2 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I'd be really grateful if you could provide some meaningful justification for your opinion.  Otherwise, it just appears to be an uninformed kneejerk expression of your entrenched opinion, and that doesn't show you in a good light, does it?

Come on, you can do better than this.

p.s.  I value @spidermike007's contributions to these forums, too.
 

He pulled his numbers out of his bum. 48% is the biggest fall ever. That goes to 23,400 on the Dow. 30,000 is far more likely given averages and history.

3 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Look for Congress to to rein in the power of the executive to branch to implement tariffs.  This should have been done a long time ago. 

Congess has delegated much of its constitutional power to the executive branch.   Back in 2017, I said the Democrats might roll back the power of the executive branch since they hate Trump so much. It never happened.    

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security
The White House
April 2, 2025

 

PURSUING RECIPROCITY TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY AND RESTORE NATIONAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY: Today, President Donald J. Trump declared that foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency, and his order imposes responsive tariffs to strengthen the international economic position of the United States and protect American workers.

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

 

-- The bigger national emergency may be the one he just created:

 

In an unprecedented move, President Trump justified the imposition of tariffs on Canada. China, and Mexico under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) based on an “extraordinary threat” from illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

 

The problem for the president, however, is that IEEPA does not explicitly grant tariff authority at all—indeed, the words “duty” or “tariff” appear nowhere in the statute—and to the extent that it grants power to restrict imports, it requires that there be a direct connection between the action taken (here, broad-based tariffs) and a properly declared national emergency (here, migrants and fentanyl crossing the southern border).

 

But there is no direct connection between tariffs on imports of all goods—no matter how innocent or far removed from fentanyl—and the declared national emergency.

 

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/trump-s-use-of-emergency-powers-to-impose-tariffs-is-an-abuse-of-power

 

 

 

So the 1% lose a bit of profit, Boohoo, go cry to someone that cares about your sorry asses.

Just wait until the 5 trillion in tariffs pours in at the end of the fiscal year.

 

We'll see who's laughing then, eh!

 

btw, where are all the Kamala lovers who seemed so sure she was going to win?

Haven't heard a peep out of them since she LOST.

 

Bet they start piping up again soon, for a few days at least...

 

The Don.

10 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

He pulled his numbers out of his bum. 48% is the biggest fall ever. That goes to 23,400 on the Dow. 30,000 is far more likely given averages and history.

I'll give you two more suggestons to help you.

Firstly, as Michael Schumacher used to say of his own legacy, records are there to be broken.  So why do you appear to suggest they are not?

Secondly, as a simple primer, go and learn about Elliott Waves as an expression of stock market movement.  You may or may not choose to believe in them but many professionals do - just saying.  And you may then start to see that 1929's 'Great Depression' was just wave 2...
 

Just now, IsaanT said:

I'll give you two more suggestons to help you.

Firstly, as Michael Schumacher used to say of his own legacy, records are there to be broken.  So why do you appear to suggest they are not?

Secondly, as a simple primer, go and learn about Elliott Waves as an expression of stock market movement.  You may or may not choose to believe in them but many professionals do - just saying.  And you may then start to see that 1929's 'Great Depression' was just wave 2...
 

I know Elliott waves. Every year somebody calls a 80 to 90% fall. All bs. 

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

I know Elliott waves. Every year somebody calls a 80 to 90% fall. All bs. 

I tried...

7 minutes ago, Don Giovanni said:

Just wait until the 5 trillion in tariffs pours in at the end of the fiscal year.

 

We'll see who's laughing then, eh!

 

btw, where are all the Kamala lovers who seemed so sure she was going to win?

Haven't heard a peep out of them since she LOST.

 

Bet they start piping up again soon, for a few days at least...

 

The Don.

Where did you get the figure of 5 trillion from and what are the 5 trillion, pence?

1 minute ago, IsaanT said:

I tried...

You have been brainwashed by shonks on Youtube.

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

You have been brainwashed by shonks on Youtube.

Nope, I've done my own research.

We're clearly not on the same page so I'm withdrawing from this conversation.
 

28 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Always the optimist.😉

Yep, anything for a happy life. 🙂

4 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

Nope, I've done my own research.

We're clearly not on the same page so I'm withdrawing from this conversation.
 

People have to eat, get shelter, use transport. 

 

For a stock crash of 80 to 90% gdp would have to collapse ie 50% of humans died for example in a plague or ww3.

 

It's not logical. A fall of 20 to 35% is what normally happens. 

 

The market is like a spring. Earnings go up, PEs get inflated. Earnings fall, spring bounces back to normal.

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Don Giovanni said:

Just wait until the 5 trillion in tariffs pours in at the end of the fiscal year.

 

We'll see who's laughing then, eh!

 

btw, where are all the Kamala lovers who seemed so sure she was going to win?

Haven't heard a peep out of them since she LOST.

 

Bet they start piping up again soon, for a few days at least...

 

The Don.

Since you only joined AN 9 days ago what could you possibly know about "the Kamala lovers" and what they have and haven't said after the election?

South Korea just dumped their president.

It can be done!

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Take out Pine Gap, Darwin and North West Cape. That takes out 40% of America's surveillance capability, and all communications with nuclear submarines underwater in the Indian Ocean.

 

US can get beef from many places. All subject to tariffs with a broad brush. Try Thailand, I hear their beef is quite tasty.

 

The issues Australia has is with an ally that cuts and runs from all the wars it starts, and uses tariffs when the trade balance is positive for America.

 

It takes a lot to get Australians annoyed. Congratulations on your success. You have probably won the next election for the leftists.

 

Thank you for that angry irrelevant rambling. 

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uGaSgSh72rg&t=7s&pp=ygUTQ2FuYWRhIHVrIGF1c3RyYWxpYQ%3D%3D

42 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The latter, IMO.

 

2nd that. Also it's just an old Biden bully poster in disguise.

1 hour ago, BLMFem said:

Since you only joined AN 9 days ago what could you possibly know about "the Kamala lovers" and what they have and haven't said after the election?

In actual fact, "Don Giovanni" is a reincarnation and has been here on this forum forever (or so it seems).

21 hours ago, frank83628 said:

The tariffs are reciprocal....Google the word.  I don't  know  why you lot can't understand that..... well, I do, it called DJTDS

The tariffs are nowhere near reciprocal. 

 

To be reciprocal, the tariffs would have to be based on what the other countries charge the US. But they're not, as a quick look at the numbers clearly shows.

 

Just take Thailand as an example. Thailand has an average tariff on US imports of less than 9% yet they have been hit with a tariff of 36%. That's not a reciprocal tariff.

1 hour ago, Don Giovanni said:

You do realize that you can read this forum without being a member, don't you?

 

or are you really that stupid?

 

The Don.

Stupid indeed to think you're Bob, the little mosquito that just refuses to get wapped. The crypto trillion-aire. LOL

Now that you are Italian is the 5 trillion in Lira's? Just thinking how the Italian people were surprised when they got the Euro. First time real money.  Can you imagen the number of zero's they had to erase.

12 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The tariffs are nowhere near reciprocal. 

 

To be reciprocal, the tariffs would have to be based on what the other countries charge the US. But they're not, as a quick look at the numbers clearly shows.

 

Just take Thailand as an example. Thailand has an average tariff on US imports of less than 9% yet they have been hit with a tariff of 36%. That's not a reciprocal tariff.

S

 

13 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The tariffs are nowhere near reciprocal. 

 

To be reciprocal, the tariffs would have to be based on what the other countries charge the US. But they're not, as a quick look at the numbers clearly shows.

 

Just take Thailand as an example. Thailand has an average tariff on US imports of less than 9% yet they have been hit with a tariff of 36%. That's not a reciprocal tariff.

So why are all the news channels repeating  the figures Trump quited if they are incorrect?

1 hour ago, Don Giovanni said:

Just wait until the 5 trillion in tariffs pours in at the end of the fiscal year.

 

We'll see who's laughing then, eh!

 

btw, where are all the Kamala lovers who seemed so sure she was going to win?

Haven't heard a peep out of them since she LOST.

 

Bet they start piping up again soon, for a few days at least...

 

The Don.

So who gets the 5 trillion? Not the population, who actually paid it. The federal government gets the money. And of course their goal is more tax cuts for the rich.

19 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

The tariffs are nowhere near reciprocal. 

 

To be reciprocal, the tariffs would have to be based on what the other countries charge the US. But they're not, as a quick look at the numbers clearly shows.

 

Just take Thailand as an example. Thailand has an average tariff on US imports of less than 9% yet they have been hit with a tariff of 36%. That's not a reciprocal tariff.

Trump doesn't understand the difference between tarrifs and trade imbalance. He's trying to equate the two. Neither do the members of the Cult of the Orange Buffoon.

2 hours ago, IsaanT said:

Secondly, as a simple primer, go and learn about Elliott Waves as an expression of stock market movement.  You may or may not choose to believe in them but many professionals do - just saying.  And you may then start to see that 1929's 'Great Depression' was just wave 2...

 

I am an Elliot Wave trader. I had a look at the Dow Jones and there is literally NO way in HELL that 1929 was wave 2. If you would like to post a chart to support this hypothesis please do so.

 

4 hours ago, Cameroni said:

The Dow Jones closed 2024 with 15% up. It lost 4% yesterday.

 

Anyone who thinks this is Armaggedon, you're probably wrong.

Nothing to worry about, IMHO.

 

What's happening is a much needed correction.  And yes, the valuation of many stocks doesn't make much sense.  In any event, a correction is just that, a correction. Fearful people will sell, some people will sell if they get margin calls, and Wall Street institutions will adjust their algorithms as interest rates drop and currencies continue to weaken.   

 

That seems to be Trump's plan.  Lower rates and a weaker dollar.  Fine.  How do you play the game, given that scenario?  

 

Accumulate an ever weakening dollar and perhaps end up investing in lower yielding stocks and bonds at some future point?  I don't think so. Sell and hang onto cash that continues to decrease in value? 

 

Accumulate cash and hope you can time the market and reenter at or near the bottom?  Try to do that and, historically, unless you get really lucky, you end up not doing so well.

 

Why not stay invested? Perhaps adjust your portfolio toward include more risk-on assets?  When the market changes course, which it will, you'll be supercharged.  You bought high risk stocks when no one else wanted them and you'll do well.

 

And if everything really does crash big time, it won't matter, anyway.  You'll be in so much trouble that your stock portfolio will be the least of your worries. 

 

Finally, and in case it's not obvious, the people screaming that the sky is falling are doing so for political reasons.  If it's a Trump plan, it has to be bad. That's the extent of their analysis. 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, IsaanT said:

Nope, I've done my own research.

 

 

That's what Taylor Swift said

20 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Nothing to worry about, IMHO.

 

What's happening is a much needed correction.  And yes, the valuation of many stocks doesn't make much sense.  In any event, a correction is just that, a correction. Fearful people will sell, some people will sell if they get margin calls, and Wall Street institutions will adjust their algorithms as interest rates drop and currencies continue to weaken.   

 

That seems to be Trump's plan.  Lower rates and a weaker dollar.  Fine.  How do you play the game, given that scenario?  

 

Accumulate an ever weakening dollar and perhaps end up investing in lower yielding stocks and bonds at some future point?  I don't think so. Sell and hang onto cash that continues to decrease in value? 

 

Accumulate cash and hope you can time the market and reenter at or near the bottom?  Try to do that and, historically, unless you get really lucky, you end up not doing so well.

 

Why not stay invested? Perhaps adjust your portfolio toward include more risk-on assets?  When the market changes course, which it will, you'll be supercharged.  You bought high risk stocks when no one else wanted them and you'll do well.

 

And if everything really does crash big time, it won't matter, anyway.  You'll be in so much trouble that your stock portfolio will be the least of your worries. 

 

Finally, and in case it's not obvious, the people screaming that the sky is falling are doing so for political reasons.  If it's a Trump plan, it has to be bad. That's the extent of their analysis. 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone has known for a very long time that the steroid performance of the stock market could not last.

 

People have warned of overvaluations for a long time and said there will be a correction. 

 

There are many traders, some extremely accomplished and legendary traders, who have warned of a crash, for the last 15 years. It has not come to pass. Of course, eventually it will, because we all know that the next depression has to come. But right now, we're not there, but of course we will have to wait and see.

 

Elliot waves are notoriously difficult, because they are always evolving. What looks like a wave 2 can be a wave 1, only in time is this revealed, after the fact. It's an art, not a science.

 

Some traders are convinced there is a crash coming, and it's an honest conviction, but it's just that. Looking at the evidence we have a correction now. Not a crash.

2 hours ago, Don Giovanni said:

Just wait until the 5 trillion in tariffs pours in at the end of the fiscal year.

Can you tell me please where that money is coming from?

Who is paying the tariffs?

13 minutes ago, jvs said:

Can you tell me please where that money is coming from?

Who is paying the tariffs?

 

  The gullible goobers who for voted for Trump....and the rest of the US consumer population.  

On 4/3/2025 at 7:18 PM, Tug said:

I’m just a simple lay person of modest meens that being said I seek expert advice in areas that aren’t in my wheelhouse.99% of experts on economic issues say trumps tariffs are not a good idea + with trumps history of business failures and bankruptcy’s  it’s obvious to be skeptical about anything the man says.I fear with sound reason this is another epic blunder.at the bare minimum it’s a tax hike on the working class it’s us regular folk world wide mind you that are going to pay the price I’m afraid.nothing would delight me more to be wrong about this…….we shall see…..

'Lay person' or otherwise, Tug (and to be so or not isn't subject to any judgement on my part, I assure you), I reckon you've proved you've little real need for any 'expert advice' at all, by how you distill the deliberately distracting, "apparent" complexities down to an essence which any unbiased expert would confirm is in total accord with the reality (and your own suspicions) that the working class are gonna be bending over and taking what they've always taken. 

In this case however.....one isn't just talking about US workers, or US economy. It's a bucket of turds thrown down so many other wells we all drink from, worldwide. 

(And btw, isn't the US congress the only body that can constitutionally enact such moves?..... stinky stuff.)

 

But anyway, agree with you Tug.