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Move Forward Scores Surprise Victory; Pita To Become PM


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Posted
3 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

I really don’t think that is going to happen…and if we do indeed want some level of peace and stability in the country, I suggest it is better to just reconcile and “move forward”.

 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Not sure about that. This result is probably the best scenario for Thaksin. His party is crucial in forming a governing coalition so there is power there whilst he will be able to take a back seat as Move Forward push more controversial reforms through parliament. Thaksin would never take the lead on issues such as lese majeste and military reform but his support will be required for Pita to get these changes legislated. PT ruling in their own right would be fraught with danger, this outcome appears that Thaksin will be able to have his cake and eat it. He should be home this year. The end of the Thaksin era is here as  Move Forward are only going to get stronger and stronger as they implement their policies and the Thai demography continues to change in the favour. What of the conservative side from here on in now that they can no longer rely on coups to gain power? You would think it is a long and barren road ahead for them.

All this aside, let's hope something decent comes outta all of this c***. 

Hoping for the best.

We forget, it's about the benefit of the commons. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, bannork said:

Jim, your man in the sand could still come home if PT team up with Bhumjai Thai and all the other conservative losers. 

Of course this would infuriate the entire middle and working class Thais who want reform in Thailand.

This is a test for PT. Do they genuinely want to change Thailand or will they stick to the fading brand of Thaksin?

I can't see your hero coming back by July, by the way. 

PT are the only party that want him back and they fell far short of the landslide they wanted.

Thaksin is 'out here on the perimeter (where ) there are no stars.'

 

Far from being my hero, Thaksin was always a necessary stepping stone from military run Thailand to a Thailand where a party such as Move Forward can win an election. No Thaksin means there would never be a Move Forward. He will make it home and he will fade away from Thai politics. All in all, the juice was worth the squeeze.

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Posted
33 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

I agree if they were to pull all the tricks in order to block MF+PT to form a proper government then it would probably get ugly. But it doesn't have to be black and white. The senate holds a lot of power. They could extract concessions from the house.

 

For example the topic of mandatory conscription. MF said they want to abolish it. For that, they have to pass a law through the house. But the senate which is controlled by the military has to approve it. So that wont happen. But then what?

 

It's an interesting situation because afaik the house can't push changes to the constituion which enshrines the power of the senate. And because the senate is not elected by the voters, the voters can never push for a change to the current system unless they find a way to get senators on their side.

The military appoint the Senate

The government appoint the military leadership.

Hmm?

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Posted
4 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

And how would they do that with the military and courts still holding sway?

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Posted
1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Don't count your chickens yet........????

Right. We've been in this movie before. At least Thaksin's lot seem to be a spent force, and these western worshipping lefties that have replaced them will soon find out that they won't be able to keep their promises. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Gandtee said:

And how would they do that with the military and courts still holding sway?

Precisely. They'll last a few months, just like those who went before them. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Far from being my hero, Thaksin was always a necessary stepping stone from military run Thailand to a Thailand where a party such as Move Forward can win an election. No Thaksin means there would never be a Move Forward. He will make it home and he will fade away from Thai politics. All in all, the juice was worth the squeeze.

Those particular stepping stones require replacing with new stones.

 

....btw, I too can envision old Takky returning very soon and not involving himself directly into the political machine. 

Advising or maintaining support would be more likely the direction. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Spock said:

So marijuana stays or goes>? If the latter, when?

My current read (pre-election, I'll stick with it)

 

re-listing as a narcotic as soon as a new MoPH Minister is appointed: 10%

 

some new, minor regulations pending the CCA and the formation of the Cannabis Control Board: 50%

 

No changes until the CCA is gazetted: 40%

 

The CCA could contain many new restrictions including medical only (supervised by DTAM). Impossible to predict at this point

 

 

 

One major question is if BJT will join MVF and PTP in a coalition government.

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Posted
4 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

The 250 seat military appointed Senate might think so.

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Posted
4 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

It did last time with Prayuth.

majority of both houses elect the PM and the senate is stacked with junta appointed cronies and cohorts.

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Posted

A post containing copyrighted graphs from Reuters has been removed as there was no supporting link provided:

 

27. You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Only post a link, the headline and three sentences from the article. Content in the public domain is limited to the same restrictions.

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