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Baht Poised to Hit 30 per Dollar as Gold Soars

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On 12/24/2025 at 12:54 PM, CallumWK said:

 

I think the correct phrase would be, the lesser we will get for the same money spent

With many goods, I believe its called shrinkflation.

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  • Good to have the best performing currency. The stronger it gets the better. Tourist will stay away, business and economy will go down and the poverty will increase. But who cares. We have the best per

  • Just in time for the high season a bit suss  no manipulation here

  • "best performing" like it is some kind of regonal challenge they have won, seems more like the continue to shoot themselves in the foot, sitting on their hands won't improve things, this quite frankly

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On 12/24/2025 at 4:37 PM, redwood1 said:

This whole Gold trading mumbo jumbo is nonsense...

 

India has a large chunk of the world's supply of gold.And vast amounts of gold are traded there every day...

 

Yet the Indian Rupee has been falling like a rock against the baht even more so than the US dollar....

 

So why is the Rupee not shooting to the moon with all this gold trading?

Could it possibly be, someone is being very economical with the truth?! 

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Currencies don’t move like this by chance. For a national currency to appreciate so much in less than a year, the inflows must be great. They must be large, persistent, and systemic on a scale comparable to national budget flows. Money big enough to move the market itself. Gray money! It is widely estimated that funds related to online and digital fraud circulating in Thailand could reach 200 billion baht. Of this, the authorities have managed to freeze only a fraction. The distance between these figures says a lot about the limits of enforcement in a digital financial system and this does not include funds moving outside the traditional banking system.
So, the problem is not whether the baht is strong or weak. It's possible that large amounts of money are entering Thailand without going through the central bank system!

Felt

You are correct, the idiot US pilicies has weakened e American economy.

On 12/24/2025 at 2:03 PM, dinsdale said:

Slow economy, high household debt, slow tourism, tariffs on exports and a very strong baht. I always thought that this would see a weakening in a currency but I'm not schooled in economics.

You are correct, the idiot US president's policies has weakened the American economy. 

 

It's not the Thai baht being strong, it's the USA being in a recession weakening the US dollar.

On 12/25/2025 at 11:30 AM, Des1 said:

It's hiding in plain sight. Criminal money laundering through the sale of gold. They like to call Thailand a gold trading hub, but really it's a money laundering hub and gold traders are up to their eyeballs in it. They are "clean" due to poor oversight. The government should not bother negotiating with them, they should drop the hammer! This activity is damaging all of Thailand. Lives are being ruined and the economy is suffering.

As an aside, when I went to buy a gold necklace for my girlfriend yesterday, the gold shop told me that in future i would have to pay in cash rather than bank transfer or scan.

 

Reason given was to avoid new government reporting requirements starting 1st Jan.

 

wont make much difference to my 35k baht but it would if spending a few million.

18 hours ago, arick said:

Gold is not soaring it might be rising or floating around 

Gold might not be soaring, but silver is. Today (December 26, 2025) silver is up about 8% to $77.76/oz; I bought a 1 kg bar in mid-October, when spot silver was around $50/oz. The price of spot silver began 2025 at approximately $28.92 per ounce. That puts silver up around 169% this year so far. You can check my math. I don't like the huge spread and 7% VAT on silver purchases, but it's better than getting less than 1% annually at a Thai bank. It's shiny and I like the way it feels in my hand.

The strength of the THB against major currencies defies economic gravity and is disconnected from domestic fundamentals. We'll see how long it last.

On 12/26/2025 at 2:58 PM, Felt 35 said:

 It's possible that large amounts of money are entering Thailand without going through the central bank system!

Felt

 

And this is at the same time as an attempt by the TRD  (from 1.1.2024 onwards ) to start taxing expats on their (visible) bank-transfers into Thailand !

 

A cynic might wonder whether the two things might possibly be related ?  :whistling:

 

Although that said, I don't see why the total amounts being transferred-in would change, by all that much  ...  just how the money we live on gets here.  :cool:

On 12/24/2025 at 4:37 PM, redwood1 said:

This whole Gold trading mumbo jumbo is nonsense...

 

India has a large chunk of the world's supply of gold.And vast amounts of gold are traded there every day...

 

Yet the Indian Rupee has been falling like a rock against the baht even more so than the US dollar....

 

So why is the Rupee not shooting to the moon with all this gold trading?

 

Central Bank Reserves of which only U.S. Treasury Bills and Gold are recognised (as tier-1 assets by the B.I.S.) are held to support a currency in time of crisis.  They must be sold to support the currency.  If they are not sold the currency is not supported.

 

The USD is falling in value - both in real terms and against other "paper money" - and will fall further.  Forthcoming massive sales of U.S. Treasuries by the Bank of Japan, necessary to prop up the yen, sets the seal on this fall in value of the dollar.

 

Central Banks are increasingly preferring gold for reserves rather than USD, for reasons that should be self-evident.

 

If anyone thinks the bankers are right in this, they are free to follow them.  Gold has skyrocketted but will go much higher.  It is being outperformed by silver, which trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

 

The fall in the relative value of the rupee of nearly 5% against the USD (or 10% against a basket of currencies) renders imports more expensive but facilitates exports.  It can obviously have an impact on certain things such as wealthy families sending their children abroad to be educated.  However certain important factors such as energy costs (imported oil) and food prices (much is home-grown) have not been seriously affected.

 

Incidentally, personal holdings of gold in India are massive.  According to a Morgan Stanley report, Indian households hold about 34,600 tonnes of gold, valued at roughly $3.8 trillion in 2025.  A 5% rise in gold prices, driven by rupee depreciation, raises this by around $190 billion.

 

Interesting conversation with wife’s son-in-law, who has a small business installing auto accessories.  His business has taken a huge hit this year—customers have little spending money.  High Baht hurts more than foreigners.

On 12/25/2025 at 1:46 PM, My mate Brian said:

I for one am happy that the Baht is strong against a whole host of currencies. Anything that makes Thailand too expensive for the undesirables is fine by me. A few sheckles less to the Baht won't matter to the likes of me and other gentlemen of my standing. Happy Christmas and good day 🙏

Bob?

14 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Interesting conversation with wife’s son-in-law, who has a small business installing auto accessories.  His business has taken a huge hit this year—customers have little spending money.  High Baht hurts more than foreigners.

 

You can't blame that on the exchange rate, just their budgets and prioritizing their spending, on necessities vs accessories.    Shouldn't affect Thais spending at all.

 

And if foreigners can't afford a mere 10% rise in cost, for extras in life, then they have more money, spending issues than they realize.

Looks like the baht finally is dropping.

 

More than 1% today against dollar and euro

4 hours ago, KhunLA said:

And if foreigners can't afford a mere 10% rise in cost, for extras in life, then they have more money, spending issues than they realize.

If you add up real inflation that's more about 15% to 20% rise on spending.

38 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Looks like the baht finally is dropping.

 

More than 1% today against dollar and euro

just exchanged some money and I got 31 baht to the USD.  

4 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

just exchanged some money and I got 31 baht to the USD.  

I don't know if this is better than yesterday, but this is what Yahoo finance shows today.

 

image.png.9c80c6cfd6e405452f67cc321399c7f3.png

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On 12/28/2025 at 3:25 PM, Ricardo said:

Although that said, I don't see why the total amounts being transferred-in would change, by all that much  ...  just how the money we live on gets here

I for one am spending down savings already in Thailand & have remitted <35% of what I normally remit each year plus I've delayed sending in the money to buy a Condo until next year when I will be spending <180 days in Thailand.

 

I know I'm a sample of 1 but I doubt I'm the only Expat remitting less, the BoT has noticed a significant lowering of remittances (though I suspect the vast majority was Thai's/Thai Companies not remitting as much) such that it was/is planning on amending the Tax changes to allow previous Tax Year's income to be remitted Tax free again.

  

On 12/25/2025 at 12:37 PM, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Exactly correct - glad someone else here can see that fact.  There is a lot of 'real' trade in gold going on - it has been climbing in value for years.  But the big issue is that the BOT allows all gold trade to be in Baht, when other countries (like Singapore) enforce heavy taxation on gold traded in their currency over a certain amount - thereby forcing the trade to be mainly in USD and thus not increasing the SGD too high and thereby making their exports and tourism more expensive - both critical parts of the Singapore economy.  Are the Thai elite very smart and are taking advantage - YES.  But the issue is that they are also pushing their minions in Govt not to make any changes to the rules.  When this all finally comes crashing down - and it will - I think it will be worse than in the late 90s crash of the Baht - which was also caused by unending greed and corruption.  Until then I am not bringing in to Thailand any serious money - I got some money in last year at 25 per $AUS but now it is just above 20 per $AUD and looking likely to go lower.  There is an inevitable crash coming IMO. 

 

Great article in the Asia Times suggesting scam gangs are using crypto to purchase the Thai baht. They are not only purchasing gold but also gaining (stock purchases) controlling interest in energy and financial companies in Thailand. It's a downward spiral facilitated by "influential people" in Thailand.

https://asiatimes.com/2026/01/scam-centers-behind-thailands-strangely-strong-baht/

On 12/29/2025 at 11:27 AM, KhunLA said:

 And if foreigners can't afford a mere 10% rise in cost, for extras in life, then they have more money, spending issues than they realize.

Or they just found a better bargain somewhere else, its not like Thailand is all that wonderful to being with, there are much better places to visit. Slowly but surely, Thailand has lost its cheap luster.

On 12/29/2025 at 4:30 PM, SamSpade said:

I for one am spending down savings already in Thailand & have remitted <35% of what I normally remit each year plus I've delayed sending in the money to buy a Condo until next year when I will be spending <180 days in Thailand.

 

I know I'm a sample of 1 but I doubt I'm the only Expat remitting less, the BoT has noticed a significant lowering of remittances (though I suspect the vast majority was Thai's/Thai Companies not remitting as much) such that it was/is planning on amending the Tax changes to allow previous Tax Year's income to be remitted Tax free again.

  

Yup, same here.....haven't remitted anything since 2023.

28 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

Or they just found a better bargain somewhere else, its not like Thailand is all that wonderful to being with, there are much better places to visit. Slowly but surely, Thailand has lost its cheap luster.

Then they aren't crying about it on a forum, and simply exercised that option that is available to everyone.

Obviously my comment was to poor planning folks, that think it never rains, inflation doesn't exist, and the exchange rate is always in their favor after retirement.

... oops

13 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Then they aren't crying about it on a forum, and simply exercised that option that is available to everyone.

Obviously my comment was to poor planning folks, that think it never rains, inflation doesn't exist, and the exchange rate is always in their favor after retirement.

... oops

People with real money wouldn't come here for anything other than illicit reasons, Thailand offers nothing to the well-off.

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4 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

People with real money wouldn't come here for anything other than illicit reasons, Thailand offers nothing to the well-off.

Define "well off"?

If you'd said mega rich or billionaires I would have agreed with you, but well off would include almost everyone financially stable.

10 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

People with real money wouldn't come here for anything other than illicit reasons, Thailand offers nothing to the well-off.

I didn't come here for illicit reasons, and TH offers quite a bit for the well off (which I've been accused of being), though well off is a bit relative, to need or frivolous spending, along with offering plenty to the not so well off.

I can live (financially), anywhere I want, and still chose TH ... go figure. Saying that, if younger and no kid here, after 25 yrs, I'd probably leave TH. Probably base myself back in USA, and live nomadic.

Basically the same as I do here in TH, just have a lot more to explore.

From your post above, about not remitting anything, you are implying you are well off, so by your logic, you are here for illicit reasons ... hmm

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

From you post above, about no remitting anything, you are implying you are well off, so by you logic, you are here for illicit reasons ... hmm

Me, well-off? LMAO ........I am here for my wife and daughter only, if the family chooses to leave, I would gladly go back to living my quiet life back in small rural college town USA. Though my USA rescue dog is now reaching almost 15 yrs now, and he wouldn't be able to make the journey home, so we will at least stay long enough to see him through his final days. For now, I keep my head down, avoid Thai people at all costs, and try to keep from getting run over or slammed into by inconsiderate and dangerous Thai drivers. My problem is with the people of Thailand themselves, their Me-First attitudes and the way they treat others is reprehensible. I find Thailand to be a combination of all the values I find abhorrent, sort of like the inner-city people of the USA, who seem to mirror the same low moral values of their Thai counterparts. Those fake Thai smiles, are exactly that, fake.

On 12/26/2025 at 3:04 PM, robert2 said:

You are correct, the idiot US pilicies has weakened e American economy.

Good for Us exports!

What did anyone expect really? This is predicted by the plan to make America great again! Low USD, low wages, low cost and people working more for less!

1 hour ago, lordgrinz said:

I keep my head down, avoid Thai people at all costs, and try to keep from getting run over or slammed into by inconsiderate and dangerous Thai drivers. My problem is with the people of Thailand themselves, their Me-First attitudes and the way they treat others is reprehensible. I find Thailand to be a combination of all the values I find abhorrent, sort of like the inner-city people of the USA, who seem to mirror the same low moral values of their Thai counterparts. Those fake Thai smiles, are exactly that, fake.

Which college area, as I lived near a few, Princeton & Ann Arbor outside of Philly area and it's Unis. Would be my choice again, if ever retuning, and living near suburbia. Good music & craft beers, and something always going on.

Don't get the Thai attitude everyone complains about, although TH still is a very male dominant country. Also look when I cross the street, and don't have much of an issue with Thai driver.

No rose tint shades, just how I see life here. It is only a location, and haven't found most places any different, and lived in too many.

Definitely understand the fake smiles in tourist areas, having to deal with idiots all day, and why I avoid the idiots mysef.

Happy New Years

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Which college area, as I lived near a few, Princeton & Ann Arbor outside of Philly area and it's Unis.

Western Massachusetts near UMASS and Amherst College area, quiet, beautiful, lots of outdoor activities, clean air, clean water, clean land, and safe.

3 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

Western Massachusetts near UMASS and Amherst College area, quiet, beautiful, lots of outdoor activities, clean air, clean water, clean land, and safe.

Do miss a few things back in USA, cultural events, change of seasons, snow, and always something going on, near metro areas. Though nothing worth going back for, now, at my age.

My only pet peeve with TH, is a few months of bad air, and main reason we live towards the south, so less of.

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