Thai baht instability rises due to political unrest

[snoop1130]

 

Political unrest is heightening baht oscillations against the US dollar, as Thailand finds itself without a stable government, the head of the Bank Thailand asserts.

 

This turbulence introduces a greater risk factor amongst investors who are observing the foreign exchange rate, particularly between the baht and the US dollar, in light of Thailand’s current political developments. Post Thailand’s General Election in May, political factions continue to bicker about the newly formed government.

 

Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, the central bank governor, at a seminar hosted by its southern region office yesterday, stated…

 

“Given these underlying risks and vulnerabilities, the baht has witnessed irregular movements against the dollar.

 

“The main factor driving the recent baht volatility is the movement of the US federal funds rate (the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve). However, domestic political uncertainty also plays a significant role, contributing to the pressure on the baht’s changing value against the dollar.”

 

Year-to-date, the baht has seen a depreciation of 9% against the US dollar, which surpasses the fluctuating value of the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, and the Philippine peso.

 

In the Asian continent, it is common for Japan’s yen and South Korea’s won to experience greater volatility against the greenback when compared to regional currencies.

 

Furthermore, the Chinese yuan also impacts the baht due to the significant business exposure between China and Thailand, spanning across sectors such as imports and exports, tourism and foreign direct investment, reports Bangkok Post.

Adding to this, Sethaput pointed out that the local gold trade in Thailand also influences baht movements.

 

By Alex Morgan

Caption: Photo courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Full Story: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/thai-baht-instability-rises-due-to-political-unrest

 

-- Thaiger 2023-08-17

 

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[Bim Smith]

In the long term hopefully Thailand's desire to join BRICS will see the demise of the greenback as the world's reserve currency in time. It's long overdue as the US neocons have weaponised there currency for decades. 

[kevin612]

With such high US interest rate, the baht is too darn strong, 1vs 34. this week 1vs 35. In my opinion, baht should be like 36 or 37, because when the us government lower the interest rate in the future, it’s gonna be 28-29 again. 

[pomchop]

Well here's a prediction for you....hope these folks are spot on but won't hold my breath

 

https://longforecast.com/usd-to-bht-today-forecast

[SiSePuede419]

You know what would stop political unrest?

 

Democracy.

 

Just saying. ????

[Skipalongcassidy]

6 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

You know what would stop political unrest?

 

Democracy.

 

Just saying. ????

You mean like UK or USA... 555

[BritScot]

11 minutes ago, Skipalongcassidy said:

You mean like UK or USA... 555

Closer that Thailand has been since Thaksin then stolen and then his sister and stolen and again stolen.

[RichardColeman]

Forecast I am seeing is 46 or 45.85 baht to the pound end of this month. Let's hope the political chaos continues all year if that is the case 

[spidermike007]

The goomnahs should not be surprised. You steal an election, thwart the will of the people, and pretend to be a democracy, and there will be repurcussions. The reality is, the baht was far too high anyway, and due for a correction. May it drop, and drop and drop. 

[sammieuk1]

Its Satang instability nothing else ????

[2baht]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

the baht

Crash and burn!

[Tom H]

It will fall if Anutin is 6 months in power is my prediction:). Before? Change money !

[MrJ2U]

The entire political system needs a "reset".

 

It just gets worse each succeeding coup.

 

The current unelected "Senate" is probably the place to start.  

 

A travesty! 

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“Given these underlying risks and vulnerabilities, the baht has witnessed irregular movements against the dollar.

The teflon baht fluctuates in percentages of a baht... never more, never less..
Amazing Thailand.

[gjoo888]

The weaker Baht is at least helping with inflation here. I think I can speak for most people who receive monthly income from overseas, we're not complaing. 

[praguecr]

3 hours ago, Bim Smith said:

In the long term hopefully Thailand's desire to join BRICS will see the demise of the greenback as the world's reserve currency in time. It's long overdue as the US neocons have weaponised there currency for decades. 

yeah sure. and what country should have the world reserve currency? China and the Yuan? Be careful what you ask for.

[Scott]

Off-topic posts and replies reported and removed.

 

[Surasak]

The Baht is like a yo yo, up and down. What happens when the string breaks!!??

[ftpjtm]

25 minutes ago, praguecr said:

yeah sure. and what country should have the world reserve currency? China and the Yuan? Be careful what you ask for.

The Chinese Yuan (or Indian Rupee) can never become dominant reserve currencies unless they are allowed to be freely bought and sold internationally. 

 

I don't see that ever happening in my lifetime, making the whole BRICS concept irrelevant. I BRICS currency can only be used for a limited amount of trade between members. As soon as one of them sees more currency flowing out of their borders than in they'll slam on the brakes negating any agreement they've made.

Edited August 18, 2023 by ftpjtm

[Frankie baby]

Once asked a Thai guy who he was voting for in the election. He said it doesn't matter, their all thieves. But once elected they become a legal thief. So if that's what many Thais think, what's in store for the future. Maybe that futures now, kicking off with currency volatility. 

[mfd101]

I hope all those Westerners praying for a lower baht are prepared for the consequent inflation in prices, particularly of things that Westerners love to buy.

[shackleton]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Forecast I am seeing is 46 or 45.85 baht to the pound end of this month. Let's hope the political chaos continues all year if that is the case 

I think the problem with the pound is to the USA Dollar $1.27

Pre -Brexit $1.50 - $1.60

Post Brexit $1.35 -$1.40

Now $1.27 -?

 

[retarius]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Forecast I am seeing is 46 or 45.85 baht to the pound end of this month. Let's hope the political chaos continues all year if that is the case 

I'm not sure rises in interest rates in the UK are a political football, the more so with an election coming up next year. If UK raises rates then surely the currency will rise, if it moderates rate rises, then the pounds value will relatively reduce. Thailand's exports are slipping which means the demand for baht is reduced weakening the currency.

Note: You should always mistrust forecasts given to two decimal places, it is a fatuous thing to do.

[Dan Rayong]

So far it's good for our incoming retirement funds 

[lordgrinz]

53 minutes ago, Frankie baby said:

Once asked a Thai guy who he was voting for in the election. He said it doesn't matter, their all thieves. But once elected they become a legal thief. So if that's what many Thais think, what's in store for the future. Maybe that futures now, kicking off with currency volatility. 

He was correct, not to mention most people here in Thailand aren't really against corruption, they just wish they had a part of it. With that kind of logic, and typical Thai me first attitudes, the direction of the country isn't looking good. Lets hope the young people have had enough of the dinosaurs that have stolen their futures, they'll need to grow a spine first, because its obvious the dinosaurs aren't going away without being physically removed. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by lordgrinz

[HaoleBoy]

For regular Thais the turbulence in the baht isn't that great I think.  But for the hi-so's of Thailand, who cares! ????   They've created this political mess along with the great manipulator - Thaksin.  Blame the Senators, HI-SOs and the military for all the stagnation after the election.

 

Yes, we foreigners do make out when transferring in EU, UK, US currency. 

[couchpotato]

11 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

He was correct, not to mention most people here in Thailand aren't really against corruption, they just wish they had a part of it. With that kind of logic, and typical Thai me first attitudes, the direction of the country isn't looking good. Lets hope the young people have had enough of the dinosaurs that have stolen their futures, they'll need to grow a spine first, because its obvious the dinosaurs aren't going away without being physically removed. 

"they just wish they had a part of it"

 

Unfortunately your words above are very true for a big proportion of Thai people.  

[goldenbrwn1]

42 minutes ago, shackleton said:

I think the problem with the pound is to the USA Dollar $1.27

Pre -Brexit $1.50 - $1.60

Post Brexit $1.35 -$1.40

Now $1.27 -?

 

The Euro to the $ or Aussie $ to the US $?? Brexit again? It’s not like the £ would still be $1:50 if the UK remained in the EU. Yes it had the short term shock fall after the referendum but just like a basket of world currencies it’s fell against the US $ over the years because the US $ is still a safe haven currency and will still be the worlds reserve currency for the foreseeable future. .  Someone mentioned BRICS …. ???? . Yeh good luck with that . If anything a world CBC will be nxt or at least in the west . I’d prefer to just keep the US $ for now . 

[pomchop]

6 minutes ago, HaoleBoy said:

For regular Thais the turbulence in the baht isn't that great I think.  But for the hi-so's of Thailand, who cares! ????   They've created this political mess along with the great manipulator - Thaksin.  Blame the Senators, HI-SOs and the military for all the stagnation after the election.

 

Yes, we foreigners do make out when transferring in EU, UK, US currency. 

So ousting taksin with an illegal political coup in the middle of the night created a political mess? I would tend to blame a bunch of generals more for taking over power then refusing to give up that power and then rigging the system with 250 unelected senators so they can remain in power forever ...both instances disregarded the basic idea of honoring the votes of the thai people...got a problem with taksin?  Use the courts not tanks.

[itsari]

The financial woes of China is the main reason for the weak baht verses the US dollar .