Baht falls to 7-month low as unease grows over chances of Pita Limjaroenrat being elected as PM

[webfact]

On Wednesday evening, the Move Forward Party proposed a meeting on July 2nd between itself and the Pheu Thai Party to discuss outstanding issues between the two main partners of the proposed eight-party coalition government expected to support the Move Forward Party leader Mr Pita Limjaroenrat as Thailand’s next Prime Minister. However, a rift over the position of House Speaker and dogged opposition from conservative forces, not least within the junta-appointed Thai Senate, threaten to derail a smooth transition to a new government when parliament in a joint session meets on July 13th to elect a prime minister. The financial markets are watching. On Wednesday, the baht hit a seven-month low against the US dollar.

Financial markets begin to strike a sour note as political squabbling threatens the prospect of a smooth transition to a new government next month with a rift opened between Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties over the House Speaker position and dogged opposition from conservatives to the election of Mr Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister on July 13th next. 

The Thai baht fell to a seven month low against the US dollar on Wednesday as a rift began to appear within the proposed eight-party coalition between the Move Forward Party and the Pheu Thai Party while political forces hostile to the elevation of 43-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat appeared to quicken in recent days with calls for the prospective prime minister to face scrutiny by the Constitutional Court ahead of an expected vote to elect a new government leader due to come before a joint session of parliament on July 13th next.

 

On Wednesday, the Move Forward Party announced that it would meet with the Pheu Thai Party on July 2nd next, the day before parliament opens to address the key issue of who should be the next House Speaker.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

 

#news

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/06/28/baht-falls-as-political-uncertainty-grows-election-pita-limjaroenrat-pm/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2023-06-29

 

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[flyingtlger]

Hope it falls to 40BT to the dollar.......  

[Jonathan Swift]

41 minutes ago, flyingtlger said:

Hope it falls to 40BT to the dollar.......  

Maybe but unlikely. Highest it's been in two years is 38. It's been at 34 most of the year. But what these people aren't talking about is that the favorable exchange rate means more foreign money pours in. 

[Jonathan Swift]

Why is this writer tying fluctuations in the exchange rate to the political squabbling? Nonsense. Rates rise and fall for many reasons, but petty local politics is not one of them. Not unless an all out revolution occurs. Does Joseph O'connor fancy himself an economist? What's his agenda? 

[Jonathan Swift]

Favorable exchange for the dollar means more dollars will be spent in Thailand, so what's the problem? 

[FarangJon]

I love it. Its time to change Euro on wise to baht.

[TheAppletons]

Just now, Jonathan Swift said:

Favorable exchange for the dollar means more dollars will be spent in Thailand, so what's the problem? 

Cost of fuel.  Oil/gas are imported so weaker baht translates into higher energy costs.

[daejung]

3 minutes ago, FarangJon said:

I love it. Its time to change Euro on wise to baht.

Yes but how long will it last ?

[Zack61]

2 minutes ago, daejung said:

Yes but how long will it last ?

Strike while the iron is hot

[hioctane]

11 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said:

Why is this writer tying fluctuations in the exchange rate to the political squabbling? Nonsense. Rates rise and fall for many reasons, but petty local politics is not one of them. Not unless an all out revolution occurs. Does Joseph O'connor fancy himself an economist? What's his agenda? 

Of course it does. Elections, natural disasters, and PM is a pretty big position.

[hioctane]

12 minutes ago, FarangJon said:

I love it. Its time to change Euro on wise to baht.

I just did. Just in time for my holiday.

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The Thai baht fell to a seven month low against the US dollar on Wednesday as a rift began to appear within the proposed eight-party coalition between the Move Forward Party and the Pheu Thai Party while political forces hostile to the elevation of 43-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat appeared to quicken in recent days with calls for the prospective prime minister to face scrutiny by the Constitutional Court ahead of an expected vote to elect a new government leader due to come before a joint session of parliament on July 13th next.

I wonder which foot they will shoot this time.. the left or the right?

Maybe both.

[Ben Zioner]

1 hour ago, TheAppletons said:

Cost of fuel.  Oil/gas are imported so weaker baht translates into higher energy costs.

And..

https://aseannow.com/topic/1299213-auction-company-gears-up-for-jump-in-seized-vehicles-amid-spike-in-defaults/

[Jonathan Swift]

1 hour ago, TheAppletons said:

Cost of fuel.  Oil/gas are imported so weaker baht translates into higher energy costs.

I get that, but tourism is so often waved around as the major Thai industry yet the impact of the likelihood of more foreign money spent in Thailand as a result seems to be being ignored. An economist I'm not, these are my limited observations. 10 years ago the baht was the same, about 35/dollar, went down to 29 for a while and now it's back up. The cost of oil had been quite low in the US, I don't know about here, and now it has risen but not overly so. To me these seem like normal market fluctuations. I would think that other economic problems such as loss of revenue due to Covid, loss of jobs,  and any ensuing problems with inflation would be in and of themselves more significant that the exchange rate. But again, these are the observations of an expat with a limited scope of 10 years here. But all of that windfall revenue from cannabis sales ought to fix everything, right? 

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, daejung said:

Yes but how long will it last ?

Perhaps that is why he feels the time is now!

[BritManToo]

I changed GBP at 45.1 yesterday.

Long may the unrest last!

[nobodysfriend]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

the proposed eight-party coalition government expected to support the Move Forward Party leader Mr Pita Limjaroenrat as Thailand’s next Prime Minister. However, a rift over the position of House Speaker and dogged opposition from conservative forces, not least within the junta-appointed Thai Senate, threaten to derail a smooth transition to a new government when parliament

They cannot get anything done properly ...

No other country I know creates so much confusion about election results .

Confusion in politics leads to confusion in the ' financial markets  ' .

The result is a feeling of insecurity that leads to a falling baht and stocks .

[jacko45k]

Just now, nobodysfriend said:

No other country I know creates so much confusion about election results .

Really....... I can think of one. 

[jaideedave]

27 minutes ago, nobodysfriend said:

They cannot get anything done properly ...

No other country I know creates so much confusion about election results .

Confusion in politics leads to confusion in the ' financial markets  ' .

The result is a feeling of insecurity that leads to a falling baht and stocks .

I've had a gut feeling all along the Mr Pita will not be the new PM...maybe I'm wrong but there's news every day of more opposition and Tony making noise in the background...wants to see his grandchildren,ya BS

[Darksidedude]

3 hours ago, Jonathan Swift said:

Maybe but unlikely. Highest it's been in two years is 38. It's been at 34 most of the year. But what these people aren't talking about is that the favorable exchange rate means more foreign money pours in. 

Agree 

[thailand49]

Everytime a report that baht too weak like the sun rise and set it starts to go down.  Last time it hit 36 same report slowly but surely it goes south.????

[Tropicalevo]

The political unrest is not Pita's fault.

It is the fault of the crooks that are frightened that he will be PM.

They will do anything to stop him.

[BKKBike09]

54 minutes ago, Captain Monday said:

There was no problem with US Presidential election results in 2020 other than  lies and false narratives pushed by demagogues/ propaganda sites,  and the resultant insurrection.

Come now. Who said this was about The Orange One? What about Bush vs Gore in 2000, an election that Gore likely won, but which had the Supreme Court decide (just) that it was Bush. 

 

Back on topic - looking more and more like Pita is going to be left out in the cold, so baht may weaken further.

[Cadan]

On 4/20/2023 at 4:42 AM, Bim Smith said:

"You can complete the 90-day reporting within 14 days before or up to seven days after".

 

Has anyone tried online reporting. I want to try it for the first time next month and always thought it was 7 days before due date and 7 days after. Can anyone confirm? Thank you 

 

22 hours ago, h90 said:

the Russian weaponsdealer many years...maybe 20, very upset explained in an interview the commission.

For civilian airplanes it is always 5 and 7 % for the decision maker. 5 and 7 is Boeing and Airbus, I can not remember which was the 7 and which the 5%.

(for military things it is 10%) For the military he pointed out that it is a kind of standard rate that is always payed, no matter what countries are buyer or seller....

Getting a 5% of 30 airplanes is a nice amount of money even if you need to share it.

 

1 hour ago, edwinchester said:

Thai bank lending is a mess. Wifey and I asked for a loan to buy a new car recently. I can get a better rate on my savings elsewhere than the loan rate so it makes sense. My pension is twice the married man's as demanded by Immigration and wifey has a million bht deposited at the bank. We were turned down. One of wifeys friends recently got a loan on a new pick-up. They’re a teaching asst earning 9k a month and their repayments are 7k a month......insane.

Country of no logic can be applied. I always tell visitors / friends everything works the other way around. What’s impossible back home easy here and vice versa ????????

[actonion]

All this B.S. about closing bars to make sure everyone is sober  in time for elections, they never listen to the peoples vote, so long  winded about any and every thing they do..

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I changed GBP at 45.1 yesterday.

Long may the unrest last!

Dropped back below 45 today, looks like the fall in the baht has been postponed.

[Mr Dome]

I exchanged € at 38.35 last week, now it's at 38.80, so a rather small difference only. 

 

Was able to exchange $ twice last year when it hit 38.05 - don't think we'll see that again for quite some time (I hope I'm wrong).

[h90]

10 minutes ago, actonion said:

All this B.S. about closing bars to make sure everyone is sober  in time for elections, they never listen to the peoples vote, so long  winded about any and every thing they do..

Preventing that some local politician give out some booze in front of the election tent....

It is more logic than the daily no booze times.

[mikebell]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I changed GBP at 45.1 yesterday.

Long may the unrest last!

I did the same a month back when it was 42!  Damn; my timing has never been good!

[Joseph98765]

I love Pita????...keep going 40b x dollar!!