May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Grouse]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

 

This is worth looking at. Our national debt is approaching 100% of GDP

 

Our credit rating affects the interest to be paid...

 

Great time to take risks with the economy.....

 

National debt interest is about 5x EU contributions. How many NHS buses can one buy for that ?

Edited September 23, 2017 by Grouse

[mommysboy]

11 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

People look somewhat differently upon this issue.

 

In my view leaving the EU means leaving the EEA. UK's only legal qualification for being party

to the EEA comes through her EU membership. Stepping out of the EU and the qualification vanishes.

 

Sure may be ruled upon. But it is certainly not for UK to make a decisive ruling on this.

UK may rule whether they like to leave or like to stay in EEA. But UK courts are NOT the guardian of EEA.

 

For UK to be in EEA after Brexit the by the book way would be along

the lines of;

 

a) Terminate EU membership

Apply for EFTA membership

(if and when EFTA membership is granted)

c) Apply for becoming party to EEA

 

The last bit, c), if accepted by exisiting parties to EEA will involve a treaty modification that needs ratification

by ALL EU memberstates as well as all EFTA memberstates party to EEA.

In other words; time consuming.

 

Now,

there are a whole host of shortcuts and presumptive actions

that can be taken/applied (deviations from the book) provided

that the concerned parties agree,

treaty law is in practice pretty soft and real obstacles are few

and far between

AS LONG AS ALL PARTIES AGREE

Have a nice saturday morning!

I finished my sudoku in record time this morning.

I'm inclined to go with the logic you present so well.

 

There is the line of argument that some members enjoy single market status but are not EU members, so the two are not completely intertwined.

[mommysboy]

25 minutes ago, Grouse said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

 

This is worth looking at. Our national debt is approaching 100% of GDP

 

Our credit rating affects the interest to be paid...

 

Great time to take risks with the economy.....

 

National debt interest is about 5x EU contributions. How many NHS buses can one buy for that ?

I think entirely the same way.  It is just not a good time to leave.

[SheungWan]

5 hours ago, soalbundy said:

May has given way in Florence, it's the beginning of the end for Brexit 

I do not believe it is a question of May having 'given way'. It is rather an assessment of the cost of not having having an interim agreement Vs having one, plus paving the way for an overall agreement vs not having one. In case anyone may have forgotten, there is also the small matter of the Nissan agreement (plus any 'me too's') which would pop up in the event of hard exit. Now the game in town is that either the Tories hang together or for sure they will hang separately.

[SheungWan]

8 hours ago, nauseus said:

If Maggie was still there we would have been out years ago!

Any other cadaver you would like to dig up to assist the cause?

Edited September 23, 2017 by SheungWan

[Jip99]

27 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Any other cadaver you would like to dig up to assist the cause?

No.

 

That one seems to cover it.

[mommysboy]

26 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

I do not believe it is a question of May having 'given way'. It is rather an assessment of the cost of not having having an interim agreement Vs having one, plus paving the way for an overall agreement vs not having one. In case anyone may have forgotten, there is also the small matter of the Nissan agreement (plus any 'me too's') which would pop up in the event of hard exit. Now the game in town is that either the Tories hang together or for sure they will hang separately.

I think so too. The interim agreement is logical in another way too, in that it allows us to pay our dues and commitments as if we were a member, which then largely negates the need for a final inflated bill.  By the time we leave proper, presumably only pension commitments will remain outstanding which can be met by the usual arrangment or similar.

[nauseus]

10 hours ago, Grouse said:

I see the Cons can't hold themselves together for a day! That pantomime dame Rees Mogg is undermining May already. As a counterbalance, the dreadful shadow Home Secretary Abbot was let loose on Any Questions just to confirm, if anyone had any doubt, that Labour are unelectable.

 

We're heading for doom, I tell you, Doom!

After a fouled up election and two floppy back-to-back speeches to the world and Europe, Mrs May has either lost any iota of control that she had, or more likely she is just throwing it away! So I fear that you may be correct. Is she James May's elder sister? Oh cock!

Edited September 24, 2017 by nauseus

[nauseus]

9 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Any other cadaver you would like to dig up to assist the cause?

Another outstanding contribution. Sheer brilliance!

[nauseus]

9 hours ago, Grouse said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

 

This is worth looking at. Our national debt is approaching 100% of GDP

 

Our credit rating affects the interest to be paid...

 

Great time to take risks with the economy.....

 

National debt interest is about 5x EU contributions. How many NHS buses can one buy for that ?

There is never a good time for risk but what is the risk of being required to bail out Greece, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, Ireland, Belgium, Spain or even France, if we stay in? This lot are all still 100+% and vulnerable to the next financial crisis.

[nauseus]

May ready for tough talks over Brexit? Not anymore, if ever. It looks like it's finally time to finally close this topic! 

 

Any more topics on TV up to p663? Must be a record anyway? 

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, rockingrobin said:

Articles 127 and 126 of the EEA treaty appear contradictory and can support either argument , one of the issues that may be raised during a transition period is will the EFTA members dispute whether the UK is still  a member of the EEA

That is a fairly valid point. TM is now obviously in favour of the transition period and one of the conditions may be that the UK becomes an EFTA member, even if on a temporary basis.

With only 4 members, EFTA is unlikely to be so problematic as the EU.

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

right,

but the leaving EU=leaving EEA fraternity would probably argue that the notice was already given ultimo March this year

 

legal ruling in the UK on an issue which is not really a UK legal problem?

or do you mean a legal ruling by some EU/EEA body?

 

"as there would be no reason why the UK could not remain in the EEA during the transition period"

???

you will need the agreement of the EEA membership for that

Will there be a transition period?

 

 

Will there be a transition period?

 

Only time will tell, TM does not always get what she wants.

At the end of the day it is all a legal minefield and there are those in the UK that will be watching to ensure she abides by the letter of the law and where there is ambiguity they will seek clarification. The government lawyers have been proved wrong before.

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, Grouse said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

 

This is worth looking at. Our national debt is approaching 100% of GDP

 

Our credit rating affects the interest to be paid...

 

Great time to take risks with the economy.....

 

National debt interest is about 5x EU contributions. How many NHS buses can one buy for that ?

You are being quite generous there. From 2015

National Debt Interest (5.0%)

UK Contribution to the EU Budget (0.6%)

 

"Our credit rating affects the interest to be paid..."

 

It does not matter what TM says, the markets will follow the ratings.

People have just got poorer without even realising it.

 

[Grouse]

https://www.ft.com/content/931719d6-9fdc-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5

 

Imagination Technologies sold to Chinese.

 

Note Trump blocked a similar deal in the USA

 

Coming after the sale of ARM holdings, this pretty much kills our semiconductor industry.

 

So another one bites the dust despite May's assurances of building tech.

[Grouse]

Here's an idea: what about 1p on basic rate to fund Brexit. That would fund 50 billion over 10 years. As the Brexiters are the majority, that would be equitable.....

 

Or, cut the personal allowance by 1,000 quid?

 

I am sure there are smarter people than I who can work out how to fund, say, 50 billion?

Edited September 24, 2017 by Grouse

[Grouse]

15 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You are being quite generous there. From 2015

National Debt Interest (5.0%)

UK Contribution to the EU Budget (0.6%)

 

"Our credit rating affects the interest to be paid..."

 

It does not matter what TM says, the markets will follow the ratings.

People have just got poorer without even realising it.

 

I am generous!

 

It's a Sunday morning, I've got my coffee and the sun has got his hat on! ?

[Grouse]

13 minutes ago, Grouse said:

https://www.ft.com/content/931719d6-9fdc-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5

 

Imagination Technologies sold to Chinese.

 

Note Trump blocked a similar deal in the USA

 

Coming after the sale of ARM holdings, this pretty much kills our semiconductor industry.

 

So another one bites the dust despite May's assurances of building tech.

Of course the Brexiters in Wetherspoons will be really concerned about semiconductors!

 

(Probably think these are the people who will replace guards on trains!)

[sandyf]

12 hours ago, mommysboy said:

I'm inclined to go with the logic you present so well.

 

There is the line of argument that some members enjoy single market status but are not EU members, so the two are not completely intertwined.

On the basis that TM is proposing a transition period as opposed to an extension of Art 50 we must take it as read that the EU treaties will cease to apply on 29th March 2019.

This raises a big question mark over how she would envisage remaining in the single market during any transition period, EEA = Single Market. As usual very little detail on the proposal. 

[sandyf]

29 minutes ago, Grouse said:

https://www.ft.com/content/931719d6-9fdc-11e7-9a86-4d5a475ba4c5

 

Imagination Technologies sold to Chinese.

 

Note Trump blocked a similar deal in the USA

 

Coming after the sale of ARM holdings, this pretty much kills our semiconductor industry.

 

So another one bites the dust despite May's assurances of building tech.

Its a downhill slide. The new location for the EMA is to be announced next month, probably Amsterdam, and then the pharmaceuticals will be looking to relocate.

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

After a fouled up election and two floppy back-to-back speeches to the world and Europe, Mrs May has either lost any iota of control that she had, or more likely she is just throwing it away! So I fear that you may be correct. Is she James May's elder sister? Oh cock!

 

She's had her arm twisted behind the scenes, for sure. The announcememt that we won't be using security co-operation as a bargaining tool (our strongest hand: remember the panic shown by the leading EU goons when she dropped the hint about this a few months ago?) gave the game away. She's been given the 'three line whip' by people higher up the heirarchy to tow the EU line.

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Will there be a transition period?

 

Only time will tell, TM does not always get what she wants.

At the end of the day it is all a legal minefield and there are those in the UK that will be watching to ensure she abides by the letter of the law and where there is ambiguity they will seek clarification. The government lawyers have been proved wrong before.

 

in Italy earlier this week, May suggested a 2 year transitional period

how will that suggestion be taken forward, if at all

 

at a high level EU meeting or is it thrown to the negotiating teams so they can put meat on it?

 

 

government lawyers and wrong;

Yes, I do remember very well the dispute over the necessity to involve the parliament in A50 or not

The PM and her lawyer gang failing in the courts with big bangs, not once but twice

 

she disappointed me quite a lot at those times

I have since wondered many times if she did that on purpose or if she really has such flimsy

grip on what goes and what doesn't within the UK legal system

 

[melvinmelvin]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

That is a fairly valid point. TM is now obviously in favour of the transition period and one of the conditions may be that the UK becomes an EFTA member, even if on a temporary basis.

With only 4 members, EFTA is unlikely to be so problematic as the EU.

 

if something along those lines should substantiate,

wouldn't that remove most of the basis for a transitional period?

 

anyway,

I thought the UK government had expressed rather clearly that they do not favour the EFTA/EEA/EU model.

 

[rockingrobin]

47 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

She's had her arm twisted behind the scenes, for sure. The announcememt that we won't be using security co-operation as a bargaining tool (our strongest hand: remember the panic shown by the leading EU goons when she dropped the hint about this a few months ago?) gave the game away. She's been given the 'three line whip' by people higher up the heirarchy to tow the EU line.

The Ultra hard Brexiteers should be encouraged by the Florence speech, it is laying the foundation for the UK to walk away from the table .

 

What did T.May actually commit to with regard to the phase 1 talks

Nothing on Northern Ireland, the speech was very sparse almost non existent on the Irish issue

EU expats and UK expats, we want to guarantee their rights, Its the same rheteric with no meat on the bones

The framework for the financial comittments via REL wasnt even mentioned

 

Talk of transitional arrangements at this stage is just deflection

 

 

[nontabury]

3 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

She's had her arm twisted behind the scenes, for sure. The announcememt that we won't be using security co-operation as a bargaining tool (our strongest hand: remember the panic shown by the leading EU goons when she dropped the hint about this a few months ago?) gave the game away. She's been given the 'three line whip' by people higher up the heirarchy to tow the EU line.

It reminds me of previous referendums in the Irish Republic,France and Holland.

And we fool ourselves into thinking we live in a democracy.

[Naam]

Quote

Khun Han said:

 

She's had her arm twisted behind the scenes, for sure. The announcememt that we won't be using security co-operation as a bargaining tool (our strongest hand: remember the panic shown by the leading EU goons when she dropped the hint about this a few months ago?) gave the game away. She's been given the 'three line whip' by people higher up the heirarchy to tow the EU line.

not only for Ms. May but also for you the time has come to face reality Sir! fact: any panic of any EU goons existed only in the wet dreams of Brexiteers.

[nontabury]

1 minute ago, Naam said:

not only for Ms. May but also for you the time has come to face reality Sir! fact: any panic of any EU goons existed only in the wet dreams of Brexiteers.

Dictators do not panic. Be they Adolf Hitler or Kim Jong-in. 

What this set back,and yes it is a set back will result in,is that now many Brits will start to have a burning hatred of the E.U and all it stands for. I just hope this will not transfer to the same feelings regarding the people of mainland Europe.

[Grouse]

3 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

in Italy earlier this week, May suggested a 2 year transitional period

how will that suggestion be taken forward, if at all

 

at a high level EU meeting or is it thrown to the negotiating teams so they can put meat on it?

 

 

government lawyers and wrong;

Yes, I do remember very well the dispute over the necessity to involve the parliament in A50 or not

The PM and her lawyer gang failing in the courts with big bangs, not once but twice

 

she disappointed me quite a lot at those times

I have since wondered many times if she did that on purpose or if she really has such flimsy

grip on what goes and what doesn't within the UK legal system

 

2 years? More like 52 years....

[rockingrobin]

10 minutes ago, nontabury said:

Dictators do not panic. Be they Adolf Hitler or Kim Jong-in. 

What this set back,and yes it is a set back will result in,is that now many Brits will start to have a burning hatred of the E.U and all it stands for. I just hope this will not transfer to the same feelings regarding the people of mainland Europe.

If I understand correctly  the UK politicians betray the UK public and somehow it is the fault of the EU

[Grouse]

26 minutes ago, nontabury said:

It reminds me of previous referendums in the Irish Republic,France and Holland.

And we fool ourselves into thinking we live in a democracy.

What are you replying to?