Baht Slides: Economic Impacts for Thailand

[GreasyFingers]

4 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

second because the US economy is roaring back to life

With a GDP of 1.6%, largely due to government spending, and well below Russia & China. Happy times are here again?

[Mike Lister]

11 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said:

With a GDP of 1.6%, largely due to government spending, and well below Russia & China. Happy times are here again?

The topic is the Thai economy so let's end the discussion about the US right here please.

 

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent".

 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-second-estimate#:~:text=Real GDP increased 2.5 percent,in 2022 (table 1).

 

 

 

 

[mrwebb8825]

wouldn't mind seeing 43THB - $1 again for a few weeks - give me time to refill my Thai bank accounts w/o much drain on my USD accounts.

[BigBruv]

57 minutes ago, captpkapoor said:

Yeah! I agree. All these singlet wearing, scooter riding, Brits (mostly) in flip flops!

 

Just think, if you'd worked harder and/or smarter you could have retired in a decent country which singlet wearing slobs couldn't afford to live in or even visit.

 

As it is, best to learn to deal with it with equanimity 

 

£1 = 46.3 baht

[transam]

58 minutes ago, captpkapoor said:

Yeah! I agree. All these singlet wearing, scooter riding, Brits (mostly) in flip flops!

Do you flag them down and ask their nationality for your notes........?   🤔

[Purdey]

5 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

the US economy is roaring back to life

Don't tell the electorate....

[Skeptic7]

23 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

U.S. markets tanking.  Possible interest rate increase warning. Great for the exchange rates, but bad for investors and possibly bad for Biden.

Huh❓YTD...hardly "tanking". And both just coming off ALL-TIME highs. 

 

 

 

 

[KhunLA]

11 hours ago, mrwebb8825 said:

wouldn't mind seeing 43THB - $1 again for a few weeks - give me time to refill my Thai bank accounts w/o much drain on my USD accounts.

That new tax enforcement would eat up any gains ... 20% or more when bringing in.   Just 20% would bring it right back down to actually below where we are now:

43 - 20% = 34.4 

 

[Mike Lister]

34 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

Huh❓YTD...hardly "tanking". And both just coming off ALL-TIME highs. 

 

 

 

 

You have to go further back than that to get past the intra month stuff:

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/charts?s=INX:IOM

 

 

[Skeptic7]

30 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

You have to go further back than that to get past the intra month stuff:

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/charts?s=INX:IOM

 

 

Of course...common knowledge. But my reply was to the ignorant and erroneous claim that US Markets were in the midst of "tanking". They're not. Markets never go straight up...also common knowledge. Made my very tidy fortune in the US markets over 30+ years and retired early because of it.

[Mike Lister]

11 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

Of course...common knowledge. But my reply was to the ignorant and erroneous claim that US Markets were in the midst of "tanking". They're not. Markets never go straight up...also common knowledge. Made my very tidy fortune in the US markets over 30+ years and retired early because of it.

Sorry, I misread/understood your post....it's far too early for me! 🙂

[Sigmund]

20 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

THB isn't sliding as much as Indian Rupees. Exchanged 2 THB to 5 INR a week back, didn't spend any, exchanged back and made a profit.

but India's economy seems stronger then Thailand

[Hellfire]

14 hours ago, Elkski said:

37.2 tbht to USD seems higher than 6 months ago.   Highest I recall since before 2016

It was slightly higher than 38 in October 2022

[Skeptic7]

2 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

Sorry, I misread/understood your post....it's far too early for me! 🙂

No prob at all. Your posts are always thorough and informative. 👍

[stix40]

On 5/1/2024 at 7:05 AM, Walker88 said:

Interesting FX moves recently, though the baht and yen are falling for different reasons. The baht is a victim of higher US interest rates and a rather moribund Thai economy that is suffering from a worldwide slowdown in general and a Chinese slowdown in particular.

 

The yen is a canary in the coal mine to anyone---especially expats retired in Thailand---who think they are going to live off a government pension. Japan has an aging population and a woefully underfunded pension system to go along with the highest debt-to-GDP of any major nation (at 260%). As the population becomes an inverted pyramid and debt service takes a larger bite of tax revenues, the only solution is to print. Massive printing means a falling currency and inflation for holders of that currency. The yen hasn't been this low against the USD since the late 1980s/early 1990s.

 

A second choice debt-strapped govts have is to renege on the promises of pensions. It isn't as if any pensioner paid anywhere near as much into the system as they expect to receive; pensions have always been a Ponzi Scheme, which worked when the population was growing and there were more young workers entering the system than old folks leaving it.

 

If I was 20 years old and just beginning my adult working life, I would forget pensions exist and plan my own future by saving. If I was a retired pensioner living off the govt pension, I might hope I age and die quickly, because the day of reckoning is coming. I cannot see the govt of any major nation being able to afford their pension and health commitments, unless they join the race to the bottom in terms of the value of their currency.

 

We're all doomed 😂 

[mrwebb8825]

13 hours ago, KhunLA said:

That new tax enforcement would eat up any gains ... 20% or more when bringing in.   Just 20% would bring it right back down to actually below where we are now:

43 - 20% = 34.4 

 

There's been NO mention of the new taxes having any affect on either SS or VA benefits from the US so your point doesn't fit in my situation.

[KhunLA]

8 minutes ago, mrwebb8825 said:

There's been NO mention of the new taxes having any affect on either SS or VA benefits from the US so your point doesn't fit in my situation.

 

On 5/1/2024 at 6:18 PM, mrwebb8825 said:

wouldn't mind seeing 43THB - $1 again for a few weeks - give me time to refill my Thai bank accounts w/o much drain on my USD accounts.

Just how do you plan on bringing over (assuming) large sum of money, in a few weeks, and showing it is coming from either SS or VA.  As they are distributed monthly, from fed reserve.  SS anyway, not sure where VA bennies are distributed from, also monthly.

[TimBKK]

13 hours ago, KhunLA said:

That new tax enforcement would eat up any gains ... 20% or more when bringing in.   Just 20% would bring it right back down to actually below where we are now:

43 - 20% = 34.4 

 

just indicate “savings” or “pre-2024 savings” on any transfers and, by regulation, they should be exempt Thai taxes.  Emphasis on should…

[metisdead]

Off topic bickering posts and replies have been removed.

[liddelljohn]

I got 47.13 £ to baht    yesterday on a wise transfer  but its dropped back a little  now

[PingRoundTheWorld]

On 5/1/2024 at 2:24 AM, bkk6060 said:

U.S. markets tanking.  Possible interest rate increase warning. Great for the exchange rates, but bad for investors and possibly bad for Biden.

US markets are not tanking, and there's 0% chance for a rate increase. Rate decrease probable in June.  Market rally until Oct-Nov for sure, then it depends on the election.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

On 5/1/2024 at 6:03 AM, connda said:

And then the screams of Thais as inflation decimates the economy and average Thais.

I don't think the 10k plan will ever happen, but even if it does it won't push inflation too much higher. Most people will just waste it on immediate "needs" like gambling, booze, and other recreational activities. There isn't likely to be much increased demand and impact to consumer goods IMO.

 

As for the baht - keep it coming - the lower she goes the better!