Professor Hanson nailed it on this one:

https://amgreatness.com/2026/03/03/trumps-way-of-war/

"For five decades, the Iranian street and its unhinged theocracy scared silly the Middle East with its “Death to America” chants, its promise to destroy the Zionist entity, its brag of going nuclear, and its often overt warnings to rip apart the Sunni-dominated Gulf.

But Trump, with help from Israel, finally revealed the theocracy to be a Keystone Kop kleptocracy. The mullahs screamed “Death to America!” but it was Trump’s America that finally brought death to them."

I would be interested in seeing who can counter Prof Hansons arguments

That's all very nice, but what is Trump going to do when the $36 trillion debt can no longer be kicked down the road, or China embargoes rare earth exports to the USA, crippling the military complex?

The last time I looked, bombs and missiles did not solve depressions. It caused them. Ask Putin how Russia is doing.

10 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That's all very nice, but what is Trump going to do when the $36 trillion debt can no longer be kicked down the road, or China embargoes rare earth exports to the USA, crippling the military complex?

The last time I looked, bombs and missiles did not solve depressions. It caused them. Ask Putin how Russia is doing.

So your prediction is that China and Russia will emerge from this Trump created world disaster as the new economic powerhouses embued with love towards their neighbors?

Bet ya dollars to donuts china would never embargo rare earths regardless, wouldnt work anyway.

As to Prof Hansons analysis?

14 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That's all very nice, but what is Trump going to do when the $36 trillion debt can no longer be kicked down the road, or China embargoes rare earth exports to the USA, crippling the military complex?

The last time I looked, bombs and missiles did not solve depressions. It caused them. Ask Putin how Russia is doing.

The usa controls the majority of high quality quartz used in military arms etc.

They need each other.

44 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Professor Hanson nailed it on this one:

https://amgreatness.com/2026/03/03/trumps-way-of-war/

"For five decades, the Iranian street and its unhinged theocracy scared silly the Middle East with its “Death to America” chants, its promise to destroy the Zionist entity, its brag of going nuclear, and its often overt warnings to rip apart the Sunni-dominated Gulf.

But Trump, with help from Israel, finally revealed the theocracy to be a Keystone Kop kleptocracy. The mullahs screamed “Death to America!” but it was Trump’s America that finally brought death to them."

I would be interested in seeing who can counter Prof Hansons arguments

Obama said the billions he sent to Iran would improve the stability of the the IRANian nation & people,and it would incentivize better behavior by the Iran leaders . Nancy said Obama didn't need approval to bomb other countries.Two misguided leftist leaders on a social justice mission ,their appeasement helped cause the ME crisis and the media went along with it.

Finally the 'DELUSION' is over: Guy Benson

So I posited the query to Gemini: has victor hanson ever been proven wrong trump war iran 2026

• The Reality in 2026: While the June 2025 strikes (Operation Epic Fury) did "obliterate" much of the known nuclear infrastructure, the conflict has not ended. As of March 2026, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is still holding briefings to reassure the public that the current strikes are "not endless," even as he warns of more American casualties. The "surgical" victory Hanson described has evolved into a regional conflict with no clear exit plan.

2. Regime Change and Stability

• Hanson’s View: Hanson has frequently posited that the Iranian theocracy was on the verge of collapse due to internal economic pressure and military failure, suggesting that "everyone hated the Iranian theocracy" and it would soon be gone.

• The Reality in 2026: The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during the recent strikes (March 2026), which technically aligns with Hanson's "regime change" scenario. However, the result has been significant instability rather than a clean transition. Reports from Tehran describe deserted streets and a heavy crackdown by the Basij, rather than the immediate popular uprising Hanson’s "optimistic" scenarios often implied.

12 hours ago, Yagoda said:

So your prediction is that China and Russia will emerge from this Trump created world disaster as the new economic powerhouses embued with love towards their neighbors?

Bet ya dollars to donuts china would never embargo rare earths regardless, wouldnt work anyway.

As to Prof Hansons analysis?

Sounds like Prof Hanson is ascribing to Trump smarts which are purely accidental.

China mines 70% of the world's rare earths. It refines 90% of world supply. It's draining the Comex of its silver. FFS do some research before posting.

To get oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy would have to patrol there 24/7. More cost, on top of the $800 million per day the current operation consumes.

You can't lose 20% of the world's oil supply without adding to inflation for every country. Economics 101.

Yeah, that looks like a stable genius move to me.

The Title should have been: Art of War, but without the word THE.

Or: BING-FA

Mr Trumps friend , just shamed the international leftist by agreeing , the Iranian regime terror must stop in a interview at the White House.

google ai overview:

"During this meeting, Chancellor Merz and President Trump discussed the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran, which the White House described as a necessary response to a state sponsor of terrorism".

"Support for Action: Chancellor Merz expressed that Germany shares an interest in ending the Iranian regime's "terror" and stopping its nuclear and ballistic armament".

37 minutes ago, riclag said:

Mr Trumps friend , just shamed the international leftist by agreeing , the Iranian regime terror must stop in a interview at the White House.

google ai overview:

"During this meeting, Chancellor Merz and President Trump discussed the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran, which the White House described as a necessary response to a state sponsor of terrorism".

"Support for Action: Chancellor Merz expressed that Germany shares an interest in ending the Iranian regime's "terror" and stopping its nuclear and ballistic armament".

Was it the same meeting during which Trump forgot where his own father was born? 😂

Yahoo News

Trump Gets His Own Father’s Birthplace Wrong in Rambling...

President Donald Trump got his own father's birthplace wrong during a rambling exchange at a photo op with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House.

45 minutes ago, riclag said:

Mr Trumps friend , just shamed the international leftist by agreeing , the Iranian regime terror must stop in a interview at the White House.

Merz seeks early end to Iran war in Trump meeting: 'Damaging our economies'

During Friedrich Merz's talk with Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday, the German chancellor voiced hopes that 'this war will come to an end as soon as possible,' but added that he and the US president 'are on the same page in terms of getting this terrible regime in Tehran away.'

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday, March 3, backed the aims of the US-Israeli war on Iran but called for its early end, voicing fear for the global economy, as he visited the White Hosue. Merz, who has been among Europe's more hawkish voices on Iran, became the first foreign leader to see Trump after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on Saturday.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/03/03/merz-seeks-early-end-to-iran-war-in-trump-meeting_6751068_4.html

____________________________

NB The conservative German chancellor sat deferentially and mostly silent as Trump threatened to “embargo” Spain for not spending more on defense and for condemning U.S. strikes on Iran ... Merz’s silence was part of an obvious strategy: Never contradict Trump in front of the cameras, and try in private talks to cajole the president into seeing things Germany’s way.

https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-powerless-oval-office-donald-trump-attacks-europe-allies/

12 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Professor Hanson nailed it on this one:

https://amgreatness.com/2026/03/03/trumps-way-of-war/

"For five decades, the Iranian street and its unhinged theocracy scared silly the Middle East with its “Death to America” chants, its promise to destroy the Zionist entity, its brag of going nuclear, and its often overt warnings to rip apart the Sunni-dominated Gulf.

But Trump, with help from Israel, finally revealed the theocracy to be a Keystone Kop kleptocracy. The mullahs screamed “Death to America!” but it was Trump’s America that finally brought death to them."

I would be interested in seeing who can counter Prof Hansons arguments

I would largely agree with Hanson's description but would suggest that his (implied) conclusion that this is the end of the Iranian regime is, as yet, unproven.

As for the strategy itself. Well, destroy a nation's infrastructure, call for its' citizens to take to the streets in order to effect regime change but do nothing to help and then casually walk away at the end of the bombing, firstly seems morally bankrupt and secondly - if recent history is anything to go by - may cause more problems than it solves.

Wrt the medium/ long term effects. Up to now I've believed that BRICS was little more than a catchy acronym. However, Trump's actions since he has taken office may well bring the BRICS nations ever closer. If the relationship between BRICS nations continues to deepen, then the US may find its' influence on the world stage diminished.

5 hours ago, RayC said:

If the relationship between BRICS nations continues to deepen, then the US may find its' influence on the world stage diminished.

Whats left of them LOL

8 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Sounds like Prof Hanson is ascribing to Trump smarts which are purely accidental.

China mines 70% of the world's rare earths. It refines 90% of world supply. It's draining the Comex of its silver. FFS do some research before posting.

To get oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy would have to patrol there 24/7. More cost, on top of the $800 million per day the current operation consumes.

You can't lose 20% of the world's oil supply without adding to inflation for every country. Economics 101.

Yeah, that looks like a stable genius move to me.

Even assuming the correction of your figures, how does one handle the Iranian menace then?

2 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Whats left of them LOL

With any luck the R will come a cropper, but the BICS should be ok.