'We were told the vaccine was safe - but what happened has been life-changing’

[rabas]

4 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

The thinning of the herd you speak of may turn out to be the ones who took the stuff

 

Got about a 10 million shortage to make up first. 

 

...based on scientific estimates that roughly 20 million died in total from COVID.  Recorded deaths are near 7 million. It's all here:

 

https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/diseases-injuries/covid

 

IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is the world's top health data research institute.  [reference]

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Got about a 10 million shortage to make up first. 

 

...based on scientific estimates that roughly 20 million died in total from COVID.  Recorded deaths are near 7 million. It's all here:

 

https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/diseases-injuries/covid

 

IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is the world's top health data research institute.  [reference]

What is a “death”. What if a person died 99% from lung cancer and 1% from covid. Do you call that a death? They called it a death. You do know that, right? 

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Got about a 10 million shortage to make up first. 

 

...based on scientific estimates that roughly 20 million died in total from COVID.  Recorded deaths are near 7 million. It's all here:

 

https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/diseases-injuries/covid

 

IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is the world's top health data research institute.  [reference]

You’re also claiming the vaccine saved a certain number of peoples lives which we all know that number can’t be proven. 
 

You’re also sorta ignoring the fact that most young people likely didn’t need it. 

Edited May 29 by Robert Paulson

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

What is a “death”. What if a person died 99% from lung cancer and 1% from covid. Do you call that a death? They called it a death. You do know that, right? 

 

 

While there were some small-scale reporting errors early in the pandemic (died with instead of died from COVID), numerous sources are very clear that in the end, the actual numbers of real COVID deaths far exceed those tallied in the official counts (7+ million worldwide), making your claimed example above irrelevant.

 

"The Economist built a machine-learning model to estimate the number of excess deaths during the pandemic for 223 countries and regions.²⁰ From these country-level estimates they calculate a global figure.

 

Globally, the model estimates that the total number of excess deaths is two to four times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19.

 

Some of the specific figures are highly uncertain, as the large uncertainty intervals show. But the overall conclusion remains clear: in many countries and globally, the number of confirmed deaths from COVID-19 is far below the pandemic’s full death toll."

 

Source: Our World in Data

 

 

The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts

Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.

 

18 January 2022

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

You’re also claiming the vaccine saved a certain number of peoples lives which we all know that number can’t be proven. 

 

There have been various studies by various entities covering various periods of time and various geographies, but they all separately have come to the same basic conclusion:

 

COVID vaccines saved millions of lives vs. what would have occurred in the absence of the vaccines.

 

COVID vaccines saved 20M lives in 1st year, scientists say

June 24, 2022

 

Nearly 20 million lives were saved by COVID-19 vaccines during their first year, but even more deaths could have been prevented if international targets for the shots had been reached, researchers reported Thursday.

...

“Catastrophic would be the first word that comes to mind,” Watson said of the outcome if vaccines hadn’t been available to fight the coronavirus. The findings “quantify just how much worse the pandemic could have been if we did not have these vaccines.”

 

The researchers used data from 185 countries to estimate that vaccines prevented 4.2 million COVID-19 deaths in India, 1.9 million in the United States, 1 million in Brazil, 631,000 in France and 507,000 in the United Kingdom."

 

https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-england-54d29ae3af5c700f15d704c14ee224b5

 

 

The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality

National Bureau of Economic Research -- October 2023

 

"The global COVID-19 vaccination campaign is the largest public health campaign in history, with over 2 billion people fully vaccinated within the first 8 months. Nevertheless, the impact of this campaign on all-cause mortality is not well understood. Leveraging the staggered rollout of vaccines, we find that the vaccination campaign across 141 countries averted 2.4 million excess deaths, valued at $6.5 trillion."

 

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31812/w31812.pdf

 

 

Report: COVID-19 vaccines saved US $1.15 trillion, 3 million lives

December 14, 2022

 

A Commonwealth Fund study estimates that, through November 2022, COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 18.5 million US hospitalizations and 3.2 million deaths and saved the country $1.15 trillion.

 ......

Approved COVID-19 vaccines have been available in the United States since December of 2020. Since Dec 12, 2020, 82 million infections, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 798,000 deaths have been reported in the United States.

 

"Without vaccination the U.S. would have experienced 1.5 times more infections, 3.8 times more hospitalizations, and 4.1 times more deaths," the authors wrote. "These losses would have been accompanied by more than $1 trillion in additional medical costs that were averted because of fewer infections, hospitalizations, and deaths."

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/report-covid-19-vaccines-saved-us-115-trillion-3-million-lives

 

 

[stats]

A post with an unsourced and unsubstantiated claim has been removed.

 

Please note the following forum rule:

 

"In factual areas such as news forums and current affairs topics member content that is claimed or portrayed as a fact should be supported by a link to a relevant reputable source."

[impulse]

45 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

"Without vaccination the U.S. would have experienced 1.5 times more infections, 3.8 times more hospitalizations, and 4.1 times more deaths," the authors wrote. "These losses would have been accompanied by more than $1 trillion in additional medical costs that were averted because of fewer infections, hospitalizations, and deaths."

 

1.5x as many infections, 3.8x as many hospitalizations and 4.1x as many deaths.  So, for every additional infection, there would have been 3.8/1.5 = 2.5 more hospitalizations and 4.1/1.5 = 2.7 more deaths. 

 

That's a neat trick.  Each infection causing 2.5 hospitalizations and 2.7 deaths.  Unless, of course, that's the narrative your study is designed to support.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

38 minutes ago, impulse said:

That's a neat trick.  Each infection causing 2.5 hospitalizations and 2.7 deaths.  Unless, of course, that's the narrative your study is designed to support.

 

Or your math calculations are nonsense...

 

There are and were vastly different raw numbers of COVID infections vs hospitalizations vs deaths... and different rates for how effective COVID vaccines are/were in preventing infections (some), hospitalizations (substantial) and deaths (very substantial). So it's no surprise that the greatest protective rate from vaccinations is going to be against deaths.

 

Edited May 29 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Robert Paulson]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

1.5x as many infections, 3.8x as many hospitalizations and 4.1x as many deaths.  So, for every additional infection, there would have been 3.8/1.5 = 2.5 more hospitalizations and 4.1/1.5 = 2.7 more deaths. 

 

That's a neat trick.  Each infection causing 2.5 hospitalizations and 2.7 deaths.  Unless, of course, that's the narrative your study is designed to support.

 

Those numbers remind me of the numbers that started the entire fiasco from the modeling of projected covid deaths. Just plucked from thin air

[save the frogs]

21 hours ago, bbko said:

Hundreds of millions had the same vaccine and they lived, just because a dozen people's bodies couldn't handle it doesn't make it a solid case for the anti-vaxers, if someone's body is so fragile they can't handle what hundreds of millions of others had, then this is thinning the herd, survival of the fittest.  But of course the anti-vaxers will cry and whine as if the big drug companies were suggesting injecting disinfectant to the people...oh wait. 

 

 

 

Good point.

Without sifting through thousands of pages of science (which is possibly pseudo-science), intuitively if some people were negatively affected by the vaccines, its likely that their bodies were extremely unhealthy to begin with. 

That's the most rational intuitive way to interpret things.

Otherwise, 4 billion people would be dead by now. 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

25 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

 

Good point.

Without sifting through thousands of pages of science (which is possibly pseudo-science), intuitively if some people were negatively affected by the vaccines, its likely that their bodies were extremely unhealthy to begin with. 

That's the most rational intuitive way to interpret things.

Otherwise, 4 billion people would be dead by now. 

 

 

I don't know the basis for the claims you're making here, or how you arrived at your 4 billion figure.

 

The basic COVID stats are:

--7 million official deaths

--estimated COVID deaths direct and indirect causes totaling 3-4 times higher

--lives saved/deaths avoided by the COVID vaccines in the many millions, the exact figure depending on various sources.

 

As for COVID vaccine side effects, all the credible sources are clear that serious side effects actually caused by vaccination are very rare among the 13 some billion doses administered thus far, and that those reactions are vastly offset by the numbers of lives saved.

 

I've never seen any single, across-the-board explanation for why those people who do have serious reactions to COVID vaccines end up having those reactions. The potential reactions are varied depending on age, many other personal details and the specific vaccine given, and I'd assume their causes would be as well. But in general, it's well established that almost any medication or medical procedure undertaken is going to have some level of risk across a broad population.

 

 

 

Edited May 29 by TallGuyJohninBKK