Repeat of 2011 Thai flood disaster ruled out

[Crossy]

1 minute ago, spidermike007 said:

We all feel so much better now that this pseudo government has given us their assurances. Thanks for the vote of confidence. Nothing but truth coming from Bangkok these days. The level of earnestness is always reassuring. Never an agenda. Just pure nobility, and righteousness. 

 

That's some pretty good stuff you're smoking there Mike, got any spare?

 

[spidermike007]

1 minute ago, Crossy said:

 

That's some pretty good stuff you're smoking there Mike, got any spare?

 

 

I have already had my attitude adjusted. It worked. LOL.

[Brunolem]

"Thongplew Kongjun, the department’s deputy director-general, said the rainfall volume this year was much lower than in 2011 and that there was still a lot of capacity in dams, reservoirs and lakes throughout the country. As of yesterday, no reservoirs had water supply above 80 per cent of capacity, compared to near-capacity levels at almost all dams in 2011."

 

Compared to when in 2011?

And this may be true, but only for Bangkok...what about the rest of the country? Do floods don't matter as long as Bangkok is spared?

The fact is that water takes time to reach the rivers after it has fallen as rain.

Rivers should be at their lowest level in May, but in a few weeks, when all the recent rain reaches them, they will be already very high, even though the "regular" rain season has yet to begin.

If precipitations remain as they are now during the coming months, we will see rivers coming out of their beds, and major lasting floods all over the country...

[Rimbuman]

2 hours ago, klauskunkel said:

I have ordered one Plodsaprob

'Plodsaprop' would be more accurate. 

[Ron19]

A quote that has altered another members post has been removed.

This is against forum rules as below.

 

16) You will not make changes to quoted material from other members posts, except for purposes of shortening the quoted post. This cannot be done in such a manner that it alters the context of the original post.

[CGW]

7 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

"Thongplew Kongjun, the department’s deputy director-general, said the rainfall volume this year was much lower than in 2011 and that there was still a lot of capacity in dams, reservoirs and lakes throughout the country. As of yesterday, no reservoirs had water supply above 80 per cent of capacity, compared to near-capacity levels at almost all dams in 2011."

 

Compared to when in 2011?

And this may be true, but only for Bangkok...what about the rest of the country? Do floods don't matter as long as Bangkok is spared?

The fact is that water takes time to reach the rivers after it has fallen as rain.

Rivers should be at their lowest level in May, but in a few weeks, when all the recent rain reaches them, they will be already very high, even though the "regular" rain season has yet to begin.

If precipitations remain as they are now during the coming months, we will see rivers coming out of their beds, and major lasting floods all over the country...

"he" does appear to be distorting the truth a little, only if you use a government website though! http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en

Correct, they have long only cared about Bangkok flooding with no thought for any other area!

[bobmac10]

Despite the reassurance given, I fail to see how the government can give this gurantee

Dam levels are at 80% and it's only beginning June.

If they release water from the dams to prevent them from overflowing, it's still water that has to flow to the sea right?

Add to this the natural water flow from precipitation into same rivers and we start to reach maximum levels.

If it continues to rain, as it could quite easily, then we are in a flood situation. Unless they have some more storage hidden somewhere, it's all got to go via the rivers to the sea. So basically they are saying they know it won't rain  much into the future. How can they say that? Weather is unpredictable and flooding is a part of life in Thsiland.

[The Deerhunter]

3 hours ago, bobmac10 said:

Yes I remember when Yingluck was blamed for the floods in 2011

I wonder if the PM will take the rap if we have a repeat of that situation?

Not a chance.  He has already covered that.  A week or twoi ago he said that early heavy rains were expected but that central governmnent had finished all its flood protection work and now only the local authorities in some areas have not cpompleted their work in preparation for the wet season.  Interesting ly in my local area our local amphur has cleaed out drainand dredged rivers & creeks.  In the Amphur next door there are many streams choked with Hyacinth and on Monday after the heavy rain we drove into town and water 1/2 a metre deep was flowing across the road from one of the uncleared streams I had noted and mentally marked as "wait and see."

 

SO a lot of flooding is self-inflicted by failure to prepare with obvious preventitive action.  Ditto rubbish in drains in Bangkok.  I am guessing that this rubbish would not have been dumped just last weekend.  Is there a Thai translation for preventitive maintenance?    And no, preventitive maintenance is not demonstrateed by trucks carrying wheel chocks to use while refueling.

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, sujoop said:

Also thankfully, last week the current Govt announced they would be doing controlled release of dams in advance of this week's downpours. Thus, due to El Nino departing, a very heavy rainy season 'could' still cause floods but at least we know the current Govt is being pro-active, versus the criminally negligent / purposely non-active Govt in the past.

Also good to note that the current 'government' has paid billions of baht in subsidies to the stroppy Isaan rice farmers already. They didn't make a big thing about it as they didn't want it confused with the nasty, populist habit of regular, elected  politicians paying billions of baht in subsidies to the stroppy Isaan rice farmers.

 

Back on topic (nominally), as I recall, the 2011 flooding was exacerbated by the remnants of 2 or 3 tropical disturbances that after beating the bejezus out of Vietnam and South China, dumped prolonged rain on the highlands of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar as the low pressure dissipated. There's the option of releasing too much water too early and not having enough for the third rice planting season (that they have already paid the farmers for) or holding onto too much and getting hit by abnormal, late season weather patterns.

 

Whether the current junta is being proactive or simply "winging it"  like their predecessors is still a point of conjecture.

[mtls2005]

Dam levels are at 80% and it's only beginning June.

 

Are you certain? Not seeing any dam at/over 80%. Srinakarin is the largest dam, and is currently at 71%. I think that drains to Samut Songkhram? Some small dams are in the high 70's.

 

Not saying it might not be an issue in Sep-Nov? Or that there is some luck involved in managing outflows. Whatever happens, it won't be the fault of the Junta, of that we can be certain. 

 

http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en

[sujoop]

1 hour ago, sujoop said:

2011: I ordered a delay in the release of water from dam : Theera

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut yesterday acknowledged that the controversial decision to delay the release of water from the country's major dams had been made by the government.. “I admit ordering a delay in the release of water into the plains areas so that farmers could harvest their crops first,” he said.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/aec/30169695

Again, at least in 2017 the Govt isn't ordering to NOT drain dams.

Whether one is or is not a fan of either Govt isn't relevant in this matter.

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Also good to note that the current 'government' has paid billions of baht in subsidies to the stroppy Isaan rice farmers already. They didn't make a big thing about it as they didn't want it confused with the nasty, populist habit of regular, elected  politicians paying billions of baht in subsidies to the stroppy Isaan rice farmers.

 

Back on topic (nominally), as I recall, the 2011 flooding was exacerbated by the remnants of 2 or 3 tropical disturbances that after beating the bejezus out of Vietnam and South China, dumped prolonged rain on the highlands of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar as the low pressure dissipated. There's the option of releasing too much water too early and not having enough for the third rice planting season (that they have already paid the farmers for) or holding onto too much and getting hit by abnormal, late season weather patterns.

 

Whether the current junta is being proactive or simply "winging it"  like their predecessors is still a point of conjecture.

Well...I can tell you that these subsidies haven't reached the Sisaket-Ubon area yet!

As far as I know, subsidies were cancelled in 2015 and since then the price of the rice has fallen by more than 50%.

In order to, very partially, compensate for this loss of income, the government has offered 0% interest loans, of negligible amount (3,000 baht)  and that's about it.

As for the "already paid third rice planting"...again, not around here.

Not only no rice has been prepaid, but you can forget about a second rice harvest, let alone a third one.

In these flatlands, there is no irragation, thus the rice is generally planted in June to be harvested in November, just when the dry season starts...

[superal]

27 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

"Thongplew Kongjun, the department’s deputy director-general, said the rainfall volume this year was much lower than in 2011 and that there was still a lot of capacity in dams, reservoirs and lakes throughout the country. As of yesterday, no reservoirs had water supply above 80 per cent of capacity, compared to near-capacity levels at almost all dams in 2011."

 

Compared to when in 2011?

And this may be true, but only for Bangkok...what about the rest of the country? Do floods don't matter as long as Bangkok is spared?

The fact is that water takes time to reach the rivers after it has fallen as rain.

Rivers should be at their lowest level in May, but in a few weeks, when all the recent rain reaches them, they will be already very high, even though the "regular" rain season has yet to begin.

If precipitations remain as they are now during the coming months, we will see rivers coming out of their beds, and major lasting floods all over the country...

Exactly my thoughts . Have had rain up here in the north east for a couple of months and heavy recently , so its really a no brainer that with the rainy season just starting and if its an average rainy season there will be floods without any doubts given the current levels of reservoirs  . Am I right in saying that last year there were water shortages and some reservoirs were at their lowest for many a year also Songkran festivities were limited in some areas ?   From one extreme to another in a short time .   

[simoh1490]

24 minutes ago, bobmac10 said:

Despite the reassurance given, I fail to see how the government can give this gurantee

Dam levels are at 80% and it's only beginning June.

If they release water from the dams to prevent them from overflowing, it's still water that has to flow to the sea right?

Add to this the natural water flow from precipitation into same rivers and we start to reach maximum levels.

If it continues to rain, as it could quite easily, then we are in a flood situation. Unless they have some more storage hidden somewhere, it's all got to go via the rivers to the sea. So basically they are saying they know it won't rain  much into the future. How can they say that? Weather is unpredictable and flooding is a part of life in Thsiland.

Not even close to being true!

 

No reservoir in Thailand is even close to 80% capacity, average capacity is at 54% whilst average useable capacity ios at 21%.

 

http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en

[Brunolem]

8 minutes ago, superal said:

Exactly my thoughts . Have had rain up here in the north east for a couple of months and heavy recently , so its really a no brainer that with the rainy season just starting and if its an average rainy season there will be floods without any doubts given the current levels of reservoirs  . Am I right in saying that last year there were water shortages and some reservoirs were at their lowest for many a year also Songkran festivities were limited in some areas ?   From one extreme to another in a short time .   

Indeed last year, a large part of the country suffered from drought, thanks to El Nino.

It seems that we may be catching up this year and may get a double rain season for the price of one!

[Konaboy1]

only God knows. Not the Government

[Bluespunk]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Repeat of 2011 flood disaster ruled out

Now, where did I put the inflatable dingy...

[robblok]

20 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Dam levels are at 80% and it's only beginning June.

 

Are you certain? Not seeing any dam at/over 80%. Srinakarin is the largest dam, and is currently at 71%. I think that drains to Samut Songkhram? Some small dams are in the high 70's.

 

Not saying it might not be an issue in Sep-Nov? Or that there is some luck involved in managing outflows. Whatever happens, it won't be the fault of the Junta, of that we can be certain. 

 

http://www.thaiwater.net/DATA/REPORT/php/rid_dam_1.php?lang=en

are you sure your looking correctly.. maybe I am blind (it happens) but i see 49%

[robblok]

1 minute ago, Bluespunk said:

Now, where did I put the inflatable dingy...

I bought a wading suit after 2011.. i still got it.. hope i dont have to use it.

[Crossy]

1 minute ago, robblok said:

I bought a wading suit after 2011.. i still got it.. hope i dont have to use it.

 

I think our boat has got plants growing in it

 

[leftorright]

1 hour ago, sujoop said:

Unlike in 2011 at least the Govt isn't ordering the dams to NOT release water:
 

2011: I ordered a delay in the release of water from dam : Theera

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut yesterday acknowledged that the controversial decision to delay the release of water from the country's major dams had been made by the government.. “I admit ordering a delay in the release of water into the plains areas so that farmers could harvest their crops first,” he said.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/aec/30169695

 

Related: Thailand: Crisis in Thai Rice Pledging Scheme

The Thai government, led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, implemented the rice pledging scheme immediately after the 2011 election

http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/thailand-crisis-in-thai-rice-pledging-scheme/

 

Thankfully, there's no rice scheme/scam 'priority' this year either, thus no reason to purposely order dams NOT to do preventative controlled draining. Also thankfully, last week the current Govt announced they would be doing controlled release of dams in advance of this week's downpours. Thus, due to El Nino departing, a very heavy rainy season 'could' still cause floods but at least we know the current Govt is being pro-active, versus the criminally negligent / purposely non-active Govt in the past.

 

 

An interesting question is exactly when he issued that order. Theera (Chartthaipattana Party) was minister of Agriculture in both the Abhisit and the Yingluck cabinets. Yingluck’s cabinet was sworn in on August 10, 2011. The floods started to develop at the end of August, early September. The dams obviously were opened quite soon into Yingluck’s watch, but when was that – in hindsight – fatal order made for the dams to hold water: before August 10 still under Abhisit’s watch, or after August 10 under Yingluck’s?

 

[Bluespunk]

8 minutes ago, robblok said:

I bought a wading suit after 2011.. i still got it.. hope i dont have to use it.

Hmm, that reminds me. Where is that wet suit...

[AGareth2]

6 minutes ago, leftorright said:

fatal order made for the dams to hold water: before August 10 still under Abhisit’s watch, or after August 10 under Yingluck’s?

depends which shirt you wear

[Lupatria]

False or true? (note this is not a multiple choice question)

 

a. thai-flood-disaster-ruled-out

b. general-election-in-2018-ruled-out

[williamgeorgeallen]

4 hours ago, bobmac10 said:

Yes I remember when Yingluck was blamed for the floods in 2011

I wonder if the PM will take the rap if we have a repeat of that situation?

one would hope they have given themselves immunity for any natural disasters.

[sujoop]

7 minutes ago, leftorright said:

2 hours ago, sujoop said:

Unlike in 2011 at least the Govt isn't ordering the dams to NOT release water:
 

2011: I ordered a delay in the release of water from dam : Theera

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut yesterday acknowledged that the controversial decision to delay the release of water from the country's major dams had been made by the government.. “I admit ordering a delay in the release of water into the plains areas so that farmers could harvest their crops first,” he said.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/aec/30169695

 

Related: Thailand: Crisis in Thai Rice Pledging Scheme

The Thai government, led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, implemented the rice pledging scheme immediately after the 2011 election

http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/thailand-crisis-in-thai-rice-pledging-scheme/

 

Thankfully, there's no rice scheme/scam 'priority' this year either, thus no reason to purposely order dams NOT to do preventative controlled draining. Also thankfully, last week the current Govt announced they would be doing controlled release of dams in advance of this week's downpours. Thus, due to El Nino departing, a very heavy rainy season 'could' still cause floods but at least we know the current Govt is being pro-active, versus the criminally negligent / purposely non-active Govt in the past.

 

 

An interesting question is exactly when he issued that order. Theera (Chartthaipattana Party) was minister of Agriculture in both the Abhisit and the Yingluck cabinets. Yingluck’s cabinet was sworn in on August 10, 2011. The floods started to develop at the end of August, early September. The dams obviously were opened quite soon into Yingluck’s watch, but when was that – in hindsight – fatal order made for the dams to hold water: before August 10 still under Abhisit’s watch, or after August 10 under Yingluck’s?

Yingluck's 'thrown under the bus' Agri Minister clearly states he ordered dams NOT to release water in 2011. This was in effect from handover as they wanted the Rice scheme/scam to kick off more than they were interested about or thinking about floods (ie: as the Minister states, they did not want to release water which would wipe out the additional rice crop - which the Abhisit Govt had advised against planting). And yes the dams were rising rapidly due to previously unusually heavy rain storms so it was imperative that the dams release, NOT ordered shut. Unfortunately the dams kept rising of course and even more storms came and finally in Oct the Yingluck Govt had no choice but to order the dams to drain into already overflowing rivers or the dams themselves may have suffered structural collapse.

[smutcakes]

7 minutes ago, sujoop said:

Yingluck's 'thrown under the bus' Agri Minister clearly states he ordered dams NOT to release water in 2011. This was in effect from handover as they wanted the Rice scheme/scam to kick off more than they were interested about or thinking about floods (ie: as the Minister states, they did not want to release water which would wipe out the additional rice crop - which the Abhisit Govt had advised against planting). And yes the dams were rising rapidly due to previously unusually heavy rain storms so it was imperative that the dams release, NOT ordered shut. Unfortunately the dams kept rising of course and even more storms came and finally in Oct the Yingluck Govt had no choice but to order the dams to drain into already overflowing rivers or the dams themselves may have suffered structural collapse.

I thought the allegation was that the main beneficiary/person who ordered the delay in release of water was those seeking additional rice crops in an area controlled by Banharn the leader of the Charthaipattana party, the very same party who controlled the Agri Ministry who you claimed Minister was thrown under the bus by Yingluck?

[sujoop]

49 minutes ago, sujoop said:

1 hour ago, leftorright said:

3 hours ago, sujoop said:

Unlike in 2011 at least the Govt isn't ordering the dams to NOT release water:
 

2011: I ordered a delay in the release of water from dam : Theera

Agriculture Minister Theera Wongsamut yesterday acknowledged that the controversial decision to delay the release of water from the country's major dams had been made by the government.. “I admit ordering a delay in the release of water into the plains areas so that farmers could harvest their crops first,” he said.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/aec/30169695

 

Related: Thailand: Crisis in Thai Rice Pledging Scheme

The Thai government, led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, implemented the rice pledging scheme immediately after the 2011 election

http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/thailand-crisis-in-thai-rice-pledging-scheme/

 

Thankfully, there's no rice scheme/scam 'priority' this year either, thus no reason to purposely order dams NOT to do preventative controlled draining. Also thankfully, last week the current Govt announced they would be doing controlled release of dams in advance of this week's downpours. Thus, due to El Nino departing, a very heavy rainy season 'could' still cause floods but at least we know the current Govt is being pro-active, versus the criminally negligent / purposely non-active Govt in the past.

 

 

An interesting question is exactly when he issued that order. Theera (Chartthaipattana Party) was minister of Agriculture in both the Abhisit and the Yingluck cabinets. Yingluck’s cabinet was sworn in on August 10, 2011. The floods started to develop at the end of August, early September. The dams obviously were opened quite soon into Yingluck’s watch, but when was that – in hindsight – fatal order made for the dams to hold water: before August 10 still under Abhisit’s watch, or after August 10 under Yingluck’s?

Yingluck's 'thrown under the bus' Agri Minister clearly states he ordered dams NOT to release water in 2011. This was in effect from handover as they wanted the Rice scheme/scam to kick off more than they were interested about or thinking about floods (ie: as the Minister states, they did not want to release water which would wipe out the additional rice crop - which the Abhisit Govt had advised against planting). And yes the dams were rising rapidly due to previously unusually heavy rain storms so it was imperative that the dams release, NOT ordered shut. Unfortunately the dams kept rising of course and even more storms came and finally in Oct the Yingluck Govt had no choice but to order the dams to drain into already overflowing rivers or the dams themselves may have suffered structural collapse.

 

39 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

I thought the allegation was that the main beneficiary/person who ordered the delay in release of water was those seeking additional rice crops in an area controlled by Banharn the leader of the Charthaipattana party, the very same party who controlled the Agri Ministry who you claimed Minister was thrown under the bus by Yingluck?

As you wish however, only 1 of those Govt's had a TOP priority  of kicking off the rice scam/scheme and the reason given by Yingluck Govt  for ordering dams shut was to get that off-season crop (which Abihist advised against) in Sept/Oct to kick off the rice scheme.

The other TOP priority for the Yingluck Govt even in the midst of massive floods (or some might say 'under the radar' of massive floods) was getting amnesty for big bro:
 

16 NOVEMBER 2011
Thai cabinet 'endorses Thaksin amnesty plan'
"Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was not present at the meeting and all officials were asked to leave the room when the issue was deliberated"
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2011/11/2011111672939589176.html

Note Yingluck was always absent despite heading both the rice scheme and flood control committees and being PM when cabinet passed amnesty for big bro when much of Thailand was under water. So whether Yingluck & her Govt dropped the ball or were willfully distracted you decide.

[smutcakes]

2 minutes ago, sujoop said:

Note Yingluck was always absent despite heading both the rice scheme and flood control committees and being PM when cabinet passed amnesty for big bro when much of Thailand was under water. So whether Yingluck & her Govt dropped the ball or were willfully distracted you decide.

I thought the flood was in 2011 and the Coup in 2014? which amnesty was passed in 2011. Sorry i am very confused.

 

Is your Ginjag login banned?

Edited May 31, 2017 by smutcakes

[FredNL]

Somchai, the fortune teller has spoken.