Super Deal Worked Out In Hong Kong: Chuwit

[sscc]

What is the deal ?     Who is paying Whom for What ? 

Is Thaksin in HK ?   I don't believe it a bit as  HK public recognized him and put news about him immediately.   ( HK is so small,  most difficult hiding ) 

Just nonsense after all. 

[OneMoreFarang]

3 hours ago, ignore it said:

So Chuwit is now "Former MP and graft-buster"

 

What happened to "Former Massage Parlor godfather and convicted criminal"?

 

We all are former something. 

 

And with Chuwit: I think we can trust him more than many other politicians who have not (yet) been convicted. 

[orchidfan]

29 minutes ago, sscc said:

What is the deal ?     Who is paying Whom for What ? 

Is Thaksin in HK ?   I don't believe it a bit as  HK public recognized him and put news about him immediately.   ( HK is so small,  most difficult hiding ) 

Just nonsense after all. 

People here (I'm in HK at the moment ) might have recognized  him 17yrs ago, but not so sure now.

And most folks here not really interested in Thai politics.

 

But I think that I could hunker down in the Peninsula hotel for a few days!!.

[Brickleberry]

4 hours ago, hotchilli said:

My monies on Anutin.. sad but there it is.

How? His party holds 71 seats. The only way he can come to power, and the only way the conservatives can continue to rule this country, is if the MFP + PTP break away from each other. 

 

Pita + Thaksin don't seem to realize that they have a super majority in parliament and can frustrate the conservatives into capitulating. If the two parties stick together, which is what the electorate want, then they will succeed.

 

In the unlikely event that the conservatives form a minority government, they won't be able to achieve anything because the MFP + PTP can vote 'no', call a 'no confidence' vote straight away and depose the conservative government. A simple majority vote would enable this scenario to take place, and a fresh election held within the next few months.

 

The only way they lose their chance to form the next government is if they work with the old government. Don't do it, stick together, and watch democracy flourish.

[bamnutsak]

This Chuwit Khlown has been strangely silent the past few months.

 

Now he's breaking a bit of news nearly everyone already knows about...that a deal has been made to submarine MFP, install a PTP-led "government" (with BJT/PPP/UTN) overseen by Thaksin, which will bolster defenses against progress and reforms, in exchange for a full pardon. Several high-profile 112 cases will be made, just to send a message. Things might actually be a bit worse than they were under the NCPO/Junta.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by bamnutsak

[bannork]

A formula I saw that Chuvit reckoned was durable was:

Pheu Thai 141

Bhumjaithai 71

Palang Pracharat 40

Chart Thai Pattana 10

Prachachat

Thai Sang Thai these 2 parties I can't remember if they were included or not 

Anyway, the above gives a total of 272. 

Of course we should remember these parties, especially Bhumjaithai, have many MPs under investigation for electoral offences which could mean yellow or red cards.

Apparently the deal depends on Thaksin being freed from jail. If he's not, the deal is off.

Isn't all this a blatant example of interference in political matters of a party by someone who holds no executive position or is perhaps not a member due to his criminal convictions 

Mr Ruangkrai, get down to the EC  immediately and demand the dissolution of PT.

 

 

[Toby1947]

5 hours ago, Kerryd said:

Can't say too much because Thailand has no "free speech" laws. Quite the opposite in fact. 

Even if you speak the truth about someone, backed up with facts and indisputable evidence, you can still be sued for defamation. That and the lese majesty laws have kept most of the rich from facing any real punishment for their deeds for decades.

And the mighty military government has done nothing to change that. Then again, by the time you reach General rank, you are more likely to be a part of the problem and not the solution to it so it pretty much was to be expected that they wouldn't actually change anything anyways.

Mighty Military? ????????????. Who've they even fought oh yes Laos and they lost that one. Biggest bunch of cowards on the planet 

[bradiston]

35 minutes ago, bannork said:

A formula I saw that Chuvit reckoned was durable was:

Pheu Thai 141

Bhumjaithai 71

Palang Pracharat 40

Chart Thai Pattana 10

Prachachat

Thai Sang Thai these 2 parties I can't remember if they were included or not 

Anyway, the above gives a total of 272. 

Of course we should remember these parties, especially Bhumjaithai, have many MPs under investigation for electoral offences which could mean yellow or red cards.

Apparently the deal depends on Thaksin being freed from jail. If he's not, the deal is off.

Isn't all this a blatant example of interference in political matters of a party by someone who holds no executive position or is perhaps not a member due to his criminal convictions 

Mr Ruangkrai, get down to the EC  immediately and demand the dissolution of PT.

 

 

I also can't quite figure out how a convicted felon like Tony can be associated in any way with the 2nd biggest party. Surely there are electoral laws? Does he donate? He definitely advises. Look what they did to Thanatorn and Future Forward. Totally destroyed them. But, Thanathorn is back, and very good luck to him. Good guy in my book.

[rwill]

6 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

7 hours ago, rwill said:

Looks like he is explaining that 88 is the next lottery number.

Is for me now❗????

I believe him...

[Toolong]

7 hours ago, Elkski said:

Sad situation in Thailand.   I hope more international condemnation comes 

'More'? Has there been any? (I'm not being sarcastic. Just that I haven't seen/read any. Maybe I'm not paying enough attention ????)

 

I respect your comment, Elkski, and indeed would hope the same thing, but gotta say, sadly, that imo the people who control this country don't give a fig about international condemnation and if they do react to it, it's only to accuse those being critical of foreign interference and 'proof' (????) that anti-govt supporters are being backed & financed by falang meddlers. 

[bannork]

56 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

The elite will never allow one of their own to go to prison because in the future it could happen them, the worst that could happen to Mr. T is a short term of house arrest until his royal pardon is issued as long as he is saying the right things. He knows the language the swamp speaks so he will be word perfect. Pita? Well he will speak Pita and will be pushed along the bench until he drops off unless he learns the rules of the swamp, then he will survive.....but ilk hahe wont be Pita anymore.

I respect your realism SB but I believe there has been a fundamental change in Thai society the last decade that is having an irreversible effect on Thai politics. 

As we all know, the ubiquitous, irreplaceable, reverential, charismatic force known as Father, and imbued in Thai life as long as anyone can remember, left some time ago.

At the same time we saw the emergence of a political party not actually run as the plaything of an oligarch. Okay Thanathorn was super rich but the executives were young professionals, intelligent and passionate about reforming Thailand. The same can't be said for Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, Chart Thai Pattana, all run by clans. Take those families out and the parties collapse. The inroads made into their fiefdoms by MF show their cracks and weakening of power 

My point is this social change, the desire for reform in Thailand is unstoppable and unless the traditional parties adapt, I can only see their voting base shrinking further and further 

Once MF or its inheritor obtains over 200 seats, I believe the authorities will have to yield. As Pita says, the future is theirs 

 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, Brickleberry said:

How? His party holds 71 seats. The only way he can come to power, and the only way the conservatives can continue to rule this country, is if the MFP + PTP break away from each other. 

Which is slowly unraveling as Pita canot move forward.

[soalbundy]

16 minutes ago, bannork said:

I respect your realism SB but I believe there has been a fundamental change in Thai society the last decade that is having an irreversible effect on Thai politics. 

As we all know, the ubiquitous, irreplaceable, reverential, charismatic force known as Father, and imbued in Thai life as long as anyone can remember, left some time ago.

At the same time we saw the emergence of a political party not actually run as the plaything of an oligarch. Okay Thanathorn was super rich but the executives were young professionals, intelligent and passionate about reforming Thailand. The same can't be said for Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, Chart Thai Pattana, all run by clans. Take those families out and the parties collapse. The inroads made into their fiefdoms by MF show their cracks and weakening of power 

My point is this social change, the desire for reform in Thailand is unstoppable and unless the traditional parties adapt, I can only see their voting base shrinking further and further 

Once MF or its inheritor obtains over 200 seats, I believe the authorities will have to yield. As Pita says, the future is theirs 

 

How far is this future away? I agree with you in principle but it would be naive to think political change has wings. Social justice is an evolving animal, it took Europe 200 years to get any semblance of social justice and it is still evolving. The establishment in all countries is still in power, governments are just the PR face of money and real power as Liz Truss found when the markets threw her out. A societies problems don't disappear with a change of government, they are handed on. A charismatic leader can jump start change but only with the help of the establishment and only if there is profit in it for them. Social unrest isn't profitable and a few inches are given to keep the money rolling but substantial change? I don't think so......billions of pounds for two aircraft carriers but no money for social housing or a failing health service, they don't bring in any profit, aircraft carriers on the other hand....The elite control the media with stories of 'reds under the bed' so they are needed, the homeless not so much.

[trainman34014]

7 hours ago, hotchilli said:

For about 5 minutes while they do nothing.

Or less than that if they get to eat shortly !

[anchadian]

Thai Enquirer

@ThaiEnquirer

 

Senator Gen. Lertrat Ratanavanich stated that the 8-party coalition would have enough votes for their PM nominee by collaborating with the Bhumjaithai Party and the Chart Thai Pattana Party, making additional votes from the senators unnecessary.

 

He said the senators' responsibility is to screen the PM nominee, not to be concerned about which coalition holds the majority in the lower house before voting for a premier.

 

He also said that while the senators don't wish to interfere in the voting for the prime minister, it is their duty to do so. However, if the MPs can secure enough votes independently, they can bypass the need for the senators' votes altogether.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1684840301956067328

 

[bradiston]

5 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Thai Enquirer

@ThaiEnquirer

 

Senator Gen. Lertrat Ratanavanich stated that the 8-party coalition would have enough votes for their PM nominee by collaborating with the Bhumjaithai Party and the Chart Thai Pattana Party, making additional votes from the senators unnecessary.

 

He said the senators' responsibility is to screen the PM nominee, not to be concerned about which coalition holds the majority in the lower house before voting for a premier.

 

He also said that while the senators don't wish to interfere in the voting for the prime minister, it is their duty to do so. However, if the MPs can secure enough votes independently, they can bypass the need for the senators' votes altogether.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1684840301956067328

 

Bumjaithai won't join a coalition with MFP. They're too ignorant to differentiate between some harmless and widely supported amendments to 112, and an all out toppling of the government.

[KhaoNiaw]

21 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Bumjaithai won't join a coalition with MFP. They're too ignorant to differentiate between some harmless and widely supported amendments to 112, and an all out toppling of the government.

But maybe MFP have agreed to vote for the PM candidate of Pheu Thai coalition that includes Bhumjaithai even if they're not part of it. With promises made for later. 

[rabas]

8 hours ago, ignore it said:

So Chuwit is now "Former MP and graft-buster"

 

What happened to "Former Massage Parlor godfather and convicted criminal"?

Former massage parlor godfather and convicted criminal Chuwit Kamolvisit has just reported on a meeting in Hong Hong outside the jurisdiction of the Kingdom of Thailand between banned political leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and fugitive convicted criminal ex-prime minster Thaksin Shinawatra to decide the next government of Thailand.

 

Not sure how it could be any clearer.

 

Edited July 28, 2023 by rabas

[ujayujay]

Depending on which coalition wins on Aug. 17th, Thaksin will either be acquitted of the allegations or face several years in prison in thailand! Does anyone think, he would come back on Aug. 10th if he didn't know exactly who's leading the next government????????????

[bradiston]

1 hour ago, KhaoNiaw said:

But maybe MFP have agreed to vote for the PM candidate of Pheu Thai coalition that includes Bhumjaithai even if they're not part of it. With promises made for later. 

Then the senate will reject it.

[KhaoNiaw]

1 hour ago, bradiston said:

Then the senate will reject it.

Not if MFP are not part of the coalition. A new coalition plus votes from MFP outside the coalition would mean that they'd need far fewer senate votes. Then if there are MPs defecting from Ruam Thai Sang Chat (as sounds quite likely) and maybe even from PPP to Bhumjaithai, it's even more likely there'll be enough senate votes to see it through. 

[zzaa09]

12 hours ago, Tom H said:

Amnesty/Pardon

 

More than likely.

The truer deal that's already been worked out. 

[bannork]

14 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

More than likely.

The truer deal that's already been worked out. 

The establishment working together secretly but visible.

This can only generate more disdain and hatred..

As so often, Dr Thitinan was so on the ball with his article today. 

[bamnutsak]

"Poof".

 

The sound of progress, freedom/rights, reform and economic balance vanishing for another decade or four.

 

 

 

 

[MrJ2U]

16 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Thanksin is a white collar criminal...with that said, "Crime pays in Thailand if you're well connected or rich enough"....

Sounds like the entire unelected senate.

 

..... Or practically anyone with a position of authority in Thailand.

 

A much larger crime overthrowing an elected government and disenfranchising millions of voters though. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by MrJ2U

[Yme]

The last time Thaksin relied on an undertaking that he would get a royal pardon Yingluck ended up getting tossed out of office and Bangkok burning. 

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

"Poof".

 

The sound of progress, freedom/rights, reform and economic balance vanishing for another decade or four.

 

 

 

 

This would apply to those who really don't understand the society but still imagine that they do....

[Puccini]

7 hours ago, bradiston said:

I also can't quite figure out how a convicted felon like Tony can be associated in any way with the 2nd biggest party. Surely there are electoral laws? Does he donate? He definitely advises. Look what they did to Thanatorn and Future Forward. Totally destroyed them. But, Thanathorn is back, and very good luck to him. Good guy in my book.

Whom do yo mean with "Tony"

[metisdead]

A post with comments toward the King has been removed:

 

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An unintelligible post with veiled references to a Thai politician has been removed.  Please spell people's names correctly. 

 

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[SunsetT]

19 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

The important parts are in the linked article.

 

Chuwit is in general well informed, let's look if what he says will happen. 

And then, let's look what happens if Thaksin comes back.

In the moment there is hope in Thailand for a brighter future. Will the future still be bright with the fugitive criminal returning?

And can anybody imagine Thaksin being quiet and just living the life of a grandfather?

I still hope he dies in the desert. 

Why? He is/was no more corrupt than the rest of the Thai system.