Thai Baht Set to Break Key 33/USD Level Amid US-China Trade Tensions

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

In light of escalating US-China trade tensions, the Thai baht may appreciate past the psychological barrier of 33 to the US dollar in the second quarter. This remark was made by the Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) after the currency reached a six-month high.

 

On Thursday morning, the baht traded at 33.18-33.20 against the greenback, a slight retreat from an overnight rate of 33.08. Kanjana Chockpisansin, head of research, banking and finance at the Kasikornbank think tank, highlighted the currency's recent strength alongside other Asian currencies due to the dollar's depreciation amid a weakening US economic prospect. This followed President Donald Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs.

 

Additionally, the baht has been buoyed by surging gold prices, which hit a record high of $3,357.78 per ounce on Thursday. The dollar index, which measures the US dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies, has declined 8% this year, while the baht gained 2.4% from 34.10 to the dollar at the end of 2024.

 

The capital flight from the dollar to currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, which have risen 10.2% and 11.1% respectively year-to-date, further supports the baht's appreciation. "Should US-China tensions persist or worsen, the baht could break past the key level of 33 to the dollar this quarter,".

 

 

 

As of April 16, the Stock Exchange of Thailand saw foreign capital outflows worth 46.9 billion baht year-to-date, compared to 148 billion for all of 2024. However, the Thai bond market attracted 38.2 billion baht in foreign capital during the same period.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks indicated that Trump's tariffs could prompt US inflation spikes, though the Fed plans to await more economic data before adjusting interest rates. Nonetheless, market speculation is growing that if inflation rises due to tariffs, the Fed might cut rates in its upcoming May meeting, sooner than a previously expected June cut.

 

The shifting economic landscape exemplifies the complex balance between global trade tensions and currency markets, as Thailand watches its baht potentially strengthen further in response to external pressures, reported Bangkok Post.

 

-- 2025-04-18

 

 

[J Branche]

These are probably the same analyst on Wall Street who constantly adjust their forecast to the day after the earnings report is released 

 

When Baht hit 34 mid rate I checked the forecast and it was a lot more ambitious, I believe over 36 by end of year

 

I just try to transfer some when rate is good for that period and what I feel it will do in the future

[hotchilli]

Going in the right direction..

[KhunLA]

Today 33.35, vs the high & low of the past 19 yrs ... OMT

 

14% more would be nice

16% less ... is that really going to break your wallet ?

Plan better next time ... 

 

Let me know when it gets below ฿28 / $1 USD.  My Soc Sec DD

will still qualify for ret. visa extension @ ฿28 / $1 US 

 

[khunjeff]

These are the same folks who said two weeks ago that the baht would be crashing through 34.5...

 

 

[Ben Zioner]

We might well see a USD collapse (<20 THB) before the mid terms... The wise would buy now for the next couple of years..

[Banana7]

The basic reason THB is surging is that Thai exporters are increasing exports to the USA, before the tariffs kick-in at full rates. Once the full rates start, imports in USA will be reduced and there will be a lot less USD, coming into Thailand, and  floating around the world.

 

Also, China has started dumping lots of goods into Thailand at super cheap prices. This will squeeze if not bankrupt Thai manufacturers, which will depress Thai GDP.

 

What Thailand imports, like gas, oil, machinery, can't paid for in THB, only USD or Euros, GBP are acceptable.

[CallumWK]

4 minutes ago, khunjeff said:

These are the same folks who said two weeks ago that the baht would be crashing through 34.5...

 

 

 

A few weeks earlier the prediction was even +35 by mid year.

[jas007]

Somehow, I see this story as a non-event. Currencies fluctuate. Whatever is going on now could easily go the other way at the drop of a hat.  

 

On my first trip to Thailand in 2000, I think I was getting a little over 38. In 2007? it dropped briefly below 30.  A few years ago, in 2022, it briefly hit 38 again.  Anyway, nothing in between 30 and 38 would surprise me.  

[Banana7]

45 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

A few weeks earlier the prediction was even +35 by mid year.

Wait for it, it's coming. That forecast was made before the 90 day delay on tariffs. So that level of 35+ should be mid-year+90 days, so about Sept. Oct.

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, Banana7 said:

only USD or Euros, GBP are acceptable.

Canadian Dollar wherein Canada will export its oil & gas anywhere now except to the US?

[thesetat]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

Somehow, I see this story as a non-event. Currencies fluctuate. Whatever is going on now could easily go the other way at the drop of a hat.  

 

On my first trip to Thailand in 2000, I think I was getting a little over 38. In 2007? it dropped briefly below 30.  A few years ago, in 2022, it briefly hit 38 again.  Anyway, nothing in between 30 and 38 would surprise me.  

I agree, but the news has to have a doomsday tone to it for flavor. The baht has fluctuated between 32 to 35 baht for many months now. a few points does not mean anything.