Will the Trump Tarriff Attack on Thailand be met with backlash against American expats here?

[BLMFem]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:22 AM, SunnyinBangrak said:

Trump haters just cant comprehend the notion of RECIPROCAL tariffs. Not much point debating against ignorance and uninformedness of such magnitude.

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Congratulations, you've learned a big word today. Good for you, although most of us have known that word for decades.

And now I'm gonna explain to you why characterizing these tariffs as reciprocal is incorrect. It's because the numbers are based on Trump's lack of understanding of basic economic principles, leading to completely random numbers. To put it bluntly, he's pulling these numbers out of his big fat behind.

[OJAS]

  On 4/3/2025 at 6:14 AM, Cameroni said:

I doubt they even noticed what is happening.

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They will probably think twice about paying 1,000 THB for a Big Mac should the Thai government decide on retaliatory steps aimed specifically at the US fast-food sector, though!

[baansgr]

Go Trump, what a true leader this great man ia

[simon43]

  On 4/3/2025 at 5:55 AM, Jingthing said:

I think the most pain from the Trump Tariff Disastrously mistaken trade war with the entire world will hit lower and middle class Americans -- but it will also greatly hurt the targets such as Thailand at least for the shorter and medium term. 

 

So when that happens and there is no doubt that it will happen here in Thailand, there is also no doubt that Thai politicians will not blame themselves for the pain. They'll blame the USA. That's normal politics in any country.

 

So the question I have which I don't know the answer yet of course -- will there be a negative impact on American expats in Thailand? As far as government policies targeting Americans specifically and/or a growing wave of anti-Americanism among Thai people? Expat Americans in Thailand -- you may like or not like Trump, but to non-Americans you are walking talking representatives of his incredibly toxic regime. 

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No...

[Cameroni]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:58 AM, OJAS said:

 

They will probably think twice about paying 1,000 THB for a Big Mac should the Thai government decide on retaliatory steps aimed specifically at the US fast-food sector, though!

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Thais don't even like Big Macs! 

 

If the price of Som Tom increases to 1000 baht, there'd be a revolution.

 

But Big Macs?

[Purdey]

I doubt Thais will identify individuals to blame. They know it is the government that made prices rise. Anyway, I guess only 45% of Americans own a passport so there wont be that many visiting.

[frank83628]

  On 4/3/2025 at 6:42 AM, Jingthing said:

Well I don't know yet, but I'm sure when the bad effects hit millions of Thai people that the government will make it crystal clear who is to be blamed -- the USA. So American expats here might become revenge targets. 

Could be similar to the wave of "Asian hate" that hit the USA because of Covid.

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And what effects might they be,  Can you list anything?

 

[Peabody]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:31 AM, BLMFem said:

And now I'm gonna explain to you why characterizing these tariffs as reciprocal is incorrect. It's because the numbers are based on Trump's lack of understanding of basic economic principles, leading to completely random numbers. To put it bluntly, he's pulling these numbers out of his big fat behind.

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He basically divides the trade deficit by imports for each country, gets that percentage, and divides it by 2 to arrive at the tariff

The actual method:

Consider an environment in which the U.S. levies a tariff of rate τ_i on country i and ∆τ_i reflects the change in the tariff rate. Let ε<0 represent the elasticity of imports with respect to import prices, let φ>0 represent the passthrough from tariffs to import prices, let m_i>0 represent total imports from country i, and let x_i>0 represent total exports. Then the decrease in imports due to a change in tariffs equals ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0. Assuming that offsetting exchange rate and general equilibrium effects are small enough to be ignored, the reciprocal tariff that results in a bilateral trade balance of zero satisfies:

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2025/Screenshot%202025-04-02%20200501.png

https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2025-04-02-tariff-math/7c47dfa7-7bf8-4f83-b342-03ae9a499437/_assets/equation-china-middle.jpg

 

[oxo1947]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:21 AM, jonclark said:

Firstky I think a greater % of consumers globally will just avoid anything that says 'Made in the USA' hitting US Exports. 

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Given a similar  product (most) consumers will do the usual---buy the cheapest one, If that country comes to some reciprocal  agreement with the USA then the American import will be cheaper then in was in the past.

 

Its hard to realize why all the hostility  about this move from America--(other then from the usual people)  I lived in Oz for about 25 years , when I got there they were making so many products -- its was cheaper for companies like ford to set up a plant there because of import tax, They even made their own home grown car--"The Holden" which they exported , country not much smaller then USA, with  at that time had a population of New York state.

 

In the 1980s they went the opposite way to what Trump is trying to do in America--

Some people now feel that China owns it

 

Google---

• 1970: Manufacturing accounted for over 25% of all Australian jobs.
• 1970s: The manufacturing sector experienced a decline in its share of total employment.
• 1980: The share of manufacturing employment had fallen to around 19%.
• Factors contributing to the decline: Tariff barriers were rolled back, leading to increased international competition

Now----6.8% of all employment. “Manufacturing is in Australia

 

 

[stupidfarang]

  On 4/3/2025 at 5:55 AM, Jingthing said:

I think the most pain from the Trump Tariff Disastrously mistaken trade war with the entire world will hit lower and middle class Americans -- but it will also greatly hurt the targets such as Thailand at least for the shorter and medium term. 

 

So when that happens and there is no doubt that it will happen here in Thailand, there is also no doubt that Thai politicians will not blame themselves for the pain. They'll blame the USA. That's normal politics in any country.

 

So the question I have which I don't know the answer yet of course -- will there be a negative impact on American expats in Thailand? As far as government policies targeting Americans specifically and/or a growing wave of anti-Americanism among Thai people? Expat Americans in Thailand -- you may like or not like Trump, but to non-Americans you are walking talking representatives of his incredibly toxic regime. 

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People will blame the USA and trump because he has created the situation with the tarifs. As for negative impact on American expats, to late america has lost many friends they had around the world in a matter of two months after rubbishing them and after talking about invading and guess what, who created the resentment towards america? trump, vance, greene and the rest of the toxic bunch that follow trump. As for individual americans, there are some great people out there, but they have all been tarred with the same brush.

[stupidfarang]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:15 AM, Don Giovanni said:

I was totally road legal, wearing underpants and completely within my rights...

 

License 'n all. Any funny stuff would have resulted in him, name and badge number being reported and posted on social media.

 

Get me??

 

The Don!

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  On 4/3/2025 at 7:19 AM, johng said:

 

Exactly  If Thailand has 200% tariff on American cars for example and now America has a 25 % tariff on Thai cars  perhaps it would be in Thailand’s interest to lower its tariff to say 20%  then it can say to America  hey look at your unfair tariff  and America can say well ok  we'll lower our tariff to 20% percent as well..." it's such a crazy idea it might actually work !!! "

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good idea, totally agree, the only downside is the usa car makers are to late, Japan and China have the car market sowen up

[stupidfarang]

  On 4/3/2025 at 8:29 AM, oxo1947 said:

 

Given a similar  product (most) consumers will do the usual---buy the cheapest one, If that country comes to some reciprocal  agreement with the USA then the American import will be cheaper then in was in the past.

 

Its hard to realize why all the hostility  about this move from America--(other then from the usual people)  I lived in Oz for about 25 years , when I got there they were making so many products -- its was cheaper for companies like ford to set up a plant there because of import tax, They even made their own home grown car--"The Holden" which they exported , country not much smaller then USA, with  at that time had a population of New York state.

 

In the 1980s they went the opposite way to what Trump is trying to do in America--

Some people now feel that China owns it

 

Google---

• 1970: Manufacturing accounted for over 25% of all Australian jobs.
• 1970s: The manufacturing sector experienced a decline in its share of total employment.
• 1980: The share of manufacturing employment had fallen to around 19%.
• Factors contributing to the decline: Tariff barriers were rolled back, leading to increased international competition

Now----6.8% of all employment. “Manufacturing is in Australia

 

 

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China already owns 759 billion dollars of USA treasury bonds, better hope they dont cash it in

[KireB]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:22 AM, SunnyinBangrak said:

Trump haters just cant comprehend the notion of RECIPROCAL tariffs. Not much point debating against ignorance and uninformedness of such magnitude.

Expand  

When one country can create money out of thin air, supported by reserve status of the currency, than other countries should have better trade tariffs. You can't have it both! 

 

[SunnyinBangrak]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:31 AM, BLMFem said:

Congratulations, you've learned a big word today. Good for you, although most of us have known that word for decades.

And now I'm gonna explain to you why characterizing these tariffs as reciprocal is incorrect. It's because the numbers are based on Trump's lack of understanding of basic economic principles, leading to completely random numbers. To put it bluntly, he's pulling these numbers out of his big fat behind.

Expand  

So Thailand had a 300% tariff on American made cars. Trump slaps a 36% tariff on Thai broombrooms and you think the correct response is to throw a wobbly? Can we just agree to disagree on the matter of reciprocal tariffs?

[oxo1947]

  On 4/3/2025 at 8:55 AM, stupidfarang said:

China already owns 759 billion dollars of USA treasury bonds, better hope they dont cash it in

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Something most people don't know---China isn't the largest buyer of USA treasury bonds--- Japan

[jerrymahoney]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:58 AM, OJAS said:

 

They will probably think twice about paying 1,000 THB for a Big Mac should the Thai government decide on retaliatory steps aimed specifically at the US fast-food sector, though!

Expand  

McDonald's Thailand is a majority Thai-owned licensee.

[johng]

  On 4/3/2025 at 7:21 AM, jonclark said:

Trump is now helping China hugely - as Trump represents, chaos division and protectionism, Xi now has a much easier task of presenting China as a bastion of free trade,

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I'm not so sure China is much into "free" trade     trade  yes  lots and lots of exports  with minimal imports of raw materials.

[johng]

  On 4/3/2025 at 8:57 AM, KireB said:

When one country can create money out of thin air, supported by reserve status of the currency, than other countries should have better trade tariffs

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Well you do have a good point there    but the  money from thin air  is creating debt and inflation     and any other country can also create money from thin air   less the reserve currency bit.

 

Unfettered printing and the weaponisation of the Dollar  reserve currency  is also seeing more countries  heading towards a new alliance  BRICS

perhaps a return to the Gold standard  or  maybe Bitcoin will win out.

[roo860]

  On 4/3/2025 at 6:25 AM, Felton Jarvis said:

Of course, it will. Actions have consequences. Expats will be the ones who suffer.

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Absolutely, I hope they put them in stocks in Nana Plaza and the peasants can throw rotten fruit at them! 🤣

[John Drake]

  On 4/3/2025 at 6:19 AM, blaze master said:

 

Thailand is the center of the universe to most thai.  To think that some farmer in isan can even begin to give any f's is laughable. 

 

 

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I don't know. My wife and her family are very aware of the US dollar/Thai baht exchange rate.

[John Drake]

  On 4/3/2025 at 6:42 AM, Jingthing said:

Well I don't know yet, but I'm sure when the bad effects hit millions of Thai people that the government will make it crystal clear who is to be blamed -- the USA. So American expats here might become revenge targets. 

Could be similar to the wave of "Asian hate" that hit the USA because of Covid.

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Maybe Pattaya will not be a safe place to be.

[John Drake]

  On 4/3/2025 at 6:54 AM, FolkGuitar said:

Americans have long been seen as the 'Ugly' tourist/expats abroad, running roughshod over more polite, less aggressive cultures who 'say' nothing but notice everything.

Yes, I think we will begin to see less polite behavior towards Americans.

Hell, Americans are seeing less polite behavior towards other Americans BY Americans. Why not by the Thais?

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Why not? Because it's the British who build up the body counts in Thailand.

[blaze master]

  On 4/3/2025 at 1:07 PM, John Drake said:

 

I don't know. My wife and her family are very aware of the US dollar/Thai baht exchange rate.

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This one time at band camp. 

[1FinickyOne]

  On 4/3/2025 at 5:55 AM, Jingthing said:

I think the most pain from the Trump Tariff Disastrously mistaken trade war with the entire world will hit lower and middle class Americans -- but it will also greatly hurt the targets such as Thailand at least for the shorter and medium term. 

 

So when that happens and there is no doubt that it will happen here in Thailand, there is also no doubt that Thai politicians will not blame themselves for the pain. They'll blame the USA. That's normal politics in any country.

 

So the question I have which I don't know the answer yet of course -- will there be a negative impact on American expats in Thailand? As far as government policies targeting Americans specifically and/or a growing wave of anti-Americanism among Thai people? Expat Americans in Thailand -- you may like or not like Trump, but to non-Americans you are walking talking representatives of his incredibly toxic regime. 

Expand  

I don't think it will have any impact on me personally from the Thai who know me, but if there is an official backlash, that would be sad... 

[stevenl]

They'll blame the US. But no, it won't have repercussions for expats.

[Jim Blue]

  On 4/3/2025 at 5:55 AM, Jingthing said:

 - you may like or not like Trump, but to non-Americans you are walking talking representatives of his incredibly toxic regime. 

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Well the Thais got over the Vietnam war and 1mill Asian deaths and welcomed Chinese .Vietnamese and Cambodians as visitors ,sorry forgot the Russians . I am sure they can get over this little fracas also.

[BangkokReady]

You appear to have misspelt "I hope that the Trump tariffs will lead to backlash against American expats here."

[BangkokReady]

  On 4/3/2025 at 5:55 AM, Jingthing said:

Expat Americans in Thailand -- you may like or not like Trump, but to non-Americans you are walking talking representatives of his incredibly toxic regime.

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Just because you want something to be true, does not make it so...  🙄

[Felton Jarvis]

  On 4/3/2025 at 10:24 AM, roo860 said:

Absolutely, I hope they put them in stocks in Nana Plaza and the peasants can throw rotten fruit at them! 🤣

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If you feel that way about fellow expats , feel free to assume room temperature.  Tired of "expat haters" who blame everything on those trying to live frugally in Thailand.

[JonnyF]

  On 4/3/2025 at 5:55 AM, Jingthing said:

So the question I have which I don't know the answer yet of course -- will there be a negative impact on American expats in Thailand? As far as government policies targeting Americans specifically and/or a growing wave of anti-Americanism among Thai people?

Expand  

 

Yes, they're all going to come to get you.

 

They're probably standing outside your condo with pitchforks as we speak.

 

Better stay inside.