark]

Just now, MrMojoRisin said:

Mate, they could 50 independent parties and they won’t come close to 126. Current polls indicate PT and MF will win a combined 300+ constituency seats and 70% of the party list seats.

 

The United Thai Nation Party – whose candidate for premier is incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha– is expected to win only seven of the 400 constituency seats.

The ruling Palang Pracharath Party will fare even worse, the poll found. It is expected to win only five constituency seats. Another coalition member, Chart Thai Pattana, is forecast to win a mere four seats.

Mate, point are given at the finish

[MrMojoRisin]

Just now, BenStark said:

Mate, point are given at the finish

Many, many games are over before half time - this is one such instance.

 

I bet you’re not putting your money where your mouth is.

[BenStark]

Just now, Mavideol said:

why's that, each independent party (should) needs 251 they are opposing parties thus become independent therefore same requirements, MFP and Peu Thai are independent parties and they need 251, I know this is Thailand but the election law should be or is the same for any independent party.... but I could be wrong

Because the senators, appointed by the 2 P's have 250 votes, and while they all went to Prayuth during the previous election, since he was the default choice, they will now be split between the two.

 

My money is on that it is Prawit's turn to be PM, unless the weed constructor pays them off enough, so he gets first seat at the trough

[BenStark]

3 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Many, many games are over before half time - this is one such instance.

 

I bet you’re not putting your money where your mouth is.

I, same as every other foreigner in this country, have no money in this game, I only observe with eyes wide open and brain engaged

[kingstonkid]

7 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

It does'nt really surprise me, the current lot will do anything to cling onto power.

The problem is that they would not have the power.  Dissolution of a party will not get them power.  They need to remove all the members of the party.  

If party a wins 45% and party b wins 20% but party c with 10%wins the pm race and gets a and b disolved there is still 65% of the members sitting as independent until newparty names and e created.

 

Once new names and parties are created it is bye bye c

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

I don't think this should be trivialized. 

It doesn't affect us, I doubt they will make any political progress whoever is in control, their main problem is corruption in local government more so than in national government and here the main damage to the population is done but really peoples lives don't change much after an election.

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

It may be a lot worse. I don't think trivializing is something to do. If this really kicks off people will die and this country will be in turmoil. It's up to Prayut. Will he accept the will of the people?

I don't think anything will kick off. what did all the red and yellow shirt riots bring them ? nothing, one would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh at their naive enthusiasm knowing that politicians don't matter, power lies with the army and the rich establishment groups, they are the puppet masters and they are difficult to get rid of as Myanmar well knows (and the UK come to think of it)

[MikeN]

34 minutes ago, BenStark said:

You do realize that since they are now 2 independent parties, each of them needs only half of those 126 MP's?

you do realize that the house of Representatives has 500 members....100 list MPs and 400 constituency members. By the most recent polls PT and MFP are going to get around 2 thirds of the list MPs, which leaves the PPRP, UTN, democrats, BJT and other minor parties to fight over the scraps. PPRP and UTN will be lucky to get 15 between them. where are they going to win over 110 constituency seats ? Not the north (Shinawatra stronghold), not Issan (PT territory except for Buriram..Anutins home ground), not Bangkok (democrats and Move Forward).

Even if they get your 126 MPs that won't get them government, perhaps you are thinking of the Prime Minister vote with the 250 senators. It would n't be a unanimous vote for Prayut this time, their vote will be split between P1 and P2 (and perhaps others when senators see the writing on the wall). Even if they did do a deal and voted 100% for either of them to get 376 votes, to go against a landslide vote for the pro democracy parties in the House of Reps would be asking for trouble this time

[KhunBENQ]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I understand your dislike for PT but all parties here in Thailand are corrupt in one way or another. 

If you remove all criminals from the political caste many seats empty.

 

If a fake election is hold, it's time to consider/rethink international relations with this country.

[herfiehandbag]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Do you think voting for a megalomaniac general is better? One who changed the constitution to remain in power? One who stacked the senate by buying off his military croneys is better? A person who dissolves oppostion parties? A person who may be behind the disappearances of opposition individuals? This guy is hated by everybody except his moron conservative fanboys. Are you're one of them? Or am I wrong and you think change is needed? A pitiful confused or sad anonomized emoji won't do. Be brave and tell us all by responding to my post. No deflection that Thaksin is a criminal tell us all what you think about Prayut.

Well of course he does, after all the reds set fire to his bus stop!

 

Anyway, voting matters not one jot to him, if anything has become clear over the last few years it is the utter contempt he has for democracy and the electorates expressed decision!

Edited May 5, 2023 by herfiehandbag

[BenStark]

4 minutes ago, MikeN said:

perhaps you are thinking of the Prime Minister vote with the 250 senators. It would n't be a unanimous vote for Prayut this time, their vote will be split between P1 and P2 (and perhaps others when senators see the writing on the wall). Even if they did do a deal and voted 100% for either of them to get 376 votes, to go against a landslide vote for the pro democracy parties in the House of Reps would be asking for trouble this time

I thought it was obvious from my comments that this is exactly what I'm thinking about.

 

As far as I understand the system, they don't need to vote unanimous for one, they just can vote for both, and they form a coalition

[dinsdale]

40 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

I don't think anything will kick off. what did all the red and yellow shirt riots bring them ? nothing, one would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh at their naive enthusiasm knowing that politicians don't matter, power lies with the army and the rich establishment groups, they are the puppet masters and they are difficult to get rid of as Myanmar well knows (and the UK come to think of it)

Times have changed. I have now had chats with several Thai friends today. If Prayut elects himself back in via his paid off lackeys expect this country to errupt. I get the feeling that some on here just don't know how dangerous these people are and how much the people hate them or just don't care or think about the possibilities. The possibility of a revolution be it a peoples revolution or an armed uprising is a real. Prayut etc. (I say etc because best not to mention others) know this. This country is on the brink. This election may be the biggest turning point in Thailand's history.

Edited May 5, 2023 by dinsdale

[billd766]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

It may be a lot worse. I don't think trivializing is something to do. If this really kicks off people will die and this country will be in turmoil. It's up to Prayut. Will he accept the will of the people?

He hasn't accepted the will of the Thai people for nearly 9 years.

 

Why would he change now?

[Thingamabob]

Hopefully whoever comes out on top in the forthcoming election will keep a middle road between Western and Chinese influence, unlike the current Thai government which appears to be run by Peking.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, BenStark said:

You do realize that since they are now 2 independent parties, each of them needs only half of those 126 MP's?

You do realise that both of them are detested and it is likely that the only votes they will get are from the yellow shirts and the rabid royalists.

 

Many of them have died off in the last 4 years.

 

Meanwhile there are 6 million younger voters who were disenfranchised at the last election and quite a few more new younger voters have come along. One of whom is my 18 year old son.

[billd766]

1 hour ago, BenStark said:

Mate, point are given at the finish

Is that before or after the cheating begins?

[herfiehandbag]

1 hour ago, kingstonkid said:

The problem is that they would not have the power.  Dissolution of a party will not get them power.  They need to remove all the members of the party.  

If party a wins 45% and party b wins 20% but party c with 10%wins the pm race and gets a and b disolved there is still 65% of the members sitting as independent until newparty names and e created.

 

Once new names and parties are created it is bye bye c

If you look closely at the rules governing creating and starting new political parties, tucked away deep in the 2017 constitution, you will see that the ultimate arbiter as to whether a party an be formed or not is the Electoral Commission. Not exactly a shining beacon of political impartiality!

 

If the establishment dissolve these two parties it is very likely to end up being resolved on the streets.

 

The Thai Army need to get cracking welding bedsteads to their new Strikers!

Edited May 5, 2023 by herfiehandbag

[dinsdale]

17 minutes ago, billd766 said:

He hasn't accepted the will of the Thai people for nearly 9 years.

 

Why would he change now?

I doubt he will and he has backing at the highest level.

[soalbundy]

21 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Times have changed. I have now had chats with several Thai friends today. If Prayut elects himself back in via his paid off lackeys expect this country to errupt. I get the feeling that some on here just don't know how dangerous these people are and how much the people hate them or just don't care or think about the possibilities. The possibility of a revolution be it a peoples revolution or an armed uprising is a real. Prayut etc. (I say etc because best not to mention others) know this. This country is on the brink. This election may be the biggest turning point in Thailand's history.

Well I live in 'red country' the people in my village will vote for who pays the most, no elevated moral convictions here. Lowering the cost of electricity or raising the price that the government pays for rice paddy is all it would take for victory. Prayut can go or stay it makes no difference, we all know who is really in control, political parties are the necessary cosmetics to give a semblance of democracy. Things would have to get really bad for society in order for pressure to grow, let's face it Thais by and large have a reasonable standard of living compared to some of their neighbours. When I first came to this farming village 18 years ago most houses were wooden houses on stilts, now there are mostly brick built bungalows with many two story houses. The nearby market town has a Tesco filled with Thai customers, Surin 50 km away has a 'Big C' whose variety of goods rival any western supermarket and are full of Thai customers, no food banks here. I don't smell anarchy in the air. It's maybe different in Bangkok which is more sophisticated but even there you will only get token resistance to the status quo. The Romans knew this, keep them happy with bread and circus.

[Adumbration]

I told you all and you laughed at me.

 

Anutin will be the next PM.

 

It has already been decided by the person in charge.

[billd766]

35 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I doubt he will and he has backing at the highest level.

I am not too sure of that any more.

 

9 years ago and even 4 years ago probably.

 

Nowadays he should keep a good lookout for a bus, in case he gets thrown under it.

[dinsdale]

25 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Well I live in 'red country' the people in my village will vote for who pays the most, no elevated moral convictions here. Lowering the cost of electricity or raising the price that the government pays for rice paddy is all it would take for victory. Prayut can go or stay it makes no difference, we all know who is really in control, political parties are the necessary cosmetics to give a semblance of democracy. Things would have to get really bad for society in order for pressure to grow, let's face it Thais by and large have a reasonable standard of living compared to some of their neighbours. When I first came to this farming village 18 years ago most houses were wooden houses on stilts, now there are mostly brick built bungalows with many two story houses. The nearby market town has a Tesco filled with Thai customers, Surin 50 km away has a 'Big C' whose variety of goods rival any western supermarket and are full of Thai customers, no food banks here. I don't smell anarchy in the air. It's maybe different in Bangkok which is more sophisticated but even there you will only get token resistance to the status quo. The Romans knew this, keep them happy with bread and circus.

I smell ChatGPT. 

"a 'Big C' whose variety of goods rival any western supermarket and are full of Thai customers,"

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

It doesn't affect us, I doubt they will make any political progress whoever is in control, their main problem is corruption in local government more so than in national government and here the main damage to the population is done but really peoples lives don't change much after an election.

Thai politics is not about public service.  It is about dividing up the spoils.  Always has been and always will be.

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

are unacceptable to the conservative forces inside the courts and the establishment.

Is this an admission that the "courts" are politically biased when they should be nonpoltical and independent of the outside "conservative forces?" 

As for being unacceptable to the "establishment," Isn't that an election issue for the electorate to decide?

[zzaa09]

What is truly needed is a good old fashioned civilising mission from the West.

That'll straightened 'em out.

 

Despotic Oriental savages.

[zzaa09]

2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

If you look closely at the rules governing creating and starting new political parties, tucked away deep in the 2017 constitution, you will see that the ultimate arbiter as to whether a party an be formed or not is the Electoral Commission. Not exactly a shining beacon of political impartiality!

 

If the establishment dissolve these two parties it is very likely to end up being resolved on the streets.

 

The Thai Army need to get cracking welding bedsteads to their new Strikers!

As history as shown......mass street demonstrations/protest prove little to nothing.

An alternative strategy might be in the fold. 

[ikke1959]

In 1789 they solved the problems in a country...

[Wongkitlo]

3 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

If you look closely at the rules governing creating and starting new political parties, tucked away deep in the 2017 constitution, you will see that the ultimate arbiter as to whether a party an be formed or not is the Electoral Commission. Not exactly a shining beacon of political impartiality!

 

If the establishment dissolve these two parties it is very likely to end up being resolved on the streets.

 

The Thai Army need to get cracking welding bedsteads to their new Strikers!

Remember that Mitsubishi make the tanks with the tear gas. Would never buy anything from them after realizing that.

[Sunderland]

6 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

You make the mistake that many make. If A is bad then B must be good.

My opinion is: A is very bad and B is bad and it would be great for Thailand if people would vote for C or D. But for whatever reason many want to vote again for A because they don't like B.

One big difference between Thaksin and Prayut is that Thaksin was very obvious corrupt and he was already convicted several times to jail. He is officially a fugitive criminal.

With Prayut people accuse him of doing things against the law but he is no convicted criminal and I am not aware of any ongoing case against him. So if people think Prayut is guilty then bring the evidence and convict him.

And in the meantime, look for honest competent people and vote for them to run Thailand. 

Good luck with that ... cough, cough, splutter, splutter.