Trump ahead in all battleground states - ALL OF THEM!

[Danderman123]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:28 PM, theblether said:

The polls are now rendered worthless. 

 

Early voting numbers are a goldmine of indicators. Far more relevant than any poll. 

 

@mods - can you close this thread please. 

Former GOP Rep. Fred Upton Backs Harris: Trump Is ‘Just Totally Unhinged’

 

This will help in Michigan.

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Former GOP Rep. Fred Upton Backs Harris: Trump Is ‘Just Totally Unhinged’

Key word former. 

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

 

This will help in Michigan.

She needs it

 

Bob Casey baking Trump yet? 

[Danderman123]

Harris has a 500,000 vote firewall in Pennsylvania as of today, indicating a likely win.

 

Michigan early voting is very strong for Harris, the lead may be insurmountable by next week.

 

Wisconsin is still too early.

 

NE-2 is polling very well for Harris.

 

That's the 270 electoral votes right there, folks.

[transam]

26 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Harris has a 500,000 vote firewall in Pennsylvania as of today, indicating a likely win.

 

Michigan early voting is very strong for Harris, the lead may be insurmountable by next week.

 

Wisconsin is still too early.

 

NE-2 is polling very well for Harris.

 

That's the 270 electoral votes right there, folks.

That's the info we want, not a yellow-tale..........🤭

[Danderman123]

On 10/23/2024 at 4:56 PM, theblether said:

Shock early results from Nevada, Republicans are ahead in early voting. This is highly unusual and although tight ( 39 - 37% ) it doesn't bode well for the Dems as the rural counties are flocking to the voting stations. 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/nevada-results 

So, aren't you wondering why you aren't being sent talking points for early voting general?

 

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, who wins the election?

[Yellowtail]

Rut-row

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

Edited October 25 by Yellowtail

[theblether]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Harris has a 500,000 vote firewall in Pennsylvania as of today, indicating a likely win.

 

Michigan early voting is very strong for Harris, the lead may be insurmountable by next week.

 

Wisconsin is still too early.

 

NE-2 is polling very well for Harris.

 

That's the 270 electoral votes right there, folks.

 

Delusional - the Dem early votes lead in PA was well over a million in 2020 and they won the state by 80,000 votes. 

 

Go have a look at the figures for total early votes counted in 2020 and the total of early ballots requested this time - and weep. 

[Danderman123]

Since Trump is behind in early voting in most swing states, he has to rely on high turnout on Election Day to win the election.

 

But, he has a problem:

 

Republicans in swing states say they rarely see group’s canvassers

 

Trump ground game faces new fraud claims as video shows door-knock hack

 

Reuters reports that, according to people involved in America PAC’s efforts, the group “is struggling in some swing states to meet door-knocking goals and is investigating claims that some canvassers lied about the number of voters they have contacted.” And The Guardian reports that, according to people familiar with the matter and leaked data, one-quarter of the door knocks the group claims it has executed in Arizona and Nevada are “potentially fraudulent.”

[theblether]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

So, aren't you wondering why you aren't being sent talking points for early voting general?

 

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, who wins the election?

 

Aye your persistent in your delusion -  here's the 2020 figures - source - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

 

To be fair, Pennsylvania seems to be going well for the Dems at the moment but any repeat of the election day turnout by the GOP this year will be catastrophic for Harris. 

 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Since Trump is behind in early voting in most swing states, he has to rely on high turnout on Election Day to win the election.

 

But, he has a problem:

 

Republicans in swing states say they rarely see group’s canvassers

 

Trump ground game faces new fraud claims as video shows door-knock hack

 

Reuters reports that, according to people involved in America PAC’s efforts, the group “is struggling in some swing states to meet door-knocking goals and is investigating claims that some canvassers lied about the number of voters they have contacted.” And The Guardian reports that, according to people familiar with the matter and leaked data, one-quarter of the door knocks the group claims it has executed in Arizona and Nevada are “potentially fraudulent.”

You keep lying and claiming Trump is behind when no votes have been counted. 

 

Why not try being honest and say the Democrats are ahead in early voting?

 

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Rut-row

2024 Latest Election Polls and Political Insights | RealClearPolling

RCP relies on a flood of fake Republican polls.

 

538 is a better source, as they vet and rate their polls.

 

However, it's pretty clear that the polls show a tight race, and it comes down to turnout. But @Yellowtail doesn't have any talking points about early voting, so all he can do is thrash around and troll when confronted with actual voting numbers:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

[theblether]

and just to clarify for everyone - here's the ACTUAL VOTING FIGURES FOR 2020 as posted on that link.  https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

 

Democrats

1,702,484

Republicans

623,404

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Aye your persistent in your delusion -  here's the 2020 figures - source - https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

 

To be fair, Pennsylvania seems to be going well for the Dems at the moment but any repeat of the election day turnout by the GOP this year will be catastrophic for Harris. 

 

 

 

How about Michigan?

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Delusional - the Dem early votes lead in PA was well over a million in 2020 and they won the state by 80,000 votes. 

 

Go have a look at the figures for total early votes counted in 2020 and the total of early ballots requested this time - and weep. 

The hoping that anti maga fascists end up weeping appears to be a driving motivation of that perverted anti-democracy, anti-constitution movement.

 

What I'm hoping? That the champagne merchants in Moscow end up with truck loads of unsold product.

Edited October 25 by Jingthing

[Danderman123]

Just now, theblether said:

and just to clarify for everyone - here's the ACTUAL VOTING FIGURES FOR 2020 as posted on that link.  https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

 

Democrats

1,702,484

Republicans

623,404

Looks like Trump is getting wiped out in Pennsylvania.

 

Maybe his ground game will help him generate some turnout.

 

Oops.

 

Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

[theblether]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

How about Michigan?

 

How about Republicans are ahead in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia - and a dead heat in North Carolina. 

 

Democrats are ahead 52 - 38% in Michigan. Give me a few minutes and I'll get the 2020 figures for comparison. 

[Danderman123]

Just now, theblether said:

 

How about Republicans are ahead in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia - and a dead heat in North Carolina. 

 

Democrats are ahead 52 - 38% in Michigan. Give me a few minutes and I'll get the 2020 figures for comparison. 

My point is that PA + MI + WI is the ball game. Keep your eye on the ball!

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

The hoping that anti maga fascists end up weeping appears to be a driving motivation of that perverted anti-democracy, anti-constitution movement.

Not everyone that is anti maga is a fascist, many are just stupid.

 

But yeah, it would be great to see them melting down wouldn't it? 

 

Remember Rachel Madow when Hillery lost? How great was that brother? 

[theblether]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Looks like Trump is getting wiped out in Pennsylvania.

 

Maybe his ground game will help him generate some turnout.

 

Oops.

 

Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

 

Did you misread my post? That's the 2020 figure and Trump lost by a mere 80,000 votes when election day votes were counted. 

 

This year, in my estimation, the Dems need to be a million ahead in early votes, 900,000 minimum. 

[Jingthing]

Turnout, enthusiasm, and WOMEN are the keys. I'm optimistic. I don't believe the maga fascists are nearly as enthusiastic as Harris voters.

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Looks like Trump is getting wiped out in Pennsylvania.

 

Maybe his ground game will help him generate some turnout.

 

Oops.

 

Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

Indeed

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

How about Republicans are ahead in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia - and a dead heat in North Carolina. 

 

Democrats are ahead 52 - 38% in Michigan. Give me a few minutes and I'll get the 2020 figures for comparison. 

Here is an Arizona poll with some interesting numbers:

 

Harris (56%) has the advantage over Trump (44%) among those who say they have already voted.

 

Yes, it's just one poll. But the implication is that gender, rather than party affiliation, is predictive of early voting numbers.

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Turnout, enthusiasm, and WOMEN are the keys. I'm optimistic. I don't believe the maga fascists are nearly as enthusiastic as Harris voters.

Yeah, but they seem to be getting there. The left just needs to come down harder on how stupid we are for not wanting open borders, and how smart they are for opening them. 

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Did you misread my post? That's the 2020 figure and Trump lost by a mere 80,000 votes when election day votes were counted. 

 

This year, in my estimation, the Dems need to be a million ahead in early votes, 900,000 minimum. 

With a total Pennsylvania electorate of 8 million, a firewall of 500,000 votes by Election Day should be enough to seal the deal.

[connda]

"It's a lie!!! Grrrrr.  That's a biased poll.  Putin's has twisted the minds of all people polled.  False equivalent!  Harris/Waltz are winning by a landslide!!! Ha ha ha ha.  Stupid MAGA wingnuts.  If they don't vote for Kamala they need to be thrown in jail as racists and women haters.  Conspiracy theory! Conspiracy theory polling!!!"

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Here is an Arizona poll with some interesting numbers:

 

Harris (56%) has the advantage over Trump (44%) among those who say they have already voted.

 

Yes, it's just one poll. But the implication is that gender, rather than party affiliation, is predictive of early voting numbers.

Marist is a fake Democrat poll

[Danderman123]

19 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Delusional - the Dem early votes lead in PA was well over a million in 2020 and they won the state by 80,000 votes. 

 

Go have a look at the figures for total early votes counted in 2020 and the total of early ballots requested this time - and weep. 

You cannot use 2020 as a model for future elections - the Dems had no ground game, and lots of Dems didn't want to go to the polls because of COVID. So, more voted absentee or went to early voting.

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

With a total Pennsylvania electorate of 8 million, a firewall of 500,000 votes by Election Day should be enough to seal the deal.

Assuming the all go to Harris. A dem ballot is not the same as a Harris vote 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

Marist is a fake Democrat poll

This Marist?

 

Marist Arizona Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Arizona, October 2024.

 

Trump +1 Against Harris

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

Assuming the all go to Harris. A dem ballot is not the same as a Harris vote 

Typically, 90% of party members vote for their candidate.

 

Turnout by party members is typically predictive of the number of votes for that party.

 

Right now, Philadelphia is voting Dem by 10 - 1, which means almost a 100,000 vote firewall for Harris.

 

Unless you think they are all voting for Trump.

 

 

Edited October 25 by Danderman123