Fertility crisis set to halve Thailand’s population in six decades

[webfact]

 

Thailand’s population is predicted to plummet by half over the ensuing six decades due to a mounting fertility crisis. This alarming situation has spurred the Ministry of Public Health to instigate measures to encourage pregnancy and subsequently manage the drastic demographic shift that the country is poised to face.

 

The Public Health Minister, Cholnan Srikaew, highlighted yesterday, October 30 that every province in Thailand is susceptible to the repercussions of this demographic alteration. Currently, the fertility rate for Thai women stands at an average of 1.16, indicating that a woman has approximately 1.16 children throughout her lifetime. An exception to this trend is observed in Yala province, which reports a fertility rate of 2.27.

 

The declining fertility rate was first observed in 1993, with a recorded rate of 2.1. This decline coincides with a decrease in the number of births. In the span from 1963 to 1983, the average annual births were around one million. However, in 2021, the total number of newborns was a mere 485,085, remarkably lower than the annual death toll of 550,042.

Cholnan attributed the primary causes of this decline to economic, social, educational, and environmental issues, with health problems accounting for a mere 10%.

 

by Mitch Connor

Picture courtesy of @memphasys.

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2023-10-31

 

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[2baht]

So, the "men " have no lead in their pencil??? 🤔

[VocalNeal]

I hate to break it to you, but there has never been lead in pencils.🤔

[mfd101]

Thailand's thoroughly laudable contribution to a cleaner, healthier world.

 

Unfortunately not entirely evident in my extended Khmer family, where babies keep popping out of young women with no visible means of support (sigh).

[mfd101]

31 minutes ago, webfact said:

An exception to this trend is observed in Yala province, which reports a fertility rate of 2.27.

 

Mmmm, funny that.

[2baht]

33 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

I hate to break it to you, but there has never been lead in pencils.🤔

 

     You just don't get it, do you! 😏

[VocalNeal]

15 minutes ago, 2baht said:

 

     You just don't get it, do you! 😏

 

Of course, I do. It just wasn't that funny and was maybe a cheap low-blow try at cultural imperialism put down.

So as someone more literate than me once said:  “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

So I did something.

[Henk Langeweg]

Nature kicks back ... Good!

[connda]

Eugenicists - 1
Humanity - 0

[KannikaP]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

However, in 2021, the total number of newborns was a mere 485,085, remarkably lower than the annual death toll of 550,042.

 

So will the difference between births and deaths be 30 million in 6 years?

To my arithmetic, 550042 - 485085 = 64957, which would take 46 years, or even less if the kids don't do more conceiving.

[chickenslegs]

5 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

So will the difference between births and deaths be 30 million in 6 years?

To my arithmetic, 550042 - 485085 = 64957, which would take 46 years, or even less if the kids don't do more conceiving.

6 Decades.

[stoner]

not a bad thing.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

As long as they do not 'resort' to 'innapropriate' Immigration to rectify that situation, like the West foolishly did, then all will be well eventually.

 

It is amazing how predictions of bad outcomes from academics/scientists are often many decades away - but of course they should be paid/employed to continue their analysis. Seems to me that if the bad outcome that the academic/scientist predicts is decades away, this is a great method to get 30-40 years of paid employment to continue to 'monitor' things.  I always wondered the same about all those climate academics/scientists.  What a brilliant scam - the world is ending because of (insert dogma) in 3-5 decades - give me a useless job/career to study more and prove that my useless job/career is justified.  Seems to me that some Churches follow this very same approach.

[Peterphuket]

It's not bad, after all there are too many of us living on this planet.

[WHansen]

Maybe the Thais are smarter than the average 3rd world country, realising that if you can't feed yourself and the children you already have, the situation will worsen with more mouths to feed.

Something most of the African nations are yet to grasp.

 

[KannikaP]

1 hour ago, chickenslegs said:

6 Decades.

To me a decade is 10 years.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

3 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

To me a decade is 10 years.

And six decades is 60 years.  More than enough for your 'prediction' of 46 years.

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, 2baht said:

So, the "men " have no lead in their pencil??? 🤔

maybe they are shooting blanks  555

[Purdey]

If only the government focused on educating what children there are, AI and technology may take up some of the slack. It is still a land of cheap labour.

[Shop mak]

If the government paid for:

Childbirth totally free at hospitals.

3,000 baht per month per child, from the government.

Free education up to a certain age.

 

Maybe more could afford and want to have children.

[ourmanflint]

This happens in every country when women realise they do have a choice between careers and being a mum. Good for them. This is something economists need to work out, because the answer sure as heck isn't the current view of ever expanding growth and capitalism

[daveAustin]

2 hours ago, KannikaP said:

So will the difference between births and deaths be 30 million in 6 years?

To my arithmetic, 550042 - 485085 = 64957, which would take 46 years, or even less if the kids don't do more conceiving.

Doesn’t work like that. In the interim the birth rate will continue to fall—it’s not linear—while the populace continues to age. 

[daveAustin]

Fertility crisis set to halve Thailand’s population in six decades
 

Be a province of China by then anyway, problem solved. 😜

[Dionigi]

3 hours ago, KannikaP said:

So will the difference between births and deaths be 30 million in 6 years?

To my arithmetic, 550042 - 485085 = 64957, which would take 46 years, or even less if the kids don't do more conceiving.

It did say six decades

[Dionigi]

It was not so long ago that we were being told that overpopulation was a problem. We were also told that micro revolution would lead to mass unemployment the same goes for AI. The world keeps on chugging along, luddites or no luddites.

[mfd101]

47 minutes ago, Dionigi said:

It was not so long ago that we were being told that overpopulation was a problem.

The difficulty is that - as China's example shows - demographics are a long-term item where relatively small 'tweeks' of the birthrate above and below 2.1 produce slowly gathering & eventually huge changes in outcomes. Over decades.

 

So, as China shows, even an authoritarian regime with maximum social, cultural and economic control has little capability to change the demographic outcomes once a trend has been set in motion.

 

The beauty of demographics is that, for the State and its bureaucracy, very long-term predictions are possible. For instance, the number of baby boys born in cities this year produces useful estimates on crime rates 20 years down the track ...

[parallelman]

How I love the 'facts of stats'  1.16 children '...indicating that a woman has approximately 1.16 children throughout her lifetime' The math stats may be useful when looking at area hospital costs etc. but here it would be  better written as '...has on average 1 child in her lifetime'.

[KannikaP]

1 hour ago, Dionigi said:

It did say six decades

So it was wrong!

[tkramer]

"Currently, the fertility rate for Thai women stands at an average of 1.16, indicating that a woman has approximately 1.16 children throughout her lifetime. An exception to this trend is observed in Yala province, which reports a fertility rate of 2.27."

 

No, I am not a 'racist', just a scientifically factual guy...as they do tend to double the indigenous Thai's'.

 

Wikipedia:

Yala is one of the four provinces of Thailand with a Muslim majority. About 72 percent of the people are Malay-speaking Muslims 

[Stocky]

4 minutes ago, tkramer said:

as they do tend to double the indigenous Thai's'.

The people of Yala are equally indigenous, they haven't moved, the border did.