Just wondering --- Does anyone see the Dollar-Baht rate finally breaking through 33 Baht?

[IMA_FARANG]

Just wondering if any of the "exchange rate trackers" on this forum subject think the U.S. Dollar will finally break through the 33 Baht to a dollar barrier?

Been flirting pretty close for a couple of weeks now.

Was briefly at 32.9.

I get a pension in Dollars every month.

I can remember, only a couple of years ago, when it was at under 29 baht to a Dollar, at least for a short period.

[tookwan cottage]

YES. And it makes me very happy.

[Pib]

Sure....dollar appreciation against most countries is still on the rise...give it a few weeks or months....currency exchange value changes are usually a slow process unless a major financial event hits a country. Now if, when, and how much above 33 baht/USD it goes and for how long it stays above 33 is anyone's guess....and I'm sure there are plenty of folks who feel the dollar-baht exchange rate has peaked--heck, they may be right. But my guess is the exchange rate will get above 33 again in the near future...just a little above 33 within 30 days is what my cheap, Made in China crystal ball is saying--and it has an accuracy percentage of 50%....pretty much equal to coin flipping. Disclaimer: I'm usually drinking Chang beer while viewing the crystal ball so that may affect its accuracy.

[JeremyBowskill]

Yes it will break 33 100%!!! Quite when, well.......

[MrMuddle]

The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong !

[IMA_FARANG]

After I posted this question, I was watching the Bloomberg program.

By coincidence they had a topic on this with one for their FX "experts".

Her prediction was above 33 in the first two months of the new year, maybe earlier.

But expected it to drop back, at least slightly, in the 2nd half of the year.

I would have guessed that myself, anyway.

Nice of the Bloomberg analysts to read this forum topic and then answer my question within 8 hours on their worldwide show!

Just shows you that Thai Visa must have more influence than we thought.

[ToddinChonburi]

it already has, then it dropped back last week.

[Pib]

it already has, then it dropped back last week.

Yea, but that brief pop above 33 was only at the forex trading level; not at the customer level like for money transfers, ATM withdrawals, etc.

[fletchsmile]

Short term or should I say short time, a good chance of breaking thru 33.

Don't expect it to last long term though, once the rest of the world starts to recover, oil prices increase etc... and more attractive options appear on the scene.

US currency and economy is in a relatively decent place at the moment... relatively.

Cheers

Fletch

[el jefe]

What all of the economic experts here forget is that when the dollar/pound/euro rises against the baht all of their favorite imported products, like petrol, goes up in price negating all the anticipated benefits.

[Estrada]

The Baht will not drop due to the fact that there are so many infrastructure developments(roads/rail/4G) taking place next year, which will pull in more foreign investors who will need to buy Baht in order to trade on the SET, or in connection with their construction and manufacturing projects. Indeed, the forex future projection until September 2015 is fairly steady at B32/$1.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Estrada

[capt635]

Like everyone else with an income in USD, I and especially my good wife are more than happy to see the Baht rate rising. Happy New Year to you all

[goatfarmer]

34 before May, 35 before October.

[maswov]

Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss.

[Pib]

Maybe. It spiked when the Fed announced interest will remain low. Possibly the increased oil production in the US will strengthen the dollar but at the current prices oil produced from fracking would be sold at a loss.

For some fracking yes, but other flacking is being done at the $32 to $40 per barrel now. Fracking costs have come down a lot from the days a few years ago when they needed around $80 a barrel to be profitable.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Pib

[PhillyBoy]

My Thai wife read an article that said the Thai gov't would like to devalue the baht to about 36 to the dollar. Don't know the time frame on that as that would make exports cheaper. Being a US farang I am all for the number 36 or greater.

[1FinickyOne]

I think that most forecasts are for continued strength of the dollar though more reflected agst the Euro/yen - the baht seems to be lagging this trend… my guess is that it will continue to decline agst the dollar, but for someone who was accustomed to over 40 - anything less feels like a haircut… though the other important factor to be considered is not only the rate, but the buying power…

[elgordo38]

The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong !

I agree. Our Canadian dollar is really suffering.

[namatjira]

Let me share with you an absolute truth.....nobody, and I mean nobody can be absolutely sure.

Let me share another little truth....of all the predictions that are made by experts 90 percent are wrong.

If they knew they would be rich beyond their wildest dreams, and would not have to work as a predictor.

There are no certainties .............

[Timebandit]

As other counties join the race to the bottom, so may go Thailand. All markets are now manipulated. Your question will be answered by a few elite banksters as they see it lining their pockets. As for a "recovery" you have to stop hanging on every word from Bloomberg.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Timebandit

[Alan653]

I am also on a monthly pension.

I keep hoping the baht will rise above

33 and hopefully more.

I wire transfer my money once each month from my

bank in the US.

And i do watch the Bloomberg channel often

to keep up on the markets.

[PHP87]

There's an App. called "Currency Converter" that allows you to track numerous exchange rates.

[lahgon29]

The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong !

I agree. Our Canadian dollar is really suffering.

Mate, you don't know what suffering Is....I'm waiting for the Oz dollar to crack through 26, down to 25..the glory days of 32 were only a couple of years ago. Funny thing Is that as most emerging market currencies are going down against the USD, the Baht isn't..This is the most teflon currency in the world. I'd be curious to know if anybody thinks there could be weakness in the Baht in the future..

[dao16]

Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth.

I am hopeful, haha.

[Suradit69]

Short term or should I say short time, a good chance of breaking thru 33.

Don't expect it to last long term though, once the rest of the world starts to recover, oil prices increase etc... and more attractive options appear on the scene.

US currency and economy is in a relatively decent place at the moment... relatively.

Cheers

Fletch

It's cyclical. The Euro and Japanese economies are struggling and money is flowing to the US for investment.

If you've got the cash, buy more baht now and then you can slide through the lower rates when they come. Since gold (and oil & other commodities) are traded in dollars, the combination of higher dollars and cheaper baht might even make it worthwhile to park some of those cheap baht in cheap gold (in baht terms). It's speculative, but when the exchange rates reverse direction it could give a lift to gold, especially in baht terms... that is, of course, a gamble ... but isn't everything?

[spambot]

Macro View: If the US economic data remains strong until the Fed increase rates - This will signal investors to flow USD from Thai bonds and stocks and into US - Baht will reduce - If assuming the USD remains strong - The relative movement should give increase in USD/TBH rate.

Edited December 25, 2014 by spambot

[IAMHERE]

Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth.

I am hopeful, haha.

It will crack 34 late August. It will dip below 33.5 right after Sept 11. Later in September the world banking system will collapse and only gold will be worth having, silver is ok if you are in the USA.

[AngelsLariat]

The day after the Dow Jones goes higher than ever before, and the Baht GAINS against the dollar - something seriously wrong !

I agree. Our Canadian dollar is really suffering.

Mate, you don't know what suffering Is....I'm waiting for the Oz dollar to crack through 26, down to 25..the glory days of 32 were only a couple of years ago. Funny thing Is that as most emerging market currencies are going down against the USD, the Baht isn't..This is the most teflon currency in the world. I'd be curious to know if anybody thinks there could be weakness in the Baht in the future..

That's a good point. The Dollar index has gone from about 80 to 90 but acording to Oanda the interbank USD:THB rate was 32.78 one year ago today vs 32.95 today.

[AngelsLariat]

Have read in a few reliable sources (don't remember now, but major finance/econ publications) that it would break 34 some time in 2015. Of course, you never know, but I read it from analysts in North America and Thailand, for what it's worth.

I am hopeful, haha.

It will crack 34 late August. It will dip below 33.5 right after Sept 11. Later in September the world banking system will collapse and only gold will be worth having, silver is ok if you are in the USA.

I was wondering how long it would take before someone pointed that out.

[Don Aleman]

When I came here, 10 years ago, it was 40 to a buck but may return next year when China cancels rice order !