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Poll -- Who will cave first in the momentous China-USA trade war?

Trade war to end all trade wars 101 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will cave first in the momentous China-USA trade war?

    • China will cave first
      16%
      15
    • USA will cave first
      65%
      58
    • Neither side will cave
      17%
      16

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Featured Replies

4 hours ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

"You can't take money out of China in RMB and get pounds or euros or dollars for  it."

 

    ~some moron

Yes, it is generally possible to exchange Chinese Yuan (RMB) for other currencies like Pounds, Euros, or Dollars, but there are limits and procedures involved. While you can't freely convert unlimited amounts, there are regulated channels for transferring funds, particularly for individuals and expats, says Wise. 

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  • BangkokReady
    BangkokReady

    Obviously Trump will be successful and China will cave.  Trump is a master strategist and China is in the far weaker position.

  • China of course, if Xi doesn’t come forward then China’s economy will collapse and Xi will be out.

  • Through your prism any success of Trump is bad, the same mentality with the border issue…the left will always do the exact opposite for the sake of spite opposed to any good, is why the left is a heap

Posted Images

Just how vulnerable is the US to China? I am certainly no fan of the CCP, but Trump has dug an incredibly deep hole and it's going to be fairly hard for him to dig himself out of this one. 

 

In 2000, the United States was the top trading partner for over 80 percent of countries. As of today, this figure has shrunk to 30 percent, while China has now become the top trading partner for more than 120 countries. China is South America’s top trading partner, and it is Africa’s largest trading partner in terms of total volume, dwarfing U.S.-Africa trade by a factor of four, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

 

Within this context, China has significantly invested in the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) to increase trade route options and bypass choke points, posing a significant challenge for U.S. trade. In 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an ambitious political-economic infrastructure initiative to link East Asia and Europe through land, sea and air under China’s leadership and with the backing of its resources. The twenty-first-century MSR is responsible for the BRI maritime routes that connect China to Europe and the Arctic Ocean via the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. President Xi has repeatedly emphasized that economic powers must be maritime and shipping powers. As China now positions itself as the world’s top exporter, top shipbuilder, and largest trading nation, with around 95 percent of its international trade carried out through sea-lanes, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will soon dominate global maritime trade.

 

The Indo-Pacific is a major hub of global commerce and will continue to be the main target for China’s maritime control. The 10 busiest container ports in the world are located along the shores of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean hosts 80 percent of China’s imported oil and 95 percent of China’s trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. China also has a strong presence in port construction in the developing world: it operates or has ownership of 91 active port projects across the globe where military use is a possibility, providing it with a foothold in every continent except Antarctica. These projects are part of the MSR network, which, according to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Council Information Office, has reached 117 ports across 43 countries, mostly in the Global South. China’s position of control and influence over the majority of port infrastructure globally poses a significant economic and military security threat to the United States. Simply put, China could use its power to interfere with operations that rely on port access—including military and economic operations—and are vital to U.S. interests.

 

China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) also dominate in financing, design, construction, and management of overseas port infrastructure. Between 2010 and 2019, Chinese companies invested roughly $11 billion into overseas ports. China’s two main SOEs involved in port infrastructure are COSCO Shipping Ports, the world’s largest shipping company and port terminal operator, operating and managing 371 berths globally, and China Merchants Ports, the sixth-largest port terminal operator globally. Additionally, the China Communications Construction Company Limited (CCCC) is the biggest port design and construction enterprise in the world. It shapes more than 70 percent of the national standards for the water transportation industry and designed 7 of the top 10 ports. State support to Chinese shipping companies in their endeavors totaled an estimated $132 billion between 2010 and 2018.

 

China is also exporting container cranes from Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Company Limited (ZPMC). ZPMC dominates the global market for container cranes with a staggering 70 percent market share. For example, ZPMC manufactures 80 percent of the cranes used in U.S. ports; this includes 10 strategic seaports. These cranes come equipped with sensors that can track container details, which raises concerns about Chinese access to information about shipped goods, including U.S. military equipment.

 

U.S. ports have a fair, mediocre, or poor rating: 35 percent are fair, 19 percent are mediocre, and 37 percent are poor. At the same time, U.S. ports have been increasingly vulnerable to climate. In 2022, Hurricane Ian forced temporary closures of seven major U.S. ports. Droughts in the Panama Canal disrupted vessels serving U.S. East Coast ports. Besides, many U.S. ports have infrastructure limitations that do not allow them to receive larger vessels, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

 

In terms of overseas ports, the United States severely lags China, as the United States does not manage or own any commercial ports outside its territories. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), however, is beginning to invest ports. A bit late in the game? 

 

Never before has the humble ocean shipping container been this important to American business. If you can’t get one, you can’t move your international cargo — and supply has never been tighter. The cost of global trade is now contingent on how many containers exist, where they are and where they aren’t.

 

How many containers exist is controlled by China. Virtually every ocean shipping container in the world is built there. 

 

Just three Chinese companies account for the majority of production, with Chinese factories now building more than 96% of the world’s dry cargo containers and 100% of the world’s refrigerated containers, according to U.K. consultancy Drewry.

 

Carl Bentzel of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) said earlier this month, “I am concerned that this equipment is controlled by a state-owned enterprise and that we’re completely reliant, and I have questions about whether or not there’s been market manipulation of what is potentially a monopoly.”

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/responding-chinas-growing-influence-ports-global-south

 

 

CCP.jpg

6 hours ago, sharot724 said:

Yes, it is generally possible to exchange Chinese Yuan (RMB) for other currencies like Pounds, Euros, or Dollars, but there are limits and procedures involved. While you can't freely convert unlimited amounts, there are regulated channels for transferring funds, particularly for individuals and expats, says Wise. 

 

Point is that yet another random YouTube video is being used as "proof", kinda like the "tax stamp pimp" experts in videos claiming that US expats have to declare their US social security on Thai tax returns.

 

Methinks "Economic Moron" was referring to the presenter in the video.

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

In terms of overseas ports, the United States severely lags China, as the United States does not manage or own any commercial ports outside its territories.

 

Now do overseas military bases.

However it shakes out - China will always win. 
The US is an empire in decline - its manufacturing base is destroyed and its not going to ever be rebuilt. China is an ancient country which is now on a incredible economic rebound.  The US is headed down; China is headed up. 

15 hours ago, Chalong circle said:

Happy Liberation day 55555 !

Trump always backs out in any negotiation so far in history, giving away more than he gets for his side.  But at least reading the Thai news lately, they have come to understand the Chinese ZERO DOLLAR trade business as they lost a lot of local businesses to the ZERO DOLLAR tourists only spending at Chinese owned shops and tours.  So they admit that they have to work with the US on the tariff bits to protext their own businesses from the Chinese.  Maybe other countries will recognize this too.  I see news reports that the Panama Canal just got rid of the HongKong company controlling both ends of the canal and that Panama is allowing US troops to help them protext the canal.  What this will mean who knows for sure.

15 hours ago, Magictoad said:

The left?

Actually, you should read up on Trump and his negotiations through the decades - all the losses (nut not for him and his family as only the investers lost out) way his lawyer writes the contracts I guess.

1 hour ago, Presnock said:

Actually, you should read up on Trump and his negotiations through the decades - all the losses (nut not for him and his family as only the investers lost out) way his lawyer writes the contracts I guess.

No, Trump lost out too. The thing is that bankruptcy laws in NY State make if very difficult for banks to gain ownershiop of the debtor's collateral. They finally gave up trying and just refused to lend to him anymore.

Just now, placeholder said:

No, Trump lost out too. The thing is that bankruptcy laws in NY State make if very difficult for banks to gain ownershiop of the debtor's collateral. They finally gave up trying and just refused to lend to him anymore.

yeah so then he went to the Germans to get it...until he ran again and then promised the billionaires a bit tax break if he was elected...so that is what the Republicans are pushing for - they talk about fiscal responsibility within the government and they are worse than any other party has ever been IMHO.  When are the MAGottes going to realize that they will be paying more this year and several year hence while the billionaires are getting another big tax break as if they needed it.  If a recession is on the horizon, who thinks that the rich won't be able to afford ANYTHING that they want while the average citizen if he has any money in the bank must forget about college for his kids, new car new Iphone or anything else.  Just saying, where do they think that the money will come from?  People are already losing jobs that seemed to be until they wished to retire - now that is over for millions.  And ss and other benefits, going to be cut and that means tax monies are not going to available for collection or processing by the stripped bare IRS or other govt agencies.  Where are all these funds needed for the rich?  

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

No, Trump lost out too. The thing is that bankruptcy laws in NY State make if very difficult for banks to gain ownershiop of the debtor's collateral. They finally gave up trying and just refused to lend to him anymore.

That is also why he suffers losses claimed on his income taxes - he pays less than the average joe and how does that work for a guy claiming to be worth billions?  Wish someone could advise me on this subject.

1 hour ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Now do overseas military bases.

There's no question that the US is number one when it comes to military bases around the world, nobody is even a close second. However if China shuts down global trade through shipping, the US is pretty much out of business. Trump doesn't seem to get that.. 

 

Xi has an infinitely stronger hand than Trump's, and Trump is going to have to give in to him. He has no choice, China will fight this to the bitter end. They can afford to fight this, the US simply can't. If China dumps US bonds, American debt spending is over. 

2 hours ago, Presnock said:

That is also why he suffers losses claimed on his income taxes - he pays less than the average joe and how does that work for a guy claiming to be worth billions?  Wish someone could advise me on this subject.

 

Income tax is tax on income, not tax on wealth.

 

Guy with billions and no income pay no income tax.

 

Guy with gazillions and $1 billion profit can write off $1 billion losses for net zero income and pay no income tax.

 

Trump's losses on his bankrupt casinos can be carried over to following years to write off future income, if he makes money selling gristly steaks or elon plushies.

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There's no question that the US is number one when it comes to military bases around the world, nobody is even a close second. However if China shuts down global trade through shipping, the US is pretty much out of business. Trump doesn't seem to get that.. 

 

Xi has an infinitely stronger hand than Trump's, and Trump is going to have to give in to him. He has no choice, China will fight this to the bitter end. They can afford to fight this, the US simply can't. If China dumps US bonds, American debt spending is over. 

 

Why would China shut down global trade?  They wanna make money, not tariff the world.

 

Point of the military bases is that the budget for the Pentagon will be over $1 Trillion, and that's excluding military-related line items on other department budgets and blacklist projects.  Costs a lot of money to be the world's dict....i mean, to be the world's policeman.

 

Very expensive to run 800 foreign bases, overthrow sovereign nations, drone wedding parties, pirate other nation's oil tankers.

 

Chine decided to build ports and bridges and hospitals and highways and railroads and industrial parks instead.

 

Well, that and thousands of ships and hundreds of thousands of containers and tens of thousands of factories.

On 4/10/2025 at 9:11 AM, Jingthing said:

The question says it all.

Reportedly China if it chooses has the power to destroy the USA with this trade war.

Yes it would be a big sacrifice, but China is run by a total dictator so the people will comply regardless.

I don't think the USA has that same power over China and the USA is ruled by an autocrat but not a total dictator and the American people will balk bigly at too much sacrifice.

This isn't a joke.

Both leaders care a lot about face but Trump is a proven waffler.

Trump started the trade war, so in a sense China has more moral cred in this war, if that even matters.

So who will cave first?
Will neither cave?

Will China have the resolve to grab this opportunity handed to them by an idiot/insane US president and go for the jugular?

 

We have our answer:

Apple, Nvidia Score Reprieve from Trump Tariffs With Exemptions

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-124707368.html

 

China is looking for potential allies to form trading blocs. In late March, trade officials from China, Japan and South Korea met in Seoul to formulate plans regarding a trilateral free trade bloc, as well as enhance cooperation on supply chain management and export controls.

On Monday Xi is heading abroad to cement ties with Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

EU officials are reportedly travelling to China this summer for a summit with Xi.

 

 

1 hour ago, ThreeCardMonte said:


American companies.

 

 

Not just American companies. 64% of Taiwanese exports are now tariff free, 44% of Malaysian, 30% Vietnam, 30% Thailand, 10-12% of Indian/Mexican.Korean imports now exempt.. The exemption to some of Mexico's exports is significant, because the rest of Mexican exports are hit with extra tariffs allegedly because of fentanyl. Which is now shown to be a sham reason.

 

The whole week has been a nonsense. Billions of wealth gone. Jobs lot. And no doubt it will come out that some people have died as a result of these presidential elections.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/08/30/amid-trump-tariffs-farm-bankruptcies-and-suicides-rise/

 

 

2 hours ago, ThreeCardMonte said:


“I think he needs to be removed from power ASAP “

 

By who?  And for what reason?

 

And you claim Trump is a facist.

Oh, sue, kicked off the site again and had to make yet another user? How many is that now? 12? 20?

 

Maybe the next time you could call yourself Strawman. It would be appropriate.

The US is a fledgling nation, not even 250 years old. China is in it for the long haul. The idiot making decisions now has no impulse control and can't think past when his next Big Mac is arriving.

19 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Just how vulnerable is the US to China? I am certainly no fan of the CCP, but Trump has dug an incredibly deep hole and it's going to be fairly hard for him to dig himself out of this one. 

 

In 2000, the United States was the top trading partner for over 80 percent of countries. As of today, this figure has shrunk to 30 percent, while China has now become the top trading partner for more than 120 countries. China is South America’s top trading partner, and it is Africa’s largest trading partner in terms of total volume, dwarfing U.S.-Africa trade by a factor of four, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

 

Within this context, China has significantly invested in the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) to increase trade route options and bypass choke points, posing a significant challenge for U.S. trade. In 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an ambitious political-economic infrastructure initiative to link East Asia and Europe through land, sea and air under China’s leadership and with the backing of its resources. The twenty-first-century MSR is responsible for the BRI maritime routes that connect China to Europe and the Arctic Ocean via the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. President Xi has repeatedly emphasized that economic powers must be maritime and shipping powers. As China now positions itself as the world’s top exporter, top shipbuilder, and largest trading nation, with around 95 percent of its international trade carried out through sea-lanes, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will soon dominate global maritime trade.

 

The Indo-Pacific is a major hub of global commerce and will continue to be the main target for China’s maritime control. The 10 busiest container ports in the world are located along the shores of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean hosts 80 percent of China’s imported oil and 95 percent of China’s trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. China also has a strong presence in port construction in the developing world: it operates or has ownership of 91 active port projects across the globe where military use is a possibility, providing it with a foothold in every continent except Antarctica. These projects are part of the MSR network, which, according to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Council Information Office, has reached 117 ports across 43 countries, mostly in the Global South. China’s position of control and influence over the majority of port infrastructure globally poses a significant economic and military security threat to the United States. Simply put, China could use its power to interfere with operations that rely on port access—including military and economic operations—and are vital to U.S. interests.

 

China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) also dominate in financing, design, construction, and management of overseas port infrastructure. Between 2010 and 2019, Chinese companies invested roughly $11 billion into overseas ports. China’s two main SOEs involved in port infrastructure are COSCO Shipping Ports, the world’s largest shipping company and port terminal operator, operating and managing 371 berths globally, and China Merchants Ports, the sixth-largest port terminal operator globally. Additionally, the China Communications Construction Company Limited (CCCC) is the biggest port design and construction enterprise in the world. It shapes more than 70 percent of the national standards for the water transportation industry and designed 7 of the top 10 ports. State support to Chinese shipping companies in their endeavors totaled an estimated $132 billion between 2010 and 2018.

 

China is also exporting container cranes from Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Company Limited (ZPMC). ZPMC dominates the global market for container cranes with a staggering 70 percent market share. For example, ZPMC manufactures 80 percent of the cranes used in U.S. ports; this includes 10 strategic seaports. These cranes come equipped with sensors that can track container details, which raises concerns about Chinese access to information about shipped goods, including U.S. military equipment.

 

U.S. ports have a fair, mediocre, or poor rating: 35 percent are fair, 19 percent are mediocre, and 37 percent are poor. At the same time, U.S. ports have been increasingly vulnerable to climate. In 2022, Hurricane Ian forced temporary closures of seven major U.S. ports. Droughts in the Panama Canal disrupted vessels serving U.S. East Coast ports. Besides, many U.S. ports have infrastructure limitations that do not allow them to receive larger vessels, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

 

In terms of overseas ports, the United States severely lags China, as the United States does not manage or own any commercial ports outside its territories. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), however, is beginning to invest ports. A bit late in the game? 

 

Never before has the humble ocean shipping container been this important to American business. If you can’t get one, you can’t move your international cargo — and supply has never been tighter. The cost of global trade is now contingent on how many containers exist, where they are and where they aren’t.

 

How many containers exist is controlled by China. Virtually every ocean shipping container in the world is built there. 

 

Just three Chinese companies account for the majority of production, with Chinese factories now building more than 96% of the world’s dry cargo containers and 100% of the world’s refrigerated containers, according to U.K. consultancy Drewry.

 

Carl Bentzel of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) said earlier this month, “I am concerned that this equipment is controlled by a state-owned enterprise and that we’re completely reliant, and I have questions about whether or not there’s been market manipulation of what is potentially a monopoly.”

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/responding-chinas-growing-influence-ports-global-south

 

 

CCP.jpg

 

The East is NOT Red....

Believe me.

 

 

  • Popular Post
13 hours ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

Why would China shut down global trade?  They wanna make money, not tariff the world.

 

Point of the military bases is that the budget for the Pentagon will be over $1 Trillion, and that's excluding military-related line items on other department budgets and blacklist projects.  Costs a lot of money to be the world's dict....i mean, to be the world's policeman.

 

Very expensive to run 800 foreign bases, overthrow sovereign nations, drone wedding parties, pirate other nation's oil tankers.

 

Chine decided to build ports and bridges and hospitals and highways and railroads and industrial parks instead.

 

Well, that and thousands of ships and hundreds of thousands of containers and tens of thousands of factories.

They could shut down US trade if they wanted to. They hold a far stronger than than the US does. Trump is like a little boy playing with fire. He could get severely burned, and take down America in the process. Dumb and dumber. 

  • Popular Post
17 hours ago, Presnock said:

Trump always backs out in any negotiation so far in history, giving away more than he gets for his side.  But at least reading the Thai news lately, they have come to understand the Chinese ZERO DOLLAR trade business as they lost a lot of local businesses to the ZERO DOLLAR tourists only spending at Chinese owned shops and tours.  So they admit that they have to work with the US on the tariff bits to protext their own businesses from the Chinese.  Maybe other countries will recognize this too.  I see news reports that the Panama Canal just got rid of the HongKong company controlling both ends of the canal and that Panama is allowing US troops to help them protext the canal.  What this will mean who knows for sure.

Trump can barely negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And he is a poor businessman. He bankrupted five companies, and 17 others failed. Most of his fortune was stolen or grifted. He is headed for a bruising. He severely over estimates his ability to bring manufacturing back to the US. He is stuck in a state of nostalgia about what the US used to be. Not gonna happen again. 

 

Not making America great, he is too busy making America more  irrelevant. A true, unstable ignoramus. 

On 4/10/2025 at 3:44 AM, novacova said:

China of course, if Xi doesn’t come forward then China’s economy will collapse and Xi will be out.

China is hyper efficient and authoritarian they have a massive untouched internal market and maufacture a huge range of things America wants (tesla car and Apple Mac for a start.)

US hasn't a hope - they have no industrial base and a market that expects goods at cChinese prices and a growing percentage of the population that want him gone.

  • Popular Post

Smartphones and computers are now exempt from Trump’s latest tariffs

Did Trump blink again?

On 4/10/2025 at 10:08 AM, Yagoda said:

Thats a garbage in, garbage out answer as usual from Ai

Aww have some self respect for your ilk your hero trump sure seems busy carving out exemptions lmao 🤣 he’s folded allready also I take umbrage at the way the survey was worded it should say  trump not the USA 

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Trump can barely negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And he is a poor businessman. He bankrupted five companies, and 17 others failed. Most of his fortune was stolen or grifted. He is headed for a bruising. He severely over estimates his ability to bring manufacturing back to the US. He is stuck in a state of nostalgia about what the US used to be. Not gonna happen again. 

 

Not making America great, he is too busy making America more  irrelevant. A true, unstable ignoramus. 

totally agree, in addition, he is opening the gateways to BRICS decoupling of the dollar in the trade world.  Saw a clip this AM Japan and China have sold over 2 trillion dollars worth of US govt bonds and have agreed to use Yuan and Yen for trade deals.  Pretty soon, the other BRICS countries too will benefit from Trumps tariffs, including I would like to know HOW it is POSSIBLE to negotiate trade deals with 50-75 countries anything this year as most agreements take years even between friends!  Also note the value of the $ sinking even against the Baht!  

  • Author
  • Popular Post
7 hours ago, ThreeCardMonte said:


“I think he needs to be removed from power ASAP “

 

By who?  And for what reason?

 

And you claim Trump is a facist.

Trump is a fascist.

By who?

By congress of course.

For what?

Take your pick. 

Why?

To mitigate the damage he's done. It might be the only way.

To get there where congressional republicans would actually do this, his approval numbers overall would need to get to a bare bones maga cult only 30 percent.

 

'It’s already in the cards': Trump impeachment urged by WSJ editorial board member

 

 

  • Popular Post
1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Trump is a fascist.

By who?

By congress of course.

For what?

Take your pick. 

Why?

To mitigate the damage he's done. It might be the only way.

To get there where congressional republicans would actually do this, his approval numbers overall would need to get to a bare bones maga cult only 30 percent.

 

'It’s already in the cards': Trump impeachment urged by WSJ editorial board member

 

 

They need to wait until Democrats resume control of the Senate. Otherwise it's a total waste of time and money.

3 hours ago, kwilco said:

China is hyper efficient and authoritarian they have a massive untouched internal market and maufacture a huge range of things America wants (tesla car and Apple Mac for a start.)

US hasn't a hope - they have no industrial base and a market that expects goods at cChinese prices and a growing percentage of the population that want him gone.

Youve been wrong about everything else you post. Why not be wrong about politics too

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