6 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

I just use 50 day and 50 week moving averages. Nothing special. Silver could fall more or go sideways.

Many people use the 200 day ma as well.

I know you use more than MA's. MA's are "direction finders". Depending on time frame, they are eighter "too sensitive" or "too slow". But I agree, MA's belong in the technical tool box.

1 minute ago, swissie said:

I know you use more than MA's. MA's are "direction finders". Depending on time frame, they are eighter "too sensitive" or "too slow". But I agree, MA's belong in the technical tool box.

Bollinger bands are good too. Try a standard deviation of 3.

I value gold at 4,000. Same reasons. Round number plus support on the 50 week ma when it comes back next few months.

8 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Bollinger bands are good too. Try a standard deviation of 3.

The old "Williams%R" has worked quite well over the years. Especially in trending markets.

A very basic approach. Almost "simplistic". Surely, there are more complicated systems around, but do they produce better results over time?

Just now, swissie said:

The old "Williams%R" has worked quite well over the years. Especially in trending markets.

A very basic approach. Almost "simplistic". Surely, there are more complicated systems around, but do they produce better results over time?

No. Best to pick 1 favourite indicator and stick to that. Looking at 5 to 10 things will confuse you.

Just use the same indicator on daily, monthly and weekly.

On 2/3/2026 at 1:38 PM, Yellowtail said:

As far as I know, no one said gold/silver prices could not drop.

In any event, both are up today, and it looks like silver is still up almost 20% and gold over 10% YTD.

Are you saying the bottom will fall out? If so, where do you see them landing? I think gold have more down-side than silver.

Call me a masochist or worse, but I hope that the "bottom falls out" in Silver. I will be there when it happens.

Have some cash left after I sold my wife to a Saudi Arabian harem.

1 minute ago, swissie said:

Call me a masochist or worse, but I hope that the "bottom falls out" in Silver. I will be there when it happens.

Have some cash left after I sold my wife to a Saudi Arabian harem.

Under supply they say so might well hold up. It went from 30 to 120 so had to crash. Fair value should be somewhere between 45 and 85. Below its cheap. Above its a sell.

There's probably 50 indicators that work well. The trick is to pick 1 and just use that for years. That way you will recognise the signs of a bubble or oversold. Its like sport if you play 10 sports you will be good at none. Pick 1.

There's about 100 indicators these days. Only be confusing for a novice.

13 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

There's probably 50 indicators that work well. The trick is to pick 1 and just use that for years. That way you will recognise the signs of a bubble or oversold. Its like sport if you play 10 sports you will be good at none. Pick 1.

There's about 100 indicators these days. Only be confusing for a novice.

I know, I know. But it's still the "fundamentalists" that have made big money (Warren Buffet & Co). No market "technichian" has made comparable amounts of money as far as I know.

No problem, we are also in it "for the game". I have a honest broker. It clearly states on their website that 76% of their retail customers (traders) lose money.

Cheers.

27 minutes ago, swissie said:

Call me a masochist or worse, but I hope that the "bottom falls out" in Silver. I will be there when it happens.

Have some cash left after I sold my wife to a Saudi Arabian harem.

Well, I hope it keeps going up. I have all I want now.

Just now, swissie said:

I know, I know. But it's still the "fundamentalists" that have made big money (Warren Buffet & Co). No market "technichian" has made comparable amounts of money as far as I know.

No problem, we are also in it "for the game". I have a honest broker. It clearly states on their website that 76% of their retail customers (traders) lose money.

Cheers.

He buys huge amounts and makes 21 or 22% a year. A small trader can make 40% a year using charts.

You can't make big money on small trades.

Charts are only good for short term. Buffett buys for 30 years and he buys stocks which are easy to value.

How do you value gold? All a guess. No pe ratios and dividends.

20 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

There's probably 50 indicators that work well. The trick is to pick 1 and just use that for years.

What happens after you have picked the wrong one after 10 years?

Just now, scottiejohn said:

What happens after you have picked the wrong one after 10 years?

There is no wrong one. They are all based on market strength or weakness. Pick anyone and use it for more than a year you will see how it works. If you spend 1 year practising your putting only it will either improve or you should give up.

Guy on Youtube called Oliver something. He buys when the 20 day ma is near the 200 day ma and sells when its high above. His entry is based on candlestick patterns. Using his method you would have bought silver cheap and sold near the high.

Very simple method that works. Velez is the surname. He is the best Youtuber Ive seen by far.

15 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

He buys huge amounts and makes 21 or 22% a year. A small trader can make 40% a year using charts.

You can't make big money on small trades.

40% per year by trading the markets?

Dear Harris, if that were the case, nobody would be a carpenter, a cook, a clerk, a salesman or a circus clown anymore.

They would all be "playing the markets".

Compound interest of 40%? After a number of years you would own the world. Dwarfing Elon Musk & Co. by far.

Just now, swissie said:

40% per year by trading the markets?

Dear Harris, if that were the case, nobody would be a carpenter, a cook, a clerk, a salesman or a circus clown anymore.

They would all be "playing the markets".

Compound interest of 40%? After a number of years you would own the world. Dwarfing Elon Musk & Co. by far.

My dad made 40% 3 years in a row. Hard to do for 30 years though.

Most people get bored and do stupid things.

Trading is hard to do long term. The average cook is an idiot too. I cant see them doing 40% unless fluke.

• Jim Simons: Founder of Renaissance Technologies, whose Medallion Fund delivered over 60% annual returns for decades using quantitative and algorithmic trading.

• Ray Dalio: Created the "All Weather Portfolio" and pioneered systematic macro trading through Bridgewater Associates.

• Stanley Druckenmiller: A key strategist behind Soros’s 1992 trade and renowned for never having a losing year in over 30 years of managing funds.

6 minutes ago, swissie said:

40% per year by trading the markets?

Dear Harris, if that were the case, nobody would be a carpenter, a cook, a clerk, a salesman or a circus clown anymore.

They would all be "playing the markets".

Compound interest of 40%? After a number of years you would own the world. Dwarfing Elon Musk & Co. by far.

Those who make 40% beating the stock marked itself, are those who swindle their customers, and run! Not a long term carrier

Stanley Druckenmiller has consistently used technical analysis and charts as a core part of his investment strategy, alongside fundamental analysis. He has stated that he uses charts to identify price action patterns, detect market disequilibria, and confirm trends. In a 2018 interview, he emphasized trusting "my instincts and technical analysis" to spot shifts in market dynamics, particularly when risk-reward conditions become uncertain.

Druckenmiller learned technical analysis early in his career from his first boss, Drelles, who was known for his extensive chart books. He found technical analysis effective in determining whether a stock would rise or fall, especially when combined with macroeconomic insights and liquidity considerations. He famously said, "I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing

It is worth noting, that only about half of the managed funds in the US outperform the market.

Anyone in the US, be sure to take advantage of your capital gains exemption each year, if you qualify.

9 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Those who make 40% beating the stock marked itself, are those who swindle their customers, and run! Not a long term carrier

Wise words. Only achieable by some sort of "Ponzi Scheme".

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

It is worth noting, that only about half of the managed funds in the US outperform the market.

Anyone in the US, be sure to take advantage of your capital gains exemption each year, if you qualify.

Over the past 20 years, only 8.2% of domestic large-cap mutual funds outperformed the S&P 500 index, according to S&P Global’s SPIVA Scorecard data as of June 2024.

This trend is consistent across multiple time horizons:

• 1-year: ~43% of funds outperformed

• 5-year: ~22.7% outperformed

• 10-year: ~15.3% outperformed

• 15-year: ~10.5% outperformed

• 20-year: Only 8.2% outperformed

The average fund manager is a <deleted> who grew up in a rich family. 80% are clowns in suits

2 minutes ago, swissie said:

Wise words. Only achieable by some sort of "Ponzi Scheme".

I made 51% in my Roth in the last 12 months, but about 15% overall net worth.

Buffett said most profits came from 4 or 5 great investments. So mostly a fluke.

7 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Over the past 20 years, only 8.2% of domestic large-cap mutual funds outperformed the S&P 500 index, according to S&P Global’s SPIVA Scorecard data as of June 2024.

This trend is consistent across multiple time horizons:

• 1-year: ~43% of funds outperformed

• 5-year: ~22.7% outperformed

• 10-year: ~15.3% outperformed

• 15-year: ~10.5% outperformed

• 20-year: Only 8.2% outperformed

Devastating.

1 minute ago, swissie said:

Devastating.

8.2% is pretty poor imo. Rich boys in suits are often dumb.

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I made 51% in my Roth in the last 12 months, but about 15% overall.

Sorry for my ignorance. Who or what is "Roth"?

Just now, swissie said:

Devastating.

Average age of US mutual funds is under 10 years, so half of them would not qualify for the 10, 15 & 20% categories.

It is also limited to large-caps,

2 minutes ago, swissie said:

Sorry for my ignorance. Who or what is "Roth"?

It is a type of US retirement fund. You deposit post-tax funds, and it the growth is tax free if you leave it in until you're 59 1/2

You and only deposit post-tax earned income, and the amount you can deposit is pretty low.