Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[freeworld]

5 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Who do you think will go to Gaza and make the arrests and then take the terrorists to the Hague for a trial ?

At least issue the international arrest warrants.

 

It will be up to coordination with interpol then.

Edited October 18, 2023 by freeworld

[Neeranam]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I do not support anyone bombing hospitals what a stupid question. Its a tragic situation but what evidence do you have it was the IDF?

Educated guess. 😉 

 

Just wondering what it would take for you to criticize Israel. It seems that will never happen, regardless of the war crimes they are committing. It's not a stupid question.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Neeranam said:

Educated guess. 😉 

 

Just wondering what it would take for you to criticize Israel. It seems that will never happen, regardless of the war crimes they are committing. It's not a stupid question.

Educated guess from you is not evidence. The rest of your post is nonsense

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Bkk Brian

[Neeranam]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Educated guess from you is not evidence. The rest of your post is nonsense

Your inability to answer simple questions is weird. 

Do you think Israel didn't bomb that hospital, killing 500 people?

Do you think Israel are behaving within international war laws?

 

[novacova]

20 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Who do you think will go to Gaza and make the arrests and then take the terrorists to the Hague for a trial ?

They are criminal terrorist, not a militia of a state military force, so no Hague. Immediate elimination or imprisonment by their captors.

If evidence of a State (Iran) sponsor can be presented then The Hague could issue warrants.

Edited October 18, 2023 by novacova

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Your inability to answer simple questions is weird. 

Do you think Israel didn't bomb that hospital, killing 500 people?

Do you think Israel are behaving within international war laws?

 

I've already answered it, do you have a problem with comprehending English?

 

To your new question whether I think Israel bombed the hospital? I just don't know. The only evidence I have seen is the video evidence that a rocket was fired from Gaza and exploded over the hospital then fell down onto it. I also know that Hamas was firing rockets from the vicinity at the same time.

 

Do you have any other evidence to say it was Israel aside from your educated guess?

 

 

[Neeranam]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I've already answered it, do you have a problem with comprehending English?

 

To your new question whether I think Israel bombed the hospital? I just don't know. The only evidence I have seen is the video evidence that a rocket was fired from Gaza and exploded over the hospital then fell down onto it. I also know that Hamas was firing rockets from the vicinity at the same time.

 

Do you have any other evidence to say it was Israel aside from your educated guess?

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I've already answered it, do you have a problem with comprehending English?

 

To your new question whether I think Israel bombed the hospital? I just don't know. The only evidence I have seen is the video evidence that a rocket was fired from Gaza and exploded over the hospital then fell down onto it. I also know that Hamas was firing rockets from the vicinity at the same time.

 

Do you have any other evidence to say it was Israel aside from your educated guess?

 

 

You never answered my question.

Jeez. 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Neeranam said:

 

You never answered my question.

Jeez. 

 

No I can only assume you are trolling, its there in black and white, jog on fella

[Neeranam]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

No I can only assume you are trolling, its there in black and white, jog on fella

I don't know  why you are trolling. 

 

Do you think Israel are acting correctly and not breaking International law?

 

Just 'yes' or 'no'.  

 

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I don't know  why you are trolling. 

 

Do you think Israel are acting correctly and not breaking International law?

 

Just 'yes' or 'no'.  

 

You responded to me and then say I'm trolling....................lol

[MikeandDow]

9 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I don't know  why you are trolling. 

 

Do you think Israel are acting correctly and not breaking International law?

 

Just 'yes' or 'no'.  

 

“international law” is simply obligations which states have voluntarily acceded to. It has to be that way, because there is no effective coercion mechanism for breach. The moment you change international law to being a system of: “well, you didn’t want this, but we are imposing it on you anyhow” then people will simply have no incentive to follow those international laws because they never agreed to them. No Teeth

[Neeranam]

9 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Do you think Israel are acting correctly and not breaking International law?

 

Just 'yes' or 'no'.  

 

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You responded to me and then say I'm trolling....................lol

I can only assume that your answer is 'no' but you don't want to say it for some reason. 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Neeranam said:

 

I can only assume that your answer is 'no' but you don't want to say it for some reason. 

You can assume whatever you like Neeranam I really don't care for your baiting

[Nick Carter icp]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

Educated guess. 😉 

 

Just wondering what it would take for you to criticize Israel. It seems that will never happen, regardless of the war crimes they are committing. It's not a stupid question.

What War crimes are Israel committing ?

(Please anwser, posters keep making these claims and never reply when I ask specifics)

 

[placnx]

19 hours ago, Morch said:

There were bombing attacks before the evacuation order. I don't recall hospitals directly targeted. Same goes for civilians.

 

Hamas started the current mess, with a massive barrage of rockets. Hamas officials bragged about launching thousands of rockets on Israel before the Israeli response.

We all know that Hamas started this conflict. The point I was maikng is that the 6000 bombs were dropped on residences including high rises, not military targets, before the evacuation order. Now we have 500 people killed in a hospital bombing and the meeting in Amman to discuss humanitarian access canceled.

[placnx]

18 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Just stop the silliness. 

As Hamas won't ever accept Israel with ANY borders, if those terrorists win, do you think the many millions of Israeli Jews, most of them born in Israel, are just going to passively leave?

Sure some would flee but the Arabs would need to KILL most of them. That's basic. Can you freakin' just admit that? 

I think that the Hamas vow is impossible to achieve. Unfortunately it gives hardliners in Israel the excuse to implement further apartheid measures against Palestinians, even those who are Israeli citizens.

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, placnx said:

I think that the Hamas vow is impossible to achieve. Unfortunately it gives hardliners in Israel the excuse to implement further apartheid measures against Palestinians, even those who are Israeli citizens.

Jewish people have learned the hard way that when people announce they want to kill them to believe it.

But clearly you have no appreciation for that.

 

As far as the apartheid label that can't be applied to Arab Israeli citizens.

 

I understand its use in reference to the west bank.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

14 minutes ago, placnx said:

We all know that Hamas started this conflict. The point I was maikng is that the 6000 bombs were dropped on residences including high rises, not military targets, before the evacuation order. Now we have 500 people killed in a hospital bombing and the meeting in Amman to discuss humanitarian access canceled.

No mention of human shields.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, rabas said:

Please provide proof of your false accusations.

 

The hospital video clearly shows a solitary rocket from Gaza braking up above the hospital then falling in two pieces, one of which hits the hospital. The two pieces are probably warhead and rocket body, which is still full of explosive rocket fuel because the rocket just launched. The body likely hit the hospital causing the heavy flames seen.

 

Tech analysis: Before the rocket explodes, it starts to become brighter, eventually so bright is causes a lens flare. When it does explode, flame shoots out perpendicular to the flight path, consistent with a breakup of forward and aft sections.

 

Note, Hamas has access to very large rockets like the Badr 3.  These are usually launched one at a time as in the video.

 

 

There are probably thousands of witnesses. First, X should verify (if possible) the identity of the poster. Second, in the dark is it possible to verify location, position of person filming geographically relative to explosion site, trajectory of rocket prior to breakup.

 

Third, international war crimes investigators should have immediate access to the hospital to document any evidence of type of munition involved, obtain other video if available, so that if IDF is the culprit the people involved can be charged. Let's hope that the US is compelled to let a resolution to investigate pass in the Security Council.

Edited October 18, 2023 by placnx

[MikeandDow]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

This should immediately be investigated by war crimes investigators. Will X check the source of the video? It's just a bit difficult in the dark to verify the location and 

 

There are probably thousands of witnesses. First, X should verify (if possible) the identity of the poster. Second, in the dark is it possible to verify location, position of person filming geographically relative to explosion site, trajectory of rocket prior to breakup.

 

Third, international war crimes investigators should have immediate access to the hospital to document any evidence of type of munition involved, obtain other video if available, so that if IDF is the culprit the people involved can be charged. Let's hope that the US is compelled to let a resolution to investigate pass in the Security Council.

"so that if IDF is the culprit the people involved can be charged"       vey nice sentiment but Internation law has no teeth  nothing will happen good example Putin arrest warrant nothing happing.

[placnx]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Post is still on  Al Jazeera page Time stamp 21:25 GMT)

Both accounts edited their posts after Aric Toler, a journalist with the New York Times visual investigations team, questioned the time stamps on the video.

Those time stamps indicated that the video was recorded at least 40 minutes after the explosion at the hospital was first publicly reported, Toler said.

It was not clear if the video was removed from the Israeli accounts on X as a result of Toler’s analysis.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/16/israel-hamas-war-live-iran-warns-resistance-front-may-attack

Is there a break in the video between the sky shot of rocket trajectory and the explosion? If the source is al Jazeera, has anybody checked their original broadcast? Where were they filming the rocket trajectory?

[placnx]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

They tried the same with Shireen Abu Akleh

The longest-serving member of the Senate, Patrick Leahy, challenged the value of Israel’s report on Abu Akleh’s death, noting there was “a history of investigations of shootings by IDF soldiers that rarely result in accountability”.

Leahy increased the pressure on Israel by suggesting that its failure to fully explain the Al-Jazeera reporter’s killing could jeopardise the US’s huge military aid to the Jewish state under a law he sponsored 25 years ago cutting weapons supplies to countries that abuse human rights.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/shireen-abu-akleh-killing-israel-fbi-investigation

UN inquiry says Israeli forces killed journalist Abu Akleh 'without justification'

https://www.tbsnews.net/world/un-inquiry-says-israeli-forces-killed-journalist-abu-akleh-without-justification-720230

It was conclusively shown by various media investigations that Abu Akleh, an American citizen, was killed by an IDF sniper. Israel trying to blame Palestinian gunmen was patently false, since the fighting at the time was in another direction from the IDF fire which involved multiple shots at the journalist. The intentional nature of this crime was ignored by the White House for political reasons, apparently. Just another example of White House complicity in apartheid.

[Morch]

What is factually known is that there was an explosion at a hospital, resulting in mass casualties.

 

As far as I'm aware, Hamas did not provide any proof it was an Israeli attack. There's bound to be something - video footage, bomb shrapnel, or even a crater where the explosion supposedly happen. From what I've seen, there's none of that offer.

 

On the other hand, Hamas was able, within the hour, announce 500 deaths. There is no way they could have actually cleared and counted bodies, verified death, care for the wounded and so on within an hour. This part was obviously dodgy and PR move, rather than fact based.

 

Now, as for Israel deliberately doing this - slim chances. Not policy, and a bad move with Biden exactly on the way. Perfect timing for Hamas to blame Israel for it, though.

 

Then again, it could have been an error, a mistake, whatever. Could be. But in the many times Israel bombed the Gaza Strip over the years, there weren't actually many times hospitals were directly hit - and that with thousands (maybe more?) of sorties flown. So again, slim chances.

 

Israel claims the explosion was the result of an Islamic Jihad rocket misfiring, exploding prematurely, dropping on the hospital etc. While some of the usual suspects will have trouble accepting it, this happens all the time. On each and every occasion the Palestinians fire rockets at Israel, a significant number malfunctions, sometimes with very bad results. Last time Israel and the Islamic Jihad had a go, about 300 rockets misfired. During the present situation, the last figure I saw was 400.

 

It's expected that Arab countries will automatically embrace the Palestinian narrative on this, nothing new there - and even if it turns out Israel's claim is true, most won't budge. Some posters on here the same, probably. So far, it would seem that Western countries are more reasonable about this, waiting for findings and facts. I'll add that at least as far as the USA and the UK go, they have enough surveillance assets in place to get a clearer picture of what happened. 

 

This underscores (again) the issue of Hamas being embedded within its own civilian population, while denying them any protection (as in bomb shelters, or launching in a manner less risky for Gazans). Further, it is not unknown for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to use hospitals and schools as storage facilities ('caught' at it by UNRWA even, on the previous round), place rocket launchers nearby and so on. Somehow, even though that's a clear violation of them international laws some here tend to disregard, minimize or excuse it.

 

I'd say wait and see, but expected that regardless of facts, the meme will stick.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Quite rightly too.

Muslim nations are outraged, too.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Evidence?

6000 bombs

[Morch]

24 minutes ago, placnx said:

There are probably thousands of witnesses. First, X should verify (if possible) the identity of the poster. Second, in the dark is it possible to verify location, position of person filming geographically relative to explosion site, trajectory of rocket prior to breakup.

 

Third, international war crimes investigators should have immediate access to the hospital to document any evidence of type of munition involved, obtain other video if available, so that if IDF is the culprit the people involved can be charged. Let's hope that the US is compelled to let a resolution to investigate pass in the Security Council.

 

How could it be ascertained who was a witness and who is not? Who's credible and who's not? As for your fantasy investigation - Hamas usually does not allow full access to foreign investigators. Notably, the only mention of 'culprit' in your post references the IDF.

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Who do you think will go to Gaza and make the arrests and then take the terrorists to the Hague for a trial ?

For certain classes of war crimes Netanyahu et al would not be protected by diplomatic immunity, just like Putin. 

[Morch]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

Muslim nations are outraged, too.

They are. Quite often, even.

One may ask where is all that caring and goodwill on a weekday, but eh.

[Morch]

Just now, placnx said:

For certain classes of war crimes Netanyahu et al would not be protected by diplomatic immunity, just like Putin. 

How about Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders? Or have you decided the outcome already?

[Morch]

19 hours ago, placnx said:

You said kill ALL Jews. Maybe some Jews would get killed in the process of their concept of liberating their homeland. At one point they even said that they would accept Israel under the terms of the Peace Initiative. As that was a hypothetical at the time, it was something with no obligation for them in the near future.

They did not actually said they'd accept Israel. Not in the way you implied.