Baht strength - How long?

[gejohesch]

I'm certainly not the first to wonder about the exchange rate THB against other currencies, but please bear with me!

 

I see the current rates:

1 USD = 32.4 THB   which is 9% down compared to 6 months ago

1 EUR = 36.2 THB   which is 7% down compared to 6 months ago

1 GBP = 43.3 THB   which is 5% down compared to 6 months ago

 

That's quite a drop in purchasing power within a relatively short time for a lot of western residents in Thailand, and for a lot of potential western tourists! Can someone explain what is going on and give a view on how long this trend might hold in the near-mid term?

[timendres]

What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

[gejohesch]

16 minutes ago, timendres said:

What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

Thanks!

What is "the 31 handle"?

[FlorC]

It seems THB follows the gold price since April.

Euro to Thai Baht Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

 

While in other currencies Gold is al lot up , it stays steady in THB.

Gold is going to keep going up , so will the THB.

 

The US elections may reverse both.

 

[chiang mai]

12 minutes ago, FlorC said:

It seems THB follows the gold price since April.

Euro to Thai Baht Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

 

While in other currencies Gold is al lot up , it stays steady in THB.

Gold is going to keep going up , so will the THB.

 

The US elections may reverse both.

 

Gold is priced in USD and THB is valued against USD also hence both will follow a similar path.

 

Agreed about the elections though, forecasts are for a reversal to 36..

 

[scubascuba3]

Since the prime minister got the boot, maybe they are buying baht selling currencies 

[gejohesch]

31 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Gold is priced in USD and THB is valued against USD also hence both will follow a similar path.

 

Agreed about the elections though, forecasts are for a reversal to 36..

 

That would be 36 USD I guess, i.e. some sort of back where we were 6 months ago (or more)?

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, gejohesch said:

That would be 36 USD I guess, i.e. some sort of back where we were 6 months ago (or more)?

Yes I think so.